The influence of long tides on ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea ecosystem has been associated with large biomass fluctuations. If there is a hidden deterministic process behind the Barents Sea ecosystem, we may forecast the biomass in order to control it. This presentation concludes, for the first time, investigations of a long data series from North Atlantic water and the Barents Sea ecosystem. The analysis is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis from the data series of annual mean Atlantic sea level, North Atlantic water temperature, the Kola section water temperature, and species from the Barents Sea ecosystem.The investigation has identified dominant fluctuations correlated with the 9.3-yr phase tide, the 18.6-yr amplitude tide, and a 74-yr superharmonic cycle in the North Atlantic water, Barents Sea water, and Arctic data series. The correlation between the tidal cycles and dominant Barents Sea ecosystem cycles is estimated to be R=0.6 or better. The long-term mean fluctuations correlate with the 74-yr superharmonic cycle. The wavelets analysis shows that the long-term 74-yr cycle may introduce a phase reversal in the identified 18-yr periods of temperature and salinity. The present analysis suggests that forced vertical and horizontal nodal tides influence the ocean's thermohaline circulation, and that they behave as a coupled non-linear oscillation system.The Barents Sea ecosystem analysis shows that the biomass life cycle and the long-term fluctuations correlate better than R=0.5 to the lunar nodal tide spectrum. Barents Sea capelin has a life cycle related to a third harmonic of the 9.3-yr tide. The life cycles of shrimp, cod, herring, and haddock are related to a third harmonic of the 18.6-yr tide. Biomass growth was synchronized to the lunar nodal tide. The biomass growth of zooplankton and shrimp correlates with the current aspect of lunar nodal tidal inflow to the Barents Sea. The long-term biomass fluctuation of cod and herring is correlated with a cycle period of about 3×18.6=55.8 yr. This analysis suggests that we may understand the Barents Sea ecosystem dynamic as a free-coupled oscillating system to the forced lunar nodal tides. This free-coupled oscillating system has a resonance related to the oscillating long tides and the third harmonic and superharmonic cycles.     

An overview of the ecosystems of the Barents and Norwegian Seas and their response to climate variability

The principal features of the marine ecosystems in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and some of their responses to climate variations are described. The physical oceanography is dominated by the influx of warm, high-salinity Atlantic Waters from the south and cold, low-salinity waters from the Arctic. Seasonal ice forms in the Barents Sea with maximum coverage typically in March–April. The total mean annual primary production rates are similar in the Barents and Norwegian Seas (80–90 g C m⁻²), although in the Barents, the production is higher in the Atlantic than in the ice covered Arctic Waters. The zooplankton is dominated by Calanus species, C. finmarchicus in the Atlantic Waters of the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and C. glacialis in the Arctic Waters of the Barents Sea. The fish species in the Norwegian Sea are mostly pelagics such as herring (Clupea harengus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), while in the Barents Sea there are both pelagics (capelin (Mallotus villosus Müller), herring, and polar cod (Boreogadus saida Lepechin)) and demersals (cod (Gadus morhua L.) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)). The latter two species spawn in the Norwegian Sea along the slope edge (haddock) or along the coast (cod) and drift into the Barents Sea. Marine mammals and seabirds, although comprising only a relatively small percentage of the biomass and production in the region, play an important role as consumers of zooplankton and small fish. While top-down control by predators certainly is significant within the two regions, there is also ample evidence of bottom-up control. Climate variability influences the distribution of several fish species, such as cod, herring and blue whiting, with northward shifts during extended warm periods and southward movements during cool periods. Climate-driven increases in primary and secondary production also lead to increased fish production through higher abundance and improved growth rates.     

Atlantic Water flow through the Barents and Kara Seas

The pathway and transformation of water from the Norwegian Sea across the Barents Sea and through the St. Anna Trough are documented from hydrographic and current measurements of the 1990s. The transport through an array of moorings in the north-eastern Barents Sea was between 0.6 Sv in summer and 2.6 Sv in winter towards the Kara Sea and between zero and 0.3 Sv towards the Barents Sea with a record mean net flow of 1.5 Sv. The westward flow originates in the Fram Strait branch of Atlantic Water at the Eurasian continental slope, while the eastward flow constitutes the Barents Sea branch, continuing from the western Barents Sea opening.About 75% of the eastward flow was colder than 0°C. The flow was strongly sheared, with the highest velocities close to the bottom. A deep layer with almost constant temperature of about −0.5°C throughout the year formed about 50% of the flow to the Kara Sea. This water was a mixture between warm saline Atlantic Water and cold, brine-enriched water generated through freezing and convection in polynyas west of Novaya Zemlya, and possibly also at the Central Bank. Its salinity is lower than that of the Atlantic Water at its entrance to the Barents Sea, because the ice formation occurs in a low salinity surface layer. The released brine increases the salinity and density of the surface layer sufficiently for it to convect, but not necessarily above the salinity of the Atlantic Water. The freshwater west of Novaya Zemlya primarily stems from continental runoff and at the Central Bank probably from ice melt. The amount of fresh water compares to about 22% of the terrestrial freshwater supply to the western Barents Sea. The deep layer continues to the Kara Sea without further change and enters the Nansen Basin at or below the core depth of the warm, saline Fram Strait branch. Because it is colder than 0°C it will not be addressed as Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean.In earlier decades, the Atlantic Water advected from Fram Strait was colder by almost 2 K as compared to the 1990s, while the dense Barents Sea water was colder by up to 1 K only in a thin layer at the bottom and the salinity varied significantly. However, also with the resulting higher densities, deep Eurasian Basin water properties were met only in the 1970s. The very low salinities of the Great Salinity Anomaly in 1980 were not discovered in the outflow data. We conclude that the thermal variability of inflowing Atlantic water is damped in the Barents Sea, while the salinity variation is strongly modified through the freshwater conditions and ice growth in the convective area off Novaya Zemlya.     

Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea

Dense water masses from Arctic shelf seas are an important part of the Arctic thermohaline system. We present previously unpublished observations from shallow banks in the Barents Sea, which reveal large interannual variability in dense water temperature and salinity. To examine the formation and circulation of dense water, and the processes governing interannual variability, a regional coupled ice-ocean model is applied to the Barents Sea for the period 1948-2007. Volume and characteristics of dense water are investigated with respect to the initial autumn surface salinity, atmospheric cooling, and sea-ice growth (salt flux). In the southern Barents Sea (Spitsbergen Bank and Central Bank) dense water formation is associated with advection of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea and corresponding variations in initial salinities and heat loss at the air-sea interface. The characteristics of the dense water on the Spitsbergen Bank and Central Bank are thus determined by the regional climate of the Barents Sea. Preconditioning is also important to dense water variability on the northern banks, and can be related to local ice melt (Great Bank) and properties of the Novaya Zemlya Coastal Current (Novaya Zemlya Bank). The dense water mainly exits the Barents Sea between Frans Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, where it constitutes 63% (1.2 Sv) of the net outflow and has an average density of 1028.07 kg m⁻³. An amount of 0.4 Sv enters the Arctic Ocean between Svalbard and Frans Josef Land. Covering 9% of the ocean area, the banks contribute with approximately 1/3 of the exported dense water. Formation on the banks is more important when the Barents Sea is in a cold state (less Atlantic Water inflow, more sea-ice). During warm periods with high throughflow more dense water is produced broadly over the shelf by general cooling of the northward flowing Atlantic Water. However, our results indicate that during extremely warm periods (1950s and late 2000s) the total export of dense water to the Arctic Ocean becomes strongly reduced.     

极地低压对费拉姆海峡大西洋入流水天气尺度变化的影响

The Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait(78°50′N) has synoptic scale variability based on an array of moorings over the period of 1998–2010. The synoptic scale variability of Atlantic inflow, whose significant cycle is 3–16 d, occurs mainly in winter and spring(from January to April) and is related with polar lows in the Barents Sea. On the synoptic scale, the enhancement(weakening) of Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait is accompanied by less(more)polar lows in the Barents Sea. Wind stress curl induced by polar lows in the Barents Sea causes Ekman-transport,leads to decrease of sea surface height in the Barents Sea, due to geostrophic adjustment, further induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly around the Barents Sea, and causes the weakening of the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait. Our results highlight the importance of polar lows in forcing the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait and can help us to further understand the effect of Atlantic warm water on the change of the Arctic Ocean.     

Food webs and carbon flux in the Barents Sea

Within the framework of the physical forcing, we describe and quantify the key ecosystem components and basic food web structure of the Barents Sea. Emphasis is given to the energy flow through the ecosystem from an end-to-end perspective, i.e. from bacteria, through phytoplankton and zooplankton to fish, mammals and birds. Primary production in the Barents is on average 93 g C m⁻² y⁻¹, but interannually highly variable (±19%), responding to climate variability and change (e.g. variations in Atlantic Water inflow, the position of the ice edge and low-pressure pathways). The traditional focus upon large phytoplankton cells in polar regions seems less adequate in the Barents, as the cell carbon in the pelagic is most often dominated by small cells that are entangled in an efficient microbial loop that appears to be well coupled to the grazing food web. Primary production in the ice-covered waters of the Barents is clearly dominated by planktonic algae and the supply of ice biota by local production or advection is small. The pelagic–benthic coupling is strong, in particular in the marginal ice zone. In total 80% of the harvestable production is channelled through the deep-water communities and benthos. 19% of the harvestable production is grazed by the dominating copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis in Atlantic or Arctic Water, respectively. These two species, in addition to capelin (Mallotus villosus) and herring (Clupea harengus), are the keystone organisms in the Barents that create the basis for the rich assemblage of higher trophic level organisms, facilitating one of the worlds largest fisheries (capelin, cod, shrimps, seals and whales). Less than 1% of the harvestable production is channelled through the most dominating higher trophic levels such as cod, harp seals, minke whales and sea birds. Atlantic cod, seals, whales, birds and man compete for harvestable energy with similar shares. Climate variability and change, differences in recruitment, variable resource availability, harvesting restrictions and management schemes will influence the resource exploitation between these competitors, that basically depend upon the efficient energy transfer from primary production to highly successful, lipid-rich zooplankton and pelagic fishes.     

Trophic structure of the Barents Sea fish assemblage with special reference to the cod stock recoverability

The species composition and trophic structure of the Barents Sea fish assemblage is analysed based on data from research survey trawls and diet analyses of various species. Atlantic cod was the dominant fish species encountered, accounting for more than 55% by abundance or biomass. Only five fish species (long rough dab, thorny skate, Greenland halibut, deepwater redfish and saithe) were sufficiently abundant to be considered as possible food competitors with cod in the Barents Sea. However, possible trophic competition is not high, due to low spatial and temporal overlap between cod and these other species. Analyses of fish assemblages and trophic structures of the Barents Sea and other areas (North Sea, Western Greenland, Newfoundland-Labrador shelf) suggest that Barents Sea cod is the only cod stock for which the ability to recover may not be restricted by trophic relations among fishes, due to a lack of other abundant predatory species and low potential for competition caused by spatial-temporal changes.     

Trophic relations of capelin Mallotus villosus and polar cod Boreogadus saida in the Barents Sea as a factor of impact on the ecosystem

The purpose of the study is to assess the role of trophic relations of the dominant pelagic fishes capelin and polar cod in the Barents Sea with regard to distribution and accessibility as prey for the Atlantic cod in warm years (2004–2005). Unlike in the previous period, during these warm years a dramatic increase of the polar cod population resulted in a northwards expansion of the feeding grounds where overlapping of polar cod and capelin concentrations was observed. This caused an increased competition for copepods, which are the main food item for young fish. In the areas dominated by polar cod the shortage of copepods forced immature capelin to switch to the chaetognath Sagitta, which affected their fatness negatively.During the warm years the feeding grounds of Atlantic cod also expanded, to a large degree caused by the shortage of their main food, the capelin. In 2004–2005 the cod formed feeding concentrations in the north and northeast Barents Sea where they fed on the capelin. In this area the consumption of polar cod by cod increased, and in some local areas the polar cod practically replaced the capelin in the diet of cod. In general polar cod in the diet of Atlantic cod were more important in the northern than in the southern part of the Barents Sea. The fatness of cod was extremely low during the whole spring–summer period (until August), and after the feeding period the fatness index of the Atlantic cod became lower than the average long-term autumn value.     

Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s–1960s and the 1990s–2000s

Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the lowest on record. The different responses of cod to the two warm events, in particular the reduced cod production during the recent warm period, are attributed to the effects of intense fishing pressure and possibly related ecosystem changes. The implications of the results of the comparisons on the development of cod scenarios under future climate change are addressed.     

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions continued through to the 1950s and 1960s, with the timing of the decline to colder temperatures varying with location. Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The maximum recorded movement involved cod, which spread approximately 1200 km northward along West Greenland. Migration patterns of “warmer water” species also changed with earlier arrivals and later departures. New spawning sites were observed farther north for several species or stocks while for others the relative contribution from northern spawning sites increased. Some southern species of fish that were unknown in northern areas prior to the warming event became occasional, and in some cases, frequent visitors. Higher recruitment and growth led to increased biomass of important commercial species such as cod and herring in many regions of the northern North Atlantic. Benthos associated with Atlantic waters spread northward off Western Svalbard and eastward into the eastern Barents Sea. Based on increased phytoplankton and zooplankton production in several areas, it is argued that bottom-up processes were the primary cause of these changes. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.     

Modelling multi-species interactions in the Barents Sea ecosystem with special emphasis on minke whales and their interactions with cod, herring and capelin

The Barents Sea ecosystem, one of the most productive and commercially important ecosystems in the world, has experienced major fluctuations in species abundance the past five decades. Likely causes are natural variability, climate change, overfishing and predator–prey interactions. In this study, we use an age-length structured multi-species model (Gadget, Globally applicable Area-Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) to analyse the historic population dynamics of major fish and marine mammal species in the Barents Sea. The model was used to examine possible effects of a number of plausible biological and fisheries scenarios. The results suggest that changes in cod mortality from fishing or cod cannibalism levels have the largest effect on the ecosystem, while changes to the capelin fishery have had only minor effects. Alternate whale migration scenarios had only a moderate impact on the modelled ecosystem. Indirect effects are seen to be important, with cod fishing pressure, cod cannibalism and whale predation on cod having an indirect impact on capelin, emphasising the importance of multi-species modelling in understanding and managing ecosystems. Models such as the one presented here provide one step towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management.     

Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.     

Postglacial paleoceanographic environments in the Barents and Baltic seas

This paper presents reconstructions of ice sheet boundaries, lacustrine and marine paleobasins, as well as the connections of the Barents and Baltic seas with the North Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. The reconstructions are based on original and published data obtained from the northern and western parts of the Barents Sea and Baltic depressions with account for the available regional schematic maps of deglaciation. The early deglaciation of the Scandinavian–Barents ice sheet culminated with the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.5–12.9 cal ka BP), which was characterized by a more vigorous Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a corresponding increase in surface Atlantic water inflow into the Barents Sea through deep troughs. The Baltic Ice Lake (BIL) remained a dammed-up isolated basin during deglaciation from 16.0 to 11.7 cal ka BP. In the Younger Dryas (YD), the lake drained into the North Sea and was replaced by a brackish Yoldia Sea (YS) at the beginning of the Holocene (Preboreal, 11.7–10.7 cal ka BP), due to a limited connection between two basins through the Närke Strait. In the Barents Sea, the next increase in the Atlantic water influx into the deep basins corresponded to terminal YD and Preboreal events with a culmination in the Early Holocene. The Yoldia Sea became a lake again during the next stage, the Ancylus (~10.7–8.8 cal ka BP). Atlantic water inflow both into the Barents and Baltic seas varied during the Holocene, with a maximum contribution in the Early Holocene, when the Littorina Sea (LS, 8–4 cal ka BP) connection with the North Sea via the Danish Straits was formed to replace the Ancylus Lake. The recent, post-Littorina stage (PS, the last 4 cal ka) of the Baltic Sea evolution began in the Late Holocene.     

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.     

Link between anomalously cold winters in Russia and sea-ice decline in the Barents Sea

There were several anomalously cold winter weather regimes in Russia in the early 21st century. These regimes were usually associated with a blocking anticyclone south of the Barents Sea. Numerical simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using prescribed sea-ice concentration (SIC) data for different periods during the last 50 years showed that a rapid sea-ice area decline in the Barents Sea in the last decade could bring about the formation of such a blocking anticyclone and cooling over northern Eurasia. The SIC reduction in the former period, from the second half of the 1960s to the first half of the 1990s, results in a weaker response of opposite sign. This suggests a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to the SIC reduction in the Barents Sea, which has been previously found in the idealized AGCM simulations. An impact of the Barents Sea SIC reduction on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular, on the formation of the anomalously low NAO index, is found. The results indicate an important role that the Barents Sea, a region with the largest variability of the ocean–atmosphere heat exchange in the Arctic in wintertime, plays in generating anomalous weather regimes in Russia.     

Comparison of DNA damage in the early life stages of cod, Gadus morhua, originating from the Barents Sea and Baltic Sea

DNA adducts in cod embryos and larvae were analysed by ³²P-postlabeling to test the hypothesis that anthropogenic substances, which could form reactive intermediates, are involved in the reproductive failure of cod (Gadus morhua) from the Baltic Sea. A comparison with cod from the Barents Sea was performed. The mean value of DNA adducts in cod embryos/larvae from the Baltic Sea was 2.3 nmol of adducts/mol nucleotides, compared to 0.12 nmol of adducts/mol nucleotides in the embryos/larvae from the Barents Sea.     

Winter distribution of euphausiids (Euphausiacea) in the Barents Sea (2000–2005)

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Barents Sea euphausiids populations in the warm period (2000–2005) based on the study of their structure dynamics and distribution under the influence of abiotic and biotic factors. For estimation of their aggregations in the bottom layer, the traditional method was used with the help of the modified egg net (0.2 m² opening area, 564 μm mesh size). The net is used for collecting euphausiids in the autumn–winter period when their activity is reduced, which results in high-catch efficiency. The findings confirmed the major formation patterns of the euphausiids species composition associated with climate change in the Arctic basin. As before, in the warm years, one can see a clear-cut differentiation of space distribution of the dominant euphausiids Thysanoessa genus with localization of the more thermophilic Thysanoessa inermis in the north-west Barents Sea and Thysanoessa raschii in the east. The major euphausiids aggregations are formed of these species. In 2004, the first data of euphausiids distribution in the northern Barents Sea (77–79°N) were obtained, and demonstrated extremely high concentrations of T. inermis in this area, with the biomass as high as 1.7–2.4 g m⁻² in terms of dry weight. These data have improved our knowledge of the distribution and euphausiids abundance during periods of elevated sea-water temperatures in the Barents Sea. The oceanic Atlantic species were found to increase in abundance due to elevated advection to the Barents Sea during the study period. Thus, after nearly a 30-year-long absence of the moderate subtropical Nematoscelis megalops in the Barents Sea, they were found again in 2003–2005. However in comparison with 1960, the north-east border of its distribution considerably shifted to 73°50′N 50°22′E. The portion of Meganyctiphanes norvegica also varied considerably—from 10% to 20% of the total euphausiids population in the warm 1950s–1960s almost to complete disappearing in 1970–1990s. The peak of this species’ occurrence (18–26%) took place in the beginning of warm period (1999–2000) after a succession of cold years. The subsequent reduction of the relative abundance of M. norvegica to 7% might have been mostly caused by fish predation during a period of low population densities of capelin. This high predation pressure may therefore have been mediated both by other pelagic fishes (i.e. herring, blue whiting, polar cod) but also by demersal fishes such as cod and haddock. Similar sharp fluctuations in the capelin stock (the major consumer of euphausiids) created marked perturbations in the food web in the Barents Sea in the middle 1980s and the early 1990s.     

Mass, Heat and Salt Balances in the Eastern Barents Sea Obtained by Inversion of Hydrographic Section Data

Standard hydrological section data, collected in the eastern Barents Sea in September 1997, have been analyzed using a variational data assimilation technique. This method allows us to obtain temperature, salinity and velocity fields that are consistent with observations and dynamically balanced within the framework of a steady-state model describing large-scale nearly geostrophic circulation. Error bars of the optimized fields are computed by explicit inversion of the Hessian matrix. The optimized velocity field is in agreement with independent velocity observations derived from surface drifter trajectories in the southwestern part of the Barents Sea. Optimized fields provide the following estimates of integral characteristics of the circulation in the region: i) the North Cape current transport is 2.12 ± 0.25 Sv; ii) the Karskie Vorota Strait throughflow is 0.7 ± 0.06 Sv; iii) heat flux with Atlantic water is 4.7 ± 0.16⋅10¹¹ W; iv) salt import from the Atlantic Ocean is 7.41 ± 0.46⋅10³ kg/s. The imbalance of the heat budget in the eastern part of the Barents Sea indicates the presence of statistically insignificant surface heat fluxes which are less than 1 W/m². This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Reproduction of the large-scale state of water and sea ice in the arctic ocean in 1948–2002: Part I. Numerical model

Calculations were performed using a model of the combined circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (from 20° S), the Arctic Ocean, and the Bering Sea with a resolution of 0.25° by latitude and longitude for 1958–2006. The results are compared with observational data and results obtained by other models. Model estimates were obtained for the evolution of the Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Increased transports of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin were found for the first half of the 1990s and 2004–2006. The relation between Atlantic water transports into the Arctic basin and variations in the North Atlantic oscillation is shown. A positive trend of Atlantic water inflow into the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait (0.061 Sv per year) was revealed. The evolution of the freshwater-layer thickness in the Beaufort Circulation (BC) is considered. There are three periods of its increased values combined with the increased anticyclonic vorticity of BC currents: the 1960s, the 1980s, and from 1999 until now. The model estimate for a statistical mean timescale of the cycle of freshwater concentration and sink from the BC is 16 years, which is close to currently existing estimates. The evolution of anticyclonic vorticity of currents leads the variations in the freshwater-layer thickness of the BC by 1.75 years. Since the mid-1970s, there have been long positive trends of both the freshwater-layer thickness and anticyclonic vorticity of currents in the BC. In the same time period, there has been a satellite-registered negative trend in the ice area in the Arctic, which was reproduced by the model.     

Can cod farming affect cod fishing? A system evaluation of sustainability

The cod resources in the Barents Sea constitute the most important fisheries in Norway. In order to reduce resource allocation conflicts among different gear and vessel groups and to ensure profit for all participants throughout the value chain, the sector is thoroughly organized. The institutions established to ensure long-term sustainability, have been developed within the framework of a joint Norwegian–Russian fisheries management regime. However, due to a very high fishing mortality, the cod stock is now under severe pressure. In addition, a major part of the cod fisheries is highly seasonal and unable to be a stable supplier to neither the land-based industry nor demanding international markets. In parallel, cod farming is expected to become a new emerging industry, with potential to copy the success of farmed Atlantic salmon. Many actors within the cod fisheries fear the future competition from the growing cod farming sector. With reference to important attributes that characterize the cod fisheries and cod farming, this paper discusses how a future farming industry may affect the traditional cod fisheries. Moreover, we discuss how the fisheries may be forced to organize in the future to encounter the expected competition from cod farming.