禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及影响因子

为了解长江十年禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及其影响因子,于2020年9月(秋季)、12月(冬季)和2021年4月(春季)、7月(夏季),采用渔获物抽样和水声学探测相结合的方法对柘林水库鱼类群落和资源密度的时空动态进行调查,并利用广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)识别了影响鱼类资源变化的关键因子。调查期间共采集鱼类5目12科36属54种,鲤形目鱼类占比最高为70.38%,鳙(Hypophthalmichthys nobilis)、(Hemiculter leucisculus)和黄尾鲴(Xenocypris davidi)为优势种。水声学探测结果表明,鱼类密度(ind./1000 m³)具有明显的时空异质性,春、夏季(10.42±17.57和16.34±11.89)显著高于秋、冬季(2.74±3.33和2.02±5.07),中游(3.18±4.76)则显著低于上、下游(11.20±15.66和5.37±9.33)。GAM模型对鱼类密度的总偏差解释率为84.6%,其中经纬度、季节、叶绿素a浓度和溶解氧对鱼类密度的影响效应显著,水深和总氮的影响不显著。鱼类主要分布在29.12°~29.30°N,115.05°~115.15°E区域,显著影响鱼类分布的溶解氧和叶绿素a浓度范围分别为9~12 mg/L和5~15 μg/L。柘林水库鱼类呈现小型化趋势,为维护生态系统稳定性和鱼类多样性,后续需加强对鱼类群落结构和时空分布格局影响的机制方面的相关研究。     

江西柘林湖富营养化现状与藻类时空分布特征

江西柘林湖是首批入围国家良好湖泊保护专项的示范湖泊.为揭示柘林湖富营养化现状与藻类时空演替特征,于2012年8月至2013年7月对全湖及主要入湖支流进行了周年采样分析,结果表明:柘林湖主要营养盐在地表水Ⅲ类以内,处于中营养状态.全湖藻类演替以蓝藻-硅藻交替为主,夏季以鱼腥藻和微囊藻为优势种,冬季直链藻、小环藻和针杆藻占优.藻类空间分布呈现西部高于东部、上游高于下游的特征,西部部分湖区夏季甚至出现了鱼腥藻水华.柘林湖3个大型饮用水源地中东渡水源地夏季也同样面临蓝藻水华问题,但蓝藻毒素未超标.在重点监测的4条柘林湖主要入湖支流中,3条支流的藻类夏、冬季细胞丰度均在1×107cells/L以下,但烟港水的藻细胞丰度夏、冬季分别接近和超过该界限,应加以警惕并采取适当措施.枯水期水位变化、水体分层、较低的水体透明度和较长的滞留时间是影响柘林湖局部湖区蓝藻水华形成的关键因素.     

1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征

基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站1960-2012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPWMK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在3-10月,其中3-6月主要表现为"旱转涝",7-10月主要表现为"涝转旱",且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以"涝转旱"事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强"涝转旱"事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强"旱转涝"事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1a和21～35a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极...     

柘林水库地震研究喜获成果

柘林水库位于江西省西北部的修水中游,横跨永修、武宁二县。主坝系粘土心墙土石坝,高63.5米;水库库容79.2亿立方米,是我国目前最大的土坝工程。 水库于1972年1月截流蓄水,至同年10月,库水位上升31米多,接连诱发了3.2级和3.0级地震(其时,较设计正常高水位低13米左右,库容则不及正常高水位时的三分之一),工程本身又存在一些问题。为保障工程及下游人民的安全,水库长期低水位运行,经济技术效益未能充分发挥。     

鄱阳湖流域柘林水库秋季浮游植物群落结构及其构建过程驱动机制

研究环境过滤过程和空间扩散限制过程在构建水生浮游植物群落结构中的作用是了解这些因素如何驱动物种分布和影响群落结构的关键步骤.为了揭示鄱阳湖流域柘林水库浮游植物群落结构特征与环境因子的关系,以及明确环境因子和空间扩散限制性因子在浮游植物群落构建过程中的影响机制,于2020年10月,对柘林水库33个采样点的浮游植物和水质理...     

短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征研究

本文对2008—2010年隆尧地磁台站的地磁水平分量H和磁偏角D的秒数据进行了短时快速傅里叶变换,按连续型地磁脉动Pc2—Pc6所对应的频率范围对频谱进行了频段划分,在此基础上研究了各频段频谱总幅值即短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征.在时间变化上,同一年中不同频段的幅值具有相似的变化规律,每年的幅变特性与该年对应的Vr指数的时间分布也具有一致的变化形态,仅仅在变化的幅度上存在差异.磁偏角D的幅值和VrD均呈现出显著的季节变化特征,而水平分量H的幅值和VrH却不显著.在空间变化上,各频段幅值均随地磁纬度的增加而增大,随地方时变化呈现出双峰双谷的特征.     

滇西地震活动群体时空分布特征研究

研究区域、资料和地震活动概述 滇西地区(本文选择λ_E:97.5°—101°,φ_N:24°—28°的3.5°×4°区域)位于众所周知的川滇菱形块体西北侧南段,该区以三大经向构造为主:怒江断裂、澜沧江断裂及著名的红河深大断裂,还伴有少量北东向构造。这里地震活动除频度较高外,强度亦颇大,历史上曾有1515年永胜7.0级大震,本世纪以来又相继发生了1925年大理7.0级和1976     

广东长潭水库富营养化与浮游植物分布特征

为掌握梅州市长潭水库富营养化状态与浮游植物分布特征,为控制藻类水华暴发提供科学依据,2011年10月至2012年7月,在长潭水库关键断面选取10个监测点,测定水体理化特征、浮游植物种类、丰度等指标,采用营养状态指数(TLI)和Shannon-Wiener多样性指数法对水质污染现状进行评价,并分析浮游植物类群分布特征.结果表明:长潭水库水体富营养状态在4、10和12月处于中营养级,7月份处于富营养级,营养指数从库区中游上游逐渐降低;观测期间共检出浮游植物4门11科16属,通过丰度比较,发现长潭水库以蓝绿藻为优势种,并且季节变化明显,总体表现为7月 >4月 >10月 >12月;藻类多样性指数分析显示,水库水体污染水平为中度,中游和库区(除7月)为轻度污染,与综合营养指数结果一致;长潭水库污染源调查分析结果表明,该水库主要为氮、磷污染,污染源主要为上游禽畜养殖废水.     

短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征研究

本文对2008—2010年隆尧地磁台站的地磁水平分量H和磁偏角D的秒数据进行了短时快速傅里叶变换,按连续型地磁脉动Pc2—Pc6所对应的频率范围对频谱进行了频段划分,在此基础上研究了各频段频谱总幅值即短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征.在时间变化上,同一年中不同频段的幅值具有相似的变化规律,每年的幅变特性与该年对应的Vr指数的时间分布也具有一致的变化形态,仅仅在变化的幅度上存在差异.磁偏角D的幅值和VrD均呈现出显著的季节变化特征,而水平分量H的幅值和VrH却不显著.在空间变化上,各频段幅值均随地磁纬度的增加而增大,随地方时变化呈现出双峰双谷的特征.     

雅江地震序列时空分布特征

2001年2月14日和2月23日在四川省雅江县发生Ms5.0地震，对这两次地震和余震进行了时，空，强特征的初步分析研究，从能量分布的角度看雅江地震是前－主－余震型地震，两次地震破裂面构成共轭破裂。     

Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal droughts in the Pearl River basin,China

Forecasting of droughts is essential for developing measures for mitigation of drought hazards and for reducing drought-induced loss. In this study, droughts were characterized by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index with a time scale of 3 months. Copula-based probabilistic forecasting models were developed to predict drought occurrences. Results indicated higher probability of occurrence of seasonal droughts after the occurrence of more severe seasonal droughts, and extreme drought in winter tended to persist with higher probability till spring, whereas extreme drought in autumn might not probably last to winter. Furthermore, results indicated high probability of occurrence of droughts in southeast parts of the Pearl River basin during spring to winter. Thus, droughts in the Pearl River basin are subject to lengthening duration, particularly in the southeastern part of the basin. It should be noted here that the southeastern part is densely populated with a high degree of socioeconomic development. Thus, higher probability of droughts in the southeastern part should attract considerable concern. Higher drought risk was also identified in the western part of the basin. Results of this study provide a theoretical framework for water resources management and conservation of eco-environment in the Pearl River basin in a changing climate, and may serve as a reference for evaluation of drought risk in other regions of the world.     

Sediment transferring function of the lower reaches of the Yellow River influenced by drainage basin factors and human activities

Since 1986, with a sharp decrease in water dis-charges, the Yellow River has entered a period charac-terized by low discharges and seasonally occurring dry-ups[1,2]. Since 1999, more strict management of water diversion has been imposed, and therefore the dry-ups have been well under control. However, the lower reaches of the Yellow River is still predominated by low-discharges, and has become a man-induced shrinking river. In the past 40 years, significant effect of soil and water conservat…     

Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River

Reconstruction of high-resolution historical climatic series is the key issue for Past Global Changes (PAGES) and Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), the two core projects of the international research programme on global changes. High-resolu- tion historical climatic data are vital for our under-standing the mechanisms of climatic variability, im-proving climate model, and distinguishing anthropo-genic effects from the natural forcing on climate change[1,2]. China, with co…     

丹江口水库上游武当山剑河水质空间差异性分析

丹江口水库是国家南水北调中线工程的水源地,水质是决定工程成败的关键因素之一,而始终困扰着水库水质的是入库河流的水污染治理问题.本文以丹江口水库上游的武当山剑河流域为研究对象,在水环境调查基础上,选择有代表性的水质参数及人为干扰因子对剑河进行水质空间差异性分析.根据河流地理特征,将剑河划分为上游、中游、下游和太极湖河段调查单元,其水环境管理目标分别为地表水Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅲ类标准(GB/T 3838 2002).结果表明:在投肥养鱼、污水管网缺损和污水处理率低等因素的影响下,剑河全河段总氮(TN)超标比较严重,4个调查单元均达不到水环境管理目标要求.总磷(TP)、化学需氧量(COD_Cr)、氨氮(NH₃-N)在上游、中游河段分别达到地表水Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类管理要求,但在下游分别只有64%、64%和18%达到Ⅳ类水质要求,在太极湖河段Ⅲ类水质达标率分别为71%、29%和0.污染物浓度整体呈现下游 >太极湖河段 >上游 >中游的趋势,其中TN的污染最为严重,浓度范围为2.27~13.51 mg/L,其次为NH₃-N(0.25~13.31 mg/L)、COD_Cr(7.0~95.5 mg/L)和TP浓度(0.01~0.79 mg/L)相对较低,并不构成剑河的核心污染.通过水质空间差异性分析,提出了针对性的污染源削减方案,可以为河流水污染控制和丹江口水库水质管理提供科学依据.     

Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin in North China: Changing properties and causes

The Mann–Kendall test, composite analysis, and 68 high‐quality meteorological stations were used to explore the spatiotemporal variations and causes of precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin (YRB) during the period of 1960–2011. Results showed that (a) the YRB is characterized by decreases of most precipitation indices, excluding the simple daily intensity index, which has increasing trends in most locations, suggesting that the intensity of rainfall and the probability of occurrence of droughts have increased during the last decades. (b) Trends of extreme precipitation show mixed patterns in the lower reach of the YRB, where drought–flood disasters have increased. The increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in consecutive wet days in recent years over the northwestern portions of the YRB indicate that the intensity and frequency of above‐normal precipitation have been trending upward in domains. In the central‐south YRB, the maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation on extremely wet days (R99p) have significantly increased, whereas the number of consecutive dry days has declined; these trends suggest that the intensity of precipitation extremes has increased in those regions, although the frequency of extreme and total rainfall has decreased. (c) The spatial distributions of seasonal trends in RX1day and maximum 5‐day precipitation (RX5day) exhibited less spatial coherence, and winter is becoming the wettest season regionwide, particularly over the central‐south YRB. (d) There were multiple and overlapping cycles of variability for most precipitation indices, indicating variations of time and frequency. (e) Elevation is intimately correlated with precipitation indices, and a weakening East Asian summer monsoon during 1986–2011 compared to that in 1960–1985 may have played an important role in the declines in most indices over the YRB. Therefore, the combined effects from local and teleconnection forcing factors have collectively influenced the variations in precipitation extremes across the YRB. This study may provide valuable evidence for the effective management of water resources and the conduct of agricultural activities at the basin scale.     

长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征

在1960-2005年长江流域147气象观测站汛期4-9月逐日降水资料基础上,通过计算逐站大于95th强降水及其间隔天数、小于1.27mm/d的持续天数,分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征,并建立概率分布模式.研究发现,长江上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心,也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区.汛期降水强度小于1.27mm/d的天数,在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多.但此处干旱持续天数最短,干旱形式并不严重.而在金沙江上、下游,洞庭湖流域,鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长.长江流域大于95th强降水的间隔天数与小于1.27mm/d的干旱持续天数服从Weibull-Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征.     

太湖流域上游西苕溪支流的营养状态特征及成因分析

为了解太湖流域上游支流水体的营养状态特征及流域附近土地利用对水质的影响,选取了入湖水系西苕溪的10条主要支流进行了野外采样和实验室研究.研究结果表明,支流总磷(TP)、颗粒磷(PP)、总溶解性磷(TDP)、总氮(TN)、铵态氮(NH+4-N)、硝态氮(NO-3-N)含量季节间差异较大,TP含量范围为0.033~0.205 mg/L,PP含量范围为0.007~0.104 mg/L,TN含量范围为2.014~5.921 mg/L,NH+4-N含量范围0.021~1.659 mg/L,NO-3-N含量范围1.082~3.415mg/L,COD范围为6.5~15.5 mg/L.总体上呈现为枯水期平水期丰水期.部分支流受到不同程度的氮污染.利用水质参数进行聚类分析,可以将10条支流分成4类,其水体营养特征与周围环境相联系.支流营养盐、COD的通量明显受流量控制,表现为丰水期平水期枯水期.土地利用类型的差异是导致其水质变化的主要原因,耕地和居民地主要起源的作用,林地和草地主要起汇的作用.在丰水期和枯水期,对各指标影响最大的土地利用类型为耕地和林地;在平水期,对TP影响最大的是居民地,而对TN影响最大的是林地.     

Spatial distribution and temporal trends in daily and monthly precipitation concentration indices in the upper reaches of the Huai River, China

Understanding precipitation variations on various timescales and their correlations is important for assessment of flood risk and utilization of water resources. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation concentration in the upper reaches of the Huai River, China, were investigated using two indices: the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) for measuring seasonality and daily heterogeneity using monthly and daily precipitation series, respectively. In particular, the trends of PCI and CI were tested by the Mann–Kendall method, and relationship among PCI, CI and percentage of precipitation contributed by the rainiest days was analyzed by the linear correlation analysis. The results show a significant seasonality of the rainfall distribution and very in homogeneous temporal distribution of the daily rainfall in the south part of the study area, especially in the three reservoirs. Positive trends in the PCI and CI were found at most stations, although none of the PCI trends were statistically significant. Daily heterogeneity of the rainfall in a year is highly correlated with the heavy rainfall amount of the 15 % rainiest days, and seasonality in rainfall distribution over a year can be partly explained by the daily rainfall heterogeneity.     

Quantitative analysis of the impact of droughts and floods on internal wars in China over the last 500 years

Although many large-N quantitative studies have evidenced the adverse effects of climatic extremes on social stability in China during the historical period, most of them rely on temperature and precipitation as major explanatory variables, while the influence of floods and droughts on social crises is rarely measured. Furthermore, a comparison of the climate-society nexus among different geographic regions and at different temporal scales is missing in those studies. To address this knowledge gap,this study examines quantitatively the influence of floods and droughts on internal wars in three agro-ecological(rice, wheat,and pastoral) regions in China in AD1470–1911. Poisson regression and wavelet transform coherence analyses are applied to allow for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the climate-war nexus. Results show that floods and droughts are significant in driving internal wars in historical China, but are characterized by strong regional variation. In the rice region, floods trigger internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the wheat region, both floods and droughts cause internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the pastoral region, internal wars are associated with floods only at the multi-decadal time scale. In addition, the multi-decadal coherence between hydro-climatic extremes and internal wars in all three of the agro-ecological regions is only significant in periods in which population density is increasing or the upper limit of regional carrying capacity is being reached. The above results imply that the climate-war nexus is mediated by regional geographic factors such as physical environmental setting and population pressure. Hence, we encourage researchers who study the historical human-climate relationship to boil down data according to geographic regions in the course of statistical analysis and to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.