Inter-event times between the moderate-large earthquakes in Iran

Persian territory, which is dividable into major seismotectonic provinces, always suffers from damages of moderate and large earthquakes from ancient era to modern time. Therefore, temporal prediction of earthquake occurrence in this kind of area is an important topic. For this purpose, 628 moderate-large (5.5 ≤M_S≤ 8.2) earthquakes occurred in Persia during the period from 400 B.C. to 2015 C.E. were used. Considering the magnitudes of events preceding main shocks and the annual seismic moment release in seismic source areas in the provinces, we calibrated equations predicting inter-event time of occurrence of moderate and large earthquakes (M_W>5.5) in Iran. In each source area, inter-event times between moderate and large shocks with magnitudes equal to or larger than a certain cut-off magnitude (M_W5.5) were calculated. The inter-event times between the earthquakes were used to compute the relationships using multiple regression technique. Calculated relationships express the basic idea of the time predictable model predicting the occurrence time of the future main shock in a certain seismogen area. However, despite of unavoidable scatter in observations and uncertainties in the results, occurrence times of main shocks during the next years and decades in some source areas in Iran were determined.     

On the relation of moderate-short term anomaly of earth resistivity to earthquake

IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi…     

Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismograph Network

By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (lo-cal magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes MS and MS7, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: 1 As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, local magnitude ML can be a preferable scale; In case M<4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5MS, i.e., MS underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M>6.0, MS>mB>mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so MS is a preferable scale for deter-mining magnitudes of such events (6.08.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in MS, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; 2 In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ML and MS, and thus there is no need to convert be-tween the two magnitudes in practice; 3 Although MS and MS7 are both surface wave magnitudes, MS is in general greater than MS7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; 4 mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB≥4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.     

Homogenization of Earthquake Catalog for Northeast India and Adjoining Region

A catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region for the period 1897–2009 with 4,497 earthquakes events is compiled for homogenization to moment magnitude M _w,GCMT in the magnitude range 3–8.7. Relations for conversion of m _b and M _s magnitudes to M _w,GCMT are derived using three different methods, namely, linear standard regression, inverted standard regression (ISR) and orthogonal standard regression (OSR), for different magnitude ranges based on events data for the catalog period 1976–2006. The OSR relations for M _s to M _w,GCMT conversion derived in this paper have significantly lower errors in regression parameters compared to the relations reported in other studies. Since the number of events with magnitude ≥7 for this region is scanty, we, therefore, considered whole India region to obtain the regression relationships between M _w,GCMT and M _s,ISC. A relationship between M _w,GCMT and M _w,NEIC is also obtained based on 17 events for the range 5.2 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6.6. A unified homogeneous catalog prepared using the conversion relations derived in this paper can serve as a reference catalog for seismic hazard assessment studies in northeast India and the adjoining region.     

Histortical seismicity of the offshore Fujian-Guangdong region

The earthquakes offshore Fujian and Guangdong Provinces concentrated along the two segments near Nan’ao in the south and Quanzhou in the north of the off coast fault, which is very active since the late Pleistocene. In 1918 and 1906, two earthquakes with magnitudes 7.3 and 6.1 respectively occurred in the south and the north regions. With the instrumentally determined seismic parameters of these two earthquakes as standards, the author evaluated the parameters of the historical earthquakes by comparing their macroseismic materials with consideration of the geological background. As a result, chronological tables of historical earthquakes of the south and the north regions were compiled. The seismic activity of the two regions synchronized basically, and their strongest recorded earthquakes were both aroundM _s 7.3. Seismic activity usually intensified before the occurrence of strong events. Aftershocks were frequent, but strong aftershocks usually occurred one to several years after the main shock. Two high tides of seismic activity occurred since the late 15th century. Around 1600, eight earthquakes each with magnitudes over 4.3 occurred in both of the two regions. The magnitude of the strongest shock in the south region is 6.7, that in the north region is 7.5. The second high tide occurred at the early 20th century. Among the 18 earthquakes occurred in the south region, one was of magnitude 7.3; whilst only two earthquakes with magnitudes 6.1 and 5.5 respectively occurred in the north region. Further, medium to strong earthquakes never occurred since 1942. Whether this is the “mitigation effect” of strong shocks, or a big earthquake is brewing in the north region is worth intensive study. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 505–515, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

The 2008 West Bohemia earthquake swarm in the light of the WEBNET network

A swarm of earthquakes of magnitudes up to M _L = 3.8 stroke the region of West Bohemia/Vogtland (border area between Czechia and Germany) in October 2008. It occurred in the Novy Kostel focal zone, where also all recent earthquake swarms (1985/1986, 1997, and 2000) took place, and was striking by a fast sequence of macroseismically observed earthquakes. We present the basic characteristics of this swarm based on the observations of a local network WEBNET (West Bohemia seismic network), which has been operated in the epicentral area, on the Czech territory. The swarm was recorded by 13 to 23 permanent and mobile WEBNET stations surrounding the swarm epicenters. In addition, a part of the swarm was also recorded by strong-motion accelerometers, which represent the first true accelerograms of the swarm earthquakes in the region. The peak ground acceleration reached 0.65 m/s². A comparison with previous earthquake swarms indicates that the total seismic moments released during the 1985/1986 and 2008 swarms are similar, of about 4E16 Nm, and that they represent the two largest swarms that occurred in the West Bohemia/ Vogtland region since the M _L = 5.0 swarm of 1908. Characteristic features of the 2008 swarm are its short duration (4 weeks) and rapidity and, consequently, the fastest seismic moment release compared to previous swarms. Up to 25,000 events in the magnitude range of 0.5 < M _L < 3.8 were detected using an automatic picker. A total of nine swarm phases can be distinguished in the swarm, five of them exceeding the magnitude level of 2.5. The magnitude–frequency distribution of the complete 2008 swarm activity shows a b value close to 1. The swarm hypocenters fall precisely on the same fault portion of the Novy Kostel focal zone that was activated by the 2000 swarm (M _L ≤ 3.2) in a depth interval from 6 to 11 km and also by the 1985/1986 swarm (M _L ≤ 4.6). The steeply dipping fault planes of the 2000 and 2008 swarms seem to be identical considering the location error of about 100 m. Furthermore, focal mechanisms of the 2008 swarm are identical with those of the 2000 swarm, both matching an average strike of 170° and dip of 80° of the activated fault segment. An overall upward migration of activity is observed with first events at the bottom and last events at the top of the of the activated fault patch. Similarities in the activated fault area and in the seismic moments released during the three largest recent swarms enable to estimate the seismic potential of the focal zone. If the whole segment of the fault plane was activated simultaneously, it would represent an earthquake of M _L ~5. This is in good agreement with the estimates of the maximum magnitudes of earthquakes that occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland region in the past.     

Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes (M _L < 0). We identify earthquakes using a conventional short-term average/long-term average trigger combined with sliding-window frequency-wavenumber and polarisation analyses. The resulting earthquake catalogue consists of 14,530 earthquakes between 19 October 2008 and 18 March 2009 with magnitudes in the range of − 1.2 ≤ M _L ≤ 2.7. The small-aperture seismic array substantially lowers the detection threshold to about M _c = − 0.4, when compared to the regional networks operating in West Bohemia (M _c > 0.0). In the course of this work, the main temporal features (frequency–magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based on interevent times) suggest that the swarm earthquake activity of the 2008/2009 swarm terminates by 12 January 2009. During the main phase in our studied swarm period after 19 October, the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter relation decreases from 1.2 to 0.8. This trend is also reflected in the power-law behavior of the seismic moment release. The corresponding total seismic moment release of 1.02×10¹⁷ Nm is equivalent to M _L,max = 5.4.     

An application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model to long-term earthquake prediction in eastern Anatolia

In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurring in eastern Anatolia, this region enclosed within the coordinates of 36^∘–42^∘N, 35^∘–45^∘E has been separated into nine seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria, and a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. This model implies that the magnitude of the preceding main shock which is the largest earthquake during a seismic excitation in a seismogenic source governs the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the expected main shock in this source. The data belonging to both the instrumental period (M_S≥ 5.5) until 2003 and the historical period (I₀≥ 9.0 corresponding to M_S≥ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the analysis. The interevent time between successive main shocks with magnitude equal to or larger than a certain minimum magnitude threshold were considered in each of the nine source regions within the study area. These interevent times as well as the magnitudes of the main shocks have been used to determine the following relations:

Calibration of magnitude scales for earthquakes of the Mediterranean

In order to provide the tools for uniform size determination for Mediterranean earthquakes over the last 50-year period of instrumental seismology, we have regressed the magnitude determinations for 220 earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region over the 1977–1991 period, reported by three international centres, 11 national and regional networks and 101 individual stations and observatories, using seismic moments from the Harvard CMTs. We calibrate M(M₀) regression curves for the magnitude scales commonly used for Mediterranean earthquakes (M_L, M_WA, m_b, M_S, M_LH, M_LV, M_D, M); we also calibrate static corrections or specific regressions for individual observatories and we verify the reliability of the reports of different organizations and observatories. Our analysis shows that the teleseismic magnitudes (m_b, M_S) computed by international centers (ISC, NEIC) provide good measures of earthquake size, with low standard deviations (0.17–0.23), allowing one to regress stable regional calibrations with respect to the seismic moment and to correct systematic biases such as the hypocentral depth for M_S and the radiation pattern for m_b; while m_b is commonly reputed to be an inadequate measure of earthquake size, we find that the ISC m_b is still today the most precise measure to use to regress M_W and M₀ for earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region; few individual observatories report teleseismic magnitudes requiring specific dynamic calibrations (BJI, MOS). Regional surface-wave magnitudes (M_LV, M_LH) reported in Eastern Europe generally provide reliable measures of earthquake size, with standard deviations often in the 0.25–0.35 range; the introduction of a small (±0.1–0.2) static station correction is sometimes required. While the Richter magnitude M_L is the measure of earthquake size most commonly reported in the press whenever an earthquake strikes, we find that M_L has not been computed in the European-Mediterranean in the last 15 years; the reported local magnitudes M_WA and M_L do not conform to the Richter formula and are of poor quality and little use, with few exceptions requiring ad hoc calibrations similar to the M_S regression (EMSC, ATH). The duration magnitude M_D used by most seismic networks confirms that its use requires accurate station calibrations and should be restricted only to events with low seismic moments.     

Fracture characteristics of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm inferred from source spectra

Broadband P and S waves source spectra of 12 MS5.0 earthquakes of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm recorded at 13 GDSN stations have been analyzed. Rupture size and static stress drop of these earthquakes have been estimated through measuring the corner frequency of the source spectra. Direction of rupture propagation of the earthquake faulting has also been inferred from the azimuthal variation of the corner frequency. The main results are as follows: ①The rupture size of MS6.0 strong earthquakes is in the range of 10～20 km, while that of MS=5.0～5.5 earthquakes is 6～10 km.② The static stress drop of the swarm earthquakes is rather low, being of the order of 0.1 MPa. This implies that the deformation release rate in the source region may be low. ③ Stress drop of the earthquakes appears to be proportional to their seismic moment, and also to be dependent on their focal mechanism. The stress drop of normal faulting earthquakes is usually lower than that of strike-slip type earthquakes. ④ For each MS6.0 earthquake there exists an apparent azimuthal variation of the corner frequencies. Azimuthally variation pattern of corner frequencies of different earthquakes shows that the source rupture pattern of the Jiashi earthquake swarm is complex and no uniform rupture expanding direction exists.     

Physical background on estimating b value

The G-R relation lgN=a-bM (1954) is an empirical formula used widely in the seismicity research. But the linearity of b curves has great difference in different time and space domains. An interested question in this paper is that in how large a space-time-strength domain the b value has certain physical connotation. This study told us that we can get optimal statistical results of b value in those space-time domains which can develop correspondent strong shocks with magnitude interval (M _s≥8.5, 8.0≤M _s<8.5, 7.0≤M _s<8.0). Thus, the possible seismogenic areas in which strong shocks with different magnitude intervals develop can be inferred in different regions of the mainland of China. Finally, some new problems are proposed, such as the delimitation of seismic province, the seismicity parameter determination in seismic hazard analysis and in earthquake predictions by using b value. Contribution No. 96A-0074, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

The moment magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> and the energy magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>e</Subscript>: common roots and differences

Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales for moment magnitude M _w and energy magnitude M _e is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M _w and M _e calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the contributions of the physically defined measurement parameters seismic moment M ₀ and radiated seismic energy E _S, the role of the constants in the classical Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–energy relationship. Further, it is shown that M _w and M _e are linked via the parameter Θ = log(E _S/M ₀), and the formula for M _e can be written as M _e = M _w + (Θ + 4.7)/1.5. This relationship directly links M _e with M _w via their common scaling to classical magnitudes and, at the same time, highlights the reason why M _w and M _e can significantly differ. In fact, Θ is assumed to be constant when calculating M _w. However, variations over three to four orders of magnitude in stress drop Δσ (as well as related variations in rupture velocity V _R and seismic wave radiation efficiency η _R) are responsible for the large variability of actual Θ values of earthquakes. As a result, for the same earthquake, M _e may sometimes differ by more than one magnitude unit from M _w. Such a difference is highly relevant when assessing the actual damage potential associated with a given earthquake, because it expresses rather different static and dynamic source properties. While M _w is most appropriate for estimating the earthquake size (i.e., the product of rupture area times average displacement) and thus the potential tsunami hazard posed by strong and great earthquakes in marine environs, M _e is more suitable than M _w for assessing the potential hazard of damage due to strong ground shaking, i.e., the earthquake strength. Therefore, whenever possible, these two magnitudes should be both independently determined and jointly considered. Usually, only M _w is taken as a unified magnitude in many seismological applications (ShakeMap, seismic hazard studies, etc.) since procedures to calculate it are well developed and accepted to be stable with small uncertainty. For many reasons, procedures for E _S and M _e calculation are affected by a larger uncertainty and are currently not yet available for all global earthquakes. Thus, despite the physical importance of E _S in characterizing the seismic source, the use of M _e has been limited so far to the detriment of quicker and more complete rough estimates of both earthquake size and strength and their causal relationships. Further studies are needed to improve E _S estimations in order to allow M _e to be extensively used as an important complement to M _w in common seismological practice and its applications.     

Characteristics of foreshock and its identi-fication

Introduction The characteristics of generalized foreshock and direct foreshock and their identification,as well as their application to medium and short-term prediction of strong earthquake is a major study objective in seismometry both in China and abroad.China has made many short-term and imminent earthquake predictions.Among the ones with clear hazard-mitigating effect and social manifestation,direct foreshock has made an obvious contribution,for example,the MS=7.2Menglian earthquake occu…     

Differences between magnitudes of Taiwan earthquakes from catalogs of Taiwan and Beijing

IntroductionTaiwanlocatedinthecollisionboundalbetweentheEurasianandthePhilippineSeaplatesisoneofhighseismicityregionsintheworld.HundredsofearthquakeswithM25occurredperyearandmorethan40withM27since1900.Amongtheseevents,shalloweventswithdepthofseveraltensofkilometersandintermediate-deepeventswithdepthof100-200kinexistwhichrepresentsacharacterofthesubductionzone.ThemagnitudesofTaiwaneventslistedinthecatalogofChineseearthquakesaretakenfromsomehistoricaldocumentsandGutenbergandRichter'sworks(19…     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India

Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M _w = 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001).     

The 20-second regional magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis></Subscript>(20R) for the Russian Far East

A new modified magnitude scale M _S (20R) is elaborated. It permits us to extend the teleseismic magnitude scale M _S (20) to the regional epicenter distances. The data set used in this study contains digital records at 12 seismic stations of 392 earthquakes that occured in the northwest Pacific Ocean in the period of 1993–2008. The new scale is based on amplitudes of surface waves of a narrow range of the periods (16–25 s) close to the period of 20 s, for distances of 80–3000 km. The digital Butterworth filter is used for processing. On the basis of the found regional features concerning distance dependence for seismic wave attenuation, all the stations of the region have been subdivided into two groups, namely, “continental” and “island-arc.” For each group of stations, its own calibration function is proposed. Individual station corrections are used to compensate for the local features.     

2015年11月23日青海祁连MS5.2地震震源机制解及发震构造初步探讨

采用CAP（Cut and Paste）方法反演了2015年11月23日青海祁连M_S5.2主震的震源机制解,其最佳双力偶解：节面Ⅰ走向109°、倾角58°、滑动角21°,节面Ⅱ走向8°、倾角72°、滑动角146°,矩震级M_W5.16,矩心震源深度约为9 km。结合震区的活动构造,判定发震断层面为节面Ⅰ,推测托勒山北缘活动断裂中段为此次地震的发震断裂。     

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (MS=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence"

IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province…     

Synthesis of magnitude and focal mechanism computations for the M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in France for the period 1995–2000

This paper proposes a synthesis of thestudies made in terms of source parametersevaluation for the last earthquakes oflocal magnitude greater than 4.5 whichoccurred in or nearby France during thelast five years. Focal mechanisms andseismic moments have been computed for thethree most important events, largely feltby the population: St Paul de Fenouillet(February 18^th 1996, M_L 5.6),Annecy-Epagny (July 15^th 1996, M_L5.2) and St-Béat (October 4^th1999, M_L 4.8). These focal mechanismshave been obtained either by regionalmoment tensor inversion or from firstmotion polarities and are compared withcomplementary studies made on theseearthquakes. In addition, for the otherearthquakes of local magnitude greater than4.5 which occurred nearby French borderssince the beginning of the recording ofbroadband data by the RéNaSS(Réseau National de SurveillanceSismique, French Seismological Survey) inmid–1995, several magnitude calculationsconcerning the following earthquakes arepresented: Pamplona (25/2/1996, M_L4.7), Aoste (31/03/1996, M_L 4.6),Imperia (24/2/1997, M_L 4.5),Barcelonette (31/10/1997, M_L 4.8),Pamplona (27/10/1998, M_L 4.9), andBonifacio (26/4/2000, M_L 4.5). Localmagnitudes are usually higher thanthe M_b magnitudes reported by the PDE(Preliminary Determination of Epicenters),while the extension of the Msz scale toregional magnitudes and the Mw magnitudesderived from seismic moments give smallervalues. The relative importance of thevarious earthquakes in terms of surfacewave magnitude or seismic moment does notalways agree with that implied by localmagnitudes.