全球大震和中国及邻区中强震地震活动(1999年4～5月)

本目录中的地震参数来自“中国地震台临时报告”（简称“月报”）．其中,国内及邻区给出Ｍ≥４．７的事件,全球给出Ｍ≥６的事件．“月报”由中国地震局地球物理研究所九室按月做出．本目录中的发震时刻采用协调世界时（ＵＴＣ）;为了方便中国读者,也给出北京时（ＢＴＣ）．震中位置除给出经纬度外,还给出参考地区名,它仅用作查阅参考,不包含任何政治意义;还给出测定震源位置的台数（ｎ）和标准偏差（ＳＤ）．面波震级ＭＳ是对中周期宽频带ＳＫ地震仪记录,采用北京台１９６５年面波震级公式ＭＳ＝ｌｇ（ＡＨ／Ｔ）＋１．６６ｌｇ（…     

1932年昌马地震构造力学特征探讨

１９３２年昌马地震构造力学特征探讨郭万武，张范民，邢成起，温增平（国家地震局兰州地震研究所，兰州）ＤＩＳＣＵＳＳＩＯＮＯＮＴＨＥＴＥＣＴＯＮＯＭＥＣＨＡＮＩＣＦＥＡＴＵＲＥＳＯＦ１９３２ＣＨＡＮＧＭＡＥＡＲＴＨＱＵＡＫＥＭｓ７．６￥ＧｕｏＷａｎｗｕ；...     

正常震群和前兆震群的判定指标

本文采用大森公式ｎ（ｔ）＝Ｋ／（ｔ＋ｃ）＾ｐ求解Ｋ、ｃ、ｐ三个参数，对云南１９６５年以来７１个地震序列进行研究。确定Ｐ＝０．８为前兆震群和正常震群的判定指标。利用Ｋ、ｃ、ｐ三参数计算序列理论曲线得到晚期强余震前差残曲线超出两倍均方差的结果。     

海南岛东方震群跟踪分析与预测

东方震群历时２７３天，共发生ＭＬ≥１．０级地震５５７次，最大震级为４．５级。介绍了对该震群跟踪分析与预报的过程和方法，震群各活动阶段的判断以及相应的地震对策依据。     

全球大震和中国及邻区中强震地震活动（1999年8～9月）.

本目录中的地震参数来自“中国地震台临时报告”（简称“月报”）．其中,国内及邻区给出Ｍ≥４．７的事件,全球给出Ｍ≥６的事件．“月报”由中国地震局地球物理研究所九室按月做出．本目录中的发震时刻采用协调世界时（ＵＴＣ）;为了方便中国读者,也给出北京时（ＢＴＣ）．震中位置除给出经纬度外,还给出参考地区名,它仅用作查阅参考,不包含任何政治意义;还给出测定震源位置的台数（ｎ）和标准偏差（ＳＤ）．面波震级ＭＳ是对中周期宽频带ＳＫ地震仪记录,采用北京台１９６５年面波震级公式ＭＳ＝ｌｇ（ＡＨ／Ｔ）＋１．６６ｌｇ（…     

唐山大震前后一般震群与前兆震群时空演化特征研究

通过对华北地区１９７０－１９９１年震群活动资料的研究发现;（１）在唐山大震前６－７年,华北地震群活动出现波浪式起伏增强特点,大震后区域震群活动总体关系产;（２）唐山大震前的震群逐渐形成条带分布,震后３年条带走向消失：（３）唐山大有的震群活动显示出一定的迁移性;（４）大震前５年,满足ｂ、Ｋ、ｈ、Ｕ和ｐ中的任意３个指标的前兆震群在７．８级主震周围大量出现。     

算法复杂性川滇地区11个地震带（区）地震预报的研究

以川滇地区１１个地震带（区）为对象，研究了将算法复杂性Ｃ（ｎ）用地地震预报的可能性。文中以１ａ为时间窗，０．５ａ为滑动步长，按２．５＜Ｍ＜３．５＜，３．５＜Ｍ＜４．５和Ｍ＞４．５分成３档，将各地震带（区）地震序列转换成由３种符号组成的字符串，从而计算各地震带（区）算法复杂性Ｃ（ｎ）随时间变化曲线，规定了预报和预报规则，总体上取得了略高于随机瞎报的预报效果，显示了效算法复性用于地震预报研究有一定的前     

自贡地区震群活动特征的探讨

本文针对自贡地区小震群活动频繁，并经常造成一定的社会经济影响的特点，以震群为研究对象，以震群序列的类型判断为分析重点，选用ｂ值，Ｕ值、ｈ值、震群信息熵Ｋ，最大地震与次大地震震级差△Ｍ、最大地震能量占总能量的百分比Ｅ＿１／ΣＥ、蠕变曲线Σ—ｌｏｇｔ等７种常用的地震学方法作为震群类型判断的依据。以《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》有关对震群的定义为准则，从自贡地震台网１９７４年以来的地震观测资料中，选出自贡及周边地区３０个震群，利用上述方法对所有震群进行定量的分析和判断，并将判断结果与实际情况对比检验，初步评价了各方法的判别能力，找出了一些适合本地区各类型地震活动特点的判别方法和指标，为今后本区地震预报服务。计算分析结果表明：（１）自贡地区地震序列以震群型为主，约占６０％。（２）所选用的地震学方法对本区的小震群均有一定的判别效能，判别正确率在０．８５７～０．６２５之间。（３）３０个震群综合判断正确２５个，错判５个。其中震群型序列判断正确率最高，为０．９４４；主—余震型震群次之，为０．８３３；前震型震群样本较少，判断正确率也最低。（４）对于震群型和主—余震型震群的判别，Ｋ值、ｂ值效果最佳，判断正确率分别为０．９１３、     

东海近3.5万年来古海洋环境变化的分子生物标志物记录

结合ＡＭＳ~（１４）Ｃ测年及浮游有孔虫δ~（１８）Ｏ和δ~（１３）Ｃ资料，分别利用Ｕ_（３７）~Ｋ，∑Ｃ_（２１）~－／∑Ｃ_（２２）～＋和Ｐｒ／Ｐｎ恢复了近３．５万年来冲绳海槽的古海洋环境变化．结果表明，近３．５万年来，冲绳海槽经历了７次较强的气候变冷事件（Ｃ１～Ｃ７）和９次陆源物质减少事件（ｅ１～ｅ９），其中的Ｇ１相当于全新世中晚期冷事件，Ｃ２～Ｃ４和Ｃ７分别相当于Ｈ１～Ｈ４事件，ｅ１，对应于海水表层温度ＳＳＴ的降低．Ｈ事件发生时，陆源物质供应显示增加的趋势．气候变冷导致河流输运陆源物质的能力减小，冬季风输运陆源物质的能力增强，Ｈ事件与东亚冬季风密切相关末次盛冰期（２５．８～１５．５ｋａＢＰ）还原环境发生剧烈波动，强还原事件（Ｒ１～Ｒ３）对应于ＳＳＴ的降低和陆源营养物质的增加，而弱还原事件（Ｏ）对应于陆源营养物质的减少．还原环境的变化与表层生产力密切相关．     

地震活动性参数b,η,c在中短期地震预测中的综合应用

本文把模糊模式识别的直接方法应用于以地震活动性参数ｂ，η，ｃ为基础的中甜地震预报，并以华北和松潘两地区为例，建立了一年期和半年期的模糊预报模式中ＦＰ１和ＦＰ０．５。对华北地区Ｍ≥５．８和松潘地区Ｍ≥５．４地震的内符检验（１９７０－１９８８）和外推预报检验（１９８９－１９９１）结果表明，一年期和半年期的内检及外推预报检验符合率可分别达到８８％和６２％以上。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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