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线性扩散波洪水演算模型研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
扩散波概念的提出至今已有近半个世纪。在前人研究的基础上,着重讨论如何把扩散波解析解用到天然河道的洪水演算中去,即通过把入流过程离散成带常系数的单位矩形入流之和,将单位线概念引入具有自由下边界的线性扩散波洪水演算模型,并给出了确定天然河道Ck和μ的实用方法。用于黄河下游6个河段的洪水演算获得了令人满意的成果。扩散波洪水演算模型,继承了水力学方法的长处,又具有水文学方法的优点,可能有罗好的开发应用前景 相似文献
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杭嘉湖地区地势低洼,河网密布,圩洼众多,洪涝水组成复杂,洪水调度十分困难。根据杭嘉湖地区的下垫面条件,利用加拿大一维水动力模型(1-DM)对杭嘉湖地区河网洪水演进进行了探讨。经验证,1-DM计算结果满意,有较好的使用价值。 相似文献
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汾河下游柴庄以下河段由于受人为和处在然等多种因素影响,河道发生持续淤积,过水能力大幅度降低,使河道行洪特点发生很大变化,正常洪水预报方法失效。 相似文献
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作为一种"黑箱"河道演算方法,河槽汇流曲线具有原理简单,应用灵活的特点,应用研究结果表明:1若不考虑基流,进行陡涨陡落洪水演算时,利用马斯京根法所推求的河槽汇流曲线与马斯京根法的精度是相当的;2调整河槽汇流曲线上的值,能有效地模拟河道下渗,提高模拟精度;3曲线可模拟洪水滞后现象及流量分配过程;4河槽汇流曲线时段转换中,应用三次样条插值拟合S累积曲线可有效避免转换的河槽汇流曲线出现时段值"均化"现象,同时需对拟合中出现的凸形与凹形的"特殊"情况进行修正,以保证拟合S累积曲线的合理性。 相似文献
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Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait earthquake, Tajikistan, and associated loss of life 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Stephen G. Evans Nicholas J. Roberts Anatoli Ischuk Keith B. Delaney Galina S. Morozova Olga Tutubalina 《Engineering Geology》2009,109(3-4):195-212
Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in Central Asia. In July 1949, the M7.4 Khait earthquake triggered many hundreds of landslides in a mountainous region near the southern limit of the Tien Shan Mountains, central Tajikistan. These landslides involved widespread rock-slope failure as well as large numbers of flowslides in loess that mantles the steep slopes of the region. In the Yasman valley hundreds of loess landslides coalesced to form a massive loess flow (est. vol. 245 Mm3) that travelled up to 20 km on a slope of only 2°. In an adjacent valley, the Khait landslide involved transformation of an earthquake-triggered rockslide into a very rapid flow by the entrainment of saturated loess into its movement. It travelled 7.41 km over a vertical distance of 1421 m with an estimated average velocity of ~30 m/s. We estimate its volume as 75 Mm3, an order of magnitude less that previously published estimates. The Khait landslide was simulated using DAN. The number of casualties due to earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region was considerable. Approximately 4000 people were killed in the Yasman valley loess flow as 20 villages (kishlaks) were overwhelmed. In the Khait landslide alone we estimate ca. 800 people lost their lives when the villages of Khait and Khisorak were overrun by rapidly moving debris. Our data indicates that a total of approximately 7200 people were killed by earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region of the Khait earthquake and that, in terms of loss of life, the 1949 Yasman valley loess flow was one of the most destructive landslides in recent history. 相似文献
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扩散波的时空反演与洪水实时预报技术 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
以扩散波方程描述天然河道中的洪水波运动规律。将数学物理反问题理论和离散反演算法与河道流量演算相结合提出了扩散波实时预报的方法。该法的特点是在求解流量场Q(x,t)的同时反演计算扩散波波速C(x,t)和扩散系数D(x,t),根据不断监测的新信息系列,直接利用原偏微分方程进行参数的实时校正和预报过程实时修正。 相似文献
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漳卫河中下游河道断面变化较大,该流域的洪水预报调度十分复杂。传统的水文学方法只是借助于历史洪水进行汇流参数率定,本文借助于水力学方法和河道实测断面,利用Easy Riv1D模型对河道洪水演进模拟研究,取得了较好的预报效果,可以为漳卫河流域的河道洪水演进提供技术支撑。 相似文献
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Abu Muhammad Shajaat Ali 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(1):89-111
This paper examines the nature and causes of September 2004 hazardous flood that affected the dry and drought prone southwestern
region of Bangladesh. It also examines human perception of this new hazard and their methods of adjustments to its negative
impacts. Field research for this study includes personal interviews of 453 victim families living in four thanas (lowest administrative
units) in Jessore and Satkhira districts of southwestern Bangladesh. Findings of the study suggest that all victim respondents
viewed this flood event as a natural hazard, which has caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees
and homesteads, and deteriorated human health and sanitation conditions. Its long-term impacts on fish farming, soil quality
degradation, as well as changing land use/land coverage are also noteworthy but yet to be adequately explored. Both perceived
and scientific causes of this flood event include high rainfall for a week before the flood, unusual movement of low pressure
system into the affected area, cloudy weather and low evaporation, siltation of the regional riverbeds, and rolling back of
the Ganges River water through the Ichamati and Bhagirati rivers. These factors also caused hazardous flooding at the same
time in the Ichamati and Bhagirati Rivers and their floodplains in the West Bengal province of India. To release the overflow
of flood water inside India, the Indian border patrol breached the Ichamati river embankment in several places along Satkhira
and Jessore international border which had aggravated the flood situation in the study area. 相似文献
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新疆河流年最大洪峰流量系列初步研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以21处区域代表站年最大洪峰流量系列为例,对新疆河流20世纪下半叶年最大洪峰流量年际变化的部分重要特征以及对其产生显著影响的因素进行了初步研究。研究结论为正确评价现有设计洪水计算成果、提高对水文测站长期观测重要性的认识、促进干旱区洪水理论的研究提供了线索。 相似文献
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Coastal flooding has caused significant damage to a number of communities around the Firth of Clyde in south-west Scotland, UK. The Firth of Clyde is an enclosed embayment affected by storm surge generated in the Northern Atlantic and propagated through the Irish Channel. In recent years, the worst flooding occurred on 5th January 1991 with the estimated damage of approximately £7M. On average, some £0.5M damage is caused each year by coastal flooding. With the latest climate change predictions suggesting increased storm activity and the expected increase in mean sea levels, these damages are likely to increase. In line with the expansion of flood warning provision in Scotland, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has developed a flood warning system to provide local authorities and emergency services with up to 24 h warning of coastal flooding within the Firth of Clyde and River Clyde Estuary up to Glasgow City Centre. The Firth of Clyde flood warning system consists of linked 1-D and 2-D mathematical models of the Firth of Clyde and Clyde Estuary, and other software tools for data processing, viewing and generating warning messages. The general methodology adopted in its implementation was developed following extensive consultation with the relevant authorities, including local councils and police. The warning system was launched in October 1999 and has performed well during four winter flood seasons. The system currently makes forecasts four times a day and is the only operational coastal flood warning system in Scotland.This paper summarises the development of the warning system, gives a review of its operation since its launch in 1999 and discusses future developments in flood warning in Scotland. 相似文献
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Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Gerardo Benito Michel Lang Mariano Barriendos M. Carmen Llasat Felix Francés Taha Ouarda Varyl Thorndycraft Yehouda Enzel Andras Bardossy Denis Coeur Bernard Bobée 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(3):623-643
The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE). 相似文献
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投影寻踪自回归和多维混合回归模型及其在大河长河段洪水预报中的应用 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
投影寻踪自回归和多维混合回归模型,是将投影寻踪技术应用于时间序列分析中的一种新型的非线性时序分析模型。本文将此模型用于长江寸滩-宜昌河段的洪水演算,不必使用区间雨量资料,仅仅根据上下游站的流量资料,就可做出预见期为48-72h的复杂长河段洪水预报,并取得了令人满意的的研究成果。 相似文献
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The 1998 Flood on the Yangtze, China 总被引:9,自引:1,他引:9
This paper examines the main causes ofthe 1998 flood on the Yangtze and addresses a numberof issues related to the exploitation of naturalresources and counter-measures to the flood hazard.The records show that both the amount of precipitationover the catchment and the floodwater discharge fromthe upper basin did not exceed the historical maximum,but water levels in the middle basin were recordedmuch higher than the historical maximum. Humanactivities have greatly increased the risk of theflood hazard. Extensive reclamation of the lakes andfluvial islands in the middle basin has considerablyreduced the floodwater storage and drainage capacityof these natural landscapes of the Yangtze Basin.Deforestation in the catchment area has induced soilerosion, resulting in a large amount of sedimentdeposited in reservoirs whose storage capacity is thusreduced. Strengthening the flood defence to protectpeople living on the floodplain has raised the waterlevel during the flood. An integrated approach isneeded to produce a balanced management plan that canmeet the financial needs of local people in thecatchment area as well as reduce flood risk to theindustries and urban residents in the middle basin ofthe Yangtze. 相似文献
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东杜奥巴金矿床位于中塔吉克斯坦贵金属成矿带内,是乔列金矿田已探明的4处大型金矿床之一,矿床受区域推覆构造控制明显,时空上与区域发育的古生代浅变质沉积岩系有关;黄铁矿和毒砂是最主要的载金矿物,自然金呈包裹体赋存于成矿期黄铁矿和毒砂矿物中。区域上基底地层与上覆盖层在晚古生代时期经历过3次大规模的构造重组:隆升阶段-造山阶段-晚华力西期造山的最终阶段,并导致矿床当前的时空就位。含碳浅变质碎屑岩带和钠长石化花岗斑岩脉与矿体的成因及时空分布密切相关,矿床成因类型是与早古生代黑色岩系沉积变形、变质及改造作用有关的浅变质碎屑岩型和接触交代蚀变岩型金矿床。 相似文献