Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade

About half of the world's oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation's understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median < 2 °C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade.     

From reductionism to systems thinking: How the shipping sector can address sulphur regulation and tackle climate change

The shipping sector is required to reduce fuel sulphur content to 0.1% in Emission Control Areas by 2015 and to 0.5% globally by 2020. Although this is demanding, a greater challenge for all sectors is climate change. However, the three options to comply with sulphur regulation do little to address this challenge. With a deep-seated change to the type of fuel burnt in marine engines, this should be seen as an opportunity to explore co-benefits of sulphur and carbon reduction – instead of taking a short-sighted approach to the problem. It is argued here that the upcoming sulphur regulations should be postponed and instead, a co-ordinated suite of regulations should be implemented that tackles cumulative CO₂ emissions and localised SO_x emissions in chorus. This would ensure that less developed, yet more radical, step-change forms of propulsion such as wind, battery and biofuels are introduced from the outset – reducing the risks of infrastructure lock-in and preventing the lock-out of technologies that can meaningfully reduce absolute emissions from the sector.     

Greening international shipping through private governance: A case study of the Clean Shipping Project

This article aims to generate insights into both private governance and partnerships within the shipping industry, but also tries to improve understanding of the complex process of institutionalisation.This is achieved through a case study of the Clean Shipping Project, a public/private partnership that aims to promote sustainability in the shipping industry. A set of enabling and constraining factors are examined that shape the institutionalisation process and determine to what extent the Clean Shipping Project can establish and expand authority as an industry norm.Overall, the Clean Shipping Project cannot yet be considered a full-fledged private governance institution, because of an insufficient level of collaborative advantage mainly due to weak system robustness and unfavourable market characteristics and conditions. However, institutionalisation is an ongoing process and the future outlook for the Clean Shipping Project remains promising. The Clean Shipping Project is certainly a relevant supplement to existing regulations and there is a basic level of commitment and cohesion within the partnership, so it is not unlikely that in the future this initiative may help to uncouple growth in shipping activities from environmental harm.     

The changing framework of shipping: Trends in trade,technology, and policies

The author analyses prospects and policy options for shipping in the context of three major influences: changes in seaborne trade; technical and organizational innovation; and changes in the political environment of shipping. Finally, he stresses the urgency of the need to remove the tonnage surplus — an essential feature of any restoration of equilibrium between supply and demand.     

The liberalization of shipping in Taiwan

Maritime transport has become well developed in Taiwan, which is located in the western Pacific Rim. Following the model of traditional maritime nations, Taiwan's government enacted some shipping-friendly measures to help the industry in its early expansion stage. Nevertheless, government authorities have taken actions to liberalize the operations of the maritime-transport sector over the past 10 years. This paper focuses on how the liberalization measures were proposed and implemented including the process and reasons behind the formulation of governmental policies, the interaction between domestic shipping operators and the government. In addition, this paper presents a comprehensive review of the liberalization policy's impact on domestic maritime transport operators.     

Slow steaming and a new dawn for wind propulsion: A multi-level analysis of two low carbon shipping transitions

The key enabler of international trade, shipping is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and responsible for approximately 2% of global carbon emissions. For the sector to reduce its emissions in line with climate change objectives, a wholesale transition is required from the current carbon intensive shipping system to one with a lower climatic impact. Drawing on the multi-level perspective from the socio-technical transitions literature, this paper focuses on two technological developments which could reduce the emissions from shipping – slow steaming and wind propulsion. Outlining the landscape changes which may hinder or support the incorporation of each of these innovations into the broader shipping regime the paper shows how slow steaming has been accommodated within this regime, in response to high oil prices and the economic downturn. In the longer term it concludes that additional policy measures may be required to ensure slow steaming persists should landscape pressures reduce. Oil prices, and the environmental agenda, are driving the development of wind propulsion, but more needs to be done to support those companies which seek to demonstrate and commercialise modern incarnations of the original pioneers of the seas.     

Wind technologies: Opportunities and barriers to a low carbon shipping industry

The abatement potential of wind technologies on ships is estimated to be around 10–60% by various sources. To date there has been minimal uptake of this promising technology, despite a number of commercially available solutions that have been developed to harness this free and abundant energy source. Several barriers have been referred to in the literature that inhibit uptake of energy efficiency measures in shipping. This paper provides a systematic analysis of the viability of wind technology on ships and the barriers to their implementation, both from the perspective of the technology providers and technology users (ship owner–operators), using the survey and the deliberative workshop method. The data generated from these methods is analysed using the qualitative content analysis method. The results show that whilst there is renewed interest in wind power, there are several common economic barriers that are hindering the mass uptake of wind technologies. Our analysis shows that third party capital is a plausible solution to overcoming the cost of capital, split incentives and information barriers that have contributed to inhibiting the uptake of wind technology in the shipping industry.     

区块链技术在海洋领域的应用与展望

通过文献收集调研了区块链技术在国内外的发展现状,简述了区块链技术在渔业交易、航运物流和智慧海洋建设等海洋领域的应用成果,重点分析了我国海洋领域在区块链技术应用中普遍存在的缺乏顶层设计、应用场景有待明确、底层核心技术亟需突破的问题,并提出了建立健全区块链制度标准体系、提高政策支撑力度、提升区块链核心技术自主研发能力的具体...     

Human resource management and competitive advantage: An application of resource-based view in the shipping industry

The resource-based view (RBV) of the firm has been established as one of the main approaches to strategy formulation for the development of sustainable competitive advantage. Moreover, human resource management can be conceptualised as a source of competitiveness. This paper proposes that RBV could contribute to the confrontation of the hindrances that shipping companies face in the management of their human resources, and to the formation of sustainable competitive advantage. The paper analyses the findings of a field study, regarding the different human resource and crew management practices that are applied by Greek-owned shipping companies. Finally, based on the RBV of the firm, it proposes an integrated framework for managing human resources in the shipping industry in a way that could lead to the formation of sustainable competitive advantage.     

Harnessing the wind: A case study of applying Flettner rotor technology to achieve fuel and cost savings for Fiji's domestic shipping industry

For over 5000 years, humans have successfully harnessed the power of wind to transport people and goods across the world's oceans. This research expands on previous studies of the unique Flettner rotor propulsion system and the demonstrable success in reducing fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Recent examples such as Enercon's E-ship 1 have proven seaworthy and economically viable along major shipping routes. The remote Pacific island countries (PICS), however, have the unique characteristics of retaining a remarkable seafaring heritage while remaining on the periphery of global commerce. With data obtained from a field study of Fiji's domestic shipping, this research analyzes the potential for implementing Flettner rotor systems to achieve more economically viable alternatives to the current situation. The findings show that with an incremental approach and the addition of a government fuel savings incentive, the Government Shipping Franchise Scheme (GSFS) subsidies could be significantly lowered for Fiji's ten uneconomical shipping routes. Four scenarios of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 25% fuel savings contrast the baseline data on one extreme with a zero-emissions scenario on the other. The most likely fuel savings scenario of between 10% and 15% results in a 20-year government savings of between 348,042 and 522,063 U.S. dollars and a 20-year cumulative reduction in CO₂ emissions of between 2931 and 4396 t. The paper concludes that Flettner rotors show promising results in reducing fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions and recommends future studies in collaboration with the Fiji government to develop practical strategies of implementation.     

The stamp of neoliberalism on the UK tonnage tax and the implications for British seafaring

In 2000 the UK adopted a tonnage tax strategy on ships and related businesses as the main strategy for revitalising its declining shipping industry. In line with EU policy on shipping, UK registered shipping companies were offered fiscal incentives based on reduced corporation taxes while labour was offered support for training. Almost a decade since the introduction of the tax it is clear that the strategy has delivered for business but not for labour. This paper considers the nature and limits of state intervention per se in declining economic sectors in the context of globalisation and a neoliberal approach to governance. It concludes that the problem is often not state intervention but rather the form of intervention, namely one that panders to, and is constrained by, neoliberalism.     

Developing direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits

Direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits has been restricted since 1949 for political reasons. Goods for cross-Straits trade must be transshipped via a third place, such as Hong Kong or a Japanese port. Since commercial activities across the Straits have become increasingly prosperous in recent years, the demand for direct shipping across the Straits is growing critically important and attracts great attention from all sectors. Businessmen who are involved in cross-Straits trade have criticized the higher costs and longer transit time of transshipment. This article explores possible solutions for shipping directly across the Straits. It discusses the mode of negotiation for settling the discrepancies in viewpoints between the two sides, and aims to provide a reference for governments from both sides.     

The environmental management of shipping

The environmental management of shipping requires systematic consideration of the geography of shipping routes, ship types and cargoes, and environments which can form the basis of a classificatory approach to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Beyond this, effective environmental management depends in the first instance upon sound information management including monitoring of the environment, surveillance of shipping and information technology, followed by information assessment including, in particular, risk and environmental impact. The general management dimension includes co-ordination of technical management and organisational aspects related to shipping. It is suggested that effective environmental management of shipping may depend upon a regionalisation of the marine environment for EIA purposes akin to that found in the loadline rules, together with rationalisation of the increasing number of special areas in existence or proposed for this purpose. EIA will have to become an integral part of the overall management system in the shipping industry.     

Port selection factors by shipping lines: Different perspectives between trunk liners and feeder service providers

The objective is to identify the factors affecting shipping companies’ port choice based on a survey to a sample of shipping companies. Six factors were considered relatively important: local cargo volume; terminal handling charge; berth availability; port location; transshipment volume and feeder network. Exploratory factor and confirmatory factor analyses identified five port choice categories, i.e. advancement/convenience of port; physical/operational ability of port; operational condition of shipping lines; marketability; and port charge. A comparison between the main trunk and feeder service providers indicated that the former face more intense competition than the latter. Moreover, the main haul shipping lines are more sensitive to port cost factors.     

Seafarers and the land based jobs market: The present UK situation

Concern has existed for some time that the decline of the British shipping industry is resulting in the UK economy losing its maritime skills base. The effects of this loss could extend beyond the shipping industry because former seafarers are employed in other maritime related businesses ashore besides shipping. A study undertaken during 1995 and 1996 identified the economy’s requirement for people with seafaring experience in land based jobs and assessed the implications of a shortfall in supply of seafarers to fill such jobs. This paper is concerned with the demand aspects of that study.     

The role of port cities and transnational municipal networks in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on land and at sea from shipping – An assessment of the World Ports Climate Initiative

In 2008, 55 of the world's largest ports voluntarily adopted the World Ports Climate Declaration (WPCD) and the International Association of Ports and Harbours committed to long-term work on implementation through the World Ports Climate Initiative (WPCI). This article assesses the work of WPCI since 2008 and makes five recommendations that, if implemented, could support efforts to reduce the climate and environmental impacts of port operations and international shipping. In particular, as the impetus for the WPCD came from a port city – Rotterdam – and their engagement with a transnational municipal network – the C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group – the paper considers the role of cities and transnational municipal networks in governance, and the potential for cities to play a more active and influential role in the maritime sector. The article presents an overview of literature on the role and function of transnational municipal networks, the background and development of the WPCD, analysis of the work of WPCI, and a discussion concerning the potential of cities and transnational municipal networks to support and add value to WPCI or similar initiatives in the maritime sector. This informs the conclusions and recommendations to marine policy-makers and port stakeholders.     

Analysis of accidents in Greek shipping during the pre- and post-ISM period

In shipping, safety depends on the reliability of the technical and human components of the ship-system, although the marine environment itself may sometimes be so hostile as to give rise to accidents that are beyond technical and human control. The need for a continuous analysis of shipping accidents is dictated by the accumulated evidence for the predominance of the human factor and the ever-increasing pressure for further improvement on the safety record of shipping. In this context, the effectiveness of enforced regulations towards the promotion of safety policy in shipping is assessed and the debate and focus on this issue are maintained.     

Assessing shipping water vertical loads on a fixed structure by convolution model and wet dam-break tests

Estimation of loads derived from shipping water events in naval and offshore structures is of importance to improve their structural design or to predict changes in their dynamics. For the case of vertical loads on deck of a fixed structure, it is possible to estimate analytically their evolution in time by considering the distribution of shipping water elevations. However, the classical approach to estimate this distribution (i.e., dam-break method) tends to overestimate the amount of water on deck and does not follow the generated decay trends observed experimentally. In the present work, the time evolution of the vertical loads due to shipping water events was studied analytically and experimentally. The validation of the use of a convolution model to estimate the time evolution of vertical loads is presented, aiming to improve the results obtained with classical approaches. A systematic experimental study has been conducted using the wet dam-break method to generate isolated shipping water events, measuring the slow-varying vertical loads on a rectangular fixed structure. A force balance and a high-speed camera have been used at the same sampling rate to monitor the vertical loads and the shipping water evolution on the deck. Results demonstrated that the use of the convolution model improved the representation of the time series of loads compared with the traditional dam-break approach. With this new method, it was possible to capture the peaks and the decay tendencies observed in the experimental data in an approximated way.     

重大风险事件下涉海企业风险溢出效应研究

伴随海洋产业与现代金融业的深度融合，资本市场已成为涉海企业投融资的重要渠道。然而当今世界重大风险事件频发，对资本市场造成强烈冲击，同时加速风险在资本市场的积累与蔓延，对涉海企业带来重大影响，损害海洋产业链供应链的安全与稳定。在此背景下，研究重大风险事件发生时期涉海企业间的风险溢出特征，挖掘不同产业板块间的风险溢出效应，有助于建立高效的风险防控及预警机制，提升海洋产业链供应链的韧性和安全水平，推动海洋经济的高质量增长。文章利用基于TVP-VAR模型的溢出指数法，对属于渔业、海油、海运及船舶产业板块的涉海企业间的风险溢出效应进行分析，并构建风险溢出网络进行拓扑特征分析。实证结果表明：涉海企业对同属产业板块企业的风险溢出强度最大；从产业角度看，渔业及海运产业是风险净接收者，海油及船舶产业是风险净溢出者；风险溢出效应具有时变特征，涉海企业的总体风险溢出指数在重大风险事件冲击下会呈现显著上升趋势；相较于无重大风险事件发生时期，风险溢出网络在重大风险事件发生时期的平均聚类系数更大，即涉海企业在网络中的连接更为紧密，风险流转效率更高。     

Incentive policy for reduction of emission from ships: A case study of China

Particulate matter (PM) emissions from ships in ports are a major contributor to air pollution and smog in port cities. The issue of how to reduce PM emissions has become a critical concern for port city residents and governments. This paper establishes an incentive policy to reduce PM emissions from ships in ports. Using a Panamax bulk carrier as a case study, eight alternative approaches that could be adopted by shipping companies are compared and their operational benefits are estimated. By restricting the analysis to emission control areas (ECAs), the net present value (NPV) model shows that the diesel particulate filter (DPF) is the most advantageous approach with the highest NPV, while the exhaust gas scrubber (EGS) approach is the most economically inefficient. Meanwhile, due to DPF's excellent performance in PM abatement, it is suggested that governments should prioritize the DPF approach when promoting the application of emission reduction technologies. From the perspective of social welfare, a positive social benefit of about US $20,000 will be generated over the life cycle of a ship. However, a low government pricing in China will reduce shipping companies’ operational performance as the emission control zone (ECZ) gradually expands. As a result, an appropriate subsidy scheme is necessary to encourage shipping companies to apply emission reduction technologies.