Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by earthquake chains

“Earthquake chains” are clusters of moderate-size earthquakes which extend over large distances and are formed by statistically rare pairs of events that are close in space and time (“neighbors”). Earthquake chains are supposed to be precursors of large earthquakes with lead times of a few months. Here we substantiate this hypothesis by mass testing it using a random earthquake catalog. Also, we study stability under variation of parameters and some properties of the chains. We found two invariant parameters: they characterize the spatial and energy scales of earthquake correlation. Both parameters of the chains show good correlation with the magnitudes of the earthquakes they precede. Earthquake chains are known as the first stage of the earthquake prediction algorithm reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) now tested in forward prediction. A discussion of the complete RTP algorithm is outside the scope of this paper, but the results presented here are important to substantiate the RTP approach.     

基于集集强震群序列地震特征的地震追踪预测

分析集集强震群前余震序列的 7年 (1993/ 0 9/ 2 1— 2 0 0 0 / 0 9/ 2 0 )中震级规模在M =3 0以上的地震目录 ,可以找到前震类型、孕震空区特征、孕震条带特征、前震丛集性活动与信号震特征、主震前平静以及余震序列的二次余震等至少 6项清楚的地震序列特征。利用已发展出的年度强震趋势分析步骤的经验 ,佐以依据地震序列特征进一步加以追踪的观念 ,以集集地震序列分析为例 ,试图将地震趋势分析由年的时间尺度 ,追踪到更短的月的时间范围 ;并尝试建立台湾地区西部地震带浅源强震的追踪分析步骤 ,并为以测震学为基础的地震预测提供逼近短临时间尺度的分析方法。     

Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea,Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction

Two-dimensional multifractal analysis is performed in a seismic area of Northern Greece responsible for recent strong earthquakes, including the Arnea sequence of May 1995, culminating in a M_w 5.3 event on 4/5/1995. It is found that multifractality gradually increases prior to the major seismic activity and that declusterization replaces clusterization not long before its initialization. The fractal dimensions D(q) (q > 0) abruptly drop for aftershocks, reflecting their very strong spatial clustering. The observed seismicity patterns seem to be compatible with a percolation process. Before the main sequence, the fractal dimension is consistently in the range 1.67–1.96 (standard deviation included). Percolation theory predicts 1.9 for 2D percolation clusters and 1.8 for the backbone of 3D percolation clusters. If the observed gradual increase in multifractality is due to multifractality reaching a maximum prior to the major slip (percolation), this may enable us to roughly estimate its time of occurrence.     

The February 11, 2004 Dead Sea earthquake ML = 5.2 in Jordan and its tectonic implication

A moderate-sized (M_w  5.3) earthquake occurred in the Dead Sea basin on February 11, 2004. A rigorous seismological analysis of the main shock and numerous aftershocks suggests that seismogenic structure was a secondary, antithetic fault within the Dead Sea fault system. The main shock is well located using all available regional seismic stations, and 43 aftershocks were precisely located relative to the main shock using a double difference algorithm. The first motion, focal mechanism for this earthquake demonstrates NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW striking nodal planes, and the aftershocks distribution is consistent with the latter — indicating a right-lateral sense of displacement. This orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly oriented geological faults around the Dead Sea basin — these structures are likely antithetic faults within the transform system. Although moderate in size, earthquakes that occur very close to the large Dead Sea fault system warrant consideration in the earthquake hazard assessment of the region: For example, owing to the proximity to the main fault, moderate earthquakes such as this may produce static changes in Coulomb stress along the main fault.     

Seismic reversal pattern for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, MW 7.6 earthquake

We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Earthquake forerunner as probable precursor — an example from north burma subduction zone

The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1–7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954–2011, within an area of 200 × 300 km² where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1–C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q₁, Q₂ and Q₃) prior to the 6^th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake.     

Role of crustal heterogeneity beneath Andaman–Nicobar Islands and its implications for coastal hazard

The Andaman–Nicobar (A–N) Islands region has attracted many geo-scientists because of its unique location and complex geotectonic settings. The recent occurrence of tsunamis due to the megathrust tsunamigenic north Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) with a series of aftershocks in the A–N region caused severe damage to the coastal regions of India and Indonesia. Several pieces of evidence suggest that the occurrence of earthquakes in the A–N region is related to its complex geodynamical processes. In this study, it has been inferred that deep-seated structural heterogeneities related to dehydration of the subducting Indian plate beneath the Island could have induced the process of brittle failure through crustal weakening to contribute immensely to the coastal hazard in the region. The present study based on 3-D P-wave tomography of the entire rupture zone of the A–N region using the aftershocks of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.3) clearly demonstrates the role of crustal heterogeneity in seismogenesis and in causing the strong shakings and tsunamis. The nature and extent of the imaged crustal heterogeneity beneath the A–N region may have facilitated the degree of damage and extent of coastal hazards in the region. The 3-D velocity heterogeneities reflect asperities that manifest what type of seismogenic layers exist beneath the region to dictate the size of earthquakes and thereby they help to assess the extent of earthquake vulnerability in the coastal regions. The inference of this study may be used as one of the potential inputs for assessment of seismic vulnerability to the region, which may be considered for evolving earthquake hazard mitigation model for the coastal areas of the Andaman–Nicobar Islands region.     

Statistical analysis and long-term prediction of seismicity for linear zones

The model of the Poisson point process is too vague for earthquake locations in space and time: earthquakes tend to cluster in middle distances and to repulse in large ones. The Poisson point model with variable density makes it possible to describe the tendency for clustering but does not reveal the periodicity of clusters. The author proposes the point-process model where locations of points are determined not by densities of point distribution, but by densities of interpoint differences distribution. In the model, a latent periodicity is revealed and used for prediction of a point process. In 1983, the point-process model prediction was made for the Kuril Islands for 1983–1987 and two signs of danger in time and location were determined. Then they were confirmed by strong earth-quakes. In 1989, a similar prediction was made for North Armenia. The Spitak earthquake in 1988 is clearly seen from the data of previous earthquakes.     

Recent activity and seismotectonics of the Eastern Pyrenees

Results from a recent earthquake in the Eastern Pyrenees are presented and the seismotectonics of the region is analyzed from the presently available data. On 26 September 1984 an earthquake (M_L = 4.4) took place in the area of the historical destructive earthquake of 1428. Several portable stations installed in the epicentral area to record aftershocks permitted of defining a precise location at 42°19.2′N, 2°10.2′E and 5 km depth. A maximum felt intensity of V (MSK) is obtained from macroseismic data. The epicentral location lies within a block bounded by E-W-trending structures and the focal solution shows right-lateral shearing with a NW-SE pressure axis.The seismicity in the Eastern Pyrenees shows a complex pattern which can be associated with both E-W fractures and NE-SW fault systems. Focal solutions of another two recent earthquakes of M_L ~ 4, with differences in horizontal pressure axis, are also discussed.     

The devastating Muzaffarabad earthquake of 8 October 2005: New insights into Himalayan seismicity and tectonics

The recent earthquake of 8 October 2005 in the Muzaffarabad region in western Himalaya destroyed several parts of Pakistan and the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The earthquake of magnitude 7.6 claimed more than 80,000 lives, clearly exposing the poor standards of building construction — a major challenge facing the highly populated, earthquake prone, third world nations today. In this paper, we examine variations in the stress field, seismicity patterns, seismic source character, tectonic setting, plate motion velocities, GPS results, and the geodynamic factors relating to the geometry of the underlying subsurface structure and its role in generation of very large earthquakes. Focal mechanism solutions of the Muzaffarabad earthquake and its aftershocks are found to have steep dip angles comparable to the Indian intra-plate shield earthquakes rather than the typical Himalayan earthquakes that are characterized by shallow angle northward dips. A low p-value of 0.9 is obtained for this earthquake from the decay pattern of 110 aftershocks, which is comparable to that of the 1993 Latur earthquake in the Indian shield — the deadliest Stable Continental Region (SCR) earthquake till date. Inversion of focal mechanisms of the Harvard CMT catalogue indicates distinct stress patterns in the Muzaffarabad region, seemingly governed by an overturned Himalayan thrust belt configuration that envelops this region, adjoined by the Pamir and Hindukush regions. Recent developments in application of seismological tools like the receiver function technique have enabled accurate mapping of the dipping trends of the Moho and Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) of Indian lithosphere beneath southern Tibet. These have significantly improved our understanding of the collision process, the mechanism of Himalayan orogeny and uplift of the Tibetan plateau, besides providing vital constraints on the seismic hazard threat posed by the Himalaya. New ideas have also emerged through GPS, macroseismic investigations, paleoseismology and numerical modeling approaches. While many researchers suggest that the Himalayan front is already overdue for several 8.0 magnitude earthquakes, some opine that most of the front may not really be capable of sustaining the stress accumulation required for generation of great earthquakes. We propose that the occurrence of great earthquakes like those of 1897 in Shillong and 1950 in Assam have a strong correlation with their proximity to multiple plate junctions conducive for enormous stress build up, like the eastern Himalayan syntaxis comprising the junction of the India, Eurasia plates, and the Burma, Sunda micro-plates.     

The Dibra (Albania) earthquake of November 30, 1967

On November 30, 1967, a strong earthquake of magnitude M = 6.6 struck the Dibra region, eastern Albania, causing considerable loss of human life and grave material damage both in the territory of Albania and that of Yugoslavia.The object of this study is to describe the effects of this earthquake on landscape and buildings, as well as to define its macroseismic field. The study further deals with some features of the aftershocks of M 4.0 distributed in time and space, the aftershock activity and the focal-mechanism solution of the main event.From the study of the macroseismic field of this earthquake and its fault, which extends over 10 km in a 40° northeasterly direction, from the distribution of aftershocks in space and the focal-mechanism solution of this earthquake, the conclusion has been reached that this event is connected with the Vlora—Dibra seismogenic belt.The authors have mentioned the existence of this traverse belt as early as 1969 (Sulstarova and Koçiaj, 1969). The existence of this belt is also shown by the chronological and geographical distribution of some strong earthquakes in Albania in the period 1800–1967 (their macroseismic field and the position of their epicentres), and by the focal-mechanism solutions of some of these earthquakes. The Vlora—Elbasan—Dibra transverse seismogenic belt continues for several hundred kilometres northeast and southwest beyond the territory of Albania.     

The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan

The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.     

The large aftershocks triggered by the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,Japan

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that occurred off the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, was followed by thousands of aftershocks, both near the plate interface and in the crust of inland eastern Japan. In this paper, we report on two large, shallow crustal earthquakes that occurred near the Ibaraki-Fukushima prefecture border, where the background seismicity was low prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Using densely spaced geodetic observations (GPS and InSAR datasets), we found that two large aftershocks in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions (hereafter referred to as the Iwaki earthquake and the Kita-Ibarake earthquake) produced 2.1 m and 0.44 m of motion in the line-of-sight (LOS), respectively. The azimuth-offset method was used to obtain the preliminary location of the fault traces. The InSAR-based maximum offset and trace of the faults that produced the Iwaki earthquake are consistent with field observations. The fault location and geometry of these two earthquakes are constrained by a rectangular dislocation model in a multilayered elastic half-space, which indicates that the maximum slips for the two earthquakes are 3.28 m and 0.98 m, respectively. The Coulomb stress changes were calculated for the faults following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on the modeled slip along the fault planes. The resulting Coulomb stress changes indicate that the stresses on the faults increased by up to 1.1 MPa and 0.7 MPa in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions, respectively, suggesting that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake triggered the two aftershocks, supporting the results of seismic tomography.     

Earthquake core inferred from near field observations

The source processes of large shallow earthquakes are investigated based on the various field phenomena and on the seismograms recorded at short focal distances. The results from coseismic and postseismic field surveys in some source regions strongly show that there must be a particular region characterized by a large dislocation, large acceleration and extremely low aftershock activity. This specific region seems to have a relatively small dimension compared with the length of the main fault.The predominant short-period waves on the strong-motion seismograms are concentrated within the short intervals at the initial parts of P and S waves. This fact also suggests that the rupture elements generating the predominant short-period waves are not distributed over the entire surface of a single main fault but are concentrated in a small region.We call this confined small region in the source area “earthquake core”. The earthquake core is formed a little later than the start of smoothing dislocation and it may be located at some distance from the starting point of rupture.     

A study of small aftershocks of the Oroville California, earthquake sequence of August 1975

The August 1, 1975 earthquake near Oroville, California, occurred along the Sierra foothills in a region characterized by occasional moderate earthquakes. Several earthquakes in the general region, including those in 1869, 1875, and 1909, appear to have had significant aftershock sequences. The general character of the aftershock sequence of the Oroville earthquake thus does not appear to be anomalous when measured against the known seismic history of this area.

Four smoked-paper micro-earthquake recorders were deployed immediately following the occurrence of the main earthquake to attempt to define the structural associations of the principal earthquake by location and analysis of aftershocks. Focal locations for 243 micro-earthquakes in the magnitude range of 1–3 were selected from the 30-day period (August 2–September 1), during which monitoring was continued. The aftershocks clearly define a planar surface striking north–south and dipping west at 62° from the surface to a depth of about 12 km. Aftershocks during the first two days of monitoring defined a surface of active faulting of approximately 100 km². Extension of this surface both to the north and south began on August 5 at focal depths of 5–10 km, resulting in a total ruptured area of approximately 125 km². The number of aftershocks per day decreased at the rate oft^−1.1, but the decay curve was punctuated by several secondary aftershock sequences. No. direct relationship between the aftershock sequence and the presence of Oroville Reservoir was observed.     

Seismic coupling and uncoupling at subduction zones

Seismic coupling has been used as a qualitative measure of the “interaction” between the two plates at subduction zones. Kanamori (1971) introduced seismic coupling after noting that the characteristic size of earthquakes varies systematically for the northern Pacific subduction zones. A quantitative global comparison of many subduction zones reveals a strong correlation of earthquake size with two other variables: age of the subducting lithosphere and convergence rate. The largest earthquakes occur in zones with young lithosphere and fast convergence rates, while zones with old lithosphere and slow rates are relatively aseismic for large earthquakes. Results from a study of the rupture process of three great earthquakes indicate that maximum earthquake size is directly related to the asperity distribution on the fault plane (asperities are strong regions that resist the motion between the two plates). The zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities, while the zones with smaller earthquakes have small scattered asperities. This observation can be translated into a simple model of seismic coupling, where the horizontal compressive stress between the two plates is proportional to the ratio of the summed asperity area to the total area of the contact surface. While the variation in asperity size is used to establish a connection between earthquake size and tectonic stress, it also implies that plate age and rate affect the asperity distribution. Plate age and rate can control asperity distribution directly by use of the horizontal compressive stress associated with the “preferred trajectory” (i.e. the vertical and horizontal velocities of subducting slabs are determined by the plate age and convergence velocity). Indirect influences are many, including oceanic plate topography and the amount of subducted sediments.All subduction zones are apparently uncoupled below a depth of about 40 km, and we propose that the basalt to eclogite phase change in the down-going oceanic crust may be largely responsible. This phase change should start at a depth of 30–35 km, and could at least partially uncouple the plates by superplastic deformation throughout the oceanic crust during the phase change.     

Static stress changes induced by the 1924 Pasinler (M = 6.8) and 1983 Horasan-Narman (M = 6.8) earthquakes, Northeastern Turkey

The 1924 Pasinler & 1983 Horasan-Narman earthquakes which struck the Erzurum region occurred on the NE–SW-trending Horasan fault zone about 60 km east of Erzurum basin. The inversion of teleseismic seismograms, the aftershock pattern and the surface faulting of the 30 October 1983 ( M _s = 6.8) Horasan-Narman earthquake indicate that it had dominantly left-lateral motion. One moderately sized aftershock occurred 8 h after the main event and two others a year later on the NE extension of the fault zone. The aftershock distribution dominantly overlapped with the Horasan fault zone, and the aftershocks also migrated from south-west to north-east within the year following the mainshock. The results obtained from modelling of static stress changes caused by the 1983 earthquake are consistent with the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Macroseismic observations of the 1924 earthquake ( M _s = 6.8) indicated that this event occurred on the SW extension of the Horasan fault zone. Static stress modelling of the 1924 earthquake, by using the same input parameters of the 1983 event, has shown that its occurrence increased the stress in the region of the 1983 rupture zone. The static stress changes caused both by the 1924 and the 1983 earthquakes has increased the failure stress at the NE and SW extensions of the Horasan fault zone and in Narman area. Furthermore, the stress has decreased in the vicinity of the Erzurum fault zone, east of the city of Erzurum, the largest city in eastern Turkey, and in the populated Sarikamis area. This might delay the occurrence of a future probable damaging earthquake in these areas.     

Space–time analysis, faulting and triggering of the 2010 earthquake doublet in western Corinth Gulf

Two moderate magnitude earthquakes (M5.5 and M5.4) occurred in January 2010 with their epicenters at a distance of about 5?km between them, in the western part of the Corinth Gulf. The recordings of the regional seismological network, which is dense locally, were used for the location of the two main events and aftershocks, which are concentrated in three clusters beneath the northern coasts of the Gulf. The first two clusters accompany each one of the two stronger earthquakes, whereas the third cluster comprises only low magnitude aftershocks, located westward of the two stronger events. Seismic excitation started in January 18, 2010, with the M?=?5.5 earthquake in the area occupied by the central cluster. Seismicity immediately jumped to the east with numerous aftershocks and the M?=?5.4 earthquake which occurred four days later (January 22, 2010). Cross sections normal to the long axis of each cluster show ruptures on north dipping faults at depths of 7?C11?km. Focal mechanisms of the stronger events of the sequence support the results obtained from the spatial distribution of the aftershocks that three different fault segments activated in this excitation. The slip vectors of all the events have an NNW?CSSE to NNE?CSSW orientation almost parallel to the direction of extension along the Corinth Gulf. Calculation of the Coulomb stress changes supports an interaction between the different clusters, with the major activity being coincided with the area of positive induced stress changes after the first earthquake.     

甘东南及邻区7级以上强震数值模拟

对强震发生后周围断层及未来强震形势的影响研究具有非常重要的意义.青藏高原东北缘强震频发,对该区的历史强震进行研究很有必要.以青藏高原东北缘及邻区为目标建立3D黏弹性有限元模型,依据中国大陆Ⅰ级块体和青藏高原Ⅱ级块体划分及活动断裂分布确定模型块体边界及断裂位置,使用GPS观测资料作为模型边界条件,数值模拟1900年以来7级以上强震发生的动力学过程.计算结果表明:① 青藏高原东北缘及邻区区域水平构造应力场特征大致呈从西向东,从南向北减小分布.② 模拟结果说明强震主要发生在背景场应力和强震引起的等效应力加载的断层上.③ 历史强震序列对1970年以来地震的影响:康定地震加速触发了炉霍地震的发生;康定、炉霍地震对松潘地震无加速触发作用;康定、炉霍、松潘地震对共和地震无加速触发作用;炉霍、松潘、共和地震对汶川地震的影响较小;汶川地震延缓了芦山地震的发生.      

The M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake on 11 April 2012: Coseismic displacement, Coulomb stress change and aftershocks pattern

The M _w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake occurred on April 11, 2012 near the NW junction of three plates viz. Indian, Australian and Sunda plate, which caused widespread coseismic displacements and Coulomb stress changes. We analyzed the GPS data from three IGS sites PBRI, NTUS & COCO and computed the coseismic horizontal displacements. In order to have in-depth understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and probabilistic hazard, we estimated the coseismic displacements and associated Coulomb stress changes from two rectangular parallel fault geometries, constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS) derived coseismic displacements. The Coulomb stress changes following the earthquake found to be in the range of 5 to ?4 bar with maximum displacement of ～11 m near the epicenter. We find that most of the aftershocks occurred in the areas of increased Coulomb stress and concentrated in three clusters. The temporal variation of the aftershocks, not conformed to modified Omori’s law, speculating poroelastic processes. It is also ascertained that the spatio-temporal transient stress changes may promote the occurrence of the subsequent earthquakes and enhance the seismic risk in the region.