On the Lower Energy Cutoff of Nonthermal Electrons in Solar Flares

1 INTRODUCTIONThe lower energy cutoff of nonthermal electron beams is an important quantity. Not only isit related to the acceleration mechanism, but it also determines the total number of acceleratedelectrons and the energy they carry. The power-law of electron beams cannot extend to lowerenergies indefinitely for if it did, it would imply an indeflnite1y large nuInber of electrons.A lower energy cutoff (E.), therefore, must exist, to keep the number of electrons within areasonable rang…     

A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition (that the correlation becomes stronger) is satisfied, the mean prediction error (16.1) is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied (38.7). This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search.for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4±15.7, and the peak as May 2012± 11 months.     

Energetics and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections in Different Plasma Environments

Based on previous work, we investigate the propagation of CMEs in a more realistic plasma environment than the isothermal atmosphere, and find that it is a slightly faster reconnection for flux ropes to break free. The average Alfven Mach number MA for the inflow into the reconnection site has to be at least 0.013 in order to give a plausible eruption (compared to MA = 0.005 for the isothermal atmosphere). Taking MA = 0.1, we find that the energy output and the electric field induced inside the current sheet match the temporal behavior inferred from the energetic, long duration, CME-associated X-ray events. The results indicate that catastrophic loss of equilibrium in the coronal magnetic field provides the most promising mechanism for major solar eruptions, and that the more energetic the eruption is, the earlier the associated flare peaks. The variation of the output power with the background field strength revealed by our calculations implies the poor correlation between slow CMEs and solar flares. Th     

Determination of the Topology Skeleton of Magnetic Fields in a Solar Active Region

Magnetic topology has been a key to the understanding of magnetic energy re-lease mechanism. Based on observed vector magnetograms, we have determined the three-dimensional (3D) topology skeleton of the magnetic fields in the active region NOAA 10720.The skeleton consists of six 3D magnetic nulls and a network of corresponding spines, fans,and null-null lines. For the first time, we have identified a spiral magnetic null in Sun's corona.The magnetic lines of force twisted around the spine of the null, forming a 'magnetic wreath'with excess of free magnetic energy and resembling observed brightening structures at extra-ultraviolet (EUV) wavebands. We found clear evidence of topology eruptions which are re-ferred to as catastrophic changes of topology skeleton associated with a coronal mass ejection(CME) and an explosive X-ray flare. These results shed new lights on the structural complex-ity and its role in explosive magnetic activity. The concept of flux rope has been widely used in modelling explosive magnetic activity, although their observational identity is rather ob-scure or, at least, lacking of necessary details up to date. We suggest that the magnetic wreath associated with the 3D spiral null is likely an important class of the physical entity of flux ropes.     

An Impulsive Heating Model for the Evolution of Coronal Loops

It was suggested by Parker that the solar corona is heated by many small energy release events generally called microflares or nanoflares. More and more observations showed flows and intensity variations in nonflaring loops. Both theories and observations have indicated that the heating of coronal loops should actually be unsteady. Using SOLFTM (Solar Flux Tube Model), we investigate the hydrodynamics of coronal loops undergoing different manners of impulsive heating with the same total energy deposition. The half length of the loops is 110 Mm, a typical length of active region loops. We divide the loops into two categories: loops that experience catastrophic cooling and loops that do not. It is found that when the nanoflare heating sources are in the coronal part, the loops are in non-catastrophic-cooling state and their evolutions are similar. When the heating is localized below the transition region, the loops evolve in quite different ways. It is shown that with increasing number of heating pulses and inter-pulse time, the catastrophic cooling is weakened, delayed, or even disappears altogether.     

An Electron Density Model above the Sunspot from a Mapping of NOAA 7260 at 17 GHz

The brightness temperature distribution of microwave emission in a solar active region generally shows a ring structure, with a dip at the centre. However, no dip was found in the Nobeyama Radioheliograph left handed circular polarization (LCP) image on 1992 August 18; instead, there was a peak. This is a completely LCP source with zero right-handed circular polarization (RCP). We examine this structure in terms of the joint effect of gyroresonance and bremsstrahlung mechanism with a raised electron density above the central part of the sunspot, and the commonly assumed temperature and vertical dipole magnetic field models. The raised electron density is found to be 1.4 × 1011 cm-3 at the chromosphere base.     

Anisotropy and Dissipation of Turbulence and Their Effects on Solar Models

1 INTRODUCTIONThe maing-length theory (MLT) is the most commonly used approach to calculate convective energy transport in stars and other astrophysical situations. Based on the original idea ofPrandtl (1952) that turbulent parcels trallsfer heat in a similar way as molecules of gas do inthermal conduction, the MLT assumes that convection cells, drived by buoyancy, move thlougha ~ng length 1 and release the heat they carry when they merge with their environment. Themost widely adopted f…     

Solar Impulsive Hard X-Ray Emission and Two-Stage Electron Acceleration

Heating and acceleration of electrons in solar impulsive hard X-ray (HXR) flares are studied according to the two-stage acceleration model developed by Zhang for solar 3He-rich events. It is shown that electrostatic H-cyclotron waves can be excited at a parallel phase velocity less than about the electron thermal velocity and thus can significantly heat the electrons (up to 40 MK) through Landau resonance. The preheated electrons with velocities above a threshold are further accelerated to high energies in the flare-acceleration process. The flare-produced electron spectrum is obtained and shown to be thermal at low energies and power law at high energies. In the non-thermal energy range, the spectrum can be double power law if the spectral power index is energy dependent or related. The electron energy spectrum obtained by this study agrees quantitatively with the result derived from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) HXR observations in the flare of 2002 July 23. The total flux and energy flux of electrons accelerated in the solar flare also agree with the measurements.     

Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase （2000-2001） of Solar Cycle 23

We present a verification of the short-term predictions of solar Xray bursts for the maximum phase (2000-2001) of Solar Cycle 23, issued by two prediction centers. The results are that the rate of correct predictions is about equal for RWC-China and WWA; the rate of too high predictions is greater for RWC-China than for WWA, while the rate of too low predictions is smaller for RWC-China than for WWA.     

Observational Features of Large-Scale Structures as Revealed by the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

Large-scale magnetic structures are the main carrier of major eruptions in the solar atmosphere. These structures are rooted in the photosphere and are driven by the unceas-ing motion of the photospheric material through a series of equilibrium configurations. The motion brings energy into the coronal magnetic field until the system ceases to be in equilib-rium. The catastrophe theory for solar eruptions indicates that loss of mechanical equilibrium constitutes the main trigger mechanism of major eruptions, usually shown up as solar flares, eruptive prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Magnetic reconnection which takes place at the very beginning of the eruption as a result of plasma instabilities/turbulence inside the current sheet, converts magnetic energy into heating and kinetic energy that are responsible for solar flares, and for accelerating both plasma ejecta (flows and CMEs) and energetic particles. Various manifestations are thus related to one another, and the physics behind these relationships is catastrophe and magnetic reconnection. This work reports on re- cent progress in both theoretical research and observations on eruptive phenomena showing the above manifestations. We start by displaying the properties of large-scale structures in the corona and the related magnetic fields prior to an eruption, and show various morphological features of the disrupting magnetic fields. Then, in the framework of the catastrophe theory, we look into the physics behind those features investigated in a succession of previous works, and discuss the approaches they used.     

Historical Dataset Reconstruction and a Prediction Method of Solar 10.7 cm Radio Flux

We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7.     

On the Relationship between Flux Emergence and CME Initiation

We present in this paper a statistical study aimed at understanding the possible relationship between surface magnetic field variation and CME initiation. The three samples studied comprise 189 CME-source regions, 46 active regions, and 15 newly emerging active regions. Both large-scale and small-scale variations of longitudinal magnetic fields of these regions are studied. To quantitatively study these variations, three physical quantities are calculated: the average total magnetic flux (ATF), the flux variation rate (FVR), and the normalized flux variation rate (NFVR). Our results show that 60% of the CME-source regions are found to have magnetic flux increases during 12 hours before CME eruptions and 40% are found to have magnetic flux decreases. The NFVR of CME-source regions are found to be statistically identical to those of active regions, averaged over 111 hours, and significantly smaller than those of newly emerging active regions. In addition 91% of the CME-source regions are found to have small-scale flux emergence, whereas small-scale flux emergences are also easily identified in active regions during periods with no solar surface activity. Our study suggests that the relationship between flux emergence and CME eruption is complex and the appearance of flux emergence alone is not unique for the initiation of CME eruption.     

Observational Characteristics of Radio Emission Related to Multi-polar Magnetic Configuration

We present a, large complex radio burst and its associated fast tune structures observed on 2001 April 10 in the frequency range of 0.65-7.6 GHz. The NoRH radio image observation shows very complex radio source structures which include preexisting, newly emerging, submerging/cancelling polarities and a bipolar, a tripolar (a 'bipolar + remote unipolar'), and a quadrupolar structure. This suggests that the radio burst is generated from a very complicated loop structure. According to the spectral and image observations, we assume that the beginning of this flare was caused by a single bipolar loop configuration with a 'Y-type' re-connection structure. A composite of radio continuum and fast time structures is contained in this flare. The various fast radio emission phenomena include normal and reverse drifting type III bursts, and slowly drifting and no-drift structures. The tripolar configurations may form a double-loop with a 'three-legged' structure, which is an important source of the various types of fast time structures. The two-loop reconnection model can lead simultaneously to electron acceleration and corona heating. We have also analyzed the behaviors of coronal magnetic polarities and the emission processes of different types radio emission qualitatively. Interactions of a bipolar or multi-polar loop are consistent with our observational results. Our observations favor the magnetic reconnection configurations of the 'inverted Y-type' (bipolar) and the 'three-legged' structures (tripolar or quadrupolar).     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Eruption of an Active-Region Filament Driven by an Emerging Bipole

1 INTRODUCTION Filaments are cool, dense material suspended in the hot, tenuous corona. It is widely accepted that the global magnetic field surrounding the filaments plays a key role in their formation, structure and stability (Tandberg-Hanssen1995). Fil…     

Solar Energetic Particle Event of 2005 January 20： Release Times and Possible Sources

Based on cosmic ray data obtained by neutron monitors at the Earth's surface, and data on near-relativistic electrons measured by the WIND satellite, as well as on solar X-ray and radio burst data, the solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 2005 January 20 is studied. The results show that this event is a mixed event where the flare is dominant in the acceleration of the SEPs, the interplanetary shock accelerates mainly solar protons with energies below 130 MeV, while the relativistic protons are only accelerated by the solar flare. The interplanetary shock had an obvious acceleration effect on relativistic electrons with energies greater than 2 MeV. It was found that the solar release time for the relativistic protons was about 06:41 UT, while that for the near-relativistic electrons was about 06:39 UT. The latter turned out to be about 2 min later than the onset time of the interplanetary type III burst.     

Solar Flare Activity and Variability of Electric Current Helicity

1 INTRODUCTIONRecently Bao, Zhang, Ai, and Zhang (1999), using Huairou vector magnetograph data,have shown that the average current helicity (h.) or the curreflt helicity imbalance ph of activeregions change rapidly after so1ar flares. Up'an the onset of flares it tends to decrease for a fewhours and then to increase again, whereas ifQ some cases the flare promotes an increase in thecurrent helicity The observations led to tbe fol1owing conclusions: (1) raPid and substantialchanges of c…     

A comparison between magnetic shear and flare shear in a well-observed M-class flare

We give an extensive multi-wavelength analysis of an eruptive M1.0/1N class solar flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 10044 on 2002 July 26. Our empha-sis is on the relationship between magnetic shear and flare shear. Flare shear is defined as the angle formed between the line connecting the centroids of the two ribbons of the flare and the line perpendicular to the magnetic neutral line. The magnetic shear is computed from vector magnetograms observed at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), while the flare shear is computed from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) 1700A images. By a detailed comparison, we find that: 1) The magnetic shear and the flare shear of this event are basically consistent, as judged from the directions of the transverse mag-netic field and the line connecting the two ribbons' centroids. 2) During the period of the enhancement of magnetic shear, flare shear had a fast increase followed by a fluctuated decrease. 3) When the magnetic shear stopped its enhancement, the fluctuated decreasing behavior of the flare shear became very smooth. 4) Hard X-ray (HXR) spikes are well correlated with the unshearing peaks on the time profile of the rate of change of the flare shear. We give a discussion of the above phenomena.     

A New Method of Identifying 3D Null Points in Solar Vector Magnetic Fields

Employing the Poincare index of isolated null-points in a vector field, we worked out a mathematical method of searching for 3D null-points in coronal magnetic fields. After introducing the relevant differential topology, we test the method by using the analytical model of Brown & Priest. The location of null-point identified by our method coincides precisely with the analytical solution. Finally we apply the method to the 3D coronal magnetic fields reconstructed from an observed MDI magnetogram of a super-active region (NOAA 10488). We find that the 3D null-point seems to be a key element in the magnetic topology associated with flare occurrence.