Increases in fire risk due to warmer summer temperatures and wildland urban interface changes do not necessarily lead to more fires

Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km² and 289 km², respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future.     

Assessing the lightning-caused forest fire risks through the use of the GIS-oriented technology

The technology that has been developed for real-time analysis of the lightning-caused forest fire risks is discussed. Comparative estimates of the number and areas of such fires are obtained for Russia’s regions. The zone of localization of lightning-caused fires is identified through the use of the GIS capabilities.     

Estimating the spatial pattern of human-caused forest fires using a generalized linear mixed model with spatial autocorrelation in South Korea

Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests.     

The environmental envelope of fires in the Colombian Caribbean

Fire is an important disturbance agent for terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions where its occurrence is controlled by multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables. We assessed the temporal and spatial patterns of active fire detections (MODIS product MCD14ML) in the Caribbean region of Colombia between 2003 and 2015, using time series, cross-correlation, hot spot and density techniques. We also assessed the environmental envelope of active fires by evaluating the effect of multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables on fire presence/absence using generalized linear models (GLMs). Results show that fires follow a clear intra-annual cycle, with 86% of fire events taking place during the region's main dry season (December–March). There is also inter-annual variability related to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) quasi-decadal climatic oscillation. Active fires exhibit a distinctive spatial pattern, with regional hotspots. The set of variables that best explain fire presence/absence include biophysical (TNA, temperature annual range, dry quarter precipitation), anthropogenic (minimum distance to towns and roads) and composite (NDVI) variables. The extensive and ongoing land cover transformation of this region, from forest to pasture and agriculture, will likely increase the extent of burned areas and future carbon fire emissions to the atmosphere.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of fires in tropical savannas of Indonesia

This paper examines spatial and temporal patterns of large to medium‐sized fires across the Indonesian Archipelago using remote sensing, particularly the MODIS fire products, over a 14 years period (2000–13 inclusive) in conjunction with climatic and land data in a GIS. Results showed fires (burned area and number of fires) were detected the most in year 2002 and least in 2010. The extent of burning was correlated with the annual Southern Oscillation Index with most burning occurring during times of sustained negative SOI values, which generally means drier conditions across the region. Most of the detected fires occurred in the middle of the dry season and in drier eastern Indonesia. Across Indonesia, approximately 1.5 per cent of available open vegetation area burned, whereas only 0.5 per cent of forest area burned. Most open vegetation burning was detected in the savanna with an area equivalent to 11.1 per cent of its extent being burned over the 14 years. On Sumba Island, where the pronounced dry season extends for at least four months, open vegetation is the most common land cover type, of which 99 per cent burned by area over the study period making it the island with the most burned areas in the Indonesian Archipelago.     

Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999–2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildland–urban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future land-use conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies.     

THE LOCATION OF LIGHTNING-CAUSED WILDLAND FIRES,NORTHERN IDAHO

Elevation, timber type, size and density of stand, position on slope, and slope aspect were assessed as to their effects upon the location of 2088 lightning-caused forest fires in a 1.4 million-hectare tract of northern Idaho. χ² analysis revealed that relative fire frequency was greatest between 1050 and 1650 m on the upper 1/3 of those slopes which lie perpendicular to dominant storm tracks and which are covered with Hemlock, Alpine Fir and Spruce.     

中南半岛旱季VIIRS活跃火的空间特征与国别差异

热带是全球活跃火(active fire)的集中发生区,客观认识其空间特征、国别差异及其动态变化对评估区域生物质燃烧及其碳排放等具有重要意义。作为热带季风气候典型区,中南半岛旱季活跃火发生发展空间特征及其动态变化仍缺乏清晰认识。为此,论文利用可见光红外成像辐射仪(VIIRS) S-NPP 2012—2019年活跃火矢量数据,基于核密度与空间自相关评价了中南半岛及国别旱季尤其是其特征月份(2—4月)活跃火发生发展的密集程度、集聚特征及其动态变化。结果表明：① 中南半岛活跃火核密度低值区占比最大(79%),高值区最小(4%);柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝等经济落后国家的核密度均值明显高于泰国和越南;2012—2019年核密度高值区具有朝高海拔、向内陆与趋边境等分布特征,且柬埔寨东北部长居高值区。② 活跃火核密度中值区变化集中在1—4月,且多分布在低、高值区周围;高值区变化集中在2—4月,由柬埔寨东北部逐渐向缅甸东/西部、泰国西北部以及老挝北/南部转移。③ 半岛与5国活跃火核密度在旱季具有显著空间正相关性,空间集聚类型以“高—高”型和“低—低”型集聚为主,越南、柬埔寨等国局部自相关性强于泰国和老挝。     

Mediterranean cities under fire. A critical approach to the wildland–urban interface

Wildfires are widely reviewed as key inputs to Mediterranean ecosystems. However, research is often flawed by major biases. (1) The approach adopted by most planners focusing on forest fires dismisses the human dimension of fire as a component of agricultural production systems. (2) The Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) concept postulates that cities and wildlands/wildfires are, and should remain, worlds apart, a statement whose truth is increasingly questioned by recent disastrous “urban wildfires”. (3) The Mediterranean Basin as a fire-prone area is all the more fantasized, as it is almost never studied as a whole.The present paper takes a critical view of city–wildland/wildfire interrelationships through a large-scale study of the Mediterranean Basin based on MODIS MCD12Q1 (Land Cover Type) and MCD45A1 (Burned Area Product) data collected between 2001 and 2013. The Mediterranean is an ideal place to investigate, as its human-dominated and urbanized landscapes are known to be extremely vulnerable to fire hazards. Data processing reveals that (wild)fires and cities maintain indissoluble ties, as if both elements could not be considered mutually exclusive on a geographical basis. Urban sprawl, reduced rural autonomies, changes in forest covers, old agricultural practices, and military conflicts provide the framework for an extended mitigation process challenging the WUI concept as a space divider.     

Mapping fire regimes in China using MODIS active fire and burned area data

Relatively little is known about vegetation fire regimes in China. In this study, we investigated fire regime characteristics and their potential drivers, utilizing information extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite. Twelve fire regime variables were selected and computed on a regular grid over all of China, using MODIS burned area and active fire data during the period 2001 to 2016, to identify fire incidence and its inter-annual variability, seasonality, intensity, fire size distribution and vegetation types affected by fire. The variables were normalized and clustered to define six fire regimes with distinctive fire attributes. Results show that 78.6% of the land in China was affected by fire during the study period. The barren or sparsely vegetated lands of western China are nearly fire-free. Active fires were observed in Central China, but area burned was not detectable from MODIS. Forest fires in northeastern China are relatively large, infrequent, with a short fire season that peaks in non-winter seasons and higher inter-annual variability, implying a high likelihood of accidental causes. In contrast, forest fires in southern China are relatively small, frequent, with a long fire season that peaks in non-summer seasons, and lower inter-annual variability, suggesting regular use as a land management tool. Low inter-annual variability and low fire intensity were associated with cropland fires, whereas grassland fires generally exhibit the opposite traits. We have also discussed the potential drivers of each fire regime characteristics.     

Vegetative succession and controlled fire in a glades ecosystem A geographical information system approach

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) approach was used successfully on a federal wilderness area in southwestern Missouri to examine vegetative succession relative to fire management in a glades ecosystem. Maps of vegetation were obtained by interpreting aerial photographs taken in 1938, 1958, 1966, 1975 and 1986. Maps of topography, streams, soils and the location of fires which burned during the period 1938 to 1986 were also procured from a variety of public agencies. All maps were digitized and incorporated into a raster-based GIS with 25 m pixels. It was concluded that (1) both glades and oak-hickory forest have an affinity for distinct physiographic areas and (2) fire can help decrease the rate of processes of natural succession which cause glades to convert to forest. The probable effects of controlled fire on three areas proposed by the Forest Service were evaluated and summarized.     

Wildfire-Migration Dynamics: Lessons from Colorado's Fourmile Canyon Fire

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves.     

SPATIAL PROPERTIES OF LIGHTNING-CAUSED FOREST FIRES

Some 2088 lightning-caused forest fires that occurred between 1960 and 1971 in northern Idaho are described and analyzed relative to the properties of pattern, central tendency, and spatial variability. Pattern analysis reveals that randomness characterizes both the distribution of total fires and of annual mean areal centers. A model is proposed relating the latitudinal and longitudinal behavior of mean areal centers to shifts in storm tracks and resultant adjustments in fuel-moisture conditions. Rank correlation analysis reveals that northwest shifts in mean areal centers are associated with higher fuel-moisture conditions whereas southeast movements in mean areal centers are related to reduced fuel-moisture conditions. No significant differences were revealed in the variability of the annual standard distances of fire distribution, nor was there any association between temperature and azimuthal adjustments in mean areal centers.     

Roads increase woody cover under varying geological,rainfall and fire regimes in African savanna

Roads extend throughout savannas, yet few studies have quantified their effects on adjoining woody vegetation structure. Airborne LiDAR imagery collected over 168 experimental fire plots in the Kruger National Park, all bounded by graded firebreak roads, provided an opportunity to study if, and to what extent, roads influence woody vegetation structure under different rainfall, geologic and fire conditions. In 91.7% of the plots, woody canopy cover was higher on the edges of roads compared to areas farther away. The increase was most pronounced within 5 m of the road edge, but was detectable 10–15 m from the edge. On average, the area within 15 m from the road had approximately 6% and 2% higher woody vegetation cover than areas further than 15 m from the edge on wetter granitic and drier basaltic savanna landscapes, respectively. Increased edge effects on woody cover were observed even in fire exclusion plots, suggesting that non-fire processes, likely altered hydrological regimes, may be the underlying reason for woody encroachment. This study illustrates that roads cause selective woody plant thickening in savannas, even in areas without road edge management, and therefore careful consideration should be paid on how road edges are managed and when roads are planned.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence in a Mediterranean environment: a case study of southern Croatia

Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic.     

ANALYSIS OF FIRE EVENTS AND CONTROLLING FACTORS IN EASTERN INDIA USING SPATIAL SCAN AND MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS

Vegetation fires are one of the most serious environmental problems in several ecoregions of India. The purpose of this study is to characterize spatio‐temporal characteristics of fire events in Orissa state, eastern India. In this study, ATSR satellite remote sensing data have been used to quantify fire events from 1997 to 2006. The spatial scan statistic that quantifies ‘hotspot’ areas of fire risk has been used to identify statistically significant fire clusters during the ten‐year time period. To assess the causative factors of fires, topographic, vegetation, climatic, anthropogenic and accessibility factors were used in a robust multivariate statistical framework. Results suggested a clear variation in hotspots of fire occurrences among districts. Of the several districts, the most likely cluster of fire events has been identified in Jharsuguda district followed by secondary clusters in Gajapati, Phulbani, Anugul, Debagarh, Balangir and Raygada. The first three principal components (PCs) from multivariate statistical analysis could explain 70.48% of variance in biophysical and socio‐economic indicators of fire events. The loadings were fairly large and highly positive for deciduous forest percentage, elevation, slope mean, aspect mean, and rural population density in the first PC explaining 40.21% of variance. The second PC included drought index, average temperature and illiteracy explaining nearly 19.2% variance. The third PC had a strong positive association with cropped area and forest cover explaining 10.98% of the total variance. Overall, by quantifying the disparities in fire events in space and time, this study demonstrates the utility of the spatial scan statistic in identifying priority areas of fire risk. Our results on fire hotspots and causative factors of risk can guide forest managers toward the best management strategies for avoiding damage to forests, human life, and personal property in the study area.     

基于GWR模型的道路网络对森林碳密度干扰的地理变异

以闽江上游地区为例,在分析三明市2007—2016年森林碳密度时空动态的基础上,采用常规的以及改进后的道路网络测度指标,应用缓冲区分析方法和地理加权回归（Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR）模型,从线上和面上分别探讨道路网络对森林碳密度干扰的地理变异规律。结果表明：① 碳密度受到道路网络的较大影响,路网影响域内外碳密度的大小排序为：路网影响域内＜整个研究区＜路网影响域外;多条道路影响域重叠区的碳密度(26.330 Mg/hm²)明显低于单条道路影响域的碳密度(37.406 Mg/hm²);不同等级道路影响域的碳密度由大到小依次为县道＞高速＞省道＞其它道路＞国道＞乡道。道路网络对2007—2016年碳密度的降低也有明显影响。② GWR模型的分析结果表明,路网对碳密度的影响程度随着样点的变化而变化,具有“空间非平稳性”。碳密度随着路网密度的增加而降低,而随着离道路距离的增加而增加。③ 研究区西北部和中部,GWR的回归系数及相关系数均较大,表明这2个区域道路对碳密度影响大且解释力皆较强。     

道路网络生态干扰测度指数的改进及其空间分异特征——以闽江上游为例

以闽江上游地区为例,在传统指数的基础上,提出并采用改进后的道路网络线密度和道路网络影响域面密度指数,结合空间自相关分析方法,从线上和面上综合探索道路网络对生态干扰的空间分异格局;并分析指数间的相关性.结果表明:①道路干扰程度具有明显的地区差异,在研究区中部、东部和南部存在空间集聚效应;②考虑到坡度影响,同等级的道路缓冲...     

Modeling the spatial patterns of human wildfire ignition in Yunnan province,China

Despite wildfire being an important regulator of dryland ecosystems, uncontrolled wildfire can be harmful to both forest ecosystems and human society, and wildfire prevention and control continue to raise worldwide concern. Wildfire management depends on knowledge of wildfire ignitions, both for cause and location. The regimes and factors influencing wildfire ignition have been studied at length. Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes and human activity is responsible for igniting the largest number of fires in our study area. Understanding the spatial patterns of ignitions is foremost to achieving efficiency in wildfire prevention. Previous studies mainly concentrate on overall wildfire risk integrating numerous factors simultaneously, yet the importance of human factors on ignition has not received much attention. In this study, we mapped human accessibility to explore the influence of human activity on wildfire ignition in a simple and straightforward way. A Bayesian weights-of-evidence (WofE) method was developed based on fire hotspots in China's Yunnan province extracted from satellite images and verified as known wildfires for the period 2007–2013. We considered a set of factors that impact fire ignition as associated with human accessibility: the locations of settlements, roads, water and farmland susceptible to human wildfire ignition. Known points of likely wildfire ignition were selected as training samples and all suspected thematic maps of the factors were taken as explanatory layers. Next, the weights of each layer in terms of its explanatory power were computed and used to generate evidence based on a threshold to pass a statistical test. The conditional independence (CI) of each layer was checked with the Agterberg-Cheng test. Finally, the posterior probability was calculated and its precision validated using samples of both presence and absence by withheld validation data. A comparison of WofE models was made to test the predictability. Results show proximity to villages, roads and farmland are strongly associated with human wildfire ignition and that wildfire more often occurs at an intermediate distance from high-density human activity. The WofE method proved more powerful than logistic regression, improving predictive accuracy by 10% and was more straightforward in presenting the association of dependence and independence. In addition, WofE with 1000 m buffer bands is more robust in predicting human wildfire ignition risk than binary or 100 m buffers for the ecoregion studied. Our results are significant for advising practical wildfire management and resource allocation, evaluation of human ignition control and also provides a foundation for future efforts toward integrated wildfire prediction.