拉伸盆地动力学定量模拟研究的进展及趋势

拉伸盆地作为一种重要的盆地类型一直受到重视，定量动力学模拟是一种迅速兴起并发展起来的一种盆地分析的方法，笔者主要介绍了：（1）拉伸盆地的沉降机制。（2）拉伸盆地的定量动力学模型。（3）拉伸盆地定量动力学模拟的实现方法。（4）拉伸盆地定量动力学模拟过程中的不确定性，从而使人们对这一领域有一个清晰的认识和了解，促进这一领域的研究和发展。     

Monitoring and predicting land use change in Tripoli Metropolitan City using an integrated Markov chain and cellular automata models in GIS

The rapid development of cities in developing countries results in deteriorating of agricultural lands. The majority of these agricultural lands are converted to urban areas, which affects the ecosystems. In this research, an integrated model of Markov chain and cellular automata models was applied to simulate urban land use changes and to predict their spatial patterns in Tripoli metropolitan area, Libya. It is worth mentioning that there is not much research has been done about land use/cover change in Libyan cities. In this study, the performance of integrated CA–Markov model was assessed. Firstly, the Markov chain model was used to simulate and predict the land use change quantitatively; then, the CA model was applied to simulate the dynamic spatial patterns of changes explicitly. The urban land use change from 1984 to 2010 was modelled using the CA–Markov model for calibration to compute optimal transition rules and to predict future land use change. In validation process, the model was validated using Kappa index statistics which resulted in overall accuracy more than 85 %. Finally, based on transition rules and transition area matrix produced from calibration process, the future land use changes of 2020 and 2025 were predicted and mapped. The findings of this research showed reasonably good performance of employed model. The model results demonstrate that the study area is growing very rapidly especially in the recent decade. Furthermore, this rapid urban expansion results in remarkable continuous decrease of agriculture lands.     

Regional flood frequency modeling for a large basin in India

The computation of flood magnitude and its likely occurrence to design different hydraulic structures are major challenges to the research community. The present study has been carried out to identify the homogeneous regions in the Mahanadi basin in Chhattisgarh part (data from 26 gauge/discharge sites) of India using conventional and clustering-based homogeneity tests and then computation and identification of probability-weighted moment and L-moment-based best regional distributions for different regions. Different simple to complex distributions like Extreme Value-I, Generalized Extreme Value, Logistic, Generalized Logistic, Generalized Pareto, Normal and Log-normal, Wakeby-4, and Wakeby-5 was used in the analysis through standardizing procedure to compute regional distributions. The best-fit distribution selected by simulating several series and compute L-kurtosis along with the L-moment ratio diagram. The homogeneity analysis confirmed that this basin can broadly be divided into two different homogeneous regions with 15 and 11 stations in the first (Region-1) and second (Region-2) regions, respectively. The GEV distribution was found best suited for Region-1 while the Generalized Pareto worked well for Region-2. To make results more convenient for field application, catchment area-based equations were converted in the form of Dicken’s or Ryve’s formulae for these regions to estimate flood quantiles of any return period.

     

流域面源集成管理系统的设计与应用

利用矢量数据结构的地理信息系统(GIS)软件和模拟模型集成开发流域面源污染管理系统.以上海市苏州河流域为例,通过土地利用类型、土壤类型、子流域等图层的叠加,将流域空间分割为一系列不规则的矢量多边形,并将这些矢量多边形作为非点源模拟的空间单元;利用组件式地理信息系统平台MapX、Surfer等,设计和开发了无缝集成的苏州河面源管理信息系统的结构、功能和数据库组成,并初步建立了可运行的苏州河流域面源管理信息系统.在系统的支持下,可有效地实现流域面源污染负荷估算、面源污染指数评价、单位面源负荷的等值线绘制以及面源污染的总量控制等功能.所开发的系统,既是面源污染专业软件开发的有益尝试,同时也是流域数字化环境管理的有益探索.     

基于DEM与实测河网的流域编码方法

借助于GIS技术对大流域进行划分与编码.修正实测河道上部分栅格单元的高程,以避免大面积“伪洼地”的出现,从修正后的栅格型数字高程模型(DEM)提取出与实测河网比较一致的模拟河网.提取出模拟河网后,再进行河网的编码,以及流域的划分与编码.提出了一种对Pfafstetter规则的改进方法,并且按照改进后的Pfafstetter规则来对河网与流域进行编码.所有编码工作是由本次研究中专门编制的程序来自动完成.将提出的方法应用于黄河流域,将整个黄河流域划分为8 255个子流域并赋予了Pfafstetter编码.     

Calibrating nonparametric cellular automata with a generalized additive model to simulate dynamic urban growth

Understanding factors that drive urban growth is essential to cellular automata (CA) based urban modeling. Multicollinearity among correlated factors may cause negative effects when building CA transition rules, leading to a decrease in simulation accuracy. We use a nonparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate these relationships through flexible smooth functions to capture the dynamics of urban growth. A GAM-based CA (termed GAM-CA) model was then developed to simulate the rapid urban growth in Shanghai, China from 2000 to 2015. GAM highlights the significance of each candidate factor driving urban growth during the past 15 years. Compared to logistic regression, the GAM-CA transition rules fitted the observed data better and yielded improved overall accuracy and hence more realistic urban growth patterns. The new CA model has great potential for capturing key driving factors to simulate dynamic urban growth, and can predict future scenarios under various spatial constraints and conditions.     

基于元胞自动机模型的堆积体动力学参数研究

堆积体是一种典型的二元介质,由软弱的基质土与坚硬的碎、块石构成。利用元胞自动机模型对随机离散单元进行演化,模拟堆积体的分布结构、“聚团”特征;利用弹性应力波传播原理计算波的等效速度,研究了堆积体内介质分布、软硬程度对动力学参数的影响规律。研究发现,堆积体内的波速由基质与充填物共同决定,基质材料越弱,地震波传播速度越慢,二者呈对数变化;堆积体内碎石含量越高,则波速越快,波速与充填碎石块含量呈对数关系增长,而振幅系数与碎石含量关系不大,主要取决于碎块石的分布结构;由于堆积体介质密度不均,导致堆积体内波传播速度与入射波频率密切相关,高频波速度快、低频波速度慢,横波速度与入射波频率成指数递增关系。研究表明,采用基于元胞自动机模型研究动变形参数,可以更好地反映出堆积体的波动力学性能,是一种获得复杂介质动参数的重要方法,可以弥补室内及现场试验的不足。     

Geomorphic positioning and depositional dynamics of river systems in Lower Siwalik basin,Kumaun Himalaya

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of river systems in the Lower Siwalik sequence has enabled characterization of channel patterns, river metamorphosis and resulting sandstone body evolution in time and space. Processes related six lithofacies repeat to generate 8–10 m thick multistoried sandstone complexes deposited in perennial channel belts. Based on lateral mapping of the sandstone bodies, the surfaces of genetic significance ranging from 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th order, suggest presence of meandering, braided and anastomosing river patterns that were responsible for the Lower Siwalik sedimentation. Variation in local base-level in response to allogenic factors including climate and tectonics forced river systems to acquire different patterns. Eustasy seems to control large-scale basin level changes. Quantitatively reconstructed morphological parameters and their comparison with modern and ancient analogues, supported by other independent evidences such as stratigraphical position of sandstone bodies in vertically measured columns and mineralogical characteristics of channel sandstones, enabled to decipher the geomorphic positioning of the Lower Siwalik channels in distal parts of megafan and interfluve areas within the foreland basin setting.     

Development of an urban landslide cellular automata model: a case study of North Vancouver, Canada

Many GIS-based landslide models require detailed datasets that are ideally collected from field measurements, which can incur high costs for carrying out surveys. Even when the data is on hand, implementing physics-based slope stability techniques can be difficult. Common research practice uses differential equations to characterize the dynamic flow of a landslide, but it is often laborious without making substantial simplifications. A possible solution is to implement a cellular automata modeling approach, which represents both spatial and temporal components, to simulate the dynamics of the landslide propagation process. In this study, a simplified cellular automata model is developed for the effective prediction of landslide runouts, where the data requirement is a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Parameters, such as slope and slope curvature features, are derived from the DEM and coupled with logistic regression. The developed model is implemented on the Patrick and Dawson-Chu Slide in North Vancouver, Canada. The results from this study site were favorable, given almost 90% agreement between simulated landslides and data obtained for real landslides. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed on the initiation sites to test the model logic and outputs of the landslide flow.     

水质模型研究进展与流域管理模型WARMF评述

分析了以地表水、地下水与非点源为代表的水质模型研究发展历程,揭示了水质模型由经验-机理、单要素(或无机、大量、无毒要素)-多要素(或有机、微量、有毒要素)、单介质-多介质、稳态-动态、点源-非点源-两者统一研究、饱水带-包气带-二者统一研究、小规模分散(河流、湖泊、地下水等)-大规模集成(整个流域)、理论研究-实际应用研究的发展特点。认为当前水质模型正处于由水质研究向以水质为中心的流域管理研究转变的关键时期,给出了一个流域管理新模型WARMF的介绍与特点分析。     

Land use change modeling and the effect of compact city paradigms: integration of GIS-based cellular automata and weights-of-evidence techniques

In recent decades, attaining urban sustainability is the primary goal for urban planners and decision makers. Among various aspects of urban sustainability, environmental protection such as agricultural and forest conservations is very important in tropical countries like Malaysia. In this regard, compact urban development due to high density, rural development containment is known as the most sustainable urban forms. This paper attempts to propose an integrated modeling approach to predict the future land use changes by considering city compactness paradigms. First, the cellular automata (CA) were applied for calculating land use conversion. Next, weights-of-evidence (WoE) which is based on Bayes theory was utilized to calibrate CA model and to support the transitional rule assessment. Several urban-related parameters as well as compact city indicators were utilized to estimate the future land use maps. The results showed how compact development parameters and site characteristics can be combined using the WoE model to predict the probability of land use changes. The modeling approach supports the essential logic of probabilistic methods and indicates that spatial autocorrelation of various land use types and accessibility is the main drivers of urban land use changes.     

Evaluation of the SWAT model for water balance study of a mountainous snowfed river basin of Nepal

In this study, a semi-distributed hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been employed for the Karnali River basin, Nepal to test its applicability for hydrological simulation. Further, model was evaluated to carry out the water balance study of the basin and to determine the snowmelt contribution in the river flow. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was also used to compare the snowmelt runoff simulated from the SWAT model. The statistical results show that performance of the SWAT model in the Karnali River basin is quite good (p-factor = 0.88 and 0.88, for daily calibration and validation, respectively; r-factor = 0.76 and 0.71, for daily calibration and validation, respectively). Baseflow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF) was found most sensitive parameter for the flow simulation. The study revealed that the average annual runoff volume available at the basin outlet is about 47.16 billion cubic metre out of which about 12% of runoff volume is contributed by the snowmelt runoff. About 25% of annual precipitation seems to be lost as evapotranspiration. The results revealed that both the models, SWAT and SRM, can be efficiently applied in the mountainous river basins of Nepal for planning and management of water resources.     

Characterization of natural colloids from a river and spring in a karstic basin

 Colloids are known to transport contaminants over long distances in natural media. Despite this potentially harmful effect, very few studies have been undertaken in subsurface aquifers. This paper presents the first results of a study of natural colloids and particles in a karstic aquifer. The site was chosen for its coverage by clay layers and peat which deliver various and numerous particle types in water. The methodological part describes three methods used for size determination and sample fractionation of surface water and spring water. These methods have been adapted for the treatment of multiple samples due to the rapid discharge variation typical of karstic aquifers. The analysis of many particle size distributions (PSD) shows that they can be described by a Pareto law. The variation of the slope of the PSD at the spring is mainly dependent on discharge. This behavior is interpreted as a washing of the karstic drains during the first phase of high flow events. Fractionation of the samples allowed application of various characterization techniques to particle size classes. X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed that most of the mineral particles originated from Quaternary deposits and limestones. However the use of scanning electron micrsocopy with energy-dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS) detailed the composition of individual particles and revealed particles not found by XRD. These techniques also showed the high complexity of the natural particles and the important place of coprecipitation in their formation. Consequences on the fluxes of particulate matter and its potential role as a carrier of contaminants are discussed. Received: 28 October 1996 · Accepted: 7 July 1997     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of heavy metals in sediments of the river estuarine system: Mahanadi basin (India)

Dynamics of heavy metals in the surface sediments of Mahanadi river estuarine system were studied for three different seasons. This study demonstrates that the relative abundance of these metals follows in the order of Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni ≥ Co > Cu > Cd. The spatial pattern of heavy metals supported by enrichment ratio data, suggests their anthropogenic sources possibly from various industrial wastes and municipal wastes as well as agricultural runoff. The metal concentrations in estuarine sediments are relatively higher than in the river due to adsorption/accumulation of metals on sediments during saline mixing, while there is a decreasing trend of heavy metal concentrations towards the marine side. The temporal variations for metals, such as Fe, Mn, Zn, Ni and Pb exhibit higher values during monsoon season, which are related to agricultural runoff. Higher elemental concentrations are observed during pre-monsoon season for these above metals (except Ni) at the polluted stations and for metals, such as Cr, Co and Cd at all sites, which demonstrate the intensity of anthropogenic contribution. R-mode factor analysis reveals that “Fe–Mn oxy hydroxide”, “organic matter”, “CaCO₃”, and “textural variables” factors are the major controlling geochemical factors for the enrichment of heavy metals in river estuarine sediment and their seasonal variations, though their intensities were different for different seasons. The relationships among the stations are highlighted by cluster analysis, represented in dendrograms to categorize different contributing sites for the enrichment of heavy metals in the river estuarine system.     

物理细胞自动机与岩石弹-脆-塑性性质的细观机制研究

基于能量守恒定律和岩石的基本力学性质,进一步发展了由作者提出的一种用于模拟岩石非线性破坏演化的新方法-物理细胞自动机（PCA）模型。该模型通过岩石内部（或细观）基元（或细胞）间简单的随机相互作用的综合结果来反映岩石系统整体的稳定宏观力学现象。利用PCA模型,研究了形成不同岩石本构关系的本质影响因素,揭示了岩石弹-脆-塑性性质的细观机制,为进一步认知岩石等非均质材料的力学性质提供了一种新的理论方法。同时,其研究思路和结论也可为微观和细观力学的数值模拟方法及新型复合材料的设计提供重要的借鉴。     

Chemical weathering and gully erosion causing land degradation in a complex river basin of Eastern India: an integrated field,analytical and artificial intelligence approach

Hot and humid subtropical plateau regions are susceptible to land degradation in the form of weathering and gully erosion. Here, we investigate chemical weathering, gully erosion and cohesiveness through field-based measurements with a view to understand the controlling factors of potential land degradation, in complex river basin of the Chotanagpur plateau region in Eastern India. The layers of controlling factors of gully erosion were developed and prioritized considering boosted regression tree (BRT), alternative decision tree (ADT), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and random forest (RF) algorithms in the R software, and the results of these methods were also validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The spectroscopic analysis was carried out of collected soil samples to measure the degree of chemical weathering and cohesiveness. Furthermore, the climatic elements like temperature and rainfall were also considered for estimating the chemical weathering. The results of the gully erosion models (i.e., BRT, ADT, PSO and RF) show remarkable accuracy with ROC values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.91 and 0.84, respectively. An advanced decision tree model was integrated with the results of degree of chemical weathering and cohesiveness in geographical information system platform. The land degradation map developed from this approach shows that 10.53% of the study area is highly affected, whereas 17.36% area is moderately affected and the rest of the 73.85% area is less affected by land degradation. Our results provide essential information for policy makers in adopting measures for minimizing and controlling the land degradation. Our novel approach is significant to assess land degradation to a large scale.

     

Analysis of extreme precipitation and its variability under climate change in a river basin

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the variation of extreme precipitation on a catchment under climate change. Extreme value analysis using generalized extreme value distribution was used to...     

Major ion chemistry of groundwater in a river basin: a study from India

Groundwater is the prime source in the area of Varaha River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, India. Groundwater samples collected during pre- and post-monsoon were analyzed for major ion chemistry to understand the operating mechanism of geochemical processes for variation of groundwater quality. Low ionic concentration is observed in the groundwater occurring at topographic-highs and towards the river compared to the rest of the area. This is caused by the influence of recharge water. Geochemistry of groundwater is observed to be mainly controlled by the rock-weathering, mineral dissolution, leaching, ion exchange and evaporation, and is subsequently modified by the anthropogenic and marine activities. Contribution of residual soluble salts below the depth of 5 m from the ground surface is high, while it is low beyond the depth of 5 m. Anthropogenic activities cause an accumulation of excess residual soluble salts in the former depth and the content of this soluble matter is reduced by the clay products beyond the latter depth. Seasonal ionic concentration of groundwater is greatly influenced by the recharge process with reference to topographical features, lithological characteristics and anthropogenic activities. Groundwater quality is classified as mixed and non-carbonate alkali groups due to a combined action of geogenic/anthropogenic and marine sources, respectively. The groundwater quality is above the adequacy level for both drinking and irrigation, and appropriate management measures are recommended for sustainable development.