数字化气氡在井（泉）地震监测中的研究进展

氡是地下流体预报地震的灵敏组分之一,数字化气氡观测已经成为地震监测的一种重要手段。近年来,一些地震台站能够观测到气氡测值出现的震前异常、震后效应以及同震效应等变化,本文对这些异常变化研究进行总结并展开讨论;另外,对于在数字化气氡观测过程中可能产生干扰的影响因素,分别从自然环境、仪器系统、人为干扰不同方面进行分析归纳。      

Population Health, Environment and Economic Development

There are fundamental links between population health, environment and economic development. The ultimate goal of economic development is to improve the quality of human life and increase people's longevity. This goal cannot be achieved without a clean and prosperous Earth. There has been increasing evidence showing that the expansion of economic activities can have significant impacts on the environment and can cause large-scale and sometimes irreversible environmental changes. It is beyond reasonable doubt that these changes will have serious public health consequences. How to tackle these issues is a unprecedented challenge to scientists and policy-makers. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of human activities on stream flow in the Biliu River basin,China

The obvious decline in stream flow to the Biliu River reservoir over the period 1990–2005 has raised increasing concerns. Climate change and human activities, which mainly include land use changes, hydraulic constructions and artificial water consumption, are considered to be the most likely reasons for the decline in stream flow. This study centres on a detailed analysis of the runoff response to changes in human activities. Using a distributed hydrological model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), we simulated runoffs under different human activity and climate scenarios to understand how each scenario impacts stream flow. The results show that artificial water consumption correlates with the precipitation (wet, normal and dry) of the year in question and is responsible for most of the decrease in runoff during each period and for each different wetness year. A Fuzzy Inference Model is also used to find the relationship between the precipitation and artificial water consumption for different years, as well as to make inferences regarding the future average impact on runoff. Land use changes in the past have increased the runoff by only a small amount, while another middle reservoir (Yunshi) has been responsible for a decrease in runoff since operation began in 2001. We generalized the characteristics of the human activities to predict future runoff using climate change scenarios. The future annual flow will increase by approximately 10% from 2011 to 2030 under normal human activities and future climate change scenarios, as indicated by climate scenarios with a particularly wet year in the next 20 years. This study could serve as a framework to analyse and predict the potential impacts of changes both in the climate and human activities on runoff, which can be used to inform the decision making on the river basin planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How natural are Alpine mountain rivers? Evidence from the Italian Alps

Historical, human‐induced channel adjustments in lowland gravel‐bed rivers have been documented in several geographical contexts worldwide. In particular, it is now widely accepted that the vast majority of European rivers are far from any natural, reference state prior to anthropic disturbances, and a ‘complete’ restoration is hardly achievable. However, few investigations have addressed changes that have occurred in mountain rivers of the Alps, and these channels are commonly reckoned quite ‘natural’ by society. This paper intends to describe how human pressure on Italian Alpine basins has been quite relevant for several centuries – in terms of land‐use variations, in‐channel structures, timber transport (splash damming) and riparian vegetation management – such that nowadays ‘reference conditions’ cannot be found even in small mountain creeks. In addition, recent natural climatic variations (e.g. the Little Ice Age) are superimposed on human disturbances, thus defying the definition of any ‘equilibrium’ morphological conditions even under ‘human‐free’ states. A summary of published as well as unpublished works on historical channel adjustments in rivers of the Italian Alps is presented in order to document the impacts deriving from human pressure at different basin scales and for different river morphologies, from steep confined streams to large unconfined rivers. General options for river management and restoration actions aiming to combine geomorphological functionality and flood hazard mitigation are discussed, in the light of the current European legislative context. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River,USA

Abstract

This paper distinguishes human and climate influences on the Columbia River streamflow disturbance regime, examines how this disturbance regime has changed over the last 150 years, and discusses downstream impacts. Flow management and withdrawal have greatly curtailed exceedence of the natural bankfull level of ～20 000 m³ s^-1. The frequency distribution of Columbia River flow has also changed. Sediment transport is positively correlated with streamflow standard deviation, and has been greatly reduced by flow regulation. Three kinds of spring freshet style have been identified; there are also three kinds of winter freshet. Flow regulation and regional climate warming have changed freshet styles and reduced maximum flows during the spring season. Downstream effects of hydrological alterations include increased salinity intrusion length, loss of shallow water habitat area during the freshet season, increased tides throughout most of the year, and a decrease in area of the Columbia River plume during spring and summer. Although climate changes and variations have played a substantial role in changing the hydrological disturbance regime, their influence is still less than that of human manipulation of the flow cycle.

Citation Jay, D. A. & Naik, P. K. (2011) Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River, USA. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1186–1209.     

Periodicity of sediment load and runoff in the Yangtze River basin and possible impacts of climatic changes and human activities / Périodicité de la charge sédimentaire et de l'écoulement dans le bassin du Fleuve Yangtze et impacts possibles des changements climatiques et des activités humaines

Abstract

Periodicity of the runoff and the sediment load, and possible impacts from human activities and climatic changes, in the Yangtze River basin during 1963–2004 are discussed based on the monthly sediment and runoff data, and using the wavelet approach. Research results indicated that: (a) Sediment load changes are severely impacted by the different types of human activity (e.g. construction of water reservoirs, deforestation/afforestation); and the runoff variability is the direct result of climatic changes, e.g. the precipitation changes. (b) The impacts of human activity and climatic changes on the sediment load and runoff changes are greater in smaller river basins (e.g. the Jialingjiang River basin) than in larger river basins. The response of sediment load and runoff changes to the impacts of human activities and climatic changes are prompt and prominent in the Jialingjiang River basin relative to those in the mainstem of the Yangtze River basin. (c) Construction of the Three Gorges Dam has already had obvious impacts on the sediment transport process in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, but shows no obvious influence on the runoff changes. Construction of the Three Gorges Dam will result in further re-adjustment of the scouring/filling process within the river channel in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, and have corresponding effects on the altered sediment load because of the Dam's operation for the river channel, ecology, sustainable social economy and even the development of the Yangtze Delta. This will be of concern to local governments and policy makers.     

Utilization of water resources,ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin,Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin, the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasis ecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertification and oasis development coexist, both “the human being advance and the desert retreat” and “the desert advance and the human being retreat” coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upper reaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases have been enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmont plains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oases have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging, and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grasslands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, their shelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seriously.

     

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

Changes in the long-term hydrological regimes and the impacts of human activities in the main Wei River,China

ABSTRACT

Under the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed     

Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover on the Chinese Loess Plateau(1981―2006):Impacts of climate changes and human activities

Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981-2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed a continued increasing phase during 1981―1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations during 1990―1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999―2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during 2002―2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth. The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led to some beneficial effect in ecology.     

Hydrologic alteration along the Middle and Upper East River (Dongjiang) basin, South China: a visually enhanced mining on the results of RVA method

This paper presents a visually enhanced evaluation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the dam-induced hydrologic alteration in the middle and upper East River, south China over 1952–2002, using the range of variability approach (RVA) and visualization package XmdvTool. The impacts of climate variability on hydrological processes have been removed for wet and dry periods, respectively, so that we focus on the impacts of human activities (i.e., dam construction). The results indicate that: (1) along the East River, dams have greatly altered the natural flow regime, range condition and spatial variability; (2) six most remarkable indicators of hydrologic alteration induced by dam-construction are rise rate (1.16), 3-day maximum (0.91), low pulse duration (0.88), January (0.80), July (0.80) and February (0.79) mean flow of the East River during 1952–2002; and (3) spatiotemporal hydrologic alterations are different among three stations along Easter River. Under the influence of dam construction in the upstream, the degree of hydrologic changes from Lingxia, Heyuan to Longchuan station increases. This study reveals that visualization techniques for high-dimensional hydrological datasets together with RVA are beneficial for detecting spatio-temporal hydrologic changes.     

Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover on the Chinese Loess Plateau (1981–2006): Impacts of climate changes and human activities

Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981–2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed a continued increasing phase during 1981–1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations during 1990–1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999–2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during 2002–2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth. The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led to some beneficial effect in ecology. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40671019) and the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences     

Effects of multiple stressors on lakes in south-central Ontario: 15 years of change in lakewater chemistry and sedimentary diatom assemblages

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly affected by human influences. Since the pre-industrial era, lakes of the Muskoka–Haliburton region of south-central Ontario have had increases in shoreline residential development and acid deposition. Previous research on 54 of these lakes, using sediment cores and diatom-based transfer functions, showed changes in lakewater pH and total phosphorus concentration between the preindustrial era and 1992. Since 1992, there has been further change, which we have documented for the same set of lakes, using similar methods. For example, dissolved organic carbon has increased and there have been significant increases in planktonic diatoms (e.g. Cyclotella stelligera) commonly associated with climate warming. More striking diatom changes have occurred in the past 15 years than between pre-industrial times and 1992. Significant changes observed in both chemical (e.g. pH, Ca, DOC) and biological data suggest that novel stressors, such as declines in lake calcium concentrations, acting in conjunction with climate and land-use change, have created ecosystems for which there are no historical analogs.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Enlightenment and the GM floodplain

In the last 400 years floodplains in England and Wales have changed drastically. This has been steered by changes brought about through diverse human activities including river regulation for transport, water abstraction and power generation; mining, industrial and urban pollution; the spread of buildings and transport link construction; land drainage; minimization of flood risk through engineering; floodplain gravel extraction; and environment redesign for recreation and conservation. Adding to the evolving complexity of floodplains, a sequence of post‐Enlightenment impacts from the earliest of industrial societies provides an interesting precursor for other transforming global systems. Historical and sedimentological evidence for this history is available, despite limited quantitative monitoring data. A four‐phase floodplain transformation model is presented for the period. Novel patterns of erosion and sedimentation (in location and quality) have emerged as geomorphological processes have continued in ‘genetically‐modified’ form. Problems building up for the future are likely to rest particularly with more extreme events. Understanding the last four centuries of floodplain history can aid enlightened remedies and adaptations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-thread river channels: A perspective on changing European alpine river systems

Rivers are natural systems whose planform pattern in alluvial reaches reflects a balance between three fundamental ingredients: flow energy, sediment calibre and supply, and vegetation. Whilst early research on river channel classification emphasised flow (stream power) and sediment controls, the impact of vegetation is now recognised in increasingly detailed classification schemes. Different planform patterns are more or less sensitive to changes in these three fundamental ingredients, which in the absence of human interventions all respond to changes in climate, allowing different morphological configurations to evolve and in some cases shift from one planform style to another. Multi-thread, braided and transitional river channel styles are common in European regions where conditions for the development of these planform styles, notably high bed material supply and steep channel gradients, exist. However, widespread, intense human impacts on European river systems, particularly over recent centuries, have caused major changes in river styles. Human activities impact on all three major controls on channel pattern: flow regime, sediment regime, vegetation (both riparian and catchment-wide). Whilst the mix of human activities may vary greatly between catchments, research from across Europe on the historical evolution of river systems has identified consistent trends in channel pattern change, particularly within rivers draining the Alps. These trends involve periods of narrowing and widening, and also switching between multi-thread and single-thread styles. Although flow regulation is often the key focus of explanations for human-induced channel change, our review suggests that human manipulation of sediment supply is a major, possibly the dominant, causal factor. We also suggest that “engineering” by riparian trees can accelerate transitions in pattern induced by flow and sediment change and can also shift transition thresholds, offering a new perspective for interpretation of channel change in addition to the focus on flow and sediment regime within existing models. Whilst the development of planform classifications of increasing complexity have been crucial in developing terminology and highlighting the main factors that control channel styles, additional approaches are needed to understand, predict and manage European Alpine river systems. A combination of field, laboratory and numerical modeling approaches are needed to advance the process understanding that is necessary to anticipate river landscape, particularly planform, changes and thus to make ecologically sound management choices.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析

量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据.     

Utilization of water resources,ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin,Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin, the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasis ecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertification and oasis development coexist, both “the human being advance and the desert retreat” and “the desert advance and the human being retreat” coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upper reaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases have been enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmont plains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oases have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging, and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grasslands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, their shelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seriously.     

Natural climatic changes and solar cycles: an analysis of hydrological time series

Abstract

The effects induced on the climate by human activity have become a major issue for the new millennium. In order to arrive at sustainable conclusions it is necessary, first of all, to assess and quantify natural climatic changes. In general this is done by analysing available time series. In the case of historical hydrometeorological data sets, a comparative analysis with solar cycles is not usually conducted. This work, however, demonstrates that the effect of solar cycles observed at the Equator is also visible at middle and high latitudes with multiple periodicity of the basic solar frequency (roughly 11 years). This could well be due to the interaction between solar forcing and circulation mechanisms within the atmosphere, i.e. water-air-soil interactions coupled with anthropogenic forcing. This theory has been tested by comparing different types of historical data series with the River Po discharges and cyclic appearance of slime bloom in the Adriatic Sea.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.