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1.
A regime shift is considered to be a sudden shift in structure and functioning of a marine ecosystem, affecting several living components and resulting in an alternate state. According to this definition, regime shifts differ from species replacement or alternation of species at similar trophic levels, whereby the ecosystem is not necessarily significantly altered in terms of its structure and function; only its species composition changes. This paper provides an overview of regime shifts, species replacements and alternations that have been observed in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the past few decades. Bottom-up control, initiating and sustaining regime shifts or species replacements via environmental forcing, is documented for both the southern and the northern Benguela ecosystems. Fishing (a case of top-down control) appears to have played an important role in regime shift processes in the Namibian ecosystem. Very low biomass levels of exploited fish stocks associated with less efficient energy transfer in the northern Benguela are indicative of a regime shift. Very high biomass levels have been reached in the southern Benguela in the 2000s. However the alternation between sardine and anchovy that has been observed in the southern Benguela over the last two decades appears not to have had major effects on the overall functioning of the ecosystem. The consequences of regime shifts for exploitation are highlighted, suggesting that fisheries managers should move towards a more effective ecosystem approach to fisheries.  相似文献   

2.
Regime shifts: Can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms?   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
“Regime shifts” are considered here to be low-frequency, high-amplitude changes in oceanic conditions that may be especially pronounced in biological variables and propagate through several trophic levels. Three different types of regime shift (smooth, abrupt and discontinuous) are identified on the basis of different patterns in the relationship between the response of an ecosystem variable (usually biotic) and some external forcing or condition (control variable). The smooth regime shift is represented by a quasi-linear relationship between the response and control variables. The abrupt regime shift exhibits a nonlinear relationship between the response and control variables, and the discontinuous regime shift is characterized by the trajectory of the response variable differing when the forcing variable increases compared to when it decreases (i.e., the occurrence of alternative “stable” states). Most often, oceanic regime shifts are identified from time series of biotic variables (often commercial fish), but this approach does not allow the identification of discontinuous regime shifts. Recognizing discontinuous regime shifts is, however, particularly important as evidence from terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems suggests that such regime shifts may not be immediately reversible. Based on a review of various generic classes of mathematical models, we conclude that regime shifts arise from the interaction between population processes and external forcing variables. The shift between ecosystem states can be caused by gradual, cumulative changes in the forcing variable(s) or it can be triggered by acute disturbances, either anthropogenic or natural. A protocol for diagnosing the type of regime shift encountered is described and applied to a data set on Georges Bank haddock, from which it is concluded that a discontinuous regime shift in the abundance of haddock may have occurred. It is acknowledged that few, if any, marine data are available to confirm the occurrence of discontinuous regime shifts in the ocean. Nevertheless, we argue that there is good theoretical evidence for their occurrence as well as some anecdotal evidence from data collection campaigns and that the possibility of their occurrence should be recognized in the development of natural resource management strategies.  相似文献   

3.
The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This paper focuses on the ecosystem regime shift in the North Sea that occurred during the period 1982–1988. The evidence for the change is seen from individual species to key ecosystem parameters such as diversity and from phytoplankton to fish. Although many biological/ecosystem parameters and individual species exhibited a stepwise change during the period 1983–1988, some indicators show no evidence of change. The cause of the regime shift is likely to be related to pronounced changes in large-scale hydro-meteorological forcing. This involved activating of complex intermediate physical mechanisms which explains why the exact timing of the shift can vary from 1982 to 1988 (centred around two periods: 1982–1985 and 1987–1988) according to the species or taxonomic group. Increased sea surface temperature and possibly change in wind intensity and direction at the end of the 1970s in the west European basin triggered a change in the location of an oceanic biogeographical boundary along the European continental shelf. This affected both the stable and substrate biotope components of North Sea marine ecosystems (i.e. components related to the water masses and components which are geographically stable) circa 1984. Large-scale hydro-climatic forcing also modified local hydro-meteorological parameters around the North Sea after 1987 affecting the stable biotope components of North Sea ecosystems. Problems related to the detection and quantification of an ecosystem regime shift are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960–2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic–anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events.The first shift, in 1973–1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the “cold climate regime” following its ∼20-year persistence in the “warm climate regime”. The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the “high production” regime of phytoplankton to its background “low production” regime.The Black Sea regime-shifts appear to be sporadic events forced by strong transient decadal perturbations, and therefore differ from the multi-decadal scale cyclical events observed in pelagic ocean ecosystems under low-frequency climatic forcing. The Black Sea observations illustrate that eutrophication and extreme fishery exploitation can indeed induce hysteresis in large marine ecosystems, when they can exert sufficiently strong forcing onto the system. They further illustrate the link between the disruption of the top predators, proliferation of new predator stocks, and regime-shift events. Examples of these features have been reported for some aquatic ecosystems, but are extremely limited for large marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

5.
The engagement of stakeholders in the marine spatial planning process   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
Due to the interdependency that exists between the ecosystem resources and its users, successful implementation of ecosystem-based management depends on the identification and understanding of different stakeholders, their practices, expectations and interests. Today, many scientists and resource managers agree that the involvement of stakeholders is a key factor for a successful management regime in the marine environment. The way stakeholders are involved in the process must reflect, or at least address, the existing complexity of the specific context. A comprehensive method that allows doing this is by use of stakeholder analysis and mapping. This article will focus on the various types and stages of stakeholder participation in a marine spatial planning process, and will illustrate how to conduct a stakeholder analysis that allows the involvement of stakeholders in an adequate way that is sustainable over time.  相似文献   

6.
Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We review observational data sets that have been used to detect regime shifts in the ocean. Through exploration of data time series we develop a definition of a regime shift from a pragmatic perspective, in which a shift is considered as an abrupt change from a quantifiable ecosystem state. We conclude that such changes represent a restructuring of the ecosystem state in some substantial sense that persists for long enough that a new quasi-equilibrium state can be observed. The abruptness of the shift is relative to the life-scale or the reproductive time-scale of the higher predators that are influenced by the shift. In general, the event-forcing is external to the biological ecosystem, usually the physical climate system, but we also identify shifts that can be ascribed to anthropogenic forcing, in our examples fishing. This pragmatic definition allows for several different types of regime shift ranging from simple biogeographic shifts to non-linear state changes. In practice it is quite difficult to determine whether observed changes in an oceanic ecosystem are primarily spatial or temporally regulated. The determination of ecosystem state remains an unresolved, and imprecise, oceanographic problem.We review observations and interpretation from several different oceanic regions as examples to illustrate this pragmatic definition of a regime shift: the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest and Northeast Atlantic, and Eastern Boundary Currents. For each region, different types of data (biological and physical) are available for differing periods of time, and we conclude, with varying degrees of certainty, whether a regime shift is in fact detectable in the data.  相似文献   

7.
Since Hurricane Sandy, there has been heightened attention to increasing the resilience of coastal communities to extreme events, including storm protection provided by coastal ecosystems. Storm protection benefits (SPB) are the ability of ecosystems, including wetlands, reefs, and beaches/dunes, to attenuate waves and storm surge. SPB are a topic of growing interest in the scientific and policy spheres, including discussions of how to incorporate SPB into existing policies. As an engine for restoration and a leading mechanism for the evaluation of ecosystem services, Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) provides a platform for better internalizing this and other services into decision-making particularly using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA). HEA does not explicitly account for impacts to ecosystem services that flow from one habitat to an adjacent one. This study examines a hypothetical case study of an oil spill that impacts a marsh with resulting impacts on SPB to the adjacent upland forest. To more fully assess these impacts, a “nested HEA” was developed which accounts for cross-habitat ecosystem service flows. The nested HEA captures the impacts of the marsh loss on the forest due to wave and saltwater intrusion that would not be captured by a traditional HEA. By adapting the HEA approach with a nested HEA, NRDA could quantify direct ecosystem services losses as well as additional cross-service flows between habitats. However, additional data are needed in order to perform a nested HEA, and in the case of SPB, location-specific data likely will be needed to appropriately specify the model.  相似文献   

8.
Progress in ecosystem management requires the characterisation of the dynamics of a species's ecosystem and the influences of climatic oscillations on those dynamics. Within the North Pacific, ecosystem dynamics have been described on decadal-scales (regimes) and have been shown to shift abruptly (regime shifts). The year class success of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) exhibit decadal-scale patterns that relate to decadal-scale patterns in North Pacific climate–ocean conditions. As an example, and a step towards, incorporating the dynamics of marine systems into the stock assessment and management of sablefish, we produce a ‘report card’ that characterises the species's ecosystem on decadal-scales. This report card consists of a matrix of climatological and oceanographic indices for the North Pacific, and regional environmental and biological indices. It indicates that both Pacific-wide and regionally, conditions were generally good for sablefish year class strength during the 1977–1988 regime, but these favourable conditions did not persist into the 1990s. Exploitation scenarios can be developed around the decadal-scale dynamics in sablefish year class success and their life history, in particular longevity. Fisheries managers can begin to develop exploitation strategies that acknowledge these changes in the sablefish ecosystem. The report card presents an aggregation of parameters that, on average, gives an impression of productivity during a specific regime and can be used to augment present stock assessment and management efforts.  相似文献   

9.
Neil A. Davis   《Marine Policy》2008,32(6):867-876
Governing agencies increasingly employ collaborative forms of decision-making in fisheries management to improve decision quality and legitimacy. However, crafting fair and effective collaborative processes that will achieve these benefits is often difficult. In an effort to identify keys and obstacles to success, this research examined participants’ evaluations of a collaborative planning process in Canada's Pacific groundfish fisheries. Results indicate that an incentive to participate, consensus decision-making, and independent facilitation were essential to ensuring the fairness and effectiveness of the process. Together, these elements motivated agreement while providing security against process manipulation by both participants and governing agencies.  相似文献   

10.
The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.  相似文献   

11.
Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.  相似文献   

12.
Information about stakeholder aspirations is a fundamental requirement for ecosystem-based management, but the detail is often elusive, and debates may focus on simplistic opposing positions. This is exemplified by the Antarctic krill fishery, which, despite a current operational catch limit equivalent to just 1% of the estimated biomass and actual annual catches much lower than this, is the subject of a high-profile debate framed around ambiguous concepts such as sustainability. Q methodology was applied to explore the detailed views of representatives of three stakeholder sectors (the fishing industry, conservation-focused non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and scientists from seven countries involved in research on the krill-based ecosystem). The analysis distinguished two clear groupings, one of which included the views of all NGO participants while the other included the views of fishing industry participants and a subset of the scientists. Key differences between the groups included the priority given to different management measures, and to continued commercial fishing. However, the results also revealed considerable overlap between viewpoints. Both groups prioritised the maintenance of ecosystem health and recognised the importance of defining management objectives. Also, neither group prioritised a decrease in catch limits. This suggests that most participants in the study agree that management should improve but do not perceive a major problem in the ecosystem's ability to support current catch levels. Cooperation to identify shared management objectives based on stakeholder aspirations for the ecosystem might enhance progress, whereas polarised discussions about preferred management measures or ambiguous concepts are likely to impede progress.  相似文献   

13.
14.
Public participation is a key ingredient of good governance and there are many advantages of involving stakeholders in the decision-making process. The European Commission identified the lack of stakeholder involvement as one of the major weaknesses of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). As such, the 2002 Reform of the CFP aimed to improve its system of governance by increasing the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making. Over the last decade, Scottish inshore waters have seen an increase in management measures focused on involving fishers, delegating responsibilities and decentralizing management. The present document investigates commercial inshore fishers’ perceptions of participation in the decision-making process and attitudes towards a new management regime – the Inshore Fisheries Groups (IFGs) – which aims to increase participation in and decentralization of inshore fisheries management. A survey was conducted, through face-to-face interviews, and ordered logistic and multiple regression models created to identify which characteristics influence fishers’ perceptions and attitudes. The present analysis concluded that, 5 years subsequent to the reform of the CFP, the majority of inshore fishers perceive themselves not to be consulted or involved in the decision-making process. However, and despite the fact that fishers are not completely certain of the potential of the IFGs to increase their participation in the management process, they have an overall positive attitude towards their implementation.  相似文献   

15.
We compiled and analyzed past time-series data to evaluate changes in oceanographic conditions and marine ecosystems near the Ieodo ocean research station (IORS) in the East China Sea (N 31°15??C33°45??, E 124°15??C127°45??) in relation to longterm changes in climate and global warming. The environment data we used was a depth-specific time-series of temperature and salinity for the water columns at 175 fixed stations along 22 oceanographic lines in Korean waters, based on bimonthly measurements since 1961 taken by the National Fisheries Research & Development Institute. As an indicator for the ecosystem status of the waters off Ieodo, we analyzed species composition in biomass of fishes caught by Korean fishing vessels in the waters near the IORS (1984?C2010) and summarized the data in relation to the environmental changes using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). To detect step changes in the time-series of environmental factors, we applied a sequential t-test analysis of regime shift. Correspondence analysis detected a major shift in fish assemblage structure between 1990 and 1993: the dominant species was filefish during 1981?C1992, but chub mackerel during 1992?C2007. This shift in fish assemblage structure seemed to be related to the well-established 1989 regime shift in the North Pacific, which was confirmed again with respect to temperature in the Yellow Sea and the Korea Strait (but not in the waters off the IORS). In overall from 1984 to 2010, salinity was more important than water temperature in CCA, implying that the fluctuation of the Tsushima warm current is a most important force driving the long-term changes in fish assemblage structure in the waters off the IORS. Further multidisciplinary researches are required to identify oceanographic and biological processes that link climate-driven physical changes to fish recruitment and habitat range fluctuations.  相似文献   

16.
张畅  李纲  陈新军 《海洋学报》2021,43(9):48-58
智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)是东南太平洋重要的经济鱼类之一,其资源量受补充量影响明显,了解补充量状况对智利竹筴鱼资源可持续利用和科学管理具有重要意义。本文基于模态分析将1971-2017年间智利竹筴鱼补充量划分不同模态,运用贝叶斯模型平均法,分析海表面温度、海表面盐度、海表面高度、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡5个环境因子在不同模态中对补充量的解释能力,并探讨模态变动对补充量预测的影响。结果表明,第1模态(1971-1980年)更多的受捕捞因素的干扰;第2模态(1981-1990年)厄尔尼诺对补充量变动的解释概率最高;第3模态(1991-2001年)解释概率最高的环境因子为太平洋年代际振荡;第4模态(2002-2015年)厄尔尼诺为解释概率最高的环境因子。对比不考虑模态变动的分析结果,两者存在明显差异,基于不同模态的分析结果对智利竹筴鱼补充量变动的解释更为合理。研究认为,智利竹筴鱼补充量变动受到多个环境因子的影响,在不同模态时期起主导作用的环境因子也不同,推测年代际太平洋年代际振荡冷暖期交替与厄尔尼诺现象可能是诱发智利竹筴鱼补充量发生模态转变的重要因素。建议在未来智利竹...  相似文献   

17.
《Ocean & Coastal Management》2003,46(3-4):235-259
Ecologists have proposed hundreds of quantitative indicators of the status of ecosystems for evaluation of and reporting on the status of marine ecosystems. The talk applies a common approach to classifying indicators, summarises the main properties of each class of indicator, and provides some illustrations.Indicators of ecosystem status have roles in both communication and decision support. For both roles, strengths and weaknesses of indicators are usually only partially known. Few have been tested systematically for sensitivity and robustness across a range of contexts… However, to determine best practices for selecting indicators for specific uses, one must have a fairly complete understanding of the information content of the various indicators. The paper explores some alternative approaches to documenting the information content of various indicators of ecosystem status.As the Precautionary Approach becomes broadly used as the basis for management decision-making, the role of indicators of ecosystem status becomes central. The PA is made operational in decision-making through use of indicators and reference points. This means that it is necessary to identify values of an ecosystem indicator associated with harm to the environment that is serious or difficult to reverse. Methods for identifying and justifying reference points for ecosystem indicators are being developed and tested, but the task is turning out to be complex. Alternative strategies for identifying reference points are reviewed.When choices must be made from a suite of candidate indicators, it is desirable make the selection on objective grounds. This requires explicit a priori criteria, on which there is not yet scientific consensus. Recent developments in this area are reviewed, and again a way forward proposed.  相似文献   

18.
Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.  相似文献   

19.
Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem can be stimulated. The existing multi-level governance institutions are specifically set up for dealing with individual sectors, but do not adequately support an operational application of the ecosystem approach. The review of ecosystem services in relation to regime shifts and resilience of the Baltic Sea sub-basins, and their driving forces, points to a number of challenges. There is however a movement towards a new governance regime. Bottom-up pilot initiatives can lead to a diffusion of innovation within the existing governance framework. Top-down, enabling EU legislation, can help stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub-basin scales could facilitate this process.  相似文献   

20.
海洋和海岸带生态系统价值的科学评估对海洋与海岸带开发决策起着重要的支撑作用.目前盛行的生态系统服务价值评估是从生态系统对人类的效用的角度衡量生态系统的价值,而缺乏从生态系统自身的角度进行客观评估.首先分析了生态系统内在价值的内涵,提出基于能值和ecoexergy两种系统生态学方法的价值评估框架,建立了一套海洋生态系统内在价值较为有效的评估方法.该框架先通过能值计算将生态系统的生物成分、非生物成分及物种多样性转换为能值货币价值,再通过eco-exergy来体现生态系统的结构与功能过程,并转换为eco-exergy货币价值.最后将该评估框架应用于厦门湾海洋生态系统内在价值的评估.结果显示,2010年厦门湾海洋生态系统的本底内在价值为1.16×10^11CNY,全年创造内在价值为9.24×10^10CNY,总计2.09×10^11CNY,远高于生态系统服务价值7.27×10^9CNY和厦门海洋产业GDP 2.47×10^10CNY.  相似文献   

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