SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA

Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10^-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.     

A Plinian treatment of fallout from Hawaiian lava fountains

A new model is presented which simulates the dispersal and deposition of material from a Hawaiian eruption column. The model treats the Hawaiian column as a coarse-grained Plinian column and uses a modified version of the Wilson and Walker [Wilson, L., Walker, G.P.L., 1987. Explosive volcanic eruptions: VI. Ejecta dispersal in Plinian eruptions: the control of eruption conditions and atmospheric properties. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 89, 657–679.] Plinian pyroclast dispersal model to simulate the fall out of material during a Hawaiian eruption. The model results are found to be in good agreement with independent estimates of various parameters made for the 1959 Kilauea Iki eruption of Kilauea volcano. The close agreement between the model results and these independent estimates shows that, dynamically, Hawaiian eruptions are indistinguishable from Plinian eruptions. The major differences in the styles and deposits of these two types of eruptions are accounted for by differences in the mass fluxes and gas contents of the erupting magmas and, most fundamentally, by differences in the grainsize distribution of the erupted clasts. Plume heights predicted by the model are greater than those found for previous models of Hawaiian eruptions. This is because previous models did not allow for the progressive fall out of particles from the plume and, more importantly, made no correction for the velocity disequilibrium between gas and clasts when the grainsize distribution is coarse.     

Evaluating suitability of a tephra dispersal model as part of a risk assessment framework

In volcanic risk assessment it is necessary to determine the appropriate level of sophistication for a given predictive model within the contexts of multiple sources of uncertainty and coupling between models. A component of volcanic risk assessment for the proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain (Nevada, USA) involves prediction of dispersal of contaminated tephra during violent Strombolian eruptions and the subsequent transport of that tephra toward a hypothetical individual via surface processes. We test the suitability of a simplified model for volcanic plume transport and fallout tephra deposition (ASHPLUME) coupled to a surface sediment-transport model (FAR) that calculates the redistribution of tephra, and in light of inherent uncertainties in the system. The study focuses on two simplifying assumptions in the ASHPLUME model: 1) constant eruptive column height and 2) constant wind speed and direction during an eruption. Variations in tephra dispersal resulting from unsteady column height and wind conditions produced variations up to a factor of two in the concentration of tephra in sediment transported to the control population. However, the effects of watershed geometry and terrain, which control local remobilization of tephra, overprint sensitivities to eruption parameters. Because the combination of models used here shows limited sensitivity to the actual details of ash fall, a simple fall model suffices to estimate tephra mass delivered to the hypothetical individual.     

Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF

The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.     

PRELIMINARY VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONATION IN JINLONGDINGZI VOLCANO,LONGANG VOLCANO AREA,JILIN PROVINCE,CHINA

Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km². The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger.     

Nonequilibrium flow in volcanic conduits and application to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79

A steady-state, one-dimensional, and nonhomogeneous two-phase flow model was developed for the prediction of local flow properties in volcanic conduits. The model incorporates the effects of relative velocity between the phases and for the variable magma viscosity. The resulting set of nonlinear differential equations was solved by a stiff numerical solver and the results were verified with the results of basaltic fissure eruptions obtained by a homogeneous two-phase flow model, before applying the model to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and Vesuvius volcanoes. This verification, and a study of the sensitivity of several modeling parameters, proved effective in establishing the confidence in the predicted nonequilibrium results of flow distribution in the conduits when the mass flow rate is critical or maximum. The application of the model to the plinian eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79, demonstrates the sensitivity of the magma discharge rate and distributions of pressure, volumetric fraction, and velocities of phases, on the hydrous magma viscosity feeding the volcanic conduits. Larger magma viscosities produce smaller mass discharge rates (or greater conduit diameters), smaller exit pressures, larger disequilibrium between the phases, and larger difference between the local lithostatic and fluid pressures in the conduit. This large pressure difference occurs when magma fragments and may cause a rupture of the conduit wall rocks, producing a closure of the conduit and cessation of the volcanic eruption, or water pouring into the conduit from underground aquifers leading to phreatomagmatic explosions. The motion of the magma fragmentation zone along a conduit during an eruption can be caused by the varying viscosity of magma feeding the volcanic conduit and may cause intermittent phreatomagmatic explosions during the plinian phases as different underground aquifers are activated at different depths. The variation of magma viscosity during the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 and Vesuvius in AD 79 is normally associated with the tapping of magmas from different depths of the magma chambers. This variation of viscosity, which can include different crystal and dissolved water contents, can also produce conduit wall erosion, the onset and collapse of volcanic columns above the vent, and the onset and cessation of pyroclastic flows and surges.     

The impact of moderate-scale explosive eruptions on stratospheric gas injections

Volcanic gases such as SO ₂, H ₂S, HCl and COS emitted during explosive eruptions significantly affect atmospheric chemistry and therefore the Earth's climate. We have evaluated the dependence of volcanic gas emission into the atmosphere on altitude, latitude, and tectonic setting of volcanoes and on the season in which eruptions occurred. These parameters markedly influence final stratospheric gas loading. The latitudes and altitudes of 360 active volcanoes were compared to the height of the tropopause to calculate the potential quantity of volcanic gases injected into the stratosphere. We calculated a possible stratospheric gas loading based on different volcanic plume heights (6, 10, and 15 km) generated by moderate-scale explosive eruptions to show the importance of the actual plume height and volcano location. At a plume height of 15 km for moderate-scale explosive eruptions, a volcano at sea level can cause stratospheric gas loading because the maximum distance to the tropopause is 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°). Eruptions in the tropics have to be more powerful to inject gas into the stratosphere than eruptions at high latitudes because the tropopause rises from ca. 9–11 km at the poles to 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°N and S). The equatorial region is important for stratospheric gas injection because it is the area with the highest frequency of eruptions. Gas injected into the stratosphere in equatorial areas may spread globally into both hemispheres.     

龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。     

Experimental constraints on degassing and permeability in volcanic conduit flow

This study assesses the effect of decompression rate on two processes that directly influence the behavior of volcanic eruptions: degassing and permeability in magmas. We studied the degassing of magma with experiments on hydrated natural rhyolitic glass at high pressure and temperature. From the data collected, we defined and characterized one degassing regime in equilibrium and two regimes in disequilibrium. Equilibrium bubble growth occurs when the decompression rate is slower than 0.1 MPa s^–1, while higher rates cause porosity to deviate rapidly from equilibrium, defining the first disequilibrium regime of degassing. If the deviation is large enough, a critical threshold of super-saturation is reached and bubble growth accelerates, defining the second disequilibrium regime. We studied permeability and bubble coalescence in magma with experiments using the same rhyolitic melt in open degassing conditions. Under these open conditions, we observed that bubbles start to coalesce at ~43 vol% porosity, regardless of decompression rate. Coalescence profoundly affects bubble texture and size distributions, and induces the melt to become permeable. We determined coalescence to occur on a time scale (~180 s) independent of decompression rate. We parameterized and incorporated our experimental results into a 1D conduit flow model to explore the implications of our findings on eruptive behavior of rhyolitic melts with low crystal contents stored in the upper crust. Compared to previous models that assume equilibrium degassing of the melt during ascent, the introduction of disequilibrium degassing reduces the deviation from lithostatic pressure by ~25%, the acceleration at high porosities (>50 vol%) by a factor 5, and the associated decompression rate by an order of magnitude. The integration of the time scale of coalescence to the model shows that the transition between explosive and effusive eruptive regimes is sensitive to small variations of the initial magma ascent speed, and that flow conditions near fragmentation may significantly be affected by bubble coalescence and gas escape.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell     

Geologic implications of microfossils in submarine volcanics

Samples of basalt and palagonite tuff-breccia dredged from the East Pacific Rise and Eickelberg Ridge in the northeast Pacific contain Foraminifera, diatoms, and other microorganisms associated with sediments. Microfossils are found in large vesicles in the interior of the rock. Palagonite tuff-breccias include sediments containing microfossils. It is shown that these fossils and sediments were incorporated in the basalts and palagonite tuff-breccias during eruptions. Samples from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and from Iceland substantiate this thesis. A model for submarine eruptions, which is an extension of Nayudu’s hypothesis for the origin of guyots, is presented. This model suggests that considerable reworking of sediments occurs during submarine eruptions. It is further concluded that: (1) Turbidity currents are generated by submarine eruptions; (2) These turbidity currents provide a mechanism for transport of volcanic material on the sea floor, which may produce graded sediments; (3) Low-velocity layers on the margins of the ridges, rises, and sea-mounts are primary pillow-palagonite tuff-breccias with intercalated sediments ranging in density from 2.00 – 2.6 g/cc. (4) Interpretation of the age of truncation of some seamounts based on fossils contained in volcanic breccias are questionable. On the contrary, these fossils may suggest the maximum age of the eruption. Observations presented on the role of submarine volcanism further suggest that some interpretations of age relations in the geologic column may need re-evaluation.     

Viscous dissipation effects in magma conduits

Fujii and Uyeda (1974) postulated that viscous dissipation may lead to thermal instability and explosive eruptions in the case of volcanic conduits or dikes. Although their conclusions were based on a viscosity function which was valid over a very narrow temperature range, calculations presented here lead to the same result for critical dike width. A simple forced intrusion model, without viscous dissipation effects, is also developed and found to be sufficient to explain the observed width of volcanic conduits and dikes. The mechanism of thermal runaway may present problems for magma energy extraction.     

New insights into Late Pleistocene explosive volcanic activity and caldera formation on Ischia (southern Italy)

A new pyroclastic stratigraphy is presented for the island of Ischia, Italy, for the period ∼75–50 ka BP. The data indicate that this period bore witness to the largest eruptions recorded on the island and that it was considerably more volcanically active than previously thought. Numerous vents were probably active during this period. The deposits of at least 10 explosive phonolite to basaltic-trachyandesite eruptions are described and interpreted. They record a diverse range of explosive volcanic activity including voluminous fountain-fed ignimbrite eruptions, fallout from sustained eruption columns, block-and-ash flows, and phreatomagmatic eruptions. Previously unknown eruptions have been recognised for the first time on the island. Several of the eruptions produced pyroclastic density currents that covered the whole island as well as the neighbouring island of Procida and parts of the mainland. The morphology of Ischia was significantly different to that seen today, with edifices to the south and west and a submerged depression in the centre. The largest volcanic event, the Monte Epomeo Green Tuff (MEGT) resulted in caldera collapse across all or part of the island. It is shown to comprise at least two thick intracaldera ignimbrite flow-units, separated by volcaniclastic sediments that were deposited during a pause in the eruption. Extracaldera deposits of the MEGT include a pumice fall deposit emplaced during the opening phases of the eruption, a widespread lithic lag breccia outcropping across much of Ischia and Procida, and a distal ignimbrite in south-west Campi Flegrei. During this period the style and magnitude of volcanism was dictated by the dynamics of a large differentiated magma chamber, which was partially destroyed during the MEGT eruption. This contrasts with the small-volume Holocene and historical effusive and explosive activity on Ischia, the timing and distribution of which has been controlled by the resurgence of the Monte Epomeo block. The new data contribute to a clearer understanding of the long-term volcanic and magmatic evolution of Ischia.     

The possible effects of large 19th and 20th century volcanic eruptions on zonal and hemispheric surface temperatures

The contribution of volcanic material to the stratosphere from major eruptions within the last two centuries has been estimated using volcanological criteria, including eruption type, eruption column height, volume and duration of eruption, and composition and degree of fragmentation of magma. The chronology of major explosive volcanic eruptions is compared with a record of mean surface-temperature deviation (ΔT) for the same interval constructed from all available temperature data. The temperature records are divided into 6 latitudinal zones, allowing analysis for individual zones where temperature changes induced by aerosol perturbation might be intensified.We focus on the explosive volcanic events which by our estimates injected the most material into the stratosphere. These include Tambora 1815, Krakatau 1883, Santa Maria 1902, Katmai 1912 and Quizapu 1932. Such eruptions appear to have produced a consistent but small temperature decrease on the order of 0.2° to 0.5°C on a hemispheric scale for periods ranging from one to five years, although these changes are similar to background temperature variations. The maximum change in ΔT after some of these explosions appears to lag by up to three years in going from equatorial to polar latitudes.Somewhat smaller eruptions, e.g. Agung 1963 and possibly Cosiguina 1835, seem to have produced about the same perturbation in ΔT as the larger eruptions. This suggests either a limiting mechanism on loading of the aerosol layer after a volcanic eruption or, that the composition of injected material (i.e., the ratio of silicate “dust” to volatiles, and composition of the volatiles) may significantly effect stratospheric optical depth perturbation. Temperatures do not remain depressed for a longer period after a series of closely timed eruptions (e.g., the 1881–1889 or the 1902–1903 sequences) than after single events.     

Sedimentation of tephra by volcanic plumes. Part 2: controls on thickness and grain-size variations of tephra fall deposits

A model for sedimentation from turbulent suspensions predicts that tephra concentration decreases exponentially with time in an ascending volcanic column and in the overlying umbrella cloud. For grain-size distributions typical of plinian eruptions application of the model predicts for thickness variations in good agreement with the exponential thinning observed in tephra fall deposits. The model also predicts a proximal region where fallout from the plume margins results in a more rapid decrease in thickness so that the deposit shows two segments on a thickness versus distance plot. Several examples of deposits with two segments are known. The distance at which the two segments intersect is a measure of eruption column height. The thickness half-distance ( equivalent to the dispersal index of Walker) is strongly correlated with column height, but is also weakly dependent on grain-size distribution of the ejecta. For a dispersal index of 500 km² (the plinian/subplinian boundary of Walker) column heights between 14 and 18 km are calculated. For ultraplinian deposits with D>50000 km² column heights of at least 45 km are implied. Model grain-size distributions of the deposits have sorting values comparable to those observed in tephra fall deposits formed from eruption columns in a weak or negligible cross-wind. Median diameter decreases exponentially with distance as is observed. Sorting () improves with distance as is observed in plinian deposits in a weak wind. However, tephra fall deposits formed in strong winds do not show improved sorting with distance and proximal deposits are typically somewhat better sorted than the model calculations. Differences are attributed to the influence of wind which disperses particles further than predicted in our model and which has an increasing influence as particle size decreases.     

琼北地区晚更新世射气岩浆喷发初步研究

琼北地区晚更新世射气岩浆喷发形成众多的低平火山口 ,出露典型的基浪堆积物 ,在火口垣露头上可清晰地观察到大型低角度交错层理、板状层理和波状层理以及远源相的球粒状增生火山砾。玄武质岩浆在上升过程中遇水爆炸形成低平火山口及基浪堆积 ,为认识琼北地区新生代以来的火山活动规律和琼北 -雷南地区的构造环境 ,以及未来火山灾害预测提供了重要的依据     

On precursor of Kamchatkan volcanoes eruptions based on data from satellite monitoring

Kamchatka is one of the most active volcanic regions on the planet. Large explosive volcanic eruptions, in which the ash elevates up to 8?C15 km above sea level, occur here every 1.5 years. Study of eruptions precursors in order to reduce a volcanic risk for the population is an urgent problem of Volcanology. The available precursor of strong explosive eruptions of volcanoes, identified from satellite data (thermal anomaly), as well as examples of successful prediction of eruptions using this precursor, are represented in this paper.     

Sensitivity of the dynamics of volcanic eruption columns to their shape

This paper presents a one-dimensional steady-state model to investigate the sensitivity of the dynamics of sustained eruption columns to radius variations with height due to thermal expansion of the entrained air, and decreases in atmospheric pressure with height. In contrast to a number of previous models using an equation known as the entrainment assumption, the new model is based on similarity arguments to derive an equation set equivalent to the model proposed by Woods [Bull Volcanol 50:169–193, 1988]. This approach allows investigation of the effect of gas compressibility on the entrainment rate of ambient air, which has been little examined for a system in which a decrease in pressure significantly affects the density stratification of a compressible fluid. The new model provides results that include two end members: one in which the volume change within the eruption columns affects only the radial expansion without changing the vertical motion, and the other is the converse. The Woods [Bull Volcanol 50:169–193, 1988] model can be regarded as being between those two end members. The range of uncertainty arises because the extremely high temperature of discharged materials from a volcanic vent, and the exceptional terminal height of the eruption columns, allow significant expansion of the gas component in the eruption columns, making them behave differently from common turbulent plumes. This study indicates that the maximum height of the eruption columns is affected considerably by this uncertainty, particularly when the eruption columns extend above a height of 10 km, at which the pressure is about one-fourth the pressure at the ground surface. Column collapse may also be suppressed in wider parameter ranges than previously estimated. However, the uncertainty can be reduced by measuring column radii through a vertical profile during actual volcanic eruptions. Accordingly, this paper suggests that appropriate observation of eruption column shapes is essential for improving our understanding of the dynamics of eruption columns.     

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).     

Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions

We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an ‘average interaction’ between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.