Manufactured home building regulations and the February 2, 2007 Florida tornadoes

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the state of Florida implemented new wind load and tie-down regulations for manufactured homes following Hurricane Andrew. This article examines the effect of the new regulations on the likelihood that occupants of mobile homes would survive a tornado. On February 2, 2007, three tornadoes struck central Florida, resulting in 21 deaths in Lake County, all in manufactured homes. The deaths occurred almost exclusively in homes rated as leveled by the county tax appraiser. Manufactured homes built to the new regulations, however, were significantly less likely to be leveled. Regression analysis finds that manufactured homes built to the post-Andrew requirements were 79% less likely to be leveled than homes built prior to the HUD Code in 1976, and 68% less likely to be leveled than homes built after 1976 but before the 1994 wind load regulations. Construction of all manufactured homes in the tornado paths to the wind load and tie-down requirements could have reduced fatalities by 70%.

Tornado shelter-seeking behavior and tornado shelter options among mobile home residents in the United States

Residents of 401 mobile homes in Georgia, Mississippi, Illinois, and Oklahoma were surveyed after they heard a tornado warning. Most residents (69%) did not seek shelter during the warning. Half of those who sought shelter went to the frame house of a friend, neighbor, or relative, and 25% of those sought shelter in a basement or underground shelter. Some of the places where residents sought shelter were of dubious quality, such as their own mobile home, another mobile home, or in an out-building. Twenty-one percent of mobile home residents believed that they had a basement or underground shelter available as shelter during a tornado warning, and about half of those said they would drive to the shelter. Residents said they would drive if the shelter was more than 200 m away. Fifteen percent actually had a basement or underground shelter suitable as shelter within 200 m of their mobile home, but only 43% of the residents would use those shelters. The most common reason cited for not using the shelters was that they did not know the people who lived there. Likewise, a frame house or other sturdy building was within 200 m of 58% of the mobile homes, but only 35% of the residents stated they would use those houses for shelter. Thirty-one percent of mobile home residents had a ditch that was at least 0.5 m deep within 200 m of the mobile home. However, 44% of these ditches had utility lines overhead, 23% had water in them, and 20% had trees overhead. The limited tornado shelter options among mobile home residents in the United States needs to be incorporated into safety instructions so that residents without nearby shelter are allowed to drive to safer shelter.     

国内外铁矿石市场形势分析

铁矿石是钢铁工业稳健发展的基石。长期以来,我国铁矿石都处于供不应求状态,目前已经成为国际市场的最大买主,被号称为“全球吸铁石”。由于我国在国际市场上大量采购铁矿石,使得近年铁矿石价格变得扑朔迷离,为此付出了沉重的经济代价。为了更好地利用国外铁矿资源,更加理性地看待国内外铁矿石的供需问题,对国内外铁矿石的供需状况、进出口贸易及价格走势等市场方面的问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Consumption preferences and environmental externalities: A hedonic analysis of the housing market in Guangzhou

The urban housing market of China has been transformed since the 1980s from a centrally-planned to a free-market system. This study aimed to (1) investigate the position of outdoor environmental quality in house-buyers’ preferences; (2) assess monetary values attributed to environmental externalities by the hedonic pricing method (HPM); and (3) test the applicability of HPM in China. The study area was Guangzhou, the major city of south China with a booming real-estate market. A questionnaire survey was conducted with households in new residences sold in 2004. The main buying motives were improving living quarters and floor area. Security concerns and a preference for high-rise buildings were somewhat unexpected. Good outdoor environment, including green space provision, proximity to parks, and views of green space and water, carried significant hedonic values. Differences between the submarkets of old and new towns were found; new town households expected apartments in high-rise blocks, exclusive residential land use, and views of green space, while old town households preferred proximity to shopping areas and workplaces, green space within the development and proximity to nearby parks. The findings could help to fine tune the developing housing market to match supply with demand in quality terms. Values accorded to environmental attributes could justify funding for urban green spaces and nature conservation. The study verified the applicability of HPM to the housing context in China.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Oil ‘futures’: Shell’s Scenarios and the social constitution of the global oil market

This article explores the relationship between the oil industry’s representation of operating conditions in key sites of extraction and the constitution of oil futures markets. An analysis of Shell Oil’s recent Scenarios publications, the ‘Trilemma Scenarios to 2025’ and subsequent ‘Scramble and Blueprints Scenarios to 2050’, provides insight into both the (global) social construction of oil prices and the oil industry’s reaction to social resistance in its operating environment - whether in the form of movements for resource sovereignty or climate change activism. Examining the implications of these two Scenario publications for key sites of Shell investment, the Nigerian Niger Delta and the Canadian Tar Sands, the article demonstrates that understanding the discursive implications of ‘peak oil’ for the petroleum industry requires contextualizing discussions of ‘scarcity’ within business agents role in shaping oil futures markets, and private industry’s interest in the ongoing development of unconventional fossil fuel sources. While the role of deregulated futures trading receives little attention in the Shell Scenarios, speculative trading - and thus perception concerning supply among business agents - is central to shaping global oil prices and thus the social conditions of the oil market.     

Analysis on the Feasibility and Pathway of Integrating Ecosystem Service into Climate Change Governance Solution

Climate change mitigation and adaptation based on the ecosystem services, used as the fundamental part of climate change strategy, can help make more cost effective and more sustainable climate change solutions. The article analyzed the necessity and the feasibility of combination of ecosystem service and climate change strategy, and put forward the way of cooperation between mitigation and adaptation through the ecosystem approach. Based on the above analysis, we reached the conclusion of taking the knowledge involved with ecosystem services into the efforts of tackling climate change timely and of achieving synergies by maintaining and improving a healthy ecosystem, which would not only just help ease the problems of climate change, but also bring in new opportunities and development space.     

Natech risk and management: an assessment of the state of the art

The present state-of-the-art for natech risk and management is discussed. Examples of recent natechs include catastrophic oil spills associated with Hurricane Katrina and hazardous chemical releases in Europe during the heavy floods of 2002. Natechs create difficult challenges for emergency responders due to the geographical extent of the natural disaster, the likelihood of simultaneous releases, emergency personnel being preoccupied with response to the natural disaster, mitigation measures failing due to the effects of the natural disaster, and others. Recovery from natechs may be much more difficult than for “normal” chemical accidents, as the economic and social conditions of the industrial facility and the surrounding community may have been drastically altered by the natural disaster. Potential safeguards against natechs include adoption of stricter design criteria, chemical process safeguards, community land use planning, disaster mitigation and response planning, and sustainable industrial processes, but these safeguards are only sporadically applied. Ultimately, the public must engage in a comprehensive discussion of acceptable risks for natechs.

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide as a climate change mitigation strategy: performance requirements and the implications of surface seepage

The probability that storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in deep geologic formations will become an important climate change mitigation strategy depends on a number of factors, namely (1) public acceptance, (2) the cost of geologic storage compared to other climate change mitigation options, and (3) the availability, capacity, and location of suitable sites. Whether or not a site is suitable will be determined by establishing that it can meet a set of performance requirements for safe and effective geologic storage. To date, no such performance requirements have been developed. Establishing effective requirements must start with an evaluation of how much CO₂ might be stored and for how long the CO₂ must remain underground to meet goals for controlling atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Answers to these questions provide a context for setting performance requirements for geologic storage projects.According to the results presented here, geologic storage could be an effective method to ease the transition away from a fossil-fuel based economy over the next several centuries, even if large amounts of CO₂ are stored and some small fraction seeps from storage reservoirs back into the atmosphere. An annual seepage rate of 0.01% or 10^-4/year would ensure the effectiveness of geologic carbon storage for any of the projected sequestration scenarios explored herein, even those with the largest amounts of storage (1,000 s of gigatonnes of carbon-GtC), and still provide some safety margin. Storing smaller amounts of carbon (10 s to 100 s of GtC) may allow for a slightly higher seepage rate on the order of 0.1% or 10^-3/year. Based on both the large capacity of geologic storage formation and the likelihood of achieving leakage rates much lower than the rates estimated here, geologic storage appears to be a promising mitigation strategy.     

中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望

干旱灾害是制约中国西北地区社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然灾害,而且随着气候变暖西北地区极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。"中国西北干旱气象灾害监测预警及减灾技术研究"成果是在数十个国家级科研项目的支持下,经过过去20年的理论研究和应用技术开发所取得的一系列创新性成果。该成果对西北干旱形成机理及重大干旱事件发生、发展的规律取得了新认识,尤其是发现了形成西北干旱环流模态的4种主要物理途径;研制了西北干旱预测的新指标、干旱监测的新指数及监测农田蒸散的新设备,明显提高了干旱监测准确性和针对性;提出了山地云物理气象学新理论,研发了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区——祁连山空中云水资源开发利用技术;发现了干旱半干旱区陆面水分输送和循环的新规律,揭示了绿洲自我维持的物理机制;认识了干旱气候变化对农业生态系统影响的新特征,建立了旱作农业对干旱灾害的响应关系;开发了旱区覆膜保墒、集雨补灌、垄沟栽培、适宜播期等应对气候变化的减灾技术,为西北实施种植制度、农业布局及结构调整和农业气候资源高效利用提供了科学方案。该成果的完成提升了中国干旱防灾减灾技术水平,培养了中国干旱气象科技队伍,推进了西北地区干旱气象业务服务能力,对西北地区社会经济发展、农业现代化和生态文明建设等方面起到了重要的促进作用。在此基础上,展望了西北地区干旱气象科学研究中迫切需要、有可能突破的主要领域。     

Forest offsets and the California compliance market: Bringing an abstract ecosystem good to market

Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects under the California cap-and-trade market allow production of new, non-traditional commodities: forest carbon offsets. Earlier analyses have considered forest offsets generated through tree planting in the Global South, as vehicles for sustainable development. However, the California IFM program is testing offset production in new geographic and forest management contexts: with offsets produced and consumed within the US on working (timber producing) forests. With data drawn from California IFM project design documents and in-depth interviews with carbon project developers, this study traces the development, sale, and maintenance of forest offsets, in order to map access to benefits along the commodity chain. Results reveal that the cost and complexity of rendering biological services ‘real’ for market legitimacy are reducing benefits to marginal landowners, who lack needed capital, knowledge, and technology to bring offsets to market. An important insight of this study is that the state has maintained power over program participation and offset supply through control of the forest offset methodology, creating a production process largely mediated by the state, adding risk and uncertainty to market participation. Findings provide an empirical example of neoliberal nature and offer broader lessons on governance and benefit distribution for ecosystem service commodity chains.     

欧佩克石油生产配额制度与油价关系研究

欧佩克(OPEC)是一个国际石油供应组织, 其石油政策的重点是通过实施生产配额制度, 对国际市场的油价进行控制, 以实现其石油收益的最大化。本文依据丰富翔实的历史及现状数据资料, 对欧佩克生产配额制度进行了深入研究后得出三点结论: 首先, 生产配额、产量与油价关系紧密, 欧佩克实施配额制度是其实施卡特尔控制的手段之一, 配额制度在欧佩克发展历史上发挥了重要作用, 尽管当前生产配额制度对油价的控制作用在一定程度上弱化, 但也正在发挥作用, 与此同时也存在一定的问题。其次, 欧佩克生产配额制度对油价的影响具阶段性特征, 本文分别对欧佩克在启动期、活跃期、挫折期、成熟期和彷徨期5个阶段中石油生产配额、产量与油价的关系进行了对比分析与研究, 得出了不同时期欧佩克生产配额、产量与油价的关系, 形成了若干重要认识。第三, 分析预测了未来欧佩克生产配额与油价的关系, 探讨了生产配额制度对世界市场油价走向的影响。     

Snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards in the fjords of north-western Iceland,mitigation and prevention

In the fjords of north-western Iceland, snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards threaten 65% of the inhabitants. In this area, both historical and geomorphological evidences clearly demonstrate the recurrent danger from the steep slopes. Hazard vulnerability has increased during the last century, in connection with the population development of the Westfjords. Two snow-avalanche disasters during 1995 (in which 34 people were killed in two villages) prompted efforts to both mitigate and prevent future snow-avalanche and debris-flow activity. Research (qualitative and quantitative) on process characteristics describes prone terrain, runout distance, process behaviour along the slope, morphometric properties of the deposits and triggering factors. Acceptable risk, hazard and risk zoning are clearly defined by official regulations. Evacuation plans are determined from statistical characterisation of the risk and dynamic numerical modelling. To enhance the risk reduction, permanent and temporary measures aim to control the processes and to protect the population.     

“Where is home?” Here and there: transnational experiences of home among Canadian migrants in the United States

Using structured telephone interviews this research focuses on how Canadian migrants living in the United States experience and describe home. We argue that the globalisation of peoples’ lives, transnationalism and the concomitant creation of transnational social spaces have greatly affected the meaning of home for migrants. The understandings of home that result reflect the reality of living in social worlds that span two countries and the development of decentred multiple attachments and feelings of belonging in more than one place. In response to these circumstances Canadian migrants experience home as multi-dimensional, pluri-local, and characterized by regular movement across the U.S.–Canada border. When asked specifically about feeling at home upon re-entry to the U.S. many respondents answered yes. However, many interviewees qualified their answers by describing home in different ways and associating different aspects of their lives with each country. Canada as home was most often described in terms of family, while home in the U.S. was associated with work. Respondents also differentiated between feeling at home once they reached their residence as opposed to feeling unwelcome at the U.S. border.     

Fair Trade market creation and marketing in the Global South

Fair Trade emerged to commercialise Southern products in the Global North on terms overtly beneficial to Southern producers. However, a contemporary phenomenon is the development of Fair Trade consumer markets within the Global South itself: and the paper explores this as a contribution to the evolving geographies of ethical consumerism. Data was captured from secondary sources and field visits that included in-depth interviews and participant observation. Analysis is informed by theories of market creation developed in economic geography and economic sociology. As such we focus on understanding (1) the architecture, or networks and institutions, of commercialisation, governance and certification and (2) the marketing practices and strategies, designed to resonate with and develop cognitive association amongst consumers. Given the alternative geographies of South–South vis-à-vis South–North Fair Trade, we deepen the geographical focus by applying frameworks emerging from the concept of ‘geographical entanglement’. Findings identify the similarities and differences of both Southern Fair Trade market creation and marketing compared to the European experience. In some cases, the place-based ‘othering’, often used to develop sympathetic cognitive frames in Northern marketing, is identified, but this time operates around alternative geographical binaries. In other cases, we highlight instances that avoid such divisive place-making, and which instead draw on inclusive, rather than divisive, imagined geographies, overlaid with the collective aspiration for development, pride and dignity. These findings therefore inform the nature of geographical entanglement followed by ethical market creation, as well as contributing to the wider theoretical understanding of moral geographies endogenous to the Global South.     

Sustainable lifestyles: Framing environmental action in and around the home

This paper examines the nature of environmental action in and around the home. Given the rise of local sustainable development and the emphasis placed on individual actions for sustainability, the paper examines the role of citizens in adopting sustainable lifestyles, incorporating a range of behavioural responses from energy saving and water conservation, to waste recycling and green consumption. Focussing on the debate in geography concerning the engagement of the public in environmental action, the paper argues that despite the assertions of those who advocate a deliberative approach to engagement (see [Owens, S., 2000. Engaging the public: information and deliberation in environmental policy. Environment and Planning A 32, 1141–1148]), an approach based on a social–psychological understanding of behaviour can have significant benefits. Such an approach is being developed by geographers in a range of settings and in this paper these developments are situated within the context of existing research that has identified environmental ‘activists’ in terms of their values, attitudes and demographic composition. The paper aims to examine environmental behaviour in relation to two key issues: (1) the way in which environmental action is framed in everyday practices (such as consumption behaviour) and (2) how these practices are reflected amongst different segments of the population to form lifestyle groups. The paper provides new insights for examining sustainable lifestyles that further our appreciation of how actions to help the environment are lived in everyday practices and framed by different lifestyle groups. Accordingly, the paper offers both academics and policy makers new insights into the potential use of focussing on lifestyle groups as a means for changing behaviour.     

国内外风化壳覆盖区地质调查研究综述

通过收集、翻译、研读大量国内外有关风化壳研究的文献,综述了风化壳研究现状,阐述了中国南方红土在成因、时代、环境和气候等方面的进展。以案例的形式,从理论和实践2方面综述了国内外风化壳覆盖区地质调查情况,重点介绍了国外风化壳特殊地貌区地质、地球物理、地球化学、土壤、遥感、钻探地质调查等方面的成功案例,以便更好服务于我国特殊地貌区风化壳1∶5万地质填图试点工作。     

Hydro-environmental status and soil management of the River Nile Delta,Egypt

The sea level rise has its own-bearing on the coastal recession and hydro-environmental degradation of the River Nile Delta. Attempts are made here to use remote sensing to detect the coastal recession in some selected parts and delineating the chemistry of groundwater aquifers and surface water, which lie along south-mid-northern and coastal zone of the Nile Delta. Eight water samples from groundwater monitoring wells and 13 water samples from surface water were collected and analyzed for various hydrochemical parameters. The groundwater samples are classified into five hydrochemical facies on Hill-Piper trilinear diagram based on the dominance of different cations and anions: facies 1: Ca–Mg–Na–HCO₃–Cl–SO₄ type I; facies 2: Na–Cl–HCO₃ type II; facies 3: Na–Ca–Mg–Cl type III, facies 4: Ca–Na–Mg–Cl–HCO₃ type IV and facies 5: Na–Mg–Cl type V. The hydrochemical facies showed that the majority of samples were enriched in sodium, bicarbonate and chloride types and, which reflected that the sea water and tidal channel play a major role in controlling the groundwater chemical composition in the Quaternary shallow aquifers, with a severe degradation going north of Nile Delta. Also, the relationship between the dissolved chloride (Cl, mmol/l), as a variable, and other major ion combinations (in mmol/l) were considered as another criterion for chemical classification system. The low and medium chloride groundwater occurs in southern and mid Nile Delta (Classes A and B), whereas the high and very high chloride (classes D and C) almost covers the northern parts of the Nile Delta indicating the severe effect of sea water intrusion. Other facets of hydro-environmental degradation are reflected through monitoring the soil degradation process within the last two decades in the northern part of Nile Delta. Land degradation was assessed by adopting new approach through the integration of GLASOD/FAO approach and Remote Sensing/GIS techniques. The main types of human induced soil degradation observed in the studied area are salinity, alkalinity (sodicity), compaction and water logging. On the other hand, water erosion because of sea rise is assessed. Multi-dates satellite data from Landsat TM and ETM+ images dated 1983 and 2003 were used to detect the changes of shoreline during the last two decades. The obtained results showed that, the eroded areas were determined as 568.20 acre; meanwhile the accreted areas were detected as 494.61 acre during the 20-year period.     

国内外钼资源供需形势分析

全面、系统地建立钼矿石、钼矿粉分析方法,对钼元素研究开发和保障钼矿工业发展具有重要意义。目前多采用酸溶或碱熔样品后进行分析,其不足是测定钼含量的范围窄,消耗样品量大,还需使用大量酸碱,且受仪器限制,分析高含量钼时多需对样品溶液进行数次稀释,使分析步骤更加繁琐。发射光谱法则可避免上述问题,但用之准确分析高含量钼矿石钼矿粉尚有测试方法的瓶颈需要突破。本文研究通过内标元素、分析线对、缓冲剂配比、电流程序等环节的实验分析,建立了固体进样-交流电弧发射光谱法测定钼矿石中高含量钼的分析方法：优化样品与光谱缓冲剂质量比至1∶2,优化分析线对,截取曝光时间35s,采用以国家一级合成硅酸盐光谱分析标准物质和国家一级矿石标准物质组成的自研标准系列制作标准曲线,由全谱交直流电弧发射光谱仪自动扣除分析线和内标线背景后以对数坐标二次曲线拟合计算,使测定范围扩展为500～500800μg/g,检出限为27.38μg/g,相对标准偏差（RSD）为3.28%～8.30%,相对误差为-0.43%～0.73%。结果表明,本文方法在实现绿色分析的同时,在检出限相当、精密度合格的条件下,一次性分析高含量钼的上限从5%提高至50%。

     

全球锂资源特征及市场发展态势分析

锂作为全球重要的新兴关键性矿产之一,被中国、美国、日本、欧盟等世界各主要经济体列为战略性或关键矿产,各主要经济体愈加重视锂资源安全供应。为全面了解全球锂资源特征,剖析市场发展态势,全面梳理了全球锂资源主要成矿类型、分布特征、成矿时代和典型成矿区带情况,结合主要国家锂资源市场态势,分析了全球锂资源供需格局和价格走势,并就保障中国锂资源供应安全提出建议。总体来看,全球锂资源丰富,但分布和供需高度集中。当前,随着全球新能源产业的蓬勃发展,锂资源供给和需求快速增长,国际贸易量和价格稳步上升;为缓解供应紧张局面,全球锂资源开发项目众多,锂矿勘查投入逐年增加。中国作为全球第一大锂资源消费国,国内锂资源供给不足,对外依存度高达67%,仍存在锂资源市场产业链不完善、金融体系薄弱、企业国际竞争力较弱等问题。研究结果为全面了解全球锂资源特征和市场发展态势提供重要参考,对勘查投资具有一定指导意义。