Generalization of the logistic law of distribution in the statistical analysis of wind-direction dynamics

The statistical regularity in the chaotic dynamics of wind direction is established. The distribution density of the increment in a wind-direction angle is approximated by generalizing the logistic law of distribution. Parameters of the approximation function are calculated by the least square method using the experimental data. The conformity between the function proposed and the meteorological data is verified by the Pearson’s chi-squared test and the Kolmogorov test.     

Computation of Diffraction of Irregular Waves Behind Double Jetty

The coefficient of deffraction of regular waves behind the double jetty has been computed in this paper at first by using the singularity distribution method. The model tests conducted for diffraction of irregular waves with a unidirectional frequency spectrum have confirmed good agreement between the data measured in experiments and the results computed by the singularity distribution method plus the linear superposition method for the energy of component waves in the directional frequency spectra. Therefore, this technique for component waves in the directional spectra has been further used to compute diffraction of irregular waves of multidirection, including the employment of a directional distribution function of the cos2 type, as well as the Bretschneider-Misuyann frequency spectrum.     

PAssive COastal TOMography: an Innovative Approach for the Remote Monitoring of Sea Temperature

Abstract. This paper describes a new Ocean Acoustic Tomography (OAT) methodology - a passive tomography - presently in an advanced development phase. This technique has been developed for long-term, extensive, remote monitoring of the seawater temperature spatial distribution, which is estimated from the received noise emitted from ships of opportunity. To test the passive tomographic processor under controlled conditions, the components of the naval noise from different kinds of vessels was analysed and realistic naval noise was simulated. The feasibility of the proposed methodology was confirmed by test-runs on semi-synthetic data; its capability to resolve temperature profiles will be better assessed with the use of real acoustic and environmental data collected during the INTIMATE00 experiment performed in October 2000 in the Atlantic Ocean off the Portuguese coast. An analysis of the space and time variability of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition of the sound speed (SSP) in the Mediterranean Sea has been carried out to identify areas where acoustic tomography can be successfully applied. Results from simulations in the South Adriatic Sea, which was identified as a region with a high sound speed variability associated with the seasonal cycle and with the main oceanographic processes, are reported.     

台风的海面气压场和风场模拟计算

本文采用台风中心资料、地面天气图及部分台站的观测资料，使用改进的藤田气压模型和Myers气压模型，对1996年9月9日11时在广东吴川——湛江登陆的9615号(Sally)台风海面风场进行了数值计算，求得台风域内的风速分布，并和实测资料进行了比较。结果表明，改进后的台风气压模型对台风海面气压场和风场的模拟计算是可取的。     

基于GIS的广州市海域使用监管系统设计与应用

针对广州海域监管工作对海洋监测数据从人工到计算机智能化管理的实际需求,从总体结构、数据库构建、功能应用等几个角度设计开发了广州市海域使用监管系统。系统在整合现有的监测设备及数据基础上,利用先进的计算机软件技术和数据库管理技术,实现了海面、岸站一体化海域综合监管,极大地提高了海域监测智能化程度并有效降低了管理成本。目前,该系统已投入到广州海域监管应用当中,为海域监管评估提供了决策支持,对海洋可持续发展具有重要意义。     

黄海、渤海盐度准三维数值预报模式

黄海、渤海盐度的垂直结构具有典型的自模性，而其水平分布又受平流、水平扩散效应及径流等因素的影响。本文根据黄海、渤海实测资料拟合了盐度垂直剖面的自模函数，并结合描述表、底层盐度及上均匀层厚度这３个特征量水平分布的方程，给出盐度三维结构的准三维模式。在模式中，综合考虑了海面风和热输入的强迫作用以及流场的平流、侧向混合及底层混合的影响因素，同时还考虑了径流、蒸发及降水的作用，较客观地反映了盐度的三维分布及其变化的物理过程。试报结果分析表明，模式的功能较好，结果令人满意。     

逻辑斯蒂增长模型在集装箱运量长期预测中的应用

多因素动态生成系数法是目前集装箱吞吐量预测方法中最为成熟、应用最为广泛的预测方法。该办法首先确定外贸年增长率预测外贸量,然后通过生成系数得到集装箱吞吐量预测值。然而,在进行中长期集装箱吞吐量预测时,未来外贸年增长率的确定经常缺乏依据,导致长期预测结果精度较差。论文通过利用逻辑斯蒂增长模型进行中长期经济增长预测,再利用经济增长与外贸量的回归分析进行外贸量预测来解决这一问题,最终完成了天津港2005~2020年集装箱吞吐量预测的任务。从原理和结果上看,逻辑斯蒂增长模型是更为适宜和先进的方法,可以用来改进多因素动态生成系数法,提高中长期集装箱预测的精度。     

Assimilation of TOPEX Altimeter Data in a Reduced-Gravity Model of the Northwestern Indian Ocean

This study deals with the assimilation of TOPEX altimeter-derived sea level variability in a reduced-gravity model of the northwestern Indian Ocean. The assimilation has been done using variational assimilation method with adjoint technique. A cost function representing the misfit between the model and the data is minimized with the model equations acting as constraints. The initial conditions of the model are used as control parameters and the best-fit initial conditions are determined as a result of minimization carried out using a variable-storage quasi-Newton method. Experiment has been done with 10 days' cycle-averaged data of TOPEX. Assimilation for 10 days and 20 days has been performed and it has been seen that 20 days' assimilation of satellite data provides better results.     

FY-1C/1D全球海上气溶胶业务反演算法研究

介绍了基于FY-1C/1D气象卫星数据进行全球海洋气溶胶反演的业务算法,主要论述了海上气溶胶反演的单通道算法基本原理.该算法的核心内容是建立气溶胶光学厚度查算表,该查算表基于6S辐射传输模式,在假定气溶胶模式条件下,卫星的表观反射率是卫星观测几何(太阳卫星角)和气溶胶光学厚度函数,最终由卫星观测表观反射率反演出气溶胶光学厚度.业务反演过程中还考虑到数据质量检验、云检测处理和太阳耀斑区去除等.利用该算法对FY-1C卫星自2001年起的部分资料进行反演试验,并在FY-1D卫星发射后投入业务应用,自2002年8月开始能实时得到每天和每月的全球气溶胶光学厚度产品.从两颗卫星两年多连续反演结果分析可以非常清晰地发现全球气溶胶主要排放源地和全球海上气溶胶分布的季节变化,与国外卫星反演结果十分接近.     

基于Logistic回归的海州湾赤潮环境要素阈值研究

以海州湾2004-2006年赤潮实测资料和同期的水文气象资料为研究对象,通过构建多元logistic回归模型,从各种环境要素中提取出对赤潮暴发有显著影响的无机氮(DIN)、pH值、盐度、水温、硅酸盐和风速等环境要素.根据样本分布状况确定每个环境要素阈值的遍历范围和遍历步长,采用含哑变量的logistic回归模型对有显著影响的环境要素值进行遍历,根据回归的结果建立风险度和相对风险度等指标,并依据这些指标筛查出与赤潮暴发显著相关的各环境要素的阈值分别为:DIN:0.09 mg/L;pH值:8.09;盐度:28.4;水温:25.6 ℃;硅酸盐:0.24 mg/L;风速:3.2 m/s,为在该海域控制赤潮的危害提供一种简便有效的手段.     

On the measurement of directional wave spectra at the southern Brazilian coast

The detailed reconstruction of the directional spectrum of wind waves from measurements of the wave field is an essential requirement for several applications, including the numerical modeling of wave evolution. Three reconstruction techniques that provide estimates of the directional distribution function D(f,θ), given the one-dimensional frequency spectrum, are compared using data from a coastal locality at the southern Brazilian coast. The techniques are the maximum entropy method (MEM), the Fourier Expansion Method using a cos² type function (FEM_cos) and the Fourier Expansion Method using a sech type function (FEM_sech). The main patterns of the wave climate at the study site are qualitatively assessed. Three main sea states, including swell, transition between local sea and swell, and directionally bimodal wind sea, are identified. Time series from three events associated with the main sea states provide test cases for inter comparison of the three reconstruction techniques. Maximum entropy estimates of D(f,θ) provide results that are more consistent than those obtained from the two FEM techniques in all cases considered.     

Modified Rayleigh distribution of wave heights in transitional water depths

This paper concerns the calculation of wave height exceedance probabilities for nonlinear irregular waves in transitional water depths, and a Transformed Rayleigh method is first proposed for carrying out the calculation. In the proposed Transformed Rayleigh method, the transformation model is chosen to be a monotonic exponential function, calibrated such that the first three moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new method has been applied for calculating the wave height exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the Poseidon platform. It is demonstrated in this case that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than those by using the conventional Rayleigh wave height distribution model. The proposed new method has been further applied for calculating the total horizontal loads on a generic jacket, and its accuracy has once again been substantiated. The research findings gained from this study demonstrate that the proposed Transformed Rayleigh model can be utilized as a promising alternative to the well-established nonlinear wave height distribution models.     

Modified Rayleigh Distribution of Wave Heights in Transitional Water Depths

This paper concerns the calculation of wave height exceedance probabilities for nonlinear irregular waves in transitional water depths, and a Transformed Rayleigh method is first proposed for carrying out the calculation. In the proposed Transformed Rayleigh method, the transformation model is chosen to be a monotonic exponential function, calibrated such that the first three moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new method has been applied for calculating the wave height exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the Poseidon platform. It is demonstrated in this case that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than those by using the conventional Rayleigh wave height distribution model. The proposed new method has been further applied for calculating the total horizontal loads on a generic jacket, and its accuracy has once again been substantiated. The research findings gained from this study demonstrate that the proposed Transformed Rayleigh model can be utilized as a promising alternative to the well-established nonlinear wave height distribution models.     

Probabilistic analysis of the DoB in axially-loaded tubular KT-joints of offshore structures

The degree of bending (DoB) characterizing the through-the-thickness stress distribution has a profound effect on the fatigue behavior of tubular joints commonly found in steel offshore structures and the determination of DoB values is essential for improving the accuracy of fatigue life estimation. Probability density functions of the involved random variables are necessary for the fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures. The objective of present research was the derivation of probability density function (PDF) for the DoB in tubular KT-joints commonly found in jacket-type offshore platforms. A total of 162 finite element (FE) analyses were carried out on 81 FE models of KT-joints subjected to two types of axial loading. Generated FE models were validated using experimental data, previous FE results, and available parametric equations. Based on the results of parametric FE study, a sample database was prepared for the DoB values and density histograms were generated for respective samples based on the Freedman-Diaconis rule. Thirteen theoretical PDFs were fitted to the developed histograms and the maximum likelihood (ML) method was applied to evaluate the parameters of fitted PDFs. In each case, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, the Generalized Extreme Value model was proposed as the governing probability distribution function for the DoB. After substituting the values of estimated parameters, six fully defined PDFs were presented for the DoB in tubular KT-joints subjected to two types of axial loading.     

Optimal tonal detectors based on the power spectrum

The detection of tonals embedded in noise is an important sonar function and the traditional power spectrum analysis method has been widely used for this purpose. Wagstaff et al. (1997) proposed the WISPR (Wagstaff's Integration Silencing PRocessor) family processors, which perform a nonlinear integration or combination of the power spectrum observations. In this paper, we analyze the statistical property of the power spectrum observations and develop novel tonal detectors by optimally integrating the spectrum observations. The optimal detectors are derived by using the method of maximum likelihood hypothesis test. The results from simulations and real sea trial data have shown that the proposed detectors are promising in detecting tonals     

中国海岸带及近海科学数据平台研究与开发

基于海洋数据的多样性和时空复杂性的特点,采用目前先进的大型空间数据库管理软件——Oracle9i的ArcSDE,ArcGIS桌面系统,完成了海岸带及近海科学数据平台实体的装载和组织工作,并在ArcObject组件的基础上开发了基于C/S的数据平台的前端管理系统,当前该系统可以实现面向海洋用户的遥感数据无缝拼接、多源数据多种快速查询、提取、影像数据的装载以及影像元数据的管理和修改等多种功能.该系统主要服务对象是涉及国家主管海岸带和近海专业的科研调查部门或个人,自其建立以来已经陆续开展一些应用服务,达到了理想的效果,满足了用户的需求.     

A New Maximum Entropy Probability Function for the Surface Elevation of Nonlinear Sea Waves

Based on the maximum entropy principle a new probability density function （PDF） f（x） for the surface elevation of nonlinear sea waves, X, is derived through performing a coordinate transform of X and solving a variation problem subject to three constraint conditions of f（ x ）. Compared with the maximum entropy PDFs presented previously, the new PDF has the following merits： （1） it has four parameters to be determined and hence can give more refined fit to observed data and has wider suitability for nonlinear waves in different conditions; （2） these parameters are expressed in terms of distribution moments of X in a relatively simple form and hence are easy to be determined from observed data; （3） the PDF is free of the restriction of weak nonlinearity and possible to be used for sea waves in complicated conditions, such as those in shallow waters with complicated topography; and （4） the PDF is simple in form and hence convenient for theoretical and practical uses. l.aboratory wind-wave experiments have been conducted to test the competence of the new PDF for the surface elevation of nonlinear waves. The experimental results manifest that the new PDF gives somewhat better fit to the laboratory wind-wave data than the well-known Gram-Charlier PDF and beta PDF.     

Distribution functions of a 3-cm radar signal backscattered by the sea surface at small angles of inclination

The dependence of the distribution function of a backscattered radar signal on the duration of sampling has been experimentally determined, with the signal normalized to the median value. Analysis of the data indicates that a two-scale statistical model may be applied in the conditions being considered and that an essential contribution to the statistics is from the signal variations induced by swell. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Quantitative experimental determinations for monitoring hydrophysical parameters in the North Atlantic

The possibility of tracking the change in large-scale hydrophysical parameters in the North Atlantic on the basis of density distribution measurements obtained from two scientific research vessels has been investigated. The monitoring scheme uses a numerical dynamic-stochastic model with variable exchange coefficients. An accurate monitoring has been obtained and at the same time a process of reducing the ambiguity in describing the state of the ocean has been presented by models using the observed data.UDK 551.001.573 (261.5)     

快速衰落信道环境下SRC检测器的性能分析

分段拷贝相关器是高斯白噪声背景下,快速衰落水声信道中,对应最大似然比准则的最佳接收机,其输出服从χ2分布。推导出有信号时接收机输出端的概率密度函数和检测概率的解析表达式,计算机仿真结果验证了所获得结果的正确性。最后通过计算无信号时接收机输出的概率密度函数,在给定虚警概率的情况下,求出了接收机的检测门限。