The effect of a surface data assimilation technique and the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation on the simulation of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a surface data assimilation (SDA) technique, together with the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), on the simulation of a monsoon depression that formed over India during the field phase of the 1999 Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The SDA uses the analyzed surface data to continuously assimilate the surface layer temperature as well as the water vapor mixing ratio in the mesoscale model. The depression for the greater part of this study was offshore and since successful application of the SDA would require surface information, a method of estimating surface temperature and surface humidity using NOAA-TOVS satellites was used. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using a coupled mesoscale model. The first set, called CONTROL, uses the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis for the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the MM5 simulation. The second and the third sets implemented the SDA of temperature and moisture together with the traditional FDDA scheme available in the MM5 model. The second set of MM5 simulation implemented the SDA scheme only over the land areas, and the third set extended the SDA technique over land as well as sea. Both the second and third sets of the MM5 simulation used the NOAA-TOVS and QuikSCAT satellite and conventional upper air and surface meteorological data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the three sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another and with the analysis and the BOBMEX 1999 buoy, ship, and radiosonde observations. The predicted sea level pressure of both the model runs with assimilation resembles the analysis closely and also captures the large-scale structure of the monsoon depression well. The central sea level pressures of the depression for both the model runs with assimilation were 2–4 hPa lower than the CONTROL. The results of both the model runs with assimilation indicate a larger spatial area as well as increased rainfall amounts over the coastal regions after landfall compared with the CONTROL. The impact of FDDA and SDA, the latter over land, resulted in reduced errors of the following: 1.45 K in temperature, 0.39 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, and 14° in wind direction compared with the BOBMEX buoy observation, and 1.43 m s⁻¹ in wind speed, 43° in wind direction, and 0.75% in relative humidity compared with the CONTROL. The impact of SDA over land and sea compared with SDA over land only showed a further marginal reduction of errors: 0.23 K in air temperature (BOBMEX buoy) and 1.33 m s⁻¹ in wind speed simulations.     

Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total foodgrain yield over India

The study focuses on understanding the variations of precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on Kharif and Rabi foodgrain yield over India. Total foodgrain yield over India during Kharif (summer) season is directly affected by variations in the summer monsoon precipitation (June–September). An increase (decrease) in rainfall is generally associated with an increase (decrease) in foodgrain yield. A similar correspondence during the Rabi (winter) foodgrain yield is not evident. The Rabi crop is not directly affected by variations in the post-monsoon precipitation (October–December) alone, also the summer season precipitation influences the Rabi crop through water and soil moisture availability over many parts of India. Though the reduction of rainfall activity during the entire summer monsoon season leads to reduction in crop yields, the occurrence of prolonged rainfall breaks also causes adverse effect on the crop growth resulting in reduced crop yields.     

南极地区SSM/I微波辐射计亮温时间序列分析

简单介绍了微波辐射的原理与应用现状,利用美国国防气象卫星计划DMSP F系列卫星携带的SSM/I辐射计南极地区极投影网格亮温数据进行了分析与处理。结合微波亮温等温线图和南极等高线图分析了南极地区亮温分布的特点。选取8个特征区域,对1992-2000年的日亮温数据进行了时间序列分析,分析了冰盖和冰架的亮温特性、季节和年度变化、短期波动等特征。研究表明南极大陆外围冰架和南极半岛地区的亮温呈增高趋势,而内陆冰盖地区则保持相对稳定;揭示了近年来随全球气候的变暖,南极冰架和南极半岛的融化正在加剧的趋势。     

Impact of INSAT-3D radiance data assimilation using WRF 3DVAR on simulation of Indian summer monsoon and high-resolution rainfall forecast over hilly terrain

Natural Hazards - This study describes the impact of assimilation of INSAT-3D radiances data from both imager and sounder for Indian summer monsoon simulation and rainfall forecast over a hilly...     

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998–2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5-USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June–July–August–September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS.     

Relative role of sea surface temperature and snow on Indian summer monsoon seasonal simulation using a GCM

Indian summer monsoon is a global scale phenomenon controlled by different land, ocean, and atmospheric parameters. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow are two of the major parameters, which may alter the spatial and temporal patterns of circulation and rainfall during Indian summer monsoon. In the current paper, we study the monsoon variability using long integrations (20 years) of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD) Spectral model at T80L18 resolution with observed and climatological SST and snow. Study shows response of IITD GCM in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation relative to the snow and SST as boundary conditions. The model’s response to SST and snow is examined by conducting four types of experiments by varying observed and climatological values of snow and SST. This paper discusses the seasonal total rainfall for country as a whole and 850 and 200 hPa wind for the period of 20 years starting from 1985 to 2004. The model has been integrated in the ensemble mode with five different initial conditions from the last week of April and first week of May. The model is able to capture the climatological patterns of seasonal total rainfall and averaged wind at lower and upper levels. Observed snow in the presence of climatological SST as a boundary condition shows much impact on rainfall and circulation than observed SST in the presence of climatological snow. Model performance is good in simulating the normal and excess monsoon conditions; it shows poor skill in capturing deficit monsoon years.     

Impact of variational assimilation technique on simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Pune,India

Prediction of heavy rainfall events due to severe convective storms in terms of their spatial and temporal scales is a challenging task for an operational forecaster. The present study is about a record-breaking heavy rainfall event observed in Pune (18°31′N, 73°55′E) on October 4, 2010. The day witnessed highest 24-h accumulated precipitation of 181.3 mm and caused flash floods in the city. The WRF model-based real-time weather system, operating daily at Centre for Development of Advanced Computing using PARAM Yuva supercomputer showed the signature of this convective event 4-h before, but failed to capture the actual peak rainfall and its location with reference to the city’s observational network. To investigate further, five numerical experiments were conducted to check the impact of assimilation of observations in the WRF model forecast. First, a control experiment was conducted with initialization using National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Global Forecast System 0.5° data, while surface observational data from NCEP Prepbufr system were assimilated in the second experiment (VARSFC). In the third experiment (VARAMV), NCEP Prepbufr atmospheric motion vectors were assimilated. Fourth experiment (VARPRO) was assimilated with conventional soundings data, and all the available NCEP Prepbufr observations were assimilated in the fifth experiment (VARALL). Model runs were compared with observations from automated weather stations (AWS), synoptic charts of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Comparison of 24-h accumulated rainfall with IMD AWS 24-h gridded data showed that the fifth experiment (VARALL) produced better picture of heavy rainfall, maximum up to 251 mm/day toward the southern side, 31 km away from Pune’s IMD observatory. It was noticed that the effect of soundings observations experiment (VARPRO) caused heavy precipitation of 210 mm toward the southern side 49 km away from Pune. The wind analysis at 850 and 200 hPa indicated that the surface and atmospheric motion vector observations (VARAMV) helped in shifting its peak rainfall toward Pune, IMD observatory by 18 km, though VARALL over-predicted rainfall by 60 mm than the observed.     

Antarctic ice-sheet near-surface snowmelt detection based on the synergy of SSM/I data and QuikSCAT data

Microwave radiometer SSM/I data and scatterometer QuikSCAT data have been widely used for the icesheet near-surface snowmelt detection based on their sensitivity to liquid water present in snow. In order to improve the Antarctic ice-sheet near-surface snowmelt detection accuracy, a new Antarctic icesheet near-surface snowmelt synergistic detection method was proposed based on the principle of complementary advantages of SSM/I data(high reliability) and QuikSCAT data(high sensitivity) by the use of edge detection model to automatically extract the edge information to get the distribution of Antarctic snowmelt onset date, snowmelt duration and snowmelt end date. The verification result shows that the proposed snowmelt synergistic detection method improves the detection accuracy from about 75% to 86% based on AWS(Automatic Weather Stations) Butler Island and Larsen Ice Shelf. The algorithm can also be applied to other regions, which provides methodological support and supplement for the global snowmelt detection.     

Some characteristics of typhoons as revealed by the recent SSM/I microwave radiometry

Tropical cyclones are notorious for their destruction. Because they occur mostly over oceans their structures are revealed only through aerial reconnaissance, radar or through satellites. The recently launched DMSP satellite (F8) has provided polarized microwave Brightness Temperatures, TB's. Using certain algorithms, rainrates and wind speeds were derived for a few typhoons.The 85 GHz TB's available at nearly 15 km intervals, disclosed that low values such as 230 K are registered within 2° of the advancing side of the center. These low TB's moved centerward as the typhoon developed further. They propagated rearwards as the storm weakened.Convective rainrates, defined as those equalling or exceeding 3 mm h^–1, within the core, seem to set trends for the intensification. On the other hand convective rain outside the core had a negative effect on the storm. Similarly convective rainrates within the core of developing storms were significantly different from those of the weakening typhoons while the corresponding stratiform rainrates were not markedly different between intensifying and deintensifying ones. Some typhoons developed strong winds exceeding 30 m s^–1 even as far from the center as 440 km. The derived speeds decreased in accuracy in rain situations.These preliminary results are to be interpreted with caution in view of the recency of the algorithms and the smallness of the sample. However, the hazards scientist would find the SSM/I data to be valuable in forewarning the public and in using these data for purposes such as surge forecasting.     

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.     

Study of total column atmospheric aerosol optical depth,ozone and precipitable water content over Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

The spatial and temporal variations in aerosols and precursor gases over oceanic regions have special importance in the estimation of radiative forcing parameters and thereby in the refinement of general circulation models. Extensive observations of the columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD), total column ozone (TCO) and precipitable water content (PWC) have been carried out using the on-line, multi-band solar radiometers onboard ORV Sagar Kanya (Cruise # SK 147B) over Bay of Bengal during 11th–28th August 1999. Aerosol optical and physical properties (optical depth and angstrom parameter) have been estimated at six wavelengths covering from UV to NIR (380–1020 nm) while TCO and PWC have been determined using the UV band around 300 nm and NIR band around 940 nm, respectively. Added, concurrent meteorological and satellite observations during this field phase of BOBMEX-99 have been utilized to investigate spectral-temporal variations of AOD, TCO and PWC in marine environment. The results indicate lower AODs (around 0.4 at characteristic wavelength of 500 nm) and size distributions with abundance of coarse-mode particles as compared to those aerosols of typical land origin. An interesting result that is found in the present study is the significant reduction in AOD at all wavelengths from initial to later part of observation period due to cloud-scavenging and rain-washout effects as well as signature of coastal aerosol loading. The clear-sky daytime diurnal variation of TCO shows gradual increase during post-sunrise hours, broad maximum during afternoon hours and gradual decrease during pre-sunset hours, which is considered to be due to photochemical reactions. The diurnal variation curve of PWC showed maximum (~ 4 cm) during morning hours and gradual decrease (~ 3.5 cm) towards evening hours, which are found to be greater as compared to typical values over land. Another interesting feature observed is that although the PWC values are very high, there was no proportionate or appreciable enhancement in AOD—a feature that can be utilized to infer composition of aerosols over the study region.     

Impact of recharge water temperature on bioclogging during managed aquifer recharge: a laboratory study

To investigate the effect of recharge water temperature on bioclogging processes and mechanisms during seasonal managed aquifer recharge (MAR), two groups of laboratory percolation experiments were conducted: a winter test and a summer test. The temperatures were controlled at ~5±2 and ~15±3 °C, and the tests involved bacterial inoculums acquired from well water during March 2014 and August 2015, for the winter and summer tests, respectively. The results indicated that the sand columns clogged ~10 times faster in the summer test due to a 10-fold larger bacterial growth rate. The maximum concentrations of total extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) in the winter test were approximately twice those in the summer test, primarily caused by a ~200 μg/g sand increase of both loosely bound EPS (LB-EPS) and tightly bound EPS (TB-EPS). In the first half of the experimental period, the accumulation of bacteria cells and EPS production induced rapid bioclogging in both the winter and summer tests. Afterward, increasing bacterial growth dominated the bioclogging in the summer test, while the accumulation of LB-EPS led to further bioclogging in the winter test. The biological analysis determined that the dominant bacteria in experiments for both seasons were different and the bacterial community diversity was ~50% higher in the winter test than that for summer. The seasonal inoculums could lead to differences in the bacterial community structure and diversity, while recharge water temperature was considered to be a major factor influencing the bacterial growth rate and metabolism behavior during the seasonal bioclogging process.     

基于SSM/I和MODIS数据的天山山区积雪深度时空特征分析

以天山山区为研究区,利用MODIS 8d最大积雪合成数据MOD10A2,分析天山山区积雪的时间变化和空间变化情况以及不同高程带的积雪覆盖率的变化情况;结合SSM/I亮温数据和站点观测数据建立的雪深反演模型并反演研究区的雪深,根据研究区的地势起伏情况,提取特殊地形进行分析其雪深变化情况,进一步分析整个天山山区的积雪深度的时空特征,并对结果进行验证,并且对不同高程带的积雪深度进行分析.研究结果表明:1)天山山区积雪面积分布的趋势表现为自西向东、自北向南减少,总体是呈波动中减少的趋势,到了2012年天山山区年最大积雪面积为37.69×10⁴ km².2)积雪覆盖率与高程呈正比,在高山区可达70%以上.积雪深度分布呈自西向东、由北向南减少,深度最大的是在天山北部的博格达峰、河源峰附近,可以达到80 cm以上,最小在哈密地区的托木尔提峰附近积雪深度仅在10 cm左右.积雪深度与海拔呈正相关,最大雪深出现在4500 m以上的高山区.3)对雪深反演结果的精度评价表明,模型在10~30 cm雪深范围内,反演平均误差为-2.47 cm;在雪深<10 cm或>30 cm的局部地区存在较大偏差.     

中国1996年7月南方暴雨水灾星载微波SSM/I遥感数据分析

以1996年7月我国南方暴雨水灾为例,研究了暴雨水灾时星载微波SSM/I的遥感数据,分析了SSM/I7个通道辐射亮度温度的极化散射和辐射特征,定义了识别降雨的散射指数SI,水灾警戒指数FI,和辐射极化指数PI.用SSM/I的观察数据,讨论了暴雨水灾时这些指数的时间和空间的特征性变化,给出了SSM/I数据对于1996年7月暴雨和水灾的识别,以及全月降雨异常值的空间分布。     

Pacific coral oxygen isotope and the tropospheric temperature gradient over the Asian monsoon region: a tool to reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Having recognized that it is the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient rather than the land–ocean surface temperature gradient that drives the Indian monsoon, a new mechanism of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monsoon teleconnection has been unveiled in which the ENSO influences the Indian monsoon by modifying the TT gradient over the region. Here we show that equatorial Pacific coralline oxygen isotopes reflect TT gradient variability over the Indian monsoon region and are strongly correlated to monsoon precipitation as well as to the length of the rainy season. Using these relationships we have been able to reconstruct past Indian monsoon rainfall variability of the first half of the 20th century in agreement with the instrumental record. Additionally, an older coral oxygen isotope record has been used to reconstruct seasonally resolved summer monsoon rainfall variability of the latter half of the 17th century, indicating that the average annual rainfall during this period was similar to that during the 20th century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of temperature and humidity on similar material and its control measures

Similar-material simulation is generally used in mining engineering. The properties of a similar material vary over time in a certain environment. Due to the time-varying characteristics of the material strength, the model and prototype is dissimilar in dynamics and kinematics, which may affect the reliability of simulation results. The present paper conducts block experiments that investigate the time-varying characteristics of the material strength. The paper further investigates methods of reducing the effects of time-varying characteristics of material strength on simulation results and extends the effective monitoring time of the similar-material model in a natural environment and an environment having constant temperature and humidity. The following results are obtained: (1) The strength and moisture content of the similar material have an exponential relationship, which can be divided into three phases. (2) When a similar-material model is laid in a natural environment, sampling and homemade monitoring equipment can be adopted to control the similar-material model’s strength. Meanwhile, homemade monitoring equipment for the relative humidity of the similar material can be used to monitor a critical change in the similar material’s moisture content. (3) An environment having constant temperature and humidity can extend the effective monitoring time of the similar-material model. (4) High humidity can extend the effective monitoring time while high temperature can decrease the effective monitoring time. In an experiment, the temperature and humidity under the environment of constant temperature and humidity and monitoring time of the model should both be set reasonably. Results provide guidelines for setting the model monitoring period and give evidence for the reliability of simulation results.     

Impact of agriculture on surface water in Ireland Part I. General

The inland freshwaters of Ireland are generally of good quality, a condition at least partly attributable to the relatively small population and industrial base, which are mainly located in coastal areas. The wastes generated by agricultural activities greatly exceed those resulting from domestic and industrial activities. However, the bulk of these agricultural wastes are attributable to grazing livestock and are not likely to lead to pollution of waters. The disposal of manure slurries from intensive rearing operations and silage making are the main agricultural operations which have been implicated in pollution incidents, e.g., fish kills and lake eutrophication. Contamination of surface waters with nitrate and pesticides is not a significant problem at this stage, which reflects the relatively low usage of artificial fertilizers and biocides in Ireland. It is suggested that, in the long term, the main effect of agriculture on Irish surface waters will be eutrophication.     

智利小规模金属采矿（SSM）业对环境影响与运营方式

智利小规模采选业因分布分散且缺乏相应的环保技术与资金投入,其对环境造成了一定的影响。在智利法律系统监管和支持下,该小规模采选业得到有序发展。同时,小规模金属采选业与智利法律规定的大中型矿产开发项目须完成试验性工业开采(即小规模开发实验)存在一定联系。本文通过调查智利中北部第三、第四和第六区小型开采规模的铜、金和银矿山,分析其生产经营过程中对环境的潜在影响因素,剖析小规模金属选场对智利环境带来的影响,总结金属矿小规模采选业的规范性运营方式,找出法律规定与产业运营的内在联系。建议我国企业在智利进行矿产勘探和可行性研究中重视小规模采选试验与规模性勘查工作的合理有序结合。     

3 Ma以来轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化的模拟研究

轨道尺度东亚冬季风变率对认识第四纪东亚环境演化和北半球冰盖演化具有重要的作用。文章利用德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的中等复杂程度地球系统模式(CLIMBER-2)对过去3 Ma气候和环境的模拟结果,探讨了轨道尺度东亚冬季风演化特征及其变化机制。采用两种指数反映东亚冬季风强度,分别指示中纬度西风强度(EAWMU)和东亚北风强度(EAWMV)。CLIMBER-2较好地模拟出了3 Ma以来地球冰期-间冰期旋回特征,以及第四纪以来全球变冷趋势。东亚冬季风在过去3 Ma以来呈现逐渐增强的趋势,EAWMV和EAWMU分别在约2.6 Ma和约1.5 Ma突然增强。EAWMV(EAWMU)在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前主要以20 ka岁差周期为主导,约2.2~1.0 Ma(约1.5~1.0 Ma)的转型期以41 ka倾角周期和20 ka岁差周期为主导,约1.0 Ma之后则均出现100 ka、41 ka和20 ka这3个轨道周期特征,并以100 ka偏心率周期为主导。在约2.2 Ma(约1.5 Ma)之前,EAWMV(EAWMU)主要受控于太阳辐射的直接强迫作用,北半球冰盖的作用相对较弱,在此之后北半球冰盖起主导作用,太阳辐射的直接强迫作用相对较弱。因此,第四纪东亚冬季风与北半球冰盖存在复杂的耦合关系,当冰盖规模较小时,它们的关系很弱;反之,当冰盖规模较大时,它们的联系加强。