Climate-induced fluvial dynamics in tropical Africa around the last glacial maximum?

The Greenland and East and West Antarctic ice sheets are assessed as being the source of ice that produced an Eemian sea level 6 m higher than present sea level. The most probable source is total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by partial collapse of the adjacent sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in direct contact with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This conclusion is reached by applying a simple formula relating the “floating fraction” of ice along flowlines to ice height above the bed. Increasing the floating fraction lowered ice elevations enough to contribute up to 4.7 m to global sea level. Adding 3.3 m resulting from total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accounts for the higher Eemian sea level. Partial gravitational collapse that produced the present ice drainage system of Amery Ice Shelf contributes 2.3 m to global sea level. These results cast doubt on the presumed stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but destabilizing mechanisms remain largely unknown. Possibilities include glacial surges and marine instabilities at the respective head and foot of ice streams.     

国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评

海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。     

The sediment infill of subglacial meltwater channels on the West Antarctic continental shelf

Subglacial meltwater plays a significant yet poorly understood role in the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets. Here we present new swath bathymetry from the western Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, showing meltwater channels eroded into acoustic basement. Their morphological characteristics and size are consistent with incision by subglacial meltwater. To understand how and when these channels formed we have investigated the infill of three channels. Diamictons deposited beneath or proximal to an expanded grounded West Antarctic Ice Sheet are present in two of the channels and these are overlain by glaciomarine sediments deposited after deglaciation. The sediment core from the third channel recovered a turbidite sequence also deposited after the last deglaciation. The presence of deformation till at one core site and the absence of typical meltwater deposits (e.g., sorted sands and gravels) in all three cores suggest that channel incision pre-dates overriding by fast flowing grounded ice during the last glacial period. Given the overall scale of the channels and their incision into bedrock, it is likely that the channels formed over multiple glaciations, possibly since the Miocene, and have been reoccupied on several occasions. This also implies that the channels have survived numerous advances and retreats of grounded ice.     

雷达高度计探测东南极地区冰面变化

利用美国SeaSat和GeoSat星载高度计,采用再跟踪算法完成雷达高度计数据处理,对大气影响、固体地球潮汛、坡度和水汽进行误差纠正,提取了南极东南部研究区两个年代的从海岸到72°S的数条截面多条冰面剖面.结果表明:Lambert冰川/Amery冰架在1978-1986年间,Lambert冰川以西冰面平均高度上升0.92m,Lambert冰川以东冰面平均高度上升0.47m.     

Provenance of LGM glacial till (sand fraction) across the Ross embayment,Antarctica

The provenance of Late Quaternary Ross Embayment till was investigated by comparing the coarse sand composition of East and West Antarctic source area tills with till samples from across the Ross Sea. The West Antarctic samples from beneath the Whillans (B) and Kamb (C) ice streams are petrologically distinct from samples of lateral moraines flanking several East Antarctic outlet glaciers. The characteristic assemblage of four West Antarctic samples includes felsic intrusive and detrital sedimentary lithic fragments, plagioclase and abundant quartz. In contrast, most of the ten East Antarctic till samples contains abundant mafic intrusive and detrital sedimentary lithic fragments as well as less abundant quartz. The distinctive composition of these source areas can be linked to 33 samples from 20 cores of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) age till distributed across the Ross Sea. Western Ross Sea till samples exhibit mineralogic and lithological similarities to East Antarctic till samples, although these western Ross Sea tills contain higher percentages of felsic intrusive and extrusive lithic fragments. Eastern Ross Sea till samples are compositionally similar to West Antarctic till, particularly in their abundance of quartz and dearth of mafic and extrusive lithic components. Central Ross Sea till exhibits compositional similarities to both East and West Antarctic source terranes including a mafic lithic component, and marks the confluence of ice draining from East and West Antarctica during the LGM, thus West Antarctic-derived ice streams did not advance into the western Ross Sea. This indicates that even if pre-LGM equivalents of the present Siple Coast ice streams existed, they did not simply expand allowing West Antarctic-derived ice to dominate the LGM Ross Ice Sheet.     

A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Marine ice sheets are grounded on land which was below sea level before it became depressed under the ice-sheet load. They are inherently unstable and, because of bedrock topography after depression, the collapse of a marine ice sheet may be very rapid. In this paper equations are derived that can be used to make a quantitative estimate of the maximum size of a marine ice sheet and of when and how rapidly retreat would take place under prescribed conditions. Ice-sheet growth is favored by falling sea level and uplift of the seabed. In most cases the buttressing effect of a partially grounded ice shelf is a prerequisite for maximum growth out to the edge of the continental shelf. Collapse is triggered most easily by eustatic rise in sea level, but it is possible that the ice sheet may self-destruct by depressing the edge of the continental shelf so that sea depth is increased at the equilibrium grounding line.Application of the equations to a hypothetical “Ross Ice Sheet” that 18,000 yr ago may have covered the present-day Ross Ice Shelf indicates that, if the ice sheet existed, it probably extended to a line of sills parallel to the edge of the Ross Sea continental shelf. By allowing world sea level to rise from its late-Wisconsin minimum it was possible to calculate retreat rates for individual ice streams that drained the “Ross Ice Sheet.” For all the models tested, retreat began soon after sea level began to rise (～15,000 yr B.P.). The first 100 km of retreat took between 1500 and 2500 yr but then retreat rates rapidly accelerated to between 0.5 and 25 km yr^?1, depending on whether an ice shelf was present or not, with corresponding ice velocities across the grounding line of 4 to 70 km yr^?1. All models indicate that most of the present-day Ross Ice Shelf was free of grounded ice by about 7000 yr B.P. As the ice streams retreated floating ice shelves may have formed between promontories of slowly collapsing stagnant ice left behind by the rapidly retreating ice streams. If ice shelves did not form during retreat then the analysis indicates that most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would have collapsed by 9000 yr B.P. Thus, the present-day Ross Ice Shelf (and probably the Ronne Ice Shelf) serves to stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would collapse very rapidly if the ice shelves were removed. This provides support for the suggestion that the 6-m sea-level high during the Sangamon Interglacial was caused by collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after climatic warming had sufficiently weakened the ice shelves. Since the West Antarctic Ice Sheet still exists it seems likely that ice shelves did form during Holocene retreat. Their effect was to slow and, finally, to halt retreat. The models that best fit available data require a rather low shear stress between the ice shelf and its sides, and this implies that rapid shear in this region encouraged the formation of a band of ice with a preferred crystal fabric, as appears to be happening today in the floating portions of fast bounded glaciers.Rebound of the seabed after the ice sheet had retreated to an equilibrium position would allow the ice sheet to advance once more. This may be taking place today since analysis of data from the Ross Ice Shelf indicates that the southeast corner is probably growing thicker with time, and if this persists then large areas of ice shelf must become grounded. This would restrict drainage from West Antarctic ice streams which would tend to thicken and advance their grounding lines into the ice shelf.     

Volume of Antarctic Ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, and its impact on global sea level change

The volume of Antarctic ice at the Last Glacial Maximum is a key factor for calculating the past contribution of melting ice sheets to Late Pleistocene global sea level change. At present, there are large uncertainties in our knowledge of the extent and thickness of the formerly expanded Antarctic ice sheets, and in the timing of their release as meltwater into the world’s oceans. This paper reviews the four main approaches to determining former Antarctic ice volume, namely glacial geology, glacio-isostatic studies, glaciological modelling, and ice core analysis and attempts to reconcile these to give a ‘best estimate’ for ice volume. In the Ross Sea there was a major expansion of grounded ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, accounting for 2.3–3.2 m of global sea level. At some time in the Weddell Sea a large grounded ice sheet corresponding to c. 2.7 m of global sea level extended to the shelf break. However, this ice expansion has not yet been confidently dated and may not relate to the Last Glacial Maximum. Around East Antarctica there was thickening and advance offshore of ice in coastal regions. Ice core evidence suggests that the interior of East Antarctica was either close to its present elevation or thinner during the last glacial so the effect of East Antarctica on sea level depends on the net balance between marginal thickening and interior thinning. Suggested East Antarctic contributions vary from a 3–5.5 m lowering to a 0.64 m rise in global sea level. The Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet thickened and extended offshore at the Last Glacial Maximum, with a sea level equivalent contribution of c. 1.7 m. Thus, the Antarctic ice sheets accounted for between 6.1 and 13.1 m of global sea level fall at the Last Glacial Maximum. This is substantially less than has been suggested by most previous studies but the maximum figure matches well with one modelling estimate. The timing of Antarctic deglaciation is not well known. In the Ross Sea, terrestrial evidence suggests deglaciation may have begun at c. 13,000 yr BP¹ but that grounded ice persisted until c. 6,500 yr BP. Marine evidence suggests the western Ross Sea was deglaciated by c. 11,500 yr BP. Deglaciation of the Weddell Sea is poorly constrained. Grounded ice in the northern Antarctic Peninsula had retreated by c. 13,000 yr BP, and further south deglaciation occurred sometime prior to c. 6,000 yr BP. Many parts of coastal East Antarctica apparently escaped glaciation at the LGM, but in those areas that were ice-covered deglaciation was underway by 10,000 yr BP. With existing data, the timing of deglaciation shows no firm relation to northern hemisphere-driven sea level rise. This is probably due partly to lack of Antarctic dating evidence but also to the combined influence of several forcing mechanisms acting during deglaciation.     

Holocene glacial history of Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands

A history of Holocene glaciation in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic affords insight into questions concerning present and future ice-sheet and mountain-glacier behavior and global climate and sea-level change. Existing records permit broad correlation of Holocene ice fluctuations within the region. In several areas, ice extent was less than at present in mid-Holocene time. An important exception to this is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which has undergone continued recession throughout the Holocene, probably in response to internal dynamics. The first Neoglacial ice advances occurred at 5.0 ka, although some sites (e.g., western Ross Sea) lack firm evidence for glacial expansion at that time. Glaciers in all areas underwent renewed growth in the past millennium, and most have subsequently undergone recession in the past 50 years, ranging from near-catastrophic in parts of the Antarctic Peninsula to minor in the western Ross Sea region and sections of East Antarctica. This magnitude difference likely reflects the much greater warming that is taking place in the Antarctic Peninsula region today as compared to East Antarctica.     

Bedform signature of a West Antarctic palaeo-ice stream reveals a multi-temporal record of flow and substrate control

The presence of a complex bedform arrangement on the sea floor of the continental shelf in the western Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, indicates a multi-temporal record of flow related to the activity of one or more ice streams in the past. Mapping and division of the bedforms into distinct landform assemblages reveals their time-transgressive history, which implies that bedforms can neither be considered part of a single downflow continuum nor a direct proxy for palaeo-ice velocity, as suggested previously. A main control on the bedform imprint is the geology of the shelf, which is divided broadly between rough bedrock on the inner shelf, and smooth, dipping sedimentary strata on the middle to outer shelf. Inner shelf bedform variability is well preserved, revealing information about local, complex basal ice conditions, meltwater flow, and ice dynamics over time. These details, which are not apparent at the scale of regional morphological studies, indicate that past ice streams flowed across the entire shelf at times, and often had onset zones that lay within the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet today. In contrast, highly elongated subglacial bedforms on sedimentary strata of the middle to outer shelf represent a timeslice snapshot of the last activity of ice stream flow, and may be a truer representation of fast palaeo-ice flow in these locations. A revised model for ice streams on the shelf captures complicated multi-temporal bedform patterns associated with an Antarctic palaeo-ice stream for the first time, and confirms a strong substrate control on a major ice stream system that drained the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Late Quaternary.     

A simple holistic hypothesis for the self-destruction of ice sheets

Ice sheets are the only components of Earth’s climate system that can self-destruct. This paper presents the quantitative force balance for bottom-up modeling of ice sheets, as first presented qualitatively in this journal as a way to quantify ice-bed uncoupling leading to self-destruction of ice sheets (Hughes, 2009a). Rapid changes in sea level and climate can result if a large ice-sheet self-destructs quickly, as did the former Laurentide Ice Sheet of North America between 8100 and 7900 BP, thereby terminating the last cycle of Quaternary glaciation. Ice streams discharge up to 90 percent of ice from past and present ice sheets. A hypothesis is presented in which self-destruction of an ice sheet begins when ubiquitous ice-bed decoupling, quantified as a floating fraction of ice, proceeds along ice streams. This causes ice streams to surge and reduce thickness by some 90 percent, and height above sea level by up to 99 percent for floating ice, so the ice sheet undergoes gravitational collapse. Ice collapsing over marine embayments becomes floating ice shelves that may then disintegrate rapidly. This floods the world ocean with icebergs that reduce the ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange, thereby triggering climate change. Calving bays migrate up low stagnating ice streams and carve out the accumulation zone of the collapsed ice sheet, which prevents its recovery, decreases Earth’s albedo, and terminates the glaciation cycle. This sequence of events may coincide with a proposed life cycle of ice streams that drain the ice sheet. A first-order treatment of these life cycles is presented that depends on the longitudinal force balance along the flowbands of ice streams and gives a first approximation to ice-bed uncoupling at snapshots during gravitational collapse into ice shelves that disintegrate, thereby removing the ice sheet. The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is assessed using this bottom-up approach.     

利用GPS提取南极Amery冰架海潮信号

潮汐运动是冰架短期垂直运动的来源, 对冰架影响十分显著. 选取2003/2004年度南极夏季期间中国在Amery冰架上连续5 d的GPS数据, 利用GAMIT/GLOBK进行数据处理, 获取了由海潮引起的冰架垂向运动时间序列;垂直方向精度优于0.18 m, 并且和中国南极中山验潮站的潮汐变化曲线进行了对比, 获得了一致的结论. 利用GPS测量海潮可为精化南极地区的海潮模型提供可靠的现场数据, 对南极冰盖物质平衡研究及冰海交互动力学模型研究有着重要的作用.     

基于CryoSat-2雷达高度计数据的南极内陆冰盖高程变化与物质平衡

南极冰盖对海平面影响巨大,高程变化测量是南极物质平衡监测的重要手段。采用欧空局CryoSat-2雷达高度计数据,通过提取卫星升降轨的地面交叉点,监测了南极内陆冰盖的高程变化（物质平衡）。结果表明,后向散射能量对Ku波段的CryoSat-2雷达高度计的高程数据具有一定的影响,经后向散射能量校正后,时间序列上的高程变化变得平缓,高程变化与已有的降雪数据相比,更加符合实际情况。2010年11月至2017年11月南极内陆冰盖高程变化趋势为（-1.1±0.2）cm·a^-1。西南极的Kamb冰流高程变化率为（38.7±1.1）cm·a^-1,Moeller冰流高程变化率为（-10.3±1.2）cm·a^-1,部分Thwaites冰川区域高程变化率为（-13.4±1.8）cm·a^-1,东南极的Wilkes Land出现高下降区,最高达-20 cm·a^-1。Dronning Maud Land虽然出现变化异常的点,但整体并没有显著的高程变化。南极内陆冰盖质量变化为（-10.6±6.2）Gt·a^-1,整体上南极内陆冰盖质量变化平缓,部分区域变化较大,Kamb冰流达到（17.9±0.5）Gt·a^-1,Moeller冰流达到（-3.4±0.4）Gt·a^-1,部分Thwaites冰川区达到（-3.7±0.5）Gt·a^-1。     

Nature of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the Pliocene: Geological evidence and modelling results compared

In this paper, we examine the nature of the Pliocene Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet by comparing the terrestrial and marine geological records of the Antarctic Peninsula and surrounding sea floor with estimated net snow accumulation in the region derived from numerical palaeoclimate model experiments. Pliocene geological data and our new modelling results are consistent and mutually supportive in suggesting that an ice sheet was present even during the warmest episodes of the Pliocene. The combined results suggest that the ice sheet in the Antarctic Peninsula is more robust to globally warmer conditions than is generally assumed, at least up to the climatic limits examined in our study.     

Evidence of a full West Antarctic Ice Sheet back to the early Oligocene: insight from double dating of detrital apatites in Ross Sea sediments.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most unstable component of the Antarctic cryosphere. Its fluctuations are well documented since the Pliocene, but its behaviour over the last 35 Ma is more controversial, particularly during periods of past high global pCO₂ values similar to those predicted in future global climate scenarios. Here, we present new U–Pb dating of detrital apatite grains (previously dated by the fission‐track method) from Cape Roberts Project Oligocene to Pliocene marine sediments in the Ross Sea. Two past ice‐flow patterns were identified: one formed by outlet glaciers sourcing short‐travelled apatites and one, northerly directed, bringing far‐travelled apatite grains. The latter provides the first robust physical evidence for the presence and repeated expansion of an Oligocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

南极冰盖与中国风尘堆积

通过南极冰盖消长和风尘堆积物的气候事件对比,说明在4.3—2.5 Ma B.P,间南极冰盖增长和北极冰盖发展,中国第三纪风尘红壤土沉积可能是中国东部季风气候雏形形成的反映。2.6Ma以来,随着北极冰盖的迅速扩展,中国内陆进一步干旱化并促成黄土堆积。南极极锋带北移与黄土区极寒等事件的发生具有同步性,据此建立极寒事件的序列,可能反映大气环流强度变化情况。南极东方站冰岩芯气候曲线说明,黄土高原晚更新世以来的干冷期可能形成于0.115Ma B.P.。我国东部地区转暖大致发生在13000aB.P.,此后不久可能出现欧洲新仙女木寒冷事件。此外,大约在40000aB.P.可能有一寒冷事件。     

1961—2017年南极冰盖近地面风时空变化研究

基于19个人工气象站1961—2017年风速风向实测数据对南极冰盖近地面风速时空变化和风向进行了分析。结果表明：近50年来,南极冰盖近地面各季节平均风速和年平均风速变化的空间模式基本一致。东南极0°~120° E沿海地区风速呈显著上升趋势;南极半岛气象站风速变化趋势各异,且变化速率相差甚大,但从区域平均结果来看,南极半岛年和季节平均风速均呈上升趋势。这与近几十来局地气温、气压变化及南半球环状模趋向于正位相发展有关。东南极受下降风和绕极东风影响,大部分地区盛行偏南风或偏东风,且频率较高风向稳定;而受天气活动影响,南极半岛风向复杂,主风向频率低,风向多变。     

Predicted relative sea-level changes (18,000 years B.P. to present) caused by late-glacial retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Predictions of global changes in relative sea level caused by retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from its 18,000 yr B.P. maximum to its present size are calculated numerically. When combined with the global predictions of relative sea-level change resulting from retreat of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, the results may be compared directly to observations of sea-level change on the Antarctic continent as well as at distant localities. The comparison of predictions to the few observations of sea-level change on Antarctica supports the view that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was larger 18,000 years ago than at present. The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the total eustatic sea-level rise is assumed to be 25 m (25% of the assumed total eustatic rise). If as little as 0.7 m of this 25-m rise occurred between 5000 yr B.P. and the present, few mid-oceanic islands would emerge. If the Antarctic Ice Sheet attained its present dimensions by 6000 yr B.P., however, and if the volume of the ocean has remained constant for the past 5000 years, numerous islands throughout the Southern Hemisphere would emerge. It is suggested that a thorough study of Pacific islands, believed by some to have slightly emerged shorelines of Holocene age, would yield useful information about ocean volume changes during the past 5000 years, and hence on the glacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Monitoring changes of ice streams using time series of satellite-altimetry-based digital terrain models

The Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a major role in the global system, and the large ice streams discharging into the circumpolar sea represent its gateways to the world’s oceans. Satellite radar altimeter data provide an opportunity for mapping surface elevation at kilometerresolution with meteraccuracy. Geostaristical methods have been developed for the analysis of these data. Applications to Seasat data and data from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission indicate that the grounding line of Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, the largest ice stream in East Antarctica, has advanced 10–12 km between 1978 and 1987–89. The objectives of this paper are to explore possibilities and limitations of satellite-altimetry-based mapping to capture changes for shorter time windows and for smaller areas, and to investigate some methodological aspects of the data analysis. We establish that one season of radar altimeter data is sufficient for constructing a map. This allows study of interannual variation and is the key for a limeseries analysis approach to study changes in ice streams. Maps of the lower Lambert Glacier and the entire Amery Ice Shelf are presented for austral winters 1978, 1987, 1988, and 1989. As a first step toward understanding the dynamics of the ice-stream/iceshelf system, elevation changes are calculated for grounded ice, the grounding zone, and floating ice. In the absence of (sufficient) surface gravity control for the Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf area, altimetry-based maps may facilitate improvement of geoid models as they provide constraints on the terrain correction in the inverse gravimetric problem.     

Monitoring Changes of Ice Streams Using Time Series of Satellite-Altimetry-Based Digital Terrain Models

The Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a major role in the global system, and the large ice streams discharging into the circumpolar sea represent its gateways to the world's oceans. Satellite radar altimeter data provide an opportunity for mapping surface elevation at kilometer-resolution with meter-accuracy. Geostatistical methods have been developed for the analysis of these data. Applications to Seasat data and data from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission indicate that the grounding line of Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, the largest ice stream in East Antarctica, has advanced 10–12 km between 1978 and 1987–89. The objectives of this paper are to explore possibilities and limitations of satellite-altimetry-based mapping to capture changes for shorter time windows and for smaller areas, and to investigate some methodological aspects of the data analysis. We establish that one season of radar altimeter data is sufficient for constructing a map. This allows study of interannual variation and is the key for a time-series analysis approach to study changes in ice streams. Maps of the lower Lambert Glacier and the entire Amery Ice Shelf are presented for austral winters 1978, 1987, 1988, and 1989. As a first step toward understanding the dynamics of the ice-stream/ice-shelf system, elevation changes are calculated for grounded ice, the grounding zone, and floating ice. In the absence of (sufficient) surface gravity control for the Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf area, altimetry-based maps may facilitate improvement of geoid models as they provide constraints on the terrain correction in the inverse gravimetric problem.     

最近十多年来冰冻圈加速萎缩——IPCC第六次评估报告之冰冻圈变化解读

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告第一工作组报告《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》。该报告基于最新的观测和模拟研究,评估了冰冻圈变化的现状,并采用CMIP6模式对未来变化进行了预估。报告明确指出,近十多年来冰冻圈呈现加速萎缩状态：北极海冰面积显著减小、厚度减薄、冰量迅速减少;格陵兰冰盖、南极冰盖和全球山地冰川物质亏损加剧;多年冻土温度升高、活动层增厚,海底多年冻土范围减少;北半球积雪范围也在明显变小,但积雪量有较大空间差异。冰冻圈的快速萎缩加速海平面的上升。未来人类活动对冰冻圈萎缩的影响将愈加显著,从而导致北极海冰面积继续减少乃至消失,冰盖和冰川物质将持续亏损,多年冻土和积雪的范围继续缩减。报告也提出,目前冰冻圈研究仍存在观测资料稀缺、模型对各影响因素的敏感性参数和过程描述亟需提升、对吸光性杂质的变化机制认知不足等问题,从而影响了对冰冻圈变化预估的准确性,未来需要重点关注。