Seasonal Variation Features of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Their Predictability

Analysis is done of monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cyclone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system. Obtained by computing the accumulated distance distribution function of the tracks Cm (l) is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.     

Upper-Tropospheric Environment–Tropical Cyclone Interactions over the Western North Pacific: A Statistical Study

Based on 25-year(1987–2011) tropical cyclone(TC) best track data, a statistical study was carried out to investigate the basic features of upper-tropospheric TC–environment interactions over the western North Pacific. Interaction was defined as the absolute value of eddy momentum flux convergence(EFC) exceeding 10 m s~(-1)d~(-1). Based on this definition, it was found that 18% of all six-hourly TC samples experienced interaction. Extreme interaction cases showed that EFC can reach~120 m s~(-1)d~(-1) during the extratropical-cyclone(EC) stage, an order of magnitude larger than reported in previous studies.Composite analysis showed that positive interactions are characterized by a double-jet flow pattern, rather than the traditional trough pattern, because it is the jets that bring in large EFC from the upper-level environment to the TC center. The role of the outflow jet is also enhanced by relatively low inertial stability, as compared to the inflow jet. Among several environmental factors, it was found that extremely large EFC is usually accompanied by high inertial stability, low SST and strong vertical wind shear(VWS). Thus, the positive effect of EFC is cancelled by their negative effects. Only those samples during the EC stage, whose intensities were less dependent on VWS and the underlying SST, could survive in extremely large EFC environments, or even re-intensify. For classical TCs(not in the EC stage), it was found that environments with a moderate EFC value generally below ~25 m s~(-1)d~(-1) are more favorable for a TC's intensification than those with extremely large EFC.     

Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific during 1982–2020:Features and Possible Causes

The westward migration of tropical cyclone(TC) activity has been identified in the western North Pacific(WNP),but the related features and causes remain elusive. Here, based on the best track data from China, Japan, and the US,and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data in 1982–2020, we investigate characteristics of the westward migration of the WNP TC activity with various metrics, and reveal possible causes for the migration of TC tracks through analyzing its seasonality and dependence on environmental...     

Bias Analysis in the Simulation of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Characteristics by Two High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Models

This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS) and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI) with respect to tropical cyclone(TC) characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP) for the July–October months of 1985–2014. The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP＿TEJ) in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF) based on the a...     

Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Strengthen the East Asia–Pacific Pattern during Summer

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to2018.The results showed that the TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere.Further analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP pattern.The present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.     

Diurnal Variation of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall at Indian Stations

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Autumn Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 1949–2016:A Statistical Study

We used tropical cyclone(TC) best track data for 1949–2016, provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI), and a TC size dataset(1980–2016) derived from geostationary satellite infrared images to analyze the statistical characteristics of autumn TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP). We investigated TC genesis frequency, location, track density, intensity, outer size, and landfalling features, as well as their temporal and spatial evolution characteristics. On average, the number of autumn TCs accounted for 42.1% of the annual total, slightly less than that of summer TCs(42.7%). However, TCs classified as strong typhoons or super typhoons were more frequent in autumn than in summer. In most years of the 68-yr study period, there was an inverse relationship between the number of autumn TCs and that of summer TCs. The genesis of autumn TCs was concentrated at three centers over the WNP: the first is located near(14°N, 115°E) over the northeastern South China Sea and the other two are located in the vast oceanic area east of the Philippines around(14°N, 135°E) and(14°N,145°E), respectively. In terms of intensity, the eight strongest TCs during the study period all occurred in autumn. It is revealed that autumn TCs were featured with strong typhoons and super typhoons, with the latter accounting for28.1% of the total number of autumn TCs. Statistically, the average 34-knot radius(R34) of autumn TCs increased with TC intensity. From 1949 to 2016, 164 autumn TCs made landfall in China, with an average annual number of2.4. Autumn TCs were most likely to make landfall in Guangdong Province, followed by Hainan Province and Taiwan Island.     

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Convection during TOGA COARE IOP

Diurnal variation of tropical convection and kinematic and thermodynamic conditions was investigated for different large-scale environments of the convectively active and inactive periods by using satellite observations and surface measurements during the Intensive Observation Period （IOP） of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere/Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment （TOGA/COARE）. During the convectively active period, the features of nocturnal convection appear in vertical profiles of convergence, vertical velocity, heat source, and moisture sink. The specific humidity increases remarkably in the middle troposphere at dawn. On the other hand, the altitude of maximum convergence and that of the upward motion is lower during the convectively inactive period. The specific humidity peaks in the lower troposphere in the daytime and decreases in the middle troposphere. Spectral analyses of the time series of the infrared （IR） brightness temperature （TBB） and amounts of rainfall suggest multiscale temporal variation with a prominent diurnal cycle over land and oceanic regions such as the Intensive Flux Array （IFA） and the South Pacific Convergence Zone （SPCZ）. Over land, the daily maximum of deep convection associated with cloud top temperature less than 208 K appears at midnight due to the daytime radiative heating and the sea-land breeze. Over the ocean, convection usually tends to occur at dawn for the convectively active period while in the afternoon during the inactive period. Comparing the diurnal variation of convection with large-scale variables, the authors inferred that moisture in the middle troposphere contributes mostly to the development of nocturnal convection over the ocean during the convectively active period.     

A Logistic-growth-equation-based Intensity Prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones※

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes. A seven-day T...     

Roles of Multi-Scale Disturbances over the Tropical North Pacific in the Turnabout of 1997-98 El Nino

The space-time features of major vorticity disturbances over the western North Pacific during the 1997-98 El Nino ranked as one of the strongest events on record was investigated in this study. We distinguished the different roles that these disturbances had on different timescales in causing the reversal or turnabout of the El Nino event. Remarkable differences in the various disturbances of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales were found in the time evolution, propagation, and in their contributions to the changes in nearequatorial zonal flow, which was crucial to the demise of the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. It is hypothesized that the westward-traveling synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific might be considered as a self-provided negative feedback from the El Nino and played an additional role in its reversal in comparison with other interannual internal and external forcings. In this case, the off-equatorial synoptic and intraseaonal fluctuations served as a stochastic forcing for the tropical ocean and gave rise to the aperiodicity or irregularity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.     

The Structure and Rainfall Features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun （2002）

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysisof TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data,some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.     

Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea in Summer 2018: Joint Effects of Decaying La Ni?a and Intraseasonal Oscillation

In summer 2018, a total of 18 tropical cyclones(TCs) formed in the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS), among which 8 TCs landed in China, ranking respectively the second and the first highest since 1951.Most of these TCs travelled northwest to northward, bringing in heavy rainfall and strong winds in eastern China and Japan. The present study investigates the impacts of decaying La Ni?a and intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) on the extremely active TCs over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 by use of correlation and composite analyses. It is found that the La Ni?a episode from October 2017 to March 2018 led to above-normal sea surface temperature(SST) over central–western Pacific, lower sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height over WNP, and abnormally strong convective activities over the western Pacific in summer 2018. These preceding oceanic thermal conditions and their effects on circulation anomalies are favorable to TC genesis in summer. Detailed examination reveals that the monsoon trough was located further north and east, inducing more TCs in northern and eastern WNP; and the more eastward WNP subtropical high as well as the significant wave train with a "-+-+" height anomaly pattern over the midlatitude Eurasia–North Pacific region facilitated the northwest to northward TC tracks. Further analyses reveal that two successively active periods of Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) occurred in summer 2018 and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) was also active over WNP, propagating northward significantly, corresponding to the more northward TC tracks. The MJO was stagnant over the Maritime Continent to western Pacific,leading to notably enhanced convection in the lower troposphere and divergence in the upper troposphere, conducive to TC occurrences. In a word, the extremely active TC activities over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 are closely linked with the decaying La Ni?a, and the MJO and BSISO; their joint effects result in increased TC occurrences and the TC tracks being shifted more northwest to northward than normal.     

Interdecadal Variability of the ENSO–North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation in Winter

The interdecadal change in the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. There are two prominent modes of winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the North Pacific: the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection and the Aleutian Low (AL). The relationship between ENSO and the WP-AL patterns changed notably around the late 1970s. From 1957 to 1975, during the mature phase of ENSO, significant sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occurred, mainly in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean; the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the negative phase of a WP teleconnection pattern. In contrast, for the 1978–2011 period, significant negative SSTAs were observed in the western and extratropical Pacific in both hemispheres, with some significant positive SSTAs appearing over the eastern Pacific. This is in agreement with the defined regions of a mega-ENSO, the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the AL mode. Further analysis suggests that a negative–positive anomaly pattern in the 500?hPa geopotential height throughout the entire North Pacific, possibly enhanced by the SSTAs in the extratropical North Pacific associated with the mature phase of ENSO, is responsible for modulating the relationship between ENSO and the North Pacific atmospheric circulation.     

Water Vapor Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific from 20-year Radiosonde Data

The 20-year (1976-1995) daily radiosonde data at 17 stations in the tropical western Pacific was ana lyzed. The analysis shows that the atmosphere is more humid in a warmer climate on seasonal, inter-annual and long-term (20-year) time scales, implying a positive water vapor feedback. The vertical structure of the long-term trends in relative humidity (RH) is distinct from that on short-term (seasonal and inter-annual) time scales, suggesting that observed water vapor changes on short time scales could not be considered as a surrogate of long-term climate change. The increasing trend of RH (3%-5%/decade) in the upper troposphere is stronger than that in the lower troposphere (1%-2% / decade). Such vertical structure would amplify positive water vapor feedback in comparison to the common assumption of constant RH changes vertically. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertical structure of RH variations shows distinct features of the vertical structure of the first three EOFs. The first three EOFs are optimal for repre sentation of water vapor profiles and provide some hints on physical mechanisms responsible for observed humidity variability. Vaisala radiosondes were used at nine stations, and VIZ radiosondes used at other eight stations. The Vaisala data are corrected for temperature-dependence error using the correction scheme developed by NCAR / ATD and Vaisala. The comparison of Vaisala and VIZ data shows that the VIZ-measured RHs after October 1993 have a moist bias of ～ 10% at RHs ＜ 20%. During 1976-1995, several changes in cluding both instruments and reporting practice have been made at Vaisala stations and introduce errors to long-term RH variations.     

Impact of 10–60-Day Low-Frequency Steering Flows on Straight Northward-Moving Typhoon Tracks over the Western North Pacific

This study investigates the impact of low-frequency (intraseasonal and interannual) steering flows on straight northward-moving (defined as a meridional displacement two times greater than the zonal displacement) typhoons over the western North Pacific using observational data. The year-to-year change in the northward-moving tracks is affected by the interannual change in the location and intensity of the subtropical high. A strengthened northward steering flow east of 120°E and a weakened easterly steering flow south of the subtropical high favor more frequent straight northward tracks. Examining each of the individual northward-moving typhoons shows that they interact with three types of intraseasonal (10–60-day) background flows during their northward journey. The first type is the monsoon gyre pattern, in which the northward-moving typhoon is embedded in a closed cyclonic monsoon gyre circulation. The second type is the wave train pattern, where a cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity circulation is located to the west (east) of the northward-moving typhoon center. The third type is the mid-latitude trough pattern, in which the northward-moving typhoon center is located in the maximum vorticity region of the trough.     

Numerical Simulation of the Effect of the SST Anomalies in the Tropical Western Pacific on the Blocking Highs over the Northeastern Asia

The effects of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical western Pacific on the atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia are simulated by the IAP-GCM with an observed and idealized distributions of the SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific,respectively.Firstly,the atmospheric circulation anomalies during July and August,1980 are simulated by three anomalous experiments including the global SST anomaly experiment,the tropical SST anomaly experiment and the extratropical SST anomaly experiment,using the observed SST anomalies in 1980.It is shown that the SST anomalies in the tropical ocean greatly influence the formation and maintenance of the blocking high over the northeastern Asia,and may play a more important role than the SST anomalies in the extratropical ocean in the influence on the atmospheric circulation anomalies.Secondly,the effects of the SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific on the atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia are also simulated w     

On the Diurnal Cycle of Heavy Rainfall over the Sichuan Basin during 10–18 August 2020※

A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020, showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values, except on the first day. Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) in and to the southeast of the basin, which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin. The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing. The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present. The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south. It was the slantwise lifting of the warm, moist airflow above the cold air, often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent, that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.     

On the Multiple Equilibrium of the Development of Tropical Cyclone in Nonlinear CISK Model

By using non-static atmosphere equations including basic current, heating force and friction, we discuss the balance amplitude of vertical motion in the conditions of constant heating force, linear and non-linear interaction between large-scale ascending motion and diabatic heating force. In the non-linear condition, the multiple equilibrium feature of the tropical cyclone development is discussed and the reason of the sudden varying of tropical cyclone intensity is studied preliminarily.     

Roles of Multi-Scale Disturbances over the Tropical North Pacific in the Turnabout of 1997-98 El Ni■o

The space-time features of major vorticity disturbances over the western North Pacific during the 1997-98 E1 Ni(?)o ranked as one of the strongest events on record was investigated in this study.We distinguished the different roles that these disturbances had on different timescales in causing the reversal or turnabout of the E1 Ni(?)o event.Remarkable differences in the various disturbances of synoptic,intraseasonal,and interannual timescales were found in the time evolution,propagation,and in their contributions to the changes in near- equatorial zonal flow,which was crucial to the demise of the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.It is hypothesized that the westward-traveling synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific might be considered as a self-provided negative feedback from the E1 Ni(?)o and played an additional role in its reversal in comparison with other interannual internal and external forcings. In this case,the off-equatorial synoptic and intraseaonal fluctuations served as a stochastic forcing for the tropical ocean and gave rise to the aperiodicity or irregularity of the E1 Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation.     

Application of Equivalent Black Body Temperature in the Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Using equivalent black body temperature (TBB) data retrieved from meteorological satellite GMS-5 during 1996-2002,the correlation between the circular symmetric/asymmetric component of TBB and the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) at various time lags from 0 to 48 h is analyzed for the Northwest Pacific (0°-50°N,120°-155°E),excluding landed and near-coast samples.It is found that the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall,the circular symmetric component,and the sum of the amplitudes of tangential wave numbers 1-10 (SA10) of the TBB between the radii of 0.8°and 1.7°are significantly and negatively correlated with the TC intensity at various time lags from 0 to 48 h.Especially,the maximum 24-h lag correlation coefficients reach -0.52,-0.58,and -0.625,respectively. A statistical prediction scheme for TC intensity is developed based on climatic persistent,synoptic,and TBB factors by stepwise regression technique.It is found that the variance contribution of the averaged TBB over the ring between 1.0°and 1.5°from the TC center ranks the fourth in the equation for 12-h TC intensity prediction,and those of the total TBB near southeast of the eyewall and the difference between maximum and minimum TBB between 1.1°and 1.5°rank the third and fifth respectively in the 24-h forecast equation.It is also shown that,with TBB factors,the following predictions are improved compared to the scheme without TBB factors:48-h prediction for severe tropical storm (STS),12-h prediction for TC with a weakening rate greater than 15 m s~(-1)/12 h,24-h intensity prediction for TC with almost no intensity change,and 48-h prediction for TC intensifying faster than 10 m s~(-1)/48 h.