On the possibility of describing turbulent diffusion by means of a statistical-mechanical model

Zusammenfassung Die grundsätzliche Schwierigkeit der Konstruktion statistischer Mechanik der turbulenten Strömung besteht darin, dass es keinen allegemeinen Nachweis eines Theorems über die Eindeutigkeit der Navier-Stokes'schen Gleichung gibt. Unsere Bestrebungen wenden sich deshalb zum Studium solcher Bewegungen, die durch lineare Gleichungen ausgedrückt werden. Unter solche gehört auch die Bewegung der im Feld der turbulenten Strömung diffundierenden Teilchen, die am Modell einer zufälligen Teilchenbewegung im Phasenraum (x, p) studiert wird. Dabei wird vorausgesetzt, dass diese Bewegung aus einem gewissen Anfangszustand realisiert wird, dem ein bestimmtes, durch eine Störung des Systems bei dessen Beobachtung bedingtes anfängliches Unbestimmtheits-Gebiet entspricht. Daraus ergibt sich die Ergodizität (genauer gesagt die Quasi-Ergodizität) des Systems, die als Folge einer noch allgemeineren Eigenschaft des Systems mit Verschmierung (Durchmischung) des Anfangszustandes gilt. Vom Gesichtspunkt der Ergodizität und Irreversibilität des Prozesses wird die Struktur der statistischen Mechanik irreversibeler Prozesse studiert und ihre Beziehung zur Struktur der turbulenten Diffusion diskreter Teilchen gesucht.     

Tests of data assimilation and data initialization for the purposes of short-range weather forecast

Summary The initialization and assimilation of input data were studied and tested by the adiabatic version of a simple numerical model for short-range weather forecast.The initialization was based on the utilization of a digital filter technique. The method succeeded in removing high-frequency oscillations from prognostic pressure fields. However, excessive smoothing deteriorated the accuracy of the prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.The data assimilation was performed using the nudging method. Three versions of the nudging method in a splitting scheme were tested. The inclusion of the assimilation at the end of the integration step proved to be the best. The assimilation damped the oscillations of prognostic surface pressure fields and slightly improved the pressure prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.     

On the possibility of combining functional optimality criteria in a geodetic net

Summary The procedure of computing the optimum plan, satisfying the conditions of the criterion generated by a convex linear combination of two convex functional optimality criteria is discussed. A numerical example of computing the optimum plan of a geodetic positional net combining criteria of L-optimality and D-optimality is given.

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On the possibility of a convective vortex sheet in a fluid heated from below

Summary A theoretical explanation for equatorial accelerations is briefly reviewed. A simple laboratory dishpan experiment is suggested to explore the possibility of the formation in a fluid of what may be termed aconvective vortex sheet, characterized by a sharp zone of horizontal shear in the mean motion field and whose dynamics should tend to produce an equatorial acceleration.     

On the possibility of constructing a multicomponent trench-type deformometric station for seismic forecasting

The structure and theory of a tiltmeter with a liquid used as an inertial body and damper and a float with a string converter fitted with reliable remote system of arrestment used as acceleration indicator are described. The device’s calculated error is about ±4 × 10⁻⁵ (±2 × 10⁻¹⁰) g in the range of ±4 (±2 × 10⁻⁵) g. In the arrestment state, a second sensitive system of a capacitive type is turned on and the device starts to register seismic accelerations.     

On the possibility of long-range forecasts of geomagnetic activity

Summary The relation between geomagnetic activity and solar activity is studied in long intervals and in individual 11-year cycles, characterized by certain basic parameters, in connection with investigating the prognostic significance of long-term fluctuations of geomagnetic activity [1, 2]. A number of properties as well as sufficiently close relations with a prognostic significance have been found, such as the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, the 22-year cycle of change in the form of the behaviour of geomagnetic activity in 11-year cycles, long-term concurrence of solar and geomagnetic activity and its changes within the 11-year cycle, relations between solar and geomagnetic parameters characterizing the 11-year cycle.

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a auu uu u ¶rt; uaum amum ¶rt;u nma u u m¶rt; 11-mu ua am mu ¶rt; ¶rt;m nuauaum amumu.

     

On the formulation of a nonlinear atmospheric tidal theory from the meteorological primitive equations

Summary The theory of atmospheric tides is derived from the meteorological primitive equations by means of a perturbation expansion in Rossby number. Separation of the system for the first order variables into the standard horizontal and vertical structure equations of tidal theory is effected.     

Consequences of implementing a reservoir operation algorithm in a global hydrological model under multiple meteorological forcing

We investigated dam behaviours during high-flow events and their robustness against perturbations in meteorological conditions using the H08 global hydrological model. Differences in these behaviours were examined by comparing simulation runs, with and without dams and using multiple meteorological datasets, at a case-study site, Fort Peck Dam on the Missouri River, USA. The results demonstrated that dam-regulated river flow reduced temporal variability over large time periods and also dampened inter-forcing discrepancies in river discharge (smoothing effects). However, during wet years, differences in peak flow were accentuated downstream of the dam, resulting in divergence in simulated peak flow across the meteorological forcing (pulsing effect). The pulsing effect was detected at other major dams in global simulations. Depending upon the meteorological forcing, the dams act as a selective filter against high-flow events. Synergy between a generic dam scheme and differences in meteorological forcing data might introduce additional uncertainties in global hydrological simulations.     

The predictability of near-coastal currents using a baroclinic unstructured grid model

A limited domain, coastal ocean forecast system consisting of an unstructured grid model, a meteorological model, a regional ocean model, and a global tidal database is designed to be globally relocatable. For such a system to be viable, the predictability of coastal currents must be well understood with error sources clearly identified. To this end, the coastal forecast system is applied at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay in response to a Navy exercise. Two-day forecasts are produced for a 10-day period from 4 to 14 June 2010 and compared to real-time observations. Interplay between the temporal frequency of the regional model boundary forcing and the application of external tides to the coastal model impacts the tidal characteristics of the coastal current, even contributing a small phase error. Frequencies of at least 3 h are needed to resolve the tidal signal within the regional model; otherwise, externally applied tides from a database are needed to capture the tidal variability. Spatial resolution of the regional model (3 vs 1 km) does not impact skill of the current prediction. Tidal response of the system indicates excellent representation of the dominant M ₂ tide for water level and currents. Diurnal tides, especially K ₁, are amplified unrealistically with the application of coarse 27-km winds. Higher-resolution winds reduce current forecast error with the exception of wind originating from the SSW, SSE, and E. These winds run shore parallel and are subject to strong interaction with the shoreline that is poorly represented even by the 3-km wind fields. The vertical distribution of currents is also well predicted by the coastal model. Spatial and temporal resolution of the wind forcing including areas close to the shoreline is the most critical component for accurate current forecasts. Additionally, it is demonstrated that wind resolution plays a large role in establishing realistic thermal and density structures in upwelling prone regions.     

On the possibility of obtaining relative paleointensities from lake sediments

Relative paleointensities are obtained from a 6-m sediment core from Lake St. Croix, Minnesota, spanning the time range from 445 to 1740 years B.P. To normalize the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) for variations in the magnetic content, a laboratory-induced remanence is chosen, whose alternating field (AF) demagnetization curves most closely resemble the NRM demagnetization curves. By plotting the ratio of the NRM to the normalizing remanence versus AF demagnetizing field, H_AF, for samples of the same sediment horizon, as well as for samples from different horizons, estimates are obtained for expected uncertainties in the relative paleointensities. For the Lake St. Croix sediments the anhysteretic remanence (ARM) demagnetization curves are very similar to those of the NRM's, and ARM is therefore used as the normalization parameter. Because the sediment exhibits homogeneous remanence properties throughout, and H_AF = 100Oe is the optimum “cleaning” field for the entire core, NRM₁₀₀/ARM₁₀₀ is evaluated to represent the fluctuations of the relative paleointensity. Our relative paleointensity data exhibit the same general features as obtained from archeomagnetic studies. The intensity increases as one goes back in time with a peak near 800 years B.P., representing an increase in the intensity of up to 60%. Apparent periodicities in the intensity of 300–400 years are observed.     

On the possibility of using an electromagnetic ionosphere in global MHD simulations

Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the Earths magnetosphere must be coupled with a dynamical ionospheric module in order to give realistic results. The usual approach is to compute the Reld-aligned current (FAC) from the magnetospheric MHD variables at the ionospheric boundary. The ionospheric potential is solved from an elliptic equation using the FAC as a source term. The plasma velocity at the boundary is the E × B velocity associated with the ionospheric potential. Contemporary global MHD simulations which include a serious ionospheric model use this method, which we call the electrostatic approach in this paper. We study the possibility of reversing the flow of information through the ionosphere: the magnetosphere gives the electric Reld to the ionosphere. The Reld is not necessarily electrostatic, thus we will call this scheme electromagnetic. The electric Reld determines the horizontal ionospheric current. The divergence of the horizontal current gives the FAC, which is used as a boundary condition for MHD equations. We derive the necessary formulas and discuss the validity of the approximations necessarily involved. It is concluded that the electromagnetic ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling scheme is a serious candidate for future global MHD simulators, although a few problem areas still remain. At minimum, it should be investigated further to discover whether there are any differences in the simulation using the electrostatic or the electromagnetic ionospheric coupling.     

民航气象观测的中国中东部大气边界层廓线数据的评估与应用

本文从民航气象报告(AMDAR)数据库中提取了2008—2019年期间我国中东部18个机场飞机起飞和降落期间的大气边界层(ABL)廓线数据,并利用常规探空数据评估了不同季节和高度范围的AMDAR数据准确性及其随探空站与机场距离和飞行状态的变化.与常规探空数据相比,低层(P>850 hPa)的AMDAR温度和风分量的均方根误差(RMSE)均比较高层(850~500 hPa)小,且各高度层上的温度和风分量的RMSE都随间隔距离的增加而增大.相对而言,飞行状态对AMDAR数据准确性的影响很小.在间隔距离小于50 km且P>850 hPa高度层范围内,温度、纬向风和经向风的平均RMSE分别为0.68~0.83 K、1.48~1.62 m·s^-1和1.73~1.81 m·s^-1.相比于RMSE,对应的平均偏差都显著更小,且随间隔距离无明显变化.数据应用示例表明,AMDAR廓线数据由于其较高的时间分辨率,不仅可以反映ABL结构的日变化特征,还可用于研究ABL局地环流特征.基于18个机场AMDAR廓线数据分析发现,我国远内陆、干燥地区大气边界层高度(ABLH)具有较强的日变化,尤其是在春夏两季,而沿海和近内陆地区ABLH的日变化强度和季节差异都较小.

     

On the possibility of crater formation associated with an ascending plume

A hypothetical possibility of a qualitative explanation of large crater formation on the surfaces of the Moon and Mercury is discussed in terms of the concept of thermal mantle plumes. Prerequisites to this hypothesis are revealed under the assumption that the model equation of state of SiO₂ exhibiting an anomaly (a negative coefficient of thermal expansion) in the range of states approximately corresponding to average conditions typical of mantles of minor planets is applicable, in a first approximation, to mantle material. The anomaly reduces the buoyancy of hot plume material in such a way that, under conditions of moderate overheating, only relatively high columns comparable in size to the mantle are capable of ascending from the mantle bottom to the crust; allows cold peripheral material surrounding the hot column to be pushed away; causes compaction of the vertical zone of the contact of the column with the surrounding medium at the first stages after the plume ascent; and leads to compaction of the deep mantle due to the long-term heat supply. Such phenomena can lead to vertical craterlike deformations of the crust in areas of ascending large plumes whose presence can be supposed at early stages of the existence of minor planets. Significant implications of such an anomaly for geophysical processes can also be postulated.