Distribution of Helical Properties of Solar Magnetic Fields

We summarize studies of helical properties of solar magnetic fields such as current helicity and twist of magnetic fields in solar active regions (ARs), that are observational tracers of the alpha-effect in the solar convective zone (SCZ). Information on their spatial distribution is obtained by analysis of systematic mag-netographic observations of active regions taken at Huairou Solar Observing Station of National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The main property is that the tracers of the alpha-effect are antisymmetric about the solar equator. Identifying longitudinal migration of active regions with their individual rotation rates and taking into account the internal differential rotation law within the SCZ known from helioseismology, we deduce the distribution of the effect over depth. We have found evidence that the alpha-effect changes its value and sign near the bottom of the SCZ, and this is in accord with the theoretical studies and numerical simulations. We discuss     

Evolution of the Sun’s Polar Fields and the Poleward Transport of Remnant Magnetic Flux

Observations of the solar photosphere show spatially compact large-amplitude Doppler velocity events with short lifetimes. In data from the Imaging Magnetograph eXperiment (IMaX) on the first flight of the Sunrise balloon in 2009, events with velocities in excess of 4\(\sigma \) from the mean can be identified in both intergranular downflow lanes and granular upflows. We show that the statistics of such events are consistent with the random superposition of strong convective flows and p-mode coherence patches. Such coincident superposition complicates the identification of acoustic wave sources in the solar photosphere, and may be important in the interpretation of spectral line profiles formed in solar photosphere.

     

Comparison of Solar Magnetic Fields Measured at Different Observatories: Peculiar Strength Ratio Distributions Across the Disk

In this paper we analyze the distribution of magnetic strength ratios (MSR) across the solar disk using magnetograms in different spectral lines from the same observatory (Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) and Sayan Observatory (SO)), magnetograms in the same line from different observatories (MWO, SO, Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO)), and in different spectral lines from different observatories (the three observatories mentioned above, the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak (KP) and Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO)). We find peculiarities in some combinations of data sets. Besides the expected MSR center-to-limb variations, there is an equator-to-pole asymmetry, especially in the near-limb areas. Therefore, it is generally necessary to use 2D matrices of correction coefficients to reduce one kind of observation into another one.     

Changes in Quasi-periodic Variations of Solar Photospheric Fields: Precursor to the Deep Solar Minimum in Cycle 23?

Possible precursor signatures in the quasi-periodic variations of solar photospheric fields were investigated in the build-up to one of the deepest solar minima experienced in the past 100 years. This unusual and deep solar minimum occurred between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. We used both wavelet and Fourier analysis to study the changes in the quasi-periodic variations of solar photospheric fields. Photospheric fields were derived using ground-based synoptic magnetograms spanning the period 1975.14 to 2009.86 and covering Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23. A hemispheric asymmetry in the periodicities of the photospheric fields was seen only at latitudes above ±?45^° when the data were divided into two parts based on a wavelet analysis: one prior to 1996 and the other after 1996. Furthermore, the hemispheric asymmetry was observed to be confined to the latitude range of 45^° to 60^°. This can be attributed to the variations in polar surges that primarily depend on both the emergence of surface magnetic flux and varying solar-surface flows. The observed asymmetry along with the fact that both solar fields above ±?45^° and micro-turbulence levels in the inner-heliosphere have been decreasing since the early- to mid-nineties (Janardhan et al. in Geophys. Res. Lett. 382, 20108, 2011) suggest that around this time active changes occurred in the solar dynamo that governs the underlying basic processes in the Sun. These changes in turn probably initiated the build-up to the very deep solar minimum at the end of Cycle 23. The decline in fields above ±?45^°, for well over a solar cycle, would imply that weak polar fields have been generated in the past two successive solar cycles, viz. Cycles 22 and 23. A continuation of this declining trend beyond 22 years, if it occurs, will have serious implications for our current understanding of the solar dynamo.     

Phase Space Analysis: The Equilibrium of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

We present the results of a statistical study of the solar cycle based on the analysis of the superficial toroidal magnetic field component phase space. The magnetic field component used to create the embedded phase space was constructed from monthly sunspot number observations since 1750. The phase space was split into 32 sections (or time instants) and the average values of the orbits on this phase space were calculated (giving the most probable cycle). In this phase space it is shown that the magnetic field on the Sun’s surface evolves through a set of orbits that go around a mean orbit (i.e., the most probable magnetic cycle that we interpret as the equilibrium solution). It follows that the most probable cycle is well represented by a van der Pol oscillator limit curve (equilibrium solution), as can be derived from mean-field dynamo theory. This analysis also retrieves the empirical Gnevyshev – Ohl’s rule between the first and second parts of the solar magnetic cycle. The sunspot number evolution corresponding to the most probable cycle (in phase space) is presented.     

Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?

In this work, the evolution of the relationship between Solar Cycle Length of solar cycle n (SCL _n ) and Solar Cycle Amplitude of the solar cycle n+1 (SCA _n+1) is studied by using the R _Z and R _G sunspot numbers. We conclude that this relationship is only strongly significant in a statistical sense during the first half of the historical record of R _Z sunspot number whereas it is considerably less significant for the R _G sunspot number. In this sense we assert that these simple lagged relationships should be avoided as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.     

The Rotation Rates of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Employing the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic fields from the beginning of solar cycle 21 to the end of 23, we first build up a time – longitude stackplot at each latitude between ±35°. On each stackplot there are many tilted magnetic structures clearly reflecting the rotation rates, and we adopt a cross-correlation technique to explore the rotation rates from these tilted structures. Our new method avoids artificially choosing magnetic tracers, and it is convenient for investigating the rotation rates of the positive and negative fields by omitting one kind of field on the stackplots. We have obtained the following results. i) The rotation rates of the positive and negative fields (or the leader and follower polarities, depending on the hemispheres and solar cycles) between latitudes ±35° during solar cycles 21–23 are derived. The reversal times of the leader and follower polarities are usually not consistent with the years of the solar minimum, nevertheless, at latitudes ±16°, the reversal times are almost simultaneous with them. ii) The rotation rates of the three solar cycles averaged over each cycle are calculated separately for the positive, negative and total fields. The latitude profiles of rotation of the positive and negative fields exhibit equatorial symmetries with each other, and those of the total fields lie between them. iii) The differences in rotation rates between the leader and follower polarities are obtained. They are very small near the equator, and increase as latitude increases. In the latitude range of 5° – 20°, these differences reach 0.05 deg day⁻¹, and the mean difference for solar cycle 22 is somewhat smaller than cycles 21 and 23 in these latitude regions. Then, the differences reduce again at latitudes higher than 20°.     

Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the 11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity.     

Milestones in the Observations of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

Magnetic fields are observed everywhere in the universe. In this review, we concentrate on the observational aspects of the magnetic fields of Galactic and extragalactic objects. Readers can follow the milestones in the observations of cosmic magnetic fields obtained from the most important tracers of magnetic fields, namely, the star-light polarization, the Zeeman effect, the rotation measures (RMs, hereafter) of extragalactic radio sources, the pulsar RMs, radio polarization observations, as well as the newly implemented sub-mm and mm polarization capabilities. The magnetic field of the Galaxy was first discovered in 1949 by optical polarization observations. The local magnetic fields within one or two kpc have been well delineated by starlight polarization data. The polarization observations of diffuse Galactic radio background emission in 1962 confirmed unequivocally the existence of a Galactic magnetic field. The bulk of the present information about the magnetic fields in the Galaxy comes from anal     

Current Helicity and Twist as Two Indicators of the Mirror Asymmetry of Solar Magnetic Fields

A comparison between the two tracers of magnetic field mirror asymmetry in solar active regions – twist and current helicity – is presented. It is shown that for individual active regions these tracers do not possess visible similarity but averaging by time over the solar cycle, or by latitude, reveals similarities in their behavior. The main property of the data set is antisymmetry over the solar equator. Considering the evolution of helical properties over the solar cycle we find signatures of a possible sign change at the beginning of the cycle, though more systematic observational data are required for a definite confirmation. We discuss the role of both tracers in the context of solar dynamo theory.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

A New Method of Identifying 3D Null Points in Solar Vector Magnetic Fields

Employing the Poincare index of isolated null-points in a vector field, we worked out a mathematical method of searching for 3D null-points in coronal magnetic fields. After introducing the relevant differential topology, we test the method by using the analytical model of Brown & Priest. The location of null-point identified by our method coincides precisely with the analytical solution. Finally we apply the method to the 3D coronal magnetic fields reconstructed from an observed MDI magnetogram of a super-active region (NOAA 10488). We find that the 3D null-point seems to be a key element in the magnetic topology associated with flare occurrence.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

Solar Cycle Effects on the Dynamics of Jupiter’s and Saturn’s Magnetospheres

The giant planetary magnetospheres surrounding Jupiter and Saturn respond in quite different ways, compared to Earth, to changes in upstream solar wind conditions. Spacecraft have visited Jupiter and Saturn during both solar cycle minima and maxima. In this paper we explore the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) upstream of Saturn and Jupiter as a function of solar cycle, deduced from solar wind observations by spacecraft and from models. We show the distributions of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF azimuthal and meridional angles over the changing solar cycle conditions, detailing how they compare to Parker predictions and to our general understanding of expected heliospheric structure at 5 and 9 AU. We explore how Jupiter’s and Saturn’s magnetospheric dynamics respond to varying solar wind driving over a solar cycle under varying Mach number regimes, and consider how changing dayside coupling can have a direct effect on the nightside magnetospheric response. We also address how solar UV flux variability over a solar cycle influences the plasma and neutral tori in the inner magnetospheres of Jupiter and Saturn, and estimate the solar cycle effects on internally driven magnetospheric dynamics. We conclude by commenting on the effects of the solar cycle in the release of heavy ion plasma into the heliosphere, ultimately derived from the moons of Jupiter and Saturn.     

Modelling the Coupling Role of Magnetic Fields in Helioseismology

Helioseismic global modes change in time, in particular on time scales of the solar cycle. These changes show, in fact, strong correlation with the magnetic activity cycle of the Sun, indicating that a most likely cause of the variation of the mode characteristics, such as frequency, is the magnetic field. In the present paper I attempt to find out in what ways and to what degree the magnetic atmosphere of the Sun can influence the f and p modes of helioseismology. Frequency shifts of the order of a microhertz, line widths of the order of a nanohertz, and penetration depths of the order of a megameter are obtained.     

Did Predictions of the Maximum Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23 Come True?

For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, 80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of 80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.