基于Logit 模型的世界主要作物播种面积变化模拟

农作物播种面积动态变化因其重要性已经引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。从“人-地 关系”中人的角度出发, 利用多元Logit 模型初步建立了全球尺度的农作物播种面积变化模 拟系统, 分析研究了未来30 年内世界主要农作物播种面积变化的数量特征和空间格局。模型建立思路是: 作物播种面积变化是农户作物选择行为的直接结果, 而选择何种作物进行播种是由作物效用决定的。因此, 利用离散选择理论, 选择影响作物效用大小的主要解释变量建立效用函数, 动态模拟农户作物选择行为, 并得到这种选择行为所带来的农作物播种面积变 化的时空特征。模型建立后, 利用联合国粮农组织(FAO) 2001-2003 年统计数据和2001 年MODIS 全球土地覆盖数据产品对模型结果进行验证, 结果表明模型运行可靠, 和实际状况吻合较好, 可以应用于未来情景模拟分析。其后, 以5 年为步长, 模型对世界四大作物(水稻、玉米、小麦和大豆) 在2005-2035 年间的播种面积动态变化进行了模拟, 从全球作物总播种面 积变化差异、四大作物播种面积变化的区域差异和不同区域内四大作物播种面积变化差异等方面进行了分析研究, 结果表明: 不同作物播种面积变化的数量特征和空间格局是不相同的。 虽然目前模型还存在一些不确定性, 但仍然能够在一定程度上为理解现在和未来农业土地利用的复杂动态变化提供帮助, 模拟结果可为有关部门提供决策支持和信息服务。     

基于RS和GIS的土地生产力与人口承载量──以向家坝库区为例

本文在分析土地生产力与承载力研究现状的基础上 ,以向家坝库区耕地为研究对象 ,根据库区经济地理现状 ,确定土地人口载量研究区域 ,并利用GIS和RS技术对研究区土地利用现状和地形地貌特点进行深入分析 ,建立“空间·属性一体化”数据库。本文还建立了土地资源人口承载量评价指标体系 ,利用潜力递减法 ,进行以村级为单位的耕地粮食综合村尺度的近期和远景 (2 0 12 )土地人口承载量研究 ,提出与当地农业发展相一致的整个研究区环境容量。结果表明 ,与其它耕作方式相比 ,复种耕种可获得更大的人口承载量 ;库区环境容量已趋饱和 ,而且未来库区土地承载力呈下降趋势 ;通过改良品种、扩大水稻播种面积可在一定程度上缓解地矛盾。     

Exploring the potential of perennial crops in reducing soil erosion: A GIS-based scenario analysis in southern Tuscany,Italy

Preserving soils is a major challenge in ensuring sustainable agriculture for the future. Soil erosion by water is a critical issue in the Mediterranean regions and usually occurs when high-erosive precipitation is in temporal association with poor vegetation cover and density. Modelling soil erosion risks over large spatial scales suffers from the scarcity of accurate information on land cover, rainfall erosivity and their intra-annual dynamics. We estimated the soil erosion risk on arable land in a Mediterranean area (Grosseto Province, southern Tuscany, Italy) and investigated its potential reduction as a response to the change in intra-annual distribution of land cover due to the increase of perennial forage crops. A GIS-based (R)USLE model was employed and a scenario analysis was performed by setting criteria for raising the performance of perennial forage crops. Statistical data on agricultural crops provided an insight into current intra-annual land cover dynamics. Rainfall erosivity was computed on the basis of 22-year hourly precipitation data. The model was used to: i) quantify the potential soil losses of arable land in the study area, ii) identify those areas highly affected by erosion risks iii) explore the potential for soil conservation of perennial crops, thereby enabling appropriate preventive measures to be identified. The erosion rates, averaged over an area of about 140’000 ha, are estimated to 33.42 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. More than 59% of the study area was subjected to soil losses higher than 11 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ (from moderate to severe erosion) and the highest rates are estimated for steep inland areas. Arable land with severe soil erosion rates (higher than 33 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) represent about 35% of the whole study area. The risk of soil loss by water erosion in the study area is estimated to be reduced on average by 36% if perennial crops are increased in terms of 35% of the total arable land. The soil erosion data produced compared well with the published local and regional data. This study thus provides useful preliminary information for landscape planning authorities and can be used as a decision support tool in quantifying the implications of management policies.     

Modelling the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) in Europe

This paper presents a modelling approach for the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in European Union of 28 Member State (EU-28). The land-use modelling platform (LUMP) was used in order to simulate the land-use changes from 2010 to 2050. Within the LUMP, the land demand for these lignocellulosic energy crops was derived from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis model. Suitability maps were generated for two main energy crop groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops, using multicriteria analysis techniques. Biophysical factors (climate, soil properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis determined the most influential factors to be temperature, precipitation, length of growing period and number of frost-free days. The results of the modelling exercise in the LUMP reflect the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated to be between 2.3 EJ/year (in 2020) and 6.3 EJ/year (in 2050), accounting for 2.3% and 9.6% of total energy consumption in the EU-28. The results of the allocation were aggregated at regional level to analyse trends. Regions with considerably high demand were identified in Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.     

The Nichols' Relief Model of the United States

Abstract

The agricultural system in West Pakistan is largely subsistence-oriented, and extensive areas are devoted to produce the low-value crops. Only a small portion of the total cropped area is used to raise cash crops. However, there are regional differences in cropland use in the province. The study focuses on regional variations in the cropping patterns in West Pakistan by establishing the crop combination areas. The crop combination areas also point out a land-use distinction between the areas. Also, the changes in some of the important crops in terms of their land occupancy in the area during the fifteen-year period have been analyzed.     

Converting Brazil's pastures to cropland: An alternative way to meet sugarcane demand and to spare forestlands

Brazil seeks to rapidly increase its agricultural production to meet future demands, especially for sugarcane, which is an agricultural commodity and a biofuel source. In this paper, we explore how to achieve this increase without compromising existing forestlands. We propose that it is possible to substantially expand sugarcane production in Brazil while avoiding further environmental losses and the indirect land use changes often associated with them, such as deforestation. This task could be accomplished by converting existing pasturelands with agricultural potential into cropland. A great deal of pastureland exists in Brazil. Thus, we addressed the following questions in this study: (1) where are the most suitable pasturelands for sugarcane located geographically and (2) what potential do these pasturelands have for sugarcane production regarding their physical suitability and other significant factors, such as infrastructure availability and socioeconomic factors. We conducted a land suitability analysis using a spatial location model based on multicriteria decision-making and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify the cultivated pasturelands most suitable for conversion to sugarcane production in Brazil. “What if” scenarios were built to determine how changes in the subjectively derived weights of the priority criteria would modify the spatial distribution of the suitability classes relative to the MCDA model and demonstrate the robustness of the crop suitability assessment. The most suitable pastureland areas for conversion to sugarcane production were predominantly located in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Pará. These zones have large contiguous areas of pasture with moderate and high agricultural potentials for sugarcane production. The total estimated area of cultivated pasturelands with moderate or high suitability for sugarcane production was 50 million hectares, which is much larger than the area currently used for sugarcane production in Brazil.     

Global and local policy forces for landscape perennialization in central North American agriculture

Farm production practices often focus on mitigating negative consequences of cropping – particularly annual crops like corn, cereals and oilseeds. Some of North America’s most-intensive farmlands are rapidly converting their remaining perennial cover to annual crops. While perennial cover like woodlands, grasslands and wetlands are valued for the many landscape services they provide, they are vulnerable to conversion to other cover types under drivers of landscape change. Conversions within farms constitute nuances rather than new land uses, yet landscape composition effects can be substantial when considering habitat, biodiversity, soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, and aesthetics. As the farm landscape becomes increasingly dominated by annual crop vegetation, the key drivers behind land cover types and management merit critical examination. This paper reviews recent studies on farmland composition and management in central Canada and the United States, identifying trajectories and magnitudes of landscape changes. To consider forces, both speculative examination of policies and information from farmer interviews help identify motivations for changes in perennial or annual proportions of farm landscapes. The paper concludes with forces that increase perennialization and existing or prospective pathways to improve the balance between annual and perennial vegetation.     

民勤绿洲地区土地资源结构及其合理利用

对干旱区内陆河流域下游具代表性的民勤绿洲地区土地资源结构进行了系统研究分析,得出了民勤绿洲各级各类土地资源的数量。就限制绿洲土地生产潜力的因素及强度进行了研究,其中水分限制占30.87%,土质限制占25.74%,盐碱限制占15.96%,肥力限制占8.96%。最后就土地资源结构与土地利用的合理匹配问题提出了两点建议:一是要加强农业部门结构和地域结构的优化调整;二是搞好水土资源结构平衡。     

Progressive landscape fragmentation in relation to cash crop cultivation

Cash crop cultivation has been a critical driver of land use change in many countries around the world. However, few efforts have been made to quantify the relationships between cash crop expansion and the subsequent landscape pattern changes. This paper characterized the process of cash crop expansion across Tiaoxi watershed (China) from 1985 to 2009 using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remotely sensed imageries. Correlations were identified between indicators of cash crop expansion (total area and total production of cash crops) and a family of landscape fragmentation metrics (patch density, edge density, landscape division index, effective mesh size, splitting index, Shannon's diversity index, and aggregation index). Results showed that Tiaoxi watershed experienced profound cash crop expansion and progressive landscape fragmentation. The cash crops spread in accessible and productive areas at the expense of paddy and forests. Social drivers of cash crop expansion included population growth, labor structure changes and market incentives. Indicators of cash crop expansion presented linear relationships with landscape fragmentation metrics. These findings evidenced that cash crop cultivation would significantly fragment landscapes. Our study contributed to understanding on the enlarging cultivation of cash crops and the associated modifications of landscape patterns in subtropical regions.     

黄河流域城市群扩张的时空格局演化及情景模拟——以呼包鄂榆城市群为例

黄河流域城镇扩张对区域景观格局影响显著,城市群人口聚集与增长引发了流域“人-地”矛盾和“空间冲突”等一系列生态环境问题。基于土地利用数据和FLUS模型对2025年和2035年呼包鄂榆城市群城镇化与土地利用时空演化特征进行多情景模拟预测。结果表明：① 1990—2018年呼包鄂榆城市群整体发展水平较低,建设用地面积经历了“平稳增加-缓慢增加-急剧增加”的变化过程,区域总体以草地为主,其占土地总面积的50%以上,其次是未利用土地和耕地,林地和建设用地次之。② 城市群扩张最剧烈地区在空间上主要发生在呼和浩特市、包头市等城市主城区,且扩张模式以外延式扩张为主,扩张来源主要是耕地、草地等生态用地。③ 三种情景模拟发现,2025年和2035年区域土地利用变化的空间结构和特征差异明显。自然发展情景下,城市扩张不受约束,高速增长占据了大量生态用地;加入生态约束条件很好的控制了对草地和林地的占用;经济发展情景下,城市扩张将进一步占据更多的未利用土地和耕地。本研究通过城市群扩张时空格局演化及情景模拟分析,尝试为区域规划、城市空间规划和区域生态空间保护提供多角度、多情景和可选择的政策决策参考。     

Exploring the future of rural–urban connections in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling urban expansion and its impact on food production in the Addis Ababa region

Abstract

The built-up area of Addis Ababa and its surrounding towns is expanding into the peri-urban region leading to high losses of farmland, directly influencing the food production for the urban population. This paper investigates the patterns of settlement growth in the region surrounding Addis Ababa and their impact on peri-urban agriculture using an urban spatial scenario design model. The effects of two population density scenarios are explored within the framework of a proposed master plan. The model output was used to estimate areas of different suitability levels that would be lost to the modelled settlement expansion. The settlement area in 2038 would represent 29% of the case study’s total area in the low-density scenario but only 19% in the high-density scenario. Compared to the low-density scenario, the high-density scenario would only require a third of the agricultural land transformed into settlement areas. Settlement development would contribute to higher losses of land suitable for cultivating important export products, high nutritional value and import-substituting products. The scenario approach can support sustainable regional planning for settlement expansion that conserves valuable farmland in the peri-urban area and contributes to building capacity for strategic planning of the city regions of sub-Saharan Africa.     

作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性,亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元（陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区）为研究对象,运用全球生态区模型（GAEZ）分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势,探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异,辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素,结果显示：（1） 1980—2015年间,陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×10⁴ t,小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×10⁴ t。（2） 关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大,陕北高原次之,秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小;陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势,关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小;关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势,陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。（3） 土地利用变化呈现减产效应,这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著,其次为陕北高原;气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加,使小麦生产潜力下降;气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同,在陕北高原表现为增产效应,在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。（4） 在陕北高原,气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因,气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素;在关中盆地,作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响,小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大,以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响;在秦巴山区,土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因,而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。     

云南澜沧江流域热区资源开发及热作基地建设研究

本文通过对澜沧江流域热区资源的分析，认为该区种植热带橡胶、香料、咖啡、南药、热果、发展甘蔗、茶叶、建立各种热作基地是开发利用热区资源的主要途径；热作布局应在立体布局和地域布局基础上形成大分散、小集中的专业化布局；热区开发应采取相应的措施和特殊政策。     

Future urban growth and agricultural land in Ontario

The conversion of agricultural land to urban uses has been a point of concern for some years. Despite numerous empirical analyses, the impacts of such conversions on agriculture remain a subject of debate. This paper takes estimates of future rural to urban land conversion in Ontario for the period of 1976–2001 and evaluates implications of these in terms of the land resource for agriculture. Data on crop yields allow some assessment of the loss of provincial productive potential due to the estimated land conversions. Results indicate that while the greatest conversion will occur at the expense of land with a high capability for agriculture, the proportion converted is small relative to the total land resource.     

Changes in crop type distribution in Zhangye City of the Heihe River Basin,China

With rapid economic development in China, crops have undergone remarkable changes in both their type and spatial pattern. Timely and accurate information of crop type distribution will help government and agricultural producers quickly understand regional agricultural production conditions to better facilitate appropriate adjustments in planting patterns and policies. Another benefit of acquiring such knowledge of crops is that it should enhance regional agricultural competitiveness, optimize resource allocations, and further guarantee national food security. Towards this end, and using the Zhangye City in the Heihe River Basin as a study area, the present research elaborated upon a methodology to classify crop type distribution based on multi-temporal Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (TM/ETM+) images. Using this methodology we achieved the spatial distributions of crop types in Zhangye City in 2007 and 2012, and analyzed changes in their distributions over this period. In addition, some landscape indices were calculated to clarify the landscape pattern of crops. The crop conversion potentials in 2017 were modeled using four conversion sub-models of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. Generally, the overall accuracy of crop classification in Zhangye was high, at 89.38%. From 2007 to 2012, the cultivated land area in Zhangye increased from 463.81 × 10³ ha to 493.89 × 10³ ha. The sowing area of corn and oilseed rape increased by 39.21 × 10³ ha and 5.99 × 10³ ha, respectively, while for wheat and barley the sowing area decreased by 3.61 × 10³ ha and 9.14 × 10³ ha, respectively. Considering other crop types as a group, their sowing area decreased by only 2.37 × 10³ ha. The increase in corn sowing area mainly came from the conversion of other crops to corn, which accounted for 43.09% of its total sowing area in 2012. Furthermore, corn and oilseed rape showed a tendency of intensive sowing, whereas for wheat and barley the tendency was towards scattered sowing. For the future, corn has high conversion potential in Linze and Gaotai counties of Zhangye, while wheat, barley and oilseed rape have high conversion potentials in Minle and Shandan counties.     

Assessing potential land suitable for surface irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia

Although Ethiopia has abundant land for irrigation, only a fraction of its potential land is being utilized. This study evaluates suitability of lands for irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques in order to enhance the country's agricultural industry. Key factors that significantly affect irrigation suitability evaluated in this study include physical land features (land use, soil, and slope), climate (rainfall and evapotranspiration), and market access (proximity to roads and access to market). These factors were weighted using a pair-wise comparison matrix, then reclassified and overlaid to identify suitable areas for groundwater irrigation using a 1-km grid. Groundwater data from the British Geological Survey were used to estimate the groundwater potential, which indicates the corresponding irrigation potential for major crops. Results indicated that more than 6 million ha of land are suitable for irrigation in Ethiopia. A large portion of the irrigable land is located in the Abbay, Rift Valley, Omo Ghibe, and Awash River basins. These basins have access to shallow groundwater (i.e., depth of groundwater less than 20 m from the surface) making it easier to extract. The comparison between available groundwater and total crop water requirements indicate that groundwater alone may not be sufficient to supply all suitable land. The study estimates that only 8% of the suitable land can be irrigated with the available shallow groundwater. However, groundwater is a viable option for supplementing surface water resources for irrigation in several basins in the country.     

河南省小麦生产的区域差异及其对农用地分等的影响

河南是农业大省,粮食产量居全国首位,但全省粮食产量区域差异比较明显,豫东平原、豫北山前平原、南阳盆地为主要产粮区,而西部山区粮食生产力低下。农用地质量的优劣直接决定着粮食产量的高低,而作物的生产潜力和现实生产力影响着农用地质量的好坏。一般来说,作物生产潜力空间分布具有明显的南北纬度地带渐变规律,现实生产力则是在土地的自然属性融入社会经济因素而导致的土地投入和利用上的差异。文章以小麦为例,主要从潜在生产力和现实生产力2个方面阐述了造成小麦产量区域差异的原因并分析了它们对农用地分等产生的影响。     

Qualitative satellite image analysis: Mapping spatial distribution of farming types in Ethiopia

Satellite images have enormous potential for qualitative land use analysis. This paper presents empirical results that demonstrate how normally invisible dimensions produced by land use can be identified by enriching satellite data with qualitative information from field studies.Land use can be defined as the intentional use of a specific piece of land resulting in patterns of ecological responses that are visible in the land cover and landscape. Responses to land use often result in a heterogeneous combination of reflectance in satellite images. Statistical methods used in the classification of satellite imagery are limited in their capacity to handle categories consisting of heterogeneous combinations of spectral values. To overcome this limitation, a contextual post-classification method has been used to map land cover configurations as related to different agricultural practices in the district of Sodo, Ethiopia.The results show that it is possible to map socio-spatial distribution of different agricultural and socioeconomic practices on a regional level by combining field observations and spatial contextual information. The empirical findings show local agricultural activity variations in cash crop production and subsistence agriculture in the Sodo district of Ethiopia.     

内蒙古高原浑善达克沙地区土地利用与覆被变化及退化趋势

浑善达克沙地及其周边地区是我国北方沙尘暴多发区之一,该区的土地利用与覆被变化反映了一系列的环境与社会经济问题。基于卫星遥感信息和空间数据处理技术,并结合地面实地调查资料、气象观测和社会经济数据,得出了20世纪80年代末至90年代末这一地区土地利用与覆被变化情况。结果表明:耕地、建设用地和未利用地明显增加,草地和水域减少,变化面积最大的是草地,有944.42 km2的草地转变为其他用地类型;从变化速率来看,最快的是建设用地,增加了19.8%,其次是耕地,增加10.2%。土地利用转变的主要类型是草地向耕地和未利用地的转变,及耕地向建设用地的转变;呈退化趋势的土地面积近3倍于恢复土地面积。就土地利用与覆被变化的社会经济背景进行了深入分析。     

区域土地利用转型与土地整理

目前,我国城市土地利用结构远未达到优化的水平,农业土地利用的规模不经济等土地利用问题都可通过土地整理加以解决,我国未来土地管理的任务会更多的在"土地整理"方面。我国土地整理的根本任务是形成合理、高效、集约的土地利用结构,增加有效耕地面积,提高土地利用效率,适应社会经济发展对土地的需求。我国地域辽阔,社会经济发展程度存在明显的区域差异,正是因为社会经济发展程度的这种区域差异,它将导致在同一时段内含有不同的土地利用转型阶段。大多数区域的土地利用形态都要经历一些发展阶段,即经过一段时期的持续变化后,直至与其它类型之间达到一个新的平衡。因此,有关部门在制定有关土地整理的目标、模式及政策的过程中,也要充分考虑待整理区所处的土地利用转型阶段,因为在通常情况下这些阶段是区域发展进程中必须要经历的。然而,通过实施土地整理,调整用地结构,可加快社会经济的发展,促使区域土地利用转型阶段的转变,同时它也会向土地整理提出新的更高层次的要求,以实现土地资源的可持续利用。