海平面上升对海南岛沿海地区的影响

因气候变暖导致的海平面上升是全球面临的海洋问题。为加强海南岛的海洋防灾减灾工作,保障其沿海地区的生态环境和经济社会发展,文章在调查评估的基础上,分析海平面上升对海南岛沿海地区的影响,并提出对策建议。研究结果表明:我国沿海海平面总体呈波动上升趋势,海南岛沿海海平面的上升速率居全国之首;海平面上升对海南岛沿海地区的影响主要包括淹没滨海低地和减小旅游区沙滩面积,加重风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、海水入侵和土壤盐渍化、洪涝的灾害程度以及影响海岸防护设施等方面;在海南岛沿海地区发展中,应充分考虑海平面上升的因素,加强灾害风险抵御能力建设、城市科学规划、海平面观测和监测以及受损岸线整治修复等工作。     

全球变暖增高热相关死亡率

气候对人类的影响是显著的,更是多方面的。气候变化和其他因素的综合作用首先可能会对生态系统造成不可逆的影响。而气候变化导致的海平面上升,更会使沿海地区遭受严重的洪涝、风暴     

美国政府重大海洋工作措施

美国沿海地区的面积占全国土地面积的10％,人口占全国的50％以上,到2010年,沿海地区人口将占全国的60％,沿海地区国内生产总值(GDP)占全国的30％以上。沿海地区经济快速增长造成一系列环境问题。美国环境保护局称:美国约1/3的河口及沿岸水域由于不安全而已不宜于渔业或游泳。美国环境保护局(EPA)列举了美国沿海近年来发生的一些典型环境事件:     

美国沿海地区人口变化趋势

本文运用美国人口普查局、美国经济调查局提供的有关人口统计方面的重要数据,重点分析研究1980—2008年美国沿海地区的人口变化情况,以及美国沿海地区历史性人口趋势和短期人口变化情况,揭示了美国沿海地区人口变化的特征及其居住沿海地区的原因。     

中国沿海地区对全球变化的响应及风险研究

中国沿海地区对全球变化的响应及风险具有高度的复杂性及不确定性,亟需深入开展相关研究。本研究着重回顾了近年来有关我国沿海地区陆域及海域对全球变化的响应特征、机制以及风险的若干研究成果。分析表明,自1960年代以来,全球变暖背景下我国沿海地区陆域及相邻海域的表面温度上升趋势十分显著,上升幅度和速率均高于全球平均值;生物与非生物的物候变化显著,温暖期(春、秋季)明显变长,并以东中国海(渤、黄、东海)最为显著;海洋物种地理分布变化、生物季节演替和群落结构与功能异常突显,赤潮、绿潮等生态灾害频繁,赤潮有年代际增加现象,热带海域珊瑚白化加剧。分析还表明,自1980年以来,我国沿海地区出现越来越多的高温热浪,沿海海平面持续上升并不断达到新高度,特别是破纪录的极端高海温事件、超强台风-风暴潮和极端高水位频发,这使得沿海地区社会-生态系统的气候暴露度不断增大;同时,沿岸海域富营养化、大规模围填海、破坏性以及过度捕捞等人类活动加剧了社会-生态系统的气候脆弱性,沿海地区的洪涝灾害严重,滨海湿地生境和生物多样性减少。未来不同气候情景下中国东部尤其是东中国海很可能是全球升温和海平面上升幅度最大的海区之一。这表明未来我国沿海地区的灾害风险格局趋于复杂多变。为此,本研究指出了急需深入研究我国沿海地区全球变化综合风险的若干科学问题与关键技术。     

扎实推进沿海地区大发展 加快建设新的经济增长极

江苏省沿海地区是长三角的重要组成部分,区位优势独特,自然资源丰富,经济腹地广阔,战略地位重要.党中央、国务院高度重视江苏沿海地区发展,胡锦涛总书记、温家宝总理等中央领导同志先后对江苏沿海地区发展作出了一系列重要指示.     

中国沿海海平面上升风险区划方法研究

气候变化引起的海平面上升将给沿海地区社会经济发展和生态环境带来严重的影响。中国沿海地区地势低平极易受到海平面上升的直接影响,本文研究提出了一套适用于中国沿海地区海平面上升风险区划的方法,评估中国地区海平面上升的风险,分别按照省级评估单元和市级评估单元区划中国沿海地区的海平面上升风险,并提出风险管理的建议。     

论海洋经济竞争力评价理论框架、影响因素

海洋经济已经成为沿海地区经济发展的重要组成部分,沿海地区在激烈的市场竞争中如何取得竞争优势,科学的理论指导思想,准确把握其构成因素和特征是沿海地区提升其海洋经济竞争力的先决条件。     

福建沿海港口建设中的活动断裂与地震安全

本文研究了福建沿海港湾的活动断裂与地震安全问题,结果表明,福建沿海地区NE、NW向断裂发育,晚更新世以来都具有明显的张性活动,严格地控制了沿海湾的形成和发育,福建沿海地区历史上地震活动频繁,发生过多次破坏性地震。因此,在港口建设中应认真研究活动断裂与地震安全问题。     

山东半岛蓝色经济区建设发展依存要素竞争力研究

海洋经济已经成为沿海地区经济发展的重要组成部分,沿海地区在激烈的市场竞争中如何取得竞争优势,科学的理论指导思想,准确把握其构成因和特征是沿海地区提升其蓝色经济发展依存要素竞争力的先决条件。     

Coastal risk management: How to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk?

Coastal flood risk is defined as a product of probability of event and its effect, measured in terms of damage. The paper is focused on coastal management strategies aimed to decrease risk by decreasing potential damage. We review socio-economic literature to show that total flood damage depends on individual location choices in the housing market and on individual flood risk awareness. Low flood risk awareness leads to inefficient spatial developments and increased flood risk. We show that personal experience, risk communication, financial instruments like insurance from flooding and technical instruments like building on high elevations, are factors that increase individual risk awareness. Evidence that these factors indeed affect housing prices and land use patterns is provided. We discuss proactive instruments that can be used in coastal zone management in the Netherlands to increase individual risk awareness. We argue that policy-makers may create incentives giving individuals a possibility to make location choices that lead to less total flood risk in the coastal zone area.     

System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities

—In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n     

近岸流系与长江入海悬浮泥沙输移扩散

通过两年较完整的序列 NOAA/AVHRR 数据和实测含沙量资料,利用考虑近岸Ⅱ类水体大气校正的泥沙定量反演算法,获得了较高精度的河口高浓度泥沙遥感反演模式;利用泥沙浓度分级图和反映流系特征的温度图象,系统分析了长江口悬浮泥沙扩散途径、范围及其与近岸流系的关系。影响长江入海悬浮泥沙扩散的近岸流系主要包括台湾暖流、黄海混合水、苏北沿岸流及浙江沿岸流等。冬季,近岸流系比较稳定,其配置状况在一定程度上影响着苏北沿岸泥沙流向长江口的扩散,并制约着入海悬浮泥沙的扩散途径;洪季,长江入海径流量是影响悬浮泥沙扩散的重要因子。同时,长江冲淡水、浙江沿岸流共同形成的冷水区与台湾暖流水之间锋面的强度,也对悬浮泥沙和冲淡水的扩散方向和范围有重要影响;春、秋两季入海悬浮泥沙的扩散型式分别向夏、冬季的分布格局过渡。此外,风应力显著影响着浑水区的扩散方向和范围。风浪掀沙引起的河口泥沙再悬浮,可使近岸泥沙扩散范围增大。     

Use of high water marks and eyewitness accounts to delineate flooded coastal areas: The case of Storm Johanna (10 March 2008) in Brittany,France

Mapping flooded coastal areas can be carried out using different methods and can promote a better understanding and management of coastal flood risks. The delineation of the coastal areas in western Brittany inundated during a storm that came through on 10 March 2008 was determined based on eyewitness accounts and physical marks noted in situ. Using this methodology, 25 sites were mapped, representing an overall flooded area of more than 30 ha. The delineation of the flooded areas was compared with the official French (PPR-SM) flood zones, revealing some discrepancies. Finally, two case studies illustrate how coastal flood mapping can be useful for validating hydrodynamic models.     

Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications

In this paper we outline the development and application of a simple two-dimensional hydraulic model for use in assessments of coastal flood risk. Such probabilistic assessments typically need evaluation of many thousands of model simulations and hence computationally efficient codes of the type described here are required. The code, LISFLOOD-FP, uses a storage cell approach discretized as a regular grid and calculates the flux between cells explicitly using analytical relationships derived from uniform flow theory. The resulting saving in computational cost allows fine spatial resolution simulations of regional scale flooding problems within minutes or a few hours on a standard desktop PC. The development of the code for coastal applications is described, followed by an evaluation of its performance against four test cases representing a variety of flooding problems at different scales. For three of these cases an observed flood extent is available to compare to model predictions. In each case the model is able to match the observed shoreline to within the error of the of the observed flow, topography and validation data and outperforms a non-model flood extent prediction made using a simple Geographical Information System (GIS) technique.     

胶东半岛南部典型海湾地貌过程对滩涂养殖的响应

应用3S技术和海湾涨/落潮不对称原理,研究了最近40年来胶东半岛南部四个典型潮汐汊道海湾的动力地貌演变,分析了大面积修建养殖池对海湾地貌过程的影响。结果表明,最近30年来4个海湾的海岸地貌类型面积、空间分布格局、地貌类型转换、地貌结构和地貌冲淤状态发生了显著改变。在大面积养殖池被围建以前的1960s年代末到1980s年代初,丁字湾处于涨潮不对称状态但不对称程度增高,乳山湾、五垒岛湾和靖海湾也处于涨潮不对称状态但不对称程度在降低。最近30年来的大面积滩涂养殖池修建,使丁字湾由不断增强的涨潮不对称向落潮不对称状态逆转,使五垒岛湾、靖海湾由涨潮不对称向落潮不对称状态的转化提前,使乳山湾由涨潮不对称向落潮不对称状态的转化延缓。     

An approach to assess flooding and erosion risk for open beaches in a changing climate

This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences.     

Analysis of the coastal Mississippi storm surge hazard

Following the extreme flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) commissioned a study to update the Mississippi coastal flood hazard maps. The project included development and application of new methods incorporating the most recent advances in numerical modeling of storms and coastal hydrodynamics, analysis of the storm climatology, and flood hazard evaluation. This paper discusses the methods that were used and how they were applied to the coast of the State of Mississippi.     

Effects of DEM Resolution on Modeling Coastal Flood Vulnerability

Abstract

This article examines whether Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution affects the accuracy of predicted coastal inundation extent using LISFLOOD-FP, with application to a sandy coastline in New Jersey. DEMs with resolution ranging from 10 to 100 m were created using coastal elevation data from NOAA, using the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model was developed in LISFLOOD-FP using each DEM, all of which were calibrated and validated against an observed 24-h tidal cycle and used to simulate a 1.5 m storm surge. While differences in predicted inundated area from all models were within 1.0%, model performance and computational time worsened and decreased with coarser DEM resolution, respectively. This implied that using a structured grid model for modeling coastal flood vulnerability is based on two trade-offs: high DEM resolution coupled with computational intensity, but higher precision in model predictions, and vice versa. Furthermore, water depth predictions from all DEMs were consistent. Using an integrated numerical modeling and GIS approach, a two-scale modeling strategy, where a coarse DEM is used to predict water levels for projection onto a fine DEM was found to be an effective, and computationally efficient approach for obtaining reliable estimates of coastal inundation extent.     

黄河口滨海区冲淤演变与潮流不对称

涨落潮不对称是河口滨海区流场的重要特征,在泥沙输运和地貌演变过程中扮演着重要的角色.本文基于实测水深地形、沉积物粒度、水文泥沙观测等资料,分析了黄河口滨海区的冲淤变化、泥沙输运和沉积物特征.同时,本文利用Delft 3D模型模拟了黄河口滨海区的流场,并计算了不同条件下涨落潮流速的不对称分布,结合上述分析,探讨了黄河口滨...