Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.     

Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21: Comparisons,Causes, and Future Implications

Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”.     

自动气象站出现故障编发报文的几种方法

1引言伊春自动气象站是国家基本站(现改为一级站),每天担负8次天气报,资料参加全球交换。当计算机出现故障时,天气报是否能在规定的时间内准确的编发出是至关重要的。出现故障时,在短时间内准确的手工编发出报文难度很大,容易出现错情或造成迟报等重大错情。为了避免这种情况的发生,总结了以下几种方法进行编发报,降低了出错的几率。     

The Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOPs of Three Typhoon Events

In this paper, several sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were designed for three typhoon cases to determine whether or not the additional observation data in the sensitive regions identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) could improve the short-range forecast of typhoons. The results show that the CNOPs capture the sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts, which implies that conducting additional observation in these specific regions and eliminating initial errors could reduce forecast errors. It is inferred from the results that dropping sondes in the CNOP sensitive regions could lead to improvements in typhoon forecasts.     

秋天

风就那么轻轻地扇了一下,整个荒原就着了火,不停奔忙的救火人却面带微笑。站在垄上,我的心在随着他们的韵律激动地博跳。金黄色玉米,黄金样水稻,所有的稼禾都积极地     

精细农业研究进展

精细农业是随着全球定位系统、遥感技术和农业新技术、地理信息系统、计算机技术的发展而兴起的现代农业管理方法,它将给农业生产带来深刻的变革.从农业资源的利用现状出发,分析了精细农业概念产生的必然性及其核心指导思想,并阐述了精细农业的技术组成、形成过程、国内外现状、发展趋势和成功应用.     

INVESTIGATION OF THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME HIGH TEMPERATURE IN CHINA WITH DETRENDED FLUCTUATION AND PERMUTATION ENTROPY

With temperatures increasing as a result of global warming,extreme high temperatures are becoming more intense and more frequent on larger scale during summer in China.In recent years,a variety of researches have examined the high temperature distribution in China.However,it hardly considers the variation of temperature data and systems when defining the threshold of extreme high temperature.In order to discern the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme heat in China,we examined the daily maximum temperature data of 83 observation stations in China from 1950 to 2008.The objective of this study was to understand the distribution characteristics of extreme high temperature events defined by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA).The statistical methods of Permutation Entropy(PE)were also used in this study to analyze the temporal distribution.The results showed that the frequency of extreme high temperature events in China presented 3 periods of 7,10—13 and 16—20 years,respectively.The abrupt changes generally happened in the 1960s,the end of 1970s and early 1980s.It was also found that the maximum frequency occurred in the early 1950s,and the frequency decreased sharply until the late 1980s when an evidently increasing trend emerged.Furthermore,the annual averaged frequency of extreme high temperature events reveals a decreasing-increasing-decreasing trend from southwest to northeast China,but an increasing-decreasing trend from southeast to northwest China.And the frequency was higher in southern region than that in northern region.Besides,the maximum and minimum of frequencies were relatively concentrated spatially.Our results also shed light on the reasons for the periods and abrupt changes of the frequency of extreme high temperature events in China.     

自动站大风报警程序设计

1引言在自动站投入使用前绝大多数气象站使用的是EL型风向风速计,其瞬间风速是通过风速指示计人工测得的,人为因素大,精度不够,但人工测量给大风重要天气报、大风危险和解除报提供了依据,不会出现大风记录和报文之间的矛盾现象,而自动站的大风记录却不一样,其记录的大风的起止时间,极大风速及出现的时间是非常精确的,要求值班员实时注意查看自动站的大风记录,避免漏报、错报。由于自动站采集控制软件SAWSS在处理大风记录时存在不足,当大风达到不同的发报标准时不能及时报警,以提醒值班人员作出相应的处理,所以极易造成过时报,甚至漏报。     

气象水文灾害的防灾减灾教育培训新进展

简要综述了第十届世界气象组织教育与培训大会的主题报告内容.本次大会主要讨论防灾减灾的气象水文教育与培训等问题,集中讨论了"备灾-预防和早期预警"、"减灾-应急、救援和重建"和"跨学科培训"等3个主题,强调集合数值预报系统对于估计出现极端天气事件的风险非常重要,同时必须培训气象、水文工作者使用集合预报中的概率预报信息.中国气象灾害监测、预测和预警已经从单纯提供一般意义上的气象灾害信息提升到有利于社会经济发展的气象灾害服务,既考虑自然因子也考虑经济发展的影响.在跨学科培训方面,将管理知识和气象知识结合起来,可以取得非常好的效果.大会建议提高世界气象组织区域培训中心以及各国气象水文部门培训单位的培训能力,主要通过提供防灾减灾的专门培训单元,对自然灾害风险管理短期课程进行指导,重视各国气象水文部门对于管理和传播领域培训的需求.     

Transformational adaptation on the farm: Processes of change and persistence in transitions to ‘climate-smart’ regenerative agriculture

Regenerative agriculture, an alternative form of food and fiber production, concerns itself with enhancing and restoring resilient systems supported by functional ecosystem processes and healthy, organic soils capable of producing a full suite of ecosystem services, among them soil carbon sequestration and improved soil water retention. As such, climate change mitigation and adaptation are incidental to a larger enterprise that employs a systems approach to managing landscapes and communities. The transformative potential of regenerative agriculture has seen growing attention in the popular press, but few empirical studies have explored the processes by which farmers enter into, navigate, and, importantly, sustain the required paradigm shift in their approach to managing their properties, farm businesses, and personal lives. We draw on theories and insights associated with relational thinking to analyze the experiences of farmers in Australia who have undertaken and sustained transitions from conventional to regenerative agriculture. We present a conceptual framework of “zones of friction and traction” occurring in personal, practical, and political spheres of transformation that both challenge and facilitate the transition process. Our findings illustrate the ways in which deeply held values and emotions influence and interact with mental models, worldviews, and cultural norms as a result of regular monitoring; and how behavioral change is sustained through the establishment of self-amplifying positive feedbacks involving biophilic emotions, a sense of well-being, and an ever-expanding worldview. We conclude that transitioning to regenerative agriculture involves more than a suite of ‘climate-smart’ mitigation and adaptation practices supported by technical innovation, policy, education, and outreach. Rather, it involves subjective, nonmaterial factors associated with culture, values, ethics, identity, and emotion that operate at individual, household, and community scales and interact with regional, national and global processes. Findings have implications for strategies aimed at facilitating a large-scale transition to climate-smart regenerative agriculture.     

积温效应在电力日峰谷负荷中的应用及检验

从电力气象服务需求出发,利用2001—2010年5—9月河北省南电网逐日电力日峰负荷、日谷负荷与对应时间的气象资料,探讨晴热天气和闷热天气对电力日峰负荷、日谷负荷的影响特征。分析发现持续3 d以上的闷热天气相对晴热天气使电力日峰负荷、日谷负荷增长更显著;日最高气温32℃是引起河北省南电网日峰负荷增长的初始气温敏感点,35℃为强气温敏感点,38℃为极强气温敏感点,日最低气温25℃为引起日谷负荷增加的敏感气温临界点;建立了引入积温热累积效应的日峰负荷、日谷负荷多元回归气象预测模型,经2011—2013年应用检验,日峰负荷、日谷负荷预测平均相对误差分别为4.8%和3.5%,提高了预测准确率,对电力调度具有参考价值。     

以科学发展观指导信息学院的发展

以科学发展观为指导．从高等教育的办学规律出发,对信息学院发展的目的、本质、内涵和模式进行了认真的分析和思考。认为要实现信息学院全面、协调、可持续的健康发展。就要实现学科建设、教学科研、管理工作、对外交流、思想政治工作等方面的协调发展;实现规模、质量、结构、效益的有机统一;实现以学生为本、以教师为本,促进人的全面发展。认为要有先进的办学理念,准确的办学定位,合理的发展规划和正确的舆论导向,从而在思想认识和宏观战略层面上全面落实科学发展观;要认真分析教学、科研、管理、改革、思想工作等业务领域的实际情况,并正确处理他们之间的相互关系,寻找学院不同阶段的工作切入点。从而在办学实践和具体工作层面上全面落实科学发展观。     

Advances in Severe Convection Research and Operation in China

This article reviews the advances in severe convection research and operation in China during the past several decades.The favorable synoptic situations for severe convective weather(SCW),the major organization modes of severe convective storms(SCSs),the favorable environmental conditions and characteristics of weather radar echoes and satellite images of SCW and SCSs,and the forecasting and nowcasting techniques of SCW,are emphasized.As a whole,Chinese scientists have achieved a profound understanding of the synoptic patterns,organization,and evolution characteristics of SCW from radar and satellite observations,and the mechanisms of different types of convective weather in China.Specifically,in-depth understanding of the multiple types of convection triggers,along with the environmental conditions,structures and organization modes,and maintenance mechanisms of supercell storms and squall lines,has been obtained.The organization modes and climatological distributions of mesoscale convective systems and different types of SCW,and the multiscale characteristics and formation mechanisms of large hail,tornadoes,downbursts,and damaging convective wind gusts based on radar,satellite,and lightning observations,as well as the related features from damage surveys,are elucidated.In terms of operational applications,different types of identification and mesoanalysis techniques,and various forecasting and nowcasting techniques using methods such as the"ingredients-based"and deep learning algorithms,have been developed.As a result,the performance of operational SCW forecasts in China has been significantly improved.     

预报科学

世界各国和各地区的环境预报中心的主要任务是向本国、本地区和全球公众发布科学的环境预报,包括天气、水、气候和空间天气的预报。气象学家与其他科学家合作,一起制作可靠、及时、准确的分析结果、指导意见、预报及预警,以确保人们的生命和财产安全,促进全球经济的发展,以满足人们日益增长的对环境信息的需求。为了更准确地制作预报、更好地服务大众以及最大限度地减少生命和财产损失,这里提出了＂预报科学＂思想。预报科学包括现代观测系统的资料收集、观测与预报信息的实时交流、各种科学技术的发展、无缝隙预报以及公共服务等。预报科学可以概括为三个相互独立的部分,即科学性、工程性和艺术性,且三者存在相互作用。总之,天气预报是大气与环境服务的重要组成部分;预报科学的科学性、工程性和艺术性均服务于天气预报、服务于人民。     

雷电资料分析处理系统的设计与应用

为了充分发挥雷电资料的作用,解决资料的质量问题,建立雷电综合数据库及其资料分析处理加工平台。基于JavaScript的WebGIS框架和CIMISS数据库,设计开发了具有数据处理和质量控制、分析和应用功能的雷电资料分析处理系统,建立了以闪电、大气电场、雷暴日和雷击灾害数据为主要内容的雷电信息数据库。该系统能够实时监测卫星、雷达、闪电、大气电场等多种探测信息,开展雷电数据的质量控制,回演、动态播放历史信息,具有信息查询统计、分析绘制曲线、制作雷电报告等多项功能,为防雷业务、科研和服务工作提供方便、高效的应用工具和技术平台。以2015年6月1—2日湖北监利县的一次强雷电天气过程为例,通过对这次雷电过程的应用实践表明:雷电资料分析处理系统闪电监测准确,图表绘制快速,统计分析结果适用,能够满足防雷业务及科研工作的需要,为高效开展雷电灾害防御和服务提供了高效的基础性平台。     

宁夏气象3S系统

利用多参数条件下的分层量化空间信息处理技术与评估技术，建立了从GPS、RS实时数据采集、校正、反演到GIS多源空间信息综合分析和动态监测的一体化气象3S系统，实现了宁夏气候和农业基础资源信息从传统的定性、单点静态分析到定量和定位的动态精细评估的转变，为农业区划、农业结构调整及生态建设提供了一个全数字、高精度的客观评估和实时监测系统，初步实现了农业资源潜力的均衡利用和可持续发展目标。     

关于气候变化与荒漠化关系的新认知

IPCC于2019年8月7日通过了《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要,报告第3章评估了气候变化与荒漠化的关系,取得了一些新认识,包括全球旱地(dryland)和荒漠化的范围、荒漠化过程与影响因素、荒漠化的检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化的联系。在估计荒漠化变化、荒漠化变化检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化联系方面还存在不足。这些评估结果对我国认识旱地和荒漠化范围的变化、影响荒漠化因素、荒漠化过程、荒漠化变化检测与归因,荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,以及防治荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化方面等都有重要的启示。     

Regional meteorological patterns for heavy pollution events in Beijing

The present study investigates meteorological conditions for the day-to-day changes of particulate matter (PM) concentration in Beijing city during the period 2008–2015. The local relationship of PM concentration to surface air temperature, pressure, wind speed, and relative humidity displays seasonal changes and year-to-year variations. The average correlation coefficient with PM₁₀ in spring, summer, fall, and winter is 0.45, 0.40, 0.38, and 0.30 for air temperature; –0.45, –0.05, –0.40, and –0.45 for pressure; 0.13, 0.04, 0.53, and 0.50 for relative humidity; and –0.18, –0.11, –0.45, and –0.33 for wind speed. A higher correlation with wind speed is obtained when wind speed leads by half a day. The heavily polluted and clean days, which are defined as the top and bottom 10% of the PM values, show obvious differences in the regional distribution of air temperature, pressure, and wind. Polluted days correspond to higher air temperature in all the four seasons, lower sea level pressure and anomalous southerly winds to the south and east of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, and a northwest–southeast contrast in the pressure anomaly and anomalous southerly winds in summer. Higher relative humidity is observed on polluted days in fall and winter. The polluted days are preceded by an anomalous cyclone moving from the northwest, accompanied by lower pressure and higher air temperature, in all four seasons. This feature indicates the impacts of moving weather systems on local meteorological conditions for day-to-day air quality changes in Beijing.     

中国小麦干热风灾害研究进展

小麦干热风灾害是危害我国北方麦区的主要农业气象灾害之一。基于已有研究成果和实际灾情,从干热风的概念、分类及研究方法出发,对小麦干热风灾害的危害机理、气象环境成因、致灾指标、时空分布、监测预报及防御措施等方面进行了系统归纳阐述,并对未来小麦干热风灾害研究方向进行展望。我国小麦干热风灾害主要分为高温低湿型、雨后青枯型及旱风型3种,形成的气象环境成因主要受干热风天气系统、气候变暖、土壤墒情的影响,致灾指标主要分为形态学、气象学、综合指数指标。小麦干热风灾害的危害总体呈东西两边重、中间轻的分布格局,主要发生在黄淮海平原、河西走廊和新疆3个地区。气候变暖背景下,大部分地区的干热风年日数在20世纪80—90年代出现突变,近30年呈明显加重扩大趋势。基于土壤墒情影响的小麦干热风灾害等级指标构建、小麦干热风过程的灾害监测预警方法、气候变化背景下小麦干热风灾害时空分布新变化及其气象环境成因等是今后研究的重点方向。