基于GIS的东营市震害预测与辅助决策信息管理系统研究

对基于GIS的东营市震害预测与辅助决策信息管理系统的建设目标、建设原则、基本功能、软件结构、数据库设计、软硬件配置、安全策略等方面进行了初步探讨。本系统利用GIS强大的空间分析和网络分析功能,并结合其它专题提供的数学模型,通过对GIS的二次开发动态实现了地震灾害的快速预测与辅助决策功能。     

桥梁群体震害预测方法的研究

本文研究了桥梁群体震害预测方法的理论，并采用模糊数学、灰色系统理论和概率分析方法，建立了中、小型桥梁群体震害预测的数学模型，在对江南一带城市地震震害预测工作中桥梁抽样单体震害预测经验法的计算基础上，给出了公路桥梁在不同地震烈度影响耻的单因素评价矩阵，为区域性的地震震害预测工作提供了一个有力的实用工具。     

城市桥梁震害预测方法的探讨

简要介绍了城市桥梁的六种震害预测方法。在确定采用哪种方法时,要根据桥梁的结构型式、桥墩材料、墩台高度、基础类型等因素来确定。在详细介绍了回归统计法的基础上,通过实际桥梁的震害与回归统计法的预测进行比较,检验了回归统计法的可靠性。     

“震害预测系统”在德令哈6．6级地震应急救灾决策中发挥功效

简要介绍了“海西州震害信息管理系统”的研建原理和功能,2003年4月17日德令哈6．6级地震时,“系统”在地方政府应急救灾决策方面发挥了显功效。     

遗传优化神经网络方法在桥梁震害预测中的应用

本文将遗传算法与神经网络相结合,从而建立了一种高效的、实用的桥梁震害预测方法。根据遗传算法具有局部寻优的特点,为避免BP神经网络陷入局部极小值,本文将二者结合起来形成GA-BP混合算法,以GA优化神经网络的初始权值和阈值,对网络进行训练。在大量收集梁式桥震害资料的基础上,将此算法引入桥梁的震害预测中,并与传统的单独BP神经网络相比较,结果表明该方法能够有效、准确地对桥梁结构进行震害预测。     

山西运城市城区主要桥梁的震害预测

采用经验统计法对山西省运城市的4座主要桥梁进行了震害预测计算,给出了4座桥梁的震害预测结果。认为,4座桥梁的破坏程度不同主要是由于桥主跨长度、桥墩高度、支座形式不同及在计算中采用的系数不同引起的,运城市桥梁的破坏程度较低,在遭遇Ⅷ度地震破坏时,中等以上破坏程度的桥梁占25%。     

辽西地震重点监视区桥梁震害预测

采用统计回归方法，对辽西地震重点监视防御区内４条国家级公路的桥梁１３３座、４次国有铁路的桥梁３３１座，以桥梁震害等级划分原则，求取其震害指数、判定震害等级。     

城市震害预测虚拟仿真系统研究

研究并提出了利用虚拟仿真技术实现城市震害预测结果展示的技术方法和思路,描述了城市震害预测虚拟仿真系统需求、功能设计及结构框架。为震害预测更好服务于城市减灾、服务于民众防灾避险意识的提升等提供有效的技术支撑,具有较好的应用前景。     

城市高层建筑物震害预测和防御决策的专家系统

高层建筑物在地震中易遭破坏，且损失严重。文章研究了这类建筑物震害预测和防御决策的专家系统，讨论了系统设计、知识表示、知识推理等问题。     

地震应急对策决策支持软件的设计与开发

基于空间决策支持技术,设计与开发了地震应急对策软件,在软件的总体设计、功能模块、数据库建设、地震应急对策模型及接口设计与模块集成等方面进行了研究与开发,并在“青岛市地震应急指挥决策支持软件系统”中得到实际应用和检验。实践证明,该软件能够实现城市地震灾害信息的科学管理,智能制定各种地震应急对策和生动的可视化,从而有效提高地震应急的效率和响应速度,为城市地震应急工作提供了有效的辅助决策手段;建成的“青岛市地震应急对策系统”对全国大中城市地震应急指挥技术系统的建设具有示范意义。     

震后应急反应辅助决策系统研究

本文以大庆油田抗震防灾信息与辅助决策系统的研制为例，介绍了震后应急反应辅助决策的主要内容，并列举应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术实现辅助决策的具体过程。     

基于ArcView9.0的城市震害预测及应急对策信息系统研究

介绍了城市防震减灾信息系统基本的构成及功能,并针对国内研发中存在的不足从四个方面进行了完善,即增加了地震预警级别判定功能,丰富了地震信息的录入方式,改进了城市群体建筑物震害预测的计算模型,引入了应急对策模块并利用G IS的可视化功能加以表现。在此基础上研发了基于ArcV iew9.0的城市震害预测及应急对策信息系统,并以山西运城市城区的实际数据进行了系统演示。     

Multi‐angle,multi‐damage fragility curves for seismic assessment of bridges

The scope of this study is to investigate the effect of the direction of seismic excitation on the fragility of an already constructed, 99‐m‐long, three‐span highway overpass. First, the investigation is performed at a component level, quantifying the sensitivity of local damage modes of individual bridge components (namely, piers, bearings, abutments, and footings) to the direction of earthquake excitation. The global vulnerability at the system level is then assessed for a given angle of incidence of the earthquake ground motion to provide a single‐angle, multi‐damage probabilistic estimate of the bridge overall performance. A multi‐angle, multi‐damage, vulnerability assessment methodology is then followed, assuming uniform distribution for the angle of incidence of seismic waves with respect to the bridge axis. The above three levels of investigation highlight that the directivity of ground motion excitation may have a significant impact on the fragility of the individual bridge components, which shall not be a priori neglected. Most importantly, depending on the assumptions made for the component to the system level transition, this local sensitivity is often suppressed. It may be therefore necessary, based on the ultimate purpose of the vulnerability or the life cycle analysis, to obtain a comprehensive insight on the multiple damage potential of all individual structural and foundation components under multi‐angle excitation, to quantify the statistical correlation among the distinct damage modes and to identify the components that are both most critical and sensitive to the direction of ground motion and carefully define their limit states which control the predicted bridge fragility. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Further development of a multimodal pushover analysis procedure for seismic assessment of bridges

An improvement is first suggested to the modal pushover analysis (MPA) procedure for bridges initially proposed by the writers (Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2006; 35 (11):1269–1293), the key idea being that the deformed shape of the structure responding inelastically to the considered earthquake level is used in lieu of the elastic mode shape. The proposed MPA procedure is then verified by applying it to two actual bridges. The first structure is the Krystallopigi bridge, a 638 m‐long multi‐span bridge, with significant curvature in plan, unequal pier heights, and different types of pier‐to‐deck connections. The second structure is a 100 m‐long three‐span overpass bridge, typical in modern motorway construction in Europe, which, although ostensibly a regular structure, is found to exhibit a rather unsymmetric response in the transverse direction, mainly due to torsional irregularity. The bridges are assessed using response spectrum, ‘standard’ pushover (SPA), and MPA, and finally using non‐linear response history analysis (NL‐RHA) for a number of spectrum‐compatible motions. The MPA provided a good estimate of the maximum inelastic deck displacement for several earthquake intensities. The SPA on the other hand could not predict well the inelastic deck displacements of bridges wherever the contribution of the first mode to the response of the bridge was relatively low. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical uncertainty parameters influencing seismic performance of bridges using Lasso regression

Recent efforts of regional risk assessment of structures often pose a challenge in dealing with the potentially variable uncertain input parameters. The source of uncertainties can be either epistemic or aleatoric. This article identifies uncertain variables exhibiting strongest influences on the seismic demand of bridge components through various regression techniques such as linear, stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net regressions. The statistical results indicate that Lasso regression is the most effective one in predicting the demand model as it has the lowest mean square error and absolute error. As the sensitivity study identifies more than 1 significant variable, a multiparameter fragility model using Lasso regression is suggested in this paper. The proposed fragility methodology is able to identify the relative impact of each uncertain input variable and level of treatment needed for these variables in the estimation of seismic demand models and fragility curves. Thus, the proposed approach helps bridge owners to spend their resources judiciously (e.g., data collection, field investigations, and censoring) in the generation of a more reliable database for regional risk assessment. This proposed approach can be applicable to other structures.     

地震现场建筑物安全性鉴定的数值方法研究及应用软件开发

本文首先简要介绍了地震现场建筑物安全性鉴定辅助决策系统的定义、用途及发展现状,并阐释了将其应用于地震现场中的作用、方法及意义。此外,还介绍了此辅助系统的功能和设计分析及该系统的层次结构,重点介绍了该系统的计算模型及其理论根据以及模型算法分析。深入研究了辅助系统的功能、业务流程和总体设计,讨论了系统的需求、数据的采集与管理、模型计算、结果输出、查询、统计和分析等功能,并简要介绍了辅助系统的界面设计方法及界面框图,同时对系统的进一步扩展提出了看法。     

Probabilistic seismic loss assessment of aging bridges using a component‐level cost estimation approach

Deteriorating highway bridges in the United States and worldwide have demonstrated susceptibility to damage in earthquake events, with considerable economic consequences due to repair or replacement. Current seismic loss assessment approaches for these critical elements of the transportation network neglect the effects of aging and degradation on the loss estimate. However, the continued aging and deterioration of bridge infrastructure could not only increase susceptibility to seismic damage, but also have a significant impact on these economic losses. Furthermore, the contribution of individual aging components to system‐level losses, correlations between these components, and uncertainty modeling in the risk assessment and repair modeling are all crucial considerations to enhance the accuracy and confidence in bridge loss estimates. In this paper, a new methodology for seismic loss assessment of aging bridges is introduced based on the non‐homogeneous Poisson process. Statistical moments of seismic losses can be efficiently estimated, such as the expected value and variance. The approach is unique in its account for time‐varying seismic vulnerability, uncertainty in component repair, and the contribution of multiple correlated aging components. A representative case study is presented with two fundamentally distinct highway bridges to demonstrate the effects of corrosion deterioration of different bridge components on the seismic losses. Using the proposed model, a sensitivity study is also conducted to assess the effect of parameter variations on the expected seismic losses. The results reveal that the seismic losses estimated by explicitly considering the effects of deterioration of bridge components is significantly higher than that found by assuming time‐invariant structural reliability. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

工业企业震害预测信息系统建设

大型工业企业的地震灾害具有经济损失高、破坏性强、次生灾害突出、受影响范围广等特点。依据大型工业企业的生产特点，结合工业企业防震减灾的需求，分析了工业企业的震害预测信息系统结构和特征，详细阐述了使用地理信息系统应用软件ArcView为开发平台，建立工业企业GIS震害预测信息系统的基本方法和步骤，并阐明了系统的主要功能和特点。