Attractor structures of riftogenesis in the lithosphere of Baikal Rift System

The study results of modern geodynamics and tectonophysics of the lithosphere of Baikal Rift System (BRS) are generalized. By the data on radii of dislocations, three areas of maximal strain-strength anisotropy of the medium are distinguished, while analysis of seismic moments of earthquakes has showed that in these parts of the lithosphere mostly dip-slip fault-causing quakes of various energy classes take place; i.e., riftogenesis processes dominate. Within the framework of the theory of nonlinear dissipative dynamical systems, these areas are classified as attractor structures of riftogenesis (ASR). ASRs are located in the central part and in the flanks of the BRS, and they form nonlinearity and instability of modern geodynamical and tectonophysical processes in the lithosphere, which are manifested in seismicity of the Baikal Region and Mongolia.     

Deepwater helium in Lake Baikal as an earthquake precursor

In this paper, attention is paid to the importance of short-term prognosis of earthquakes. The variability of determination methods is noted. One of the geochemical methods, based on study of the helium content in deep water of Lake Baikal, is considered; such a method has not been used for open deep-water basins within the zones of high seismic danger. It is established that in the period of earthquake preparation, variations in the helium content deep underwater in Lake Baikal are recorded. A sharp decrease in the helium content two days before the earthquake was recorded first time for a long period of observation, as well as the consequent increase. Further study of the helium content deep underwater in Lake Baikal is recommended, and, should these data be proved, it is recommended as a short-term precursor of earthquakes.     

Hierarchy of earthquakes in the Baikal rift system: implications for lithospheric stress

We investigated space-time lithospheric stress patterns of the Baikal rift system according to the hierarchy of earthquakes using mechanisms of 265 K_P ≥ 10 events recorded from 1950 to 1998 and seismic moments of 802 K_P ≥ 11 events from 1968 to 1994. The lithosphere of the region was confirmed to undergo rifting with mostly normal-slip events, while local areas of frequent strike-slip and reverse motions may record stress heterogeneity. The dominance of rifting, although being evident in the stress dynamics, is unstable, which is indicated by increase in strike-slip and reverse motions to as many as normal slip events in the latest 1980s–earliest 1990s. The lithospheric stress patterns inferred from seismic-moment data are generally consistent with those derived from the classical focal mechanism method. The suggested approach of seismic zoning according to earthquake slip geometry may provide a more reliable background for successful mitigation of seismic hazard in the region.     

The three-dimensional shear velocity structure of lithosphere in the southern Baikal rift system and its surroundings

The three-dimensional shear velocity lithospheric structure at depths from 0 to 70 km beneath the southern Baikal rift system and its surroundings has been imaged by inversion of P-to-SV receiver functions from 46 digital stations operated in two teleseismic international projects in southern Siberia and Mongolia. The receiver functions were determined from teleseismic P waveforms and inverted to obtain depth dependences of S velocities at each station which were related to tectonic structures. The computed vertical and horizontal sections of the 3D shear velocity model imaged a transition from relatively thin crust of the southern Siberian craton to thicker crust in the folded area south and southeast of Lake Baikal, with a local zone of thin crust right underneath the South Baikal basin. The velocity structure beneath the Baikal rift, the mountains of Transbaikalia, Mongolia, and the southern craton margin includes several low-velocity zones at different depths in the crust. Some of these zones may record seismic anisotropy associated with mylonite alignment along large thrusts.     

Sediment-derived chronologies of persistent contaminants in Jamaica Bay,New York

Chronologies of particle-associated contaminant levels were developed for Jamaica Bay, an embayment of the Atlantic Ocean on southwestern Long Island. A major potential source of contaminants to the system is wastewater discharge, which comprises most of the freshwater input to the bay. Sediment core sections were analyzed for Cs-137, Pu-239, 240, and Be-7 activities which were then used to establish net particle accumulation rates. Samples deposited from the early 1950s through the late 1980s were analyzed for metals and chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminants. Trace metals, including copper, lead, chromium, zinc, and mercury, were elevated to levels several times those of pre-industrial concentrations. These metals decreased by about 50% between the mid 1960s and the late 1980s. Chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations, including polychlorinated biphenyls, chlordane, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane-derived compounds, decreased by a factor of five to ten between the late 1960s and the late 1980s. Local improvements in wastewater treatment and national efforts to regulate the uses and releases of specific chemicals are the most likely explanation of declines in contaminant levels in these sediments.     

长江源沱沱河区45a来的气候变化特征

利用1959—2003年长江源区沱沱河气象站气温、降水、积雪等地面观测资料,对年代际的气候变化特征及其影响进行了分析.结果表明:该区域45 a来夏季增温比较明显.20世纪90年代四季平均气温、平均最高和平均最低气温比最冷的80(或60)年代偏高0.6~1.2℃;降水量(含积雪量)冬季呈增加的趋势,夏季呈减少的趋势,秋、春季降水量增加而积雪量减少;年大风日数80—90年代较60—70年代偏多.80年代是夏季温度升高、降水减少、大风日数增多的暖干气候背景,90年代以来继续加剧,并逐步扩展到春、秋季节,使得该区域的草场退化、冰川和冻土消融加快、湿地资源减少、生态环境恶化.     

1960-2003年新疆山区与平原积雪长期变化的对比分析

对新疆91个地面站44a(1960—2003年)的>0cm积雪日数、冬季最大积雪厚度、冬季降水量和冬季平均温度统计分析,结果发现:伴随着20世纪80年代以来明显的增温增湿变化,新疆积雪呈轻度增长趋势,90年代增加明显.积雪日数和厚度与冬季降水量呈正相关,但与冬季平均温度没有明显相关关系.将91个地面站分成24个山区站和67个平原站的进一步分析表明,山区积雪增幅大于平原,而平原的冬季温度和降水增幅大于山区.60年代和90年代山区和平原呈两个相反方向的同步变化(60年代少雪、少降水和降温;90年代多雪、多降水和增温),但幅度略有不同.70年代和80年代山区和平原无论积雪还是温度、降水量都呈现明显不同的变化.     

Investigation of Migrating Seismicity in the Lithosphere of the Baikal Rift Zone

Doklady Earth Sciences - Based on “Catalog of earthquakes in the Baikal Region” (52700 earthquakes of representative energy classes KP > 8, 1964–2013) at the angular sector...     

On generation conditions of strong earthquakes in southern Baikal

In this paper the features of seismic process in the southern depression of Lake Baikal are considered. By the data on focal mechanisms of the earthquakes of February 25, 1999 (M _w = 6.0), and August 27, 2008 (M _w = 6.3), as well as based on configuration of their aftershock fields, it is determined that foci of strong seismic events in southern Baikal are controlled by the greatest structural elements of sublatitudinal and submeridional strikes. It has been shown that a substantial role in the formation of focal zones is played by low-scale destruction of the Earth’s crust, revealed by geological-geophysical data and proved by clustering of seismic shocks. New data on the August 27, 2008, earthquake have proved the high level of seismic danger of this part of the Baikal Rift Zone and allowed us to determine generation conditions of strong earthquakes more precisely.     

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on unified scaling law for earthquakes: Altai–Sayan Region

We apply the general concept of seismic risk analysis based on morphostructural analysis of the territory, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, in another seismic region of Russia to the west from Lake Baikal, i.e., Altai–Sayan Region. The USLE generalizes the empirical Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of apparently fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size: \( \log_{10} N\left( {M,L} \right)\, = \,A\, + \,B \cdot \left( {5\, - \,M} \right)\, + \,C \cdot \log_{10} L, \) where N (M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The local estimates of A, B, and C allow determination of the expected maximum credible magnitude in a given time interval and the associated spread around ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macroseismic intensity, I₀). Compilation of the corresponding seismic hazard map of Altai–Sayan Region and its rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past is used to model regional maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures.     

Long-term improvements in water quality due to sewage abatement in the lower Hudson River

Long-trend trends in dissolved oxygen (DO) and total coliform bacteria concentrations are used to evaluate the impact of almost 60 yr of sewage abatement and treatment in the lower Hudson River near New York City. Although some water pollution control plants have been in operation in the region since the 1930s, the most significant abatement of untreated sewage in the lower Hudson River has occurred since the late 1970s, when most of the existing plants were upgraded to secondary treatment, and additional plants were constructed. From at least 1922 through the early 1960s, average summer DO percent saturation varied between 35% and 50% in surface waters and 25% and 40% in bottom waters. Beginning in the late 1970s, DO concentrations generally increased through the 1980s and especially into the 1990s, coinciding with the upgrading of the 7.4 m³ s^?1 (170 million gallons per day, mgd) North River plant to secondary treatment in the spring of 1991. Average summer percent saturation in the early 1990s exceeded 80% in surface waters and 60% in bottom waters. In addition, summer DO minima have increased from less than 1.5 mg 1^?1 in the early 1970s to greater than 3.0 mg 1^?1 in the 1990s, and the duration of hypoxia during summer months has been reduced. Total coliforms also display strong declining trends from the 1970s into the 1990s, with declines attributed to plant upgrades, construction of two New York City plants (North River and Red Hook) in the mid 1980s, and improved operation of the sewer system.     

三江平原1960-2004年农业气候环境年代际变化

为研究三江平原农业气候环境年代际变化,使用1960-2004年三江平原17个国家气象站和14个农垦气象站观测资料,分析了三江平原气候资源和气候灾害变化特征.结果表明:①≥10℃活动积温20世纪60年代、70年代偏少,夏季低温发生频繁.80年代以后热量资源增加,夏季低温出现次数减少.②作物生长季降水量在20世纪70年代、90年代后期以后偏少,干旱年份偏多;其他时段降雨以偏多年份居多,雨涝年份较多.③1960-2004年三江平原热量资源变化与西风带环流及人类活动关系密切;降水资源多少与西太平洋副热带高压强度有很好的关系,与纬向环流变化也有一定联系.     

The “methane eruption” on Lake Baikal in 1912 as an effect of a strong earthquake

New factual materials on methane eruptions into the water of Lake Baikal in August 1912 are considered. The regional press is used as the information source. The spatio-temporal relationship between the gas eruptions and earthquakes, observed in South Baikal in 1912, is revealed, which permits us to consider this effect as a consequence of seismic activity intensification. Intensive methane discharge into water is a potential danger for the lake’s ecosystem as was proved by massive death of water organisms in South Baikal in 1912 during the described phenomena.     

Assessment of the Decadal Prediction Skill on Global Land Summer Monsoon Precipitation in the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

Global monsoon precipitation plays a crucial role in the local social economy and global large-scale circulation and energy cycle. Using the decadal prediction output for 1960-2015 from ENSEMBLES Stream 2, the decadal hindcast skill of climate models on global land monsoon precipitation and the potential source of predictability were examined in this paper. It is found that the decadal variation of global and southern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation is not well hindcasted by ENSEMBLES. However, the Northern Hemispheric land Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in hindcast is well predicted, including the observed downward trend from 1960 to the late 1970s and upward trend since the 1990s. The main deficiency is that the minimum NHSM precipitation occured in mid-1970s, which is 10-year earlier than the observation, leading to poor prediction of NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Mega-ENSO and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are the two main factored that modulate the decadal variation of NHSM precipitation. The result shows that the relationships of NHSM precipitation with mega-ENSO and AMO in ENSENBLES are higher than the observation. The climate models well predicted the increase from 1960 to the late 1970s and decrease trend since the 1990s of mega-ENSO and AMO. It is the primary source of the prediction skill on NHSM changes during the two periods. Although AMO is well predicted by ENSEMBLES (highest correlation coefficient with observation is 0.85), the prediction skill of mega-ENSO is limited, leading to poor performance in predicting NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Thus, improving the prediction of mega-ENSO can be seen as one important method of better decadal prediction of NHSM precipitation.     

新疆洪灾时间序列突变及其气候原因分析

利用统计方法对新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列进行了非参数突变检验, 发现新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列在1980年代中后期发生了明显的突变.突变现象在洪灾直接经济损失上也有明显表现, 主要表现为洪灾直接经济损失在1980年代中后期出现了明显的差异, 即1980年代中后期以前损失较低, 之后急剧增大.在分析了洪灾序列和降水序列的相关关系的基础上, 认为1980年代中后期新疆洪灾损失突变的主要原因之一是此时期新疆气候发生了由干到湿的转折.     

福建水氡对闽台地震的映震分析

利用福建水氡台网 1 990年以来的水氡资料 ,针对 6次福建及其东南沿海大于 4 5级地震 ,7次台湾及其近海大于 6 8级地震进行分析研究 ,认为地震前异常存在加速性、同步性 ,形态的多样性 ,空间分布的不确定性。运用“九五”攻关软件 ,给出上述两区域地震异常特征的共性和个性 ,并对映震效能进行R值评分     

The extraregional seismotectonic method for the assessment of seismic potential

The extraregional seismotectonic method for prognosis estimation of seismic potential (M _max) is presented. Information on the recent structure and state of the Earth's crust is used as the initial data for performing the seismotectonic analysis. The Earth's crust typification is performed applying computer procedures of cluster analysis for the territory of the major part of Europe of the adjacent aquatories and Central Asia. Application of the method results in an essential improvement of the prediction of the site and strength of expected earthquakes within seismically active territories and also makes possible the estimation of the seismic potential of weakly active regions from the same methodological standpoint.     

贝加尔裂谷系及邻区断裂现今活动变化及成因(英文)

已有的地质和地球物理方法无法对年、月、旬等现今时间尺度上的断层活动变化进行有效预测。运用基于地震活动定量指数运算程序的地理信息技术可以解决这个问题。这种方法被应用于贝加尔裂谷系(BRS)及邻区的研究当中。研究发现,断层活动变化发生在以几年为周期的时间尺度上,这无法用区域应力场的变化进行合理解释。沿着穿越贝加尔裂谷系的剖面编制了活动断层图以及地震活动定量指数曲线。提出的这种方法可以根据地震活动定量指数对活动断层进行仔细的分类,从而为解决地震中期预报相关问题开辟了重要途径。这种方法还被用来研究断层现今活动的时空变化和形成机制。研究发现,在实时尺度上断层活动具有高频发生的特征,这种现象可能是由于脆性岩石圈板内和块体内部运动产生的慢变形波的干扰导致的。利用变形波的通过速度可以对活动断层进行分组,各组具有不同的地质和地球物理特征参数,同时还可以对变形波波前的方向以及某一区域内主要断层在实时间隔内(地质上的瞬间)的活动情况进行预测。     

吉林近50a来气候的年代际变化特征及其突变分析

利用吉林省50个地面气象站的观测资料对近50 a来吉林气候的年代际变化进行了诊断分析, 结果表明: 吉林省的年平均气温在20世纪50年代呈下降趋势, 60年代为相对低温期, 70年代开始表现出逐渐增温的趋势; 20世纪50年代降水量逐渐减少, 60-70年代为相对降水少的时期, 80年代降水略有增加, 进入90年代以后, 降水量又表现为逐渐减少的趋势. 近50 a来气候的年代际变化经历了一个"冷湿-冷干-暖湿-暖干"的过程.吉林省的最高、最低气温在近50 a内的总体趋势都是上升的, 但从增温率来看, 最低气温大约是最高气温的2.3倍.采用分段线性拟合的方法对吉林省年降水量和年平均气温进行气候突变的检验, 发现年降水量在1977和1987年各有一次突变, 年平均气温只在1969年发生了一次突变.     

远震数据显示贝加尔裂谷带北穆伊斯克(Severomuysk)段地壳和上地幔的精细结构

通过贝加尔裂谷系统北穆伊斯克(Severomuysk)段的密集地震台站线性网络获得的远距离强震记录,并利用P波接收函数技术,揭示了地壳和上地幔顶部的复杂分层块状结构。横波速度的分布表明构成北穆伊斯克地壳的地块具有不同性质。这些地块的西部聚散和地壳下部的分层证实了该地区隆起的堆积-碰撞起源。位于西伯利亚克拉通变薄的倾斜边缘上的北穆伊斯克段解释了该地区地壳碰撞效应的强度。2015年地震的震中深度与Muyakan 凹陷地壳上部的明显速度差异存在令人信服的相关性。