一次川西阻塞性特大暴雨的诊断分析

利用T106客观分析场资料,对1998年7月4-6日发生在成都地区的特大暴雨过程进行了热力、动力及水汽条件的诊断分析,并将T106物理量产品24、48小时预报场与对应客观分析场进行比较,结果发现:①暴雨发生在等θse线高度密集的高能锋区和△θse500-800负大值区内;②正、负涡度大值区分别与强烈发展的低值系统及高压坝对应较好;③盆地上空低层辐合、高层辐散的区域,同时存在强烈的上升运动,暴雨就发生在此;④来自南海的水汽源源不断送往盆地,由于高压坝的阻塞作用,水汽在盆地中、西部地区辐合;⑤245的T106物理量场与对应客观分析场吻合较好,有实际预报能力.48s的涡度、散度、垂直速度及水汽通量、水汽通量散度预报场偏差较大,须订正使用.     

一次暴雨过程预报的多模式NWP产品与物理参数的综合分析应用

对照常规天气图实况资料,检验几种常用NWP产品对2008年7月5日山东一次强降水过程的形势场预报和降水预报,并对其物理量场进行诊断分析.结果表明,暴雨落区与诸多物理量场的配置紧密相关;暴雨区出现在低层水汽辐合中心移动路径上,位于与水汽通量散度强辐合中心和强上升运动中心接近处;暴雨区移动方向与水汽通量大值中心、△θse(500-850)负值中心长轴方向一致,水汽通量散度低层辐合、高层辐散两者均满足时有利于强降水发生;200 hPa高空辐散的抽吸作用远比仅有低层辐合更有利于上升运动发展;地面强降水区出现在200 hPa强辐散中心所在处.     

2013年5月河南一次大暴雨成因分析及数值预报检验

利用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了2013年5月25日08时--26日08时河南大暴雨过程的成因,对主要物理量因子的T639预报场进行检验。结果表明：强正涡度平流促使中高空低涡移动、地面低压发展成气旋,最强暴雨区与中高空低涡位置相对应。θse等值面坡度加大使气旋性涡度剧烈增长,产生强烈的上升运动。高空辐散与低空辐合叠加,有利于上升运动加强维持。低空气流带来充沛的水汽,大量水汽辐合有利于产生暴雨。运用正负符号一致率、相关系数和平均距离系数检验T639数值预报产品的结果表明,垂直速度预报最优,其次是涡度、散度、涡度平流预报。水汽通量、假相当位温2412h预报产品参考价值较大。     

MM5物理量对我区暴雨过程预报能力的分析

对我区2004年4—6月几次暴雨天气过程的NN5高度场、涡度场、水汽通量散度场、θse等5个物理量进行分析,以期了解NM5对我区暴雨天气的预报能力,从中发现一些规律性的量化指标,为暴雨的预报提供更多依据。     

广东两次特大暴雨成因的诊断对比

利用气象站常规观测资料、NCEP每日4次再分析等资料,对发生在粤西地区的两次特大暴雨进行综合对比诊断分析,试图为特大暴雨的预报提供一定的依据。结果表明:这两次特大暴雨均是在有利的大尺度环流背景下,在充分的水汽、较强的上升运动、不稳定的大气层结等条件下产生的。暴雨落区和水汽通量散度负大值区、850hPaθse的高值区、θse等值线密集区、螺旋度大值区、垂直速度最大区中心的走向、落区基本一致,暴雨的强度和各物理量值亦有较好的对应关系。     

巴中市“10．19”暴雨天气成因初探

本文从暴雨形成的物理量要素从发，对此次暴雨进行分析，并与T213预报进行对比分析，发现6se、水汽通量散度对此类暴雨具有较好的指示意义，T213预报对本次暴雨有较高精度。     

巴中市"10.19"暴雨天气成因初探

本文从暴雨形成的物理量要素从发,对此次暴雨进行分析,并与T213预报进行对比分析,发现θse、水汽通量散度对此类暴雨具有较好的指示意义,T213预报对本次暴雨有较高精度.     

西南低涡东移引发重庆暴雨的综合诊断

利用NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1°×1°格点资料和MICAPS实时观测资料,使用水汽散度垂直通量、湿螺旋度等新型诊断物理量,对2009年8月2~4日发生在重庆地区由西南低涡东移引发的暴雨做了综合分析。结果表明:水汽主要在大气低层850hPa附近积聚,上升运动强,水汽的辐合上升区域与降水大值区较吻合。500hPa湿z-螺旋度负值区水平分布与相应时段降水落区和强降水中心的分布对应较好,垂直分布上:暴雨区低层正涡度、水汽辐合旋转上升与高层负涡度、水汽辐散相配合,是触发暴雨的有利动力机制。      

一次秋季暴雨过程的物理量特征分析

从环流背景和天气形势特点入手,对2004年9月5～6日出现在贵州省西北部地区的大暴雨天气过程进行了分析,通过对实况场涡度、散度、水汽通量散度、动能的分析,阐述了暴雨落区与这些物理量的对应关系,为秋季暴雨的预报提供一定的参考依据.     

新疆夏季一次特大暴雨天气成因分析

通过对新疆2007.07.17大暴雨过程的T213产品物理场进行解释分析,根据揭示其动力、热力和水汽场特征,进而找出新疆大暴雨天气预报的指标。结果表明:新疆2007.07.17大暴雨天气发生在对流层中层强烈的上升运动区、对流层中低层Ω型θse高能舌中心附近以及对流层中低层偏东气流与中层偏南气流和高层偏北气流交汇处的重合区内;而对流层中低层东路水汽的输送对大暴雨的贡献最为重要。T213产品的涡度、散度、垂直运动、风场、流场、水汽通量、比湿、T-Td场在预报时效上与暴雨区一致;假相当位温场、水汽通量散度场在预报时效上超前于暴雨。     

Scaling of the Vertical Spreading of a Plume of a Passive Tracer in a Rough-Wall Neutral Boundary Layer

The influence of surface roughness on the dispersion of a passive scalar in a rough wall turbulent boundary layer has been studied using wind-tunnel experiments. The surface roughness was varied using different sizes of roughness elements, and different spacings between the elements. Vertical profiles of average concentration were measured at different distances downwind of the source, and the vertical spread of the plume was computed by fitting a double Gaussian profile to the data. An estimate of the integral length scale is derived from the turbulence characteristics of the boundary layer and is then used to scale the measured values of plume spread. This scaling reduces the variability in the data, confirming the validity of the model for the Lagrangian integral time scale, but does not remove it entirely. The scaled plume spreading shows significant differences from predictions of theoretical models both in the near and in the far field. In the region immediately downwind of the source this is due to the influence of the wake of the injector for which we have developed a simple model. In the far field we explain that the differences are mainly due to the absence of large-scale motions. Finally, further downwind of the source the scaled values of plume spread fall into two distinct groups. It is suggested that the difference between the two groups may be related to the lack of dynamical similarity between the boundary-layer flows for varying surface roughness or to biased estimates of the plume spread.     

Continental vegetation as a dynamic component of a global climate model: a preliminary assessment

A simplified vegetation distribution prediction scheme is used in combination with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and coupled to a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1) which includes a mixed-layer ocean. Employed in an off-line mode as a diagnostic tool, the scheme predicts a slightly darker and slightly rougher continental surface than when BATS' prescribed vegetation classes are used. The impact of tropical deforestation on regional climates, and hence on diagnosed vegetation, differs between South America and S.E. Asia. In the Amazon, the climatic effects of removing all the tropical forest are so marked that in only one of the 18 deforested grid elements could the new climate sustain tropical forest vegetation whereas in S.E. Asia in seven of the 9 deforested elements the climate could continue to support tropical forest. Following these off-line tests, the simple vegetation scheme has been coupled to the GCM as an interactive (or two-way) submodel for a test integration lasting 5.6 yr. It is found to be a stable component of the global climate system, producing only ~ 3% (absolute) interannual changes in the predicted percentages of continental vegetation, together with globally-averaged continental temperature increases of up to + 1.5 °C and evaporation increases of 0 to 5 W m^–2 and no discernible trends over the 67 months of integration. On the other hand, this interactive land biosphere causes regional-scale temperature differences of ± 10 °C and commensurate disturbances in other climatic parameters. Tuning, similar to the q-flux schemes used for ocean models, could improve the simulation of the present-day surface climate but, in the longer term, it will be important to focus on predicting the characteristics of the continental surface rather than simple vegetation classes. The coupling scheme will also have to allow for vegetation responses occurring over longer timescales so that the coupled system is buffered from sudden shocks.     

Numerical analysis of a thermotopographically-induced mesoscale circulation in a mountain basin using a non-hydrostatic model

Summary The boundary-layer wind field during weak synoptic conditions is largely controlled by the nature of the landscape. Mesoscale (sub-synoptic) circulations result from horizontal gradients of sensible heat flux due to variation in local topography, variation in surface-cover, and discontinuities such as land-sea contrasts. Such flows are usually referred to as thermally-driven circulations, and are diurnal in nature and often predictable. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic computer model to shed light on the physical mechanisms that drive a persistent easterly wind that develops in the afternoon in the Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand. The easterly – Canterbury Plains Breeze (CPB) – is observed early in the afternoon and is often intense, with mean wind speeds reaching up to 12 m s⁻¹. Although computer modelling in mountainous terrain is extremely challenging, the model is able to simulate this circulation satisfactorily. To further investigate the mechanisms that generate the Canterbury Plains Breeze, two additional idealized model experiments are performed. With each experiment, the effects of the synoptic scale wind and the ocean around the South Island, New Zealand were successively removed. The results show that contrary to previous suggestions, the Canterbury Plains Breeze is not an intrusion of the coastal sea breeze or the Canterbury north-easterly, but can be generated by heating of the basin alone. This conclusion highlights the importance of mountain basins and saddles in controlling near-surface wind regimes in complex terrain.     

Parameterization of a momentum source in a tropical cumulus ensemble

Summary An eddy effect of tropical deep convection on the large-scale momentum, resp vorticity budget is investigated. The process is specified by a simple parameterization approach which is based on a concept of rotating clouds exerting a momentum on the large-scale flow. The cloud rotation is associated with the thermal properties of a cloud ensemble by the principle of conservation of potential vorticity. A decomposition of cloud classes is applied in consistency with the thermodynamical parameterization scheme of Arakawa and Schubert (1974).The parameterization is tested with observations of GATE74, Phase III. The data are processed on a B/C-scale grid (55km) in a region within 9N and 16N, and between 21W and 27W, and with a vertical resolution of 41 levels. The parameterization results correspond to the observed patterns, especially in situations with strong large-scale wind shear. The findings suggest that certain large-scalle flow regimes provoke convective scale momentum generation rather than redistributing large-scale momentum by convective circulations.With 10 Figures     

Spatial structure of a jet flow at a river mouth

The present work concentrates on the latest data measured in the Jordan river flow in lake Kinneret. Spectral characteristics of fluctuating velocity components have been obtained and processed. The three-dimensional structure of turbulence along the flow has been described. The main features of the jet flow turbulence in the river mouth are: a) The supply of turbulent energy changes due to different mechanisms along the flow. b) The structure of turbulence formed in the river decays rapidly along the flow, and c) In the sand area and beyond it, a significant generation of turbulent energy occurs. Quantitative estimations of the above effects were carried out.     

Atmospheric dispersion of a heavier-than-air gas near a two-dimensional obstacle

Flow over a two-dimensional obstacle and dispersion of a heavier-than-air gas near the obstacle were studied. Two species, one representing air and the other representing the heavier-than-air gas were treated. Equations for mass and momentum were cast in mass-averaged form, with turbulent Reynolds stresses and mass fluxes modeled using eddy-viscosity and diffusivity hypotheses. A two-equation k- turbulence model was used to determine the effective turbulent viscosity. Streamline curvature and buoyancy corrections were added to the basic turbulence formulation. The model equations were solved using finite difference techniques. An alternating-direction-implicit (ADI) technique was used to solve the parabolic transport equations and a direct matrix solver was used to solve the elliptic pressure equation.Mesh sensitivities were investigated to determine the optimum mesh requirements for the final calculations. It was concluded that at least 10 grid spaces were required across the obstacle width and 15 across the obstacle height to obtain valid solutions. A non-uniform mesh was used to concentrate the grid points at the top of the obstacle.Experimental measurements were made with air flow over a 7.6 by 7.6 cm obstacle in a boundary-layer wind tunnel. Smoke visualization revealed a low-frequency oscillation of the bubble downstream of the obstacle. Hot-wire anemometer data are presented for the mean velocity and turbulent kinetic energy at the mid-plane of the obstacle and the mid-plane of the downstream recirculation bubble. A single hot-wire probe was found to be suitable for determining mean streamwise velocities with an accuracy of 11 %. The downstream recirculation bubble was unsteady and had a length range from 3 to 8 obstacle lengths.The experimental results for flow over the obstacle were compared with numerical calculations to validate the numerical solution procedure. A sensitivity study on the effect of curvature correction and variation of turbulence model constants on the numerical solution was conducted. Calculations that included the curvature correction model gave a downstream recirculation bubble length of 5.9 obstacle lengths while excluding the correction reduced this length to 4.4.In the second part of the study, numerical calculations were performed for the dispersion of a heavier-than-air gas in the vicinity of the two-dimensional obstacle. Characteristics of an adiabatic boundary layer were used in these calculations. The densities of the contaminant gases were 0, 25 and 50% greater than the air density. Calculations were performed with the contaminant injection source upstream and downstream of the obstacle.Use of the pressure gradient model reduced the size of the dense gas cloud by as much as 12%. The curvature correction model also affected the cloud expanse by reducing the effective turbulent viscosity in the downstream recirculation bubble. The location of the injection source had the largest impact on the cloud size. The area of the cloud within the 5 % contour was three times larger for downstream injection than for upstream injection.     

Unstable modes of a sheared pycnocline above a stratified layer

Internal waves incident on a sheared ocean pycnocline are studied using analytic and numerical methods. Linear analysis of the unstable modes of a sheared ocean pycnocline is used to demonstrate interactions between internal waves and shear instabilities. A new analytic solution for an asymmetric shear layer over a stratified layer is presented, illustrating modes which couple to internal waves, in addition to the well-known Holmboe modes. The robustness of these solutions is demonstrated using numerical methods for realistic shear profiles. Fully nonlinear numerical simulations illustrate the growth of these modes and demonstrate the excitation of shear instabilities by incident internal waves. The results may have implications for internal wave interactions with the ocean pycnocline and the local generation of internal solitary waves.     

The flow of a coastal current past a blunt headland

Abstract

The effect of an abrupt headland on a barotropic oceanic boundary current with variable bottom topography is investigated. The objective is to explore with a very simple model some of the observed features of flow past Brooks Peninsula, an obstacle to boundary currents on the west coast of Vancouver Island. It is shown that the seasonal variation in the background current field causes a large change in the response to the headland. The difference is both quantitative and qualitative and results from the ability of southward alongshore flows to support topographic Rossby lee waves.

As a result of the presence of the lee waves a strong offshore flow occurs just downstream of the Peninsula and this ejects water from the continental shelf into deep water producing features reminiscent of the so‐called “squirts” and “jets”.     

一次台风前部龙卷的多普勒天气雷达分析

通过分析2004年8月25日发生在浙江省宁波市的一次台风前部龙卷发生发展的环境特征, 发现该龙卷发生在台风前部风切变区里, 尽管当时涡度、散度等物理量对于深对流发展不是非常有利, 但下湿中干、强的垂直风切变及地形条件等还是有利于局地弱龙卷的产生; 在宁波新一代天气雷达产品上表现为强的钩状回波, 速度场上有相邻的正负速度中心及强的组合切变值等。通过多个反射率产品、剖面产品等综合分析了该风暴的三维结构, 初步了解此类弱龙卷的发生机理, 为以后的预报提供一些经验。