北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

Isopycnal displacements within the Cape Basin thermocline as revealed by the Hydrographic Data Archive

The transfer of upper kilometer water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic, the Agulhas leakage, is believed to be accomplished primarily through meso-scale eddy processes. There have been various studies investigating eddies of the “Cape Basin Cauldron” from specific data sets. The hydrographic data archive acquired during the last century within the Cape Basin region of the South Atlantic provides additional insight into the distribution and water mass properties of the Cape Basin eddies. Eddies are identified by mid-thermocline isopycnal depth anomalies relative to the long-term mean. Positive depth anomalies (the reference isopycnal is deeper than the long-term mean isopycnal depth) mark the presence of anticyclonic eddies; negative anomalies mark cyclonic eddies. Numerous eddies are identified in the whole region; the larger isopycnal displacements are attributed to the energetic eddies characteristic of the Cape Basin and indicate that there is a 2:1 anticyclone/cyclone ratio. Smaller displacements of the less energetic features are almost equally split between anticyclones and cyclones (1.4:1 ratio). Potential temperature, salinity and oxygen relationships at thermocline and intermediate levels within each eddy reveal their likely origin. The eddy core water is not solely drawn from Indian Ocean: tropical and subtropical South Atlantic water are also present. Anticyclones and cyclones carrying Agulhas Water properties are identified throughout the Cape Basin. Anticyclones with Agulhas Water characteristics show a predominant northwest dispersal, whereas the cyclones are identified mainly along the western margin of the African continent, possibly related to their origin as shear eddies at the boundary between the Agulhas axis and Africa. Cyclones and anticyclones carrying pure South Atlantic origin water are identified south of 30°S and west of the Walvis Ridge. Tropical Atlantic water at depth is found for cyclones north of the Walvis Ridge, west of 10°E and for stations deeper than 4000 m, and a few anticyclones with the same characteristics are found south of the ridge.     

Spatial distributions of tropical cyclones and gravity anomalies

Spatial distributions of the beginnings and most intense stages of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean are compared with gravity anomalies (GAs) in the zone of action of cyclones. The possible influence of GAs on hurricanes that reached land in the Gulf of Mexico region and in the southeastern part of China is considered. The relation of the formal feedback between some characteristics of the intensity of TCs and spatially averaged GAs is shown. It is suggested that GAs can be regarded as a factor affecting the life cycle of a TC to a certain extent.     

Some interrelations between the stages of development of tropical cyclones

Energy interdependence between groups of tropical cyclones separated by time intervals of cyclonic “calm” is investigated. A linear negative interrelation between the total powers of such groups is revealed. The groups consist of real tropical cyclones that occurred within the active cyclonic zone in the northwestern Pacific. The corresponding regression relationships are obtained. Interrelation between the stages of development of seasonal cyclonic activity is revealed. Semidiurnal total powers (power elements) are chosen as “operational” objects with the use of which the sought-for interrelation is established. Regressions were obtained separately for each season: the number of elements and their powers are related by a negative power relation. The result obtained is supposed to serve as a certain basis for the probabilistic prediction of cyclonic activity during the season.     

Variation in the intensity of tropical cyclones in connection with global warming

In connection with global warming, the growth in the intensity of tropical hurricanes is predicted. The onset of this intensification is partially illustrated by the western Atlantic cyclonic zone [1]. It is noted in [1]that, due to global warming, the sea-surface temperature (SST) over the entire world has increased by 0.6°C since 1970. Since the SST basically determines the energy of tropical hurricanes, it is inferred that global warming will lead to an enhancement in their intensity. This publication presents a plot of the dynamics of SST annual mean anomalies for the northwestern Atlantic and pays special attention to significant excess mean temperatures since 1994. The anomalies are determined with respect to the mean temperature calculated from SSTs over 1901–1970. The same plot also shows that the SST at the end of the 1940s and during the 1950s exceeded the mean temperature by about 0.3 or even 0.4°C, decreasing gradually to negative anomalies (?0.3°C) in 1973. After that, the temperature started to increase again. Figure 1 shows a detail of this plot, which relates to the period 1950–2000.     

An energetic signature of mutual interaction in a group of tropical cyclones partially collocated in time

During the periods of cyclonic activity, tropical cyclones frequently develop in groups partially coinciding in time. In the “atmosphere–ocean” system, the conditions favoring the development of tropical cyclones are limited. In such setting, a “competition struggle” between tropical cyclones suggesting their possible interrelation is possible. As a result of this study, a regression signature illustrating the energetic impact of a group of tropical cyclones on the development of an individual cyclone in this group has been revealed.     

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its manifestations in the Atlantic-European region

We present a brief survey of the works devoted to the investigation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, i.e., of the quasiperiodic variations of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic with typical time scales of 50–100 yr. This oscillation is a manifestation of the natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. The characteristic scale of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is determined by the speed of the meridional oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. The analyzed oscillation affects various climatic characteristics: air temperature, river discharge in the European and North-American regions, the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, and the parameters of mid-latitude cyclones and anticyclones in the Atlantic-European region. The main mechanism by which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation affects the climatic characteristics of the regions neighboring with the North Atlantic is the atmospheric response to the thermal anomalies in the ocean leading to a shift of the centers of atmospheric action and to the changes in the intensity and predominant directions of propagation of atmospheric cyclones and anticyclones. By using the results of long-term instrumental observations carried out in Eastern Europe and the data array of reconstructed temperature in the Alpine region, it is shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is responsible for a significant part of low-frequency variations of temperature in Europe. This fact confirms the potential predictability of the regional atmospheric manifestations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the decadal-scale. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 69–79, July–August, 2008.     

2004年西北太平洋热带气旋特征

本文通过对2004年西北太平洋热带气旋发生源地、月频数、移动路径、强度等方面的分析,找出2004年西北太平洋热带气旋的特征,并对其大气环流场进行了分析,结果表明:2004年西北太平洋热带气旋偏多、偏强,路径以近、远海转向为多,前期赤道东太平洋海温偏低、西太平洋副高位置偏北、偏东,是2004年西北太平洋热带气旋偏多的主要原因。     

On one possibility of studying the cyclonic regime

The dynamics of some characteristics of a cyclonic situation (cyclonic regime) of the northwestern Pacific cyclonic zone is studied. The characteristics that are considered are the density of cyclonic energy at a point (intensity) and the power over a given area. In the model, the intensity at a point is defined as the sum of all intensities of preceding cyclones, with consideration for their spatial and temporal separation from the given point. Power for a given moment and a given area is defined as the sum of intensities over this area. Cyclonically active seasons are considered. The dynamics of the power was estimated for areas of different size. It is shown that the point values of cyclonic intensity, at the times of their maximum, are statistically related to one another by a negative power-law dependence. Periodicity is observed in the time evolution of the power in different areas.     

ENSO相联系的热带太平洋上层海洋异常环流

本文使用SODA(simple ocean data assimilation)海洋同化资料,系统分析了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)循环中冷暖位相期间热带太平洋上层海洋环流的演变规律,探讨了形成海洋环流异常的新机制。结果表明,在厄尔尼诺成熟期,热带中东太平洋赤道潜流最弱,赤道两侧出现反气旋性环流异常;西太平洋赤道外热带海域出现气旋性环流异常,该区南、北赤道流、棉兰老流、黑潮、新几内亚沿岸潜流及南赤道逆流增强;北赤道逆流区出现异常气旋性环流串,北赤道逆流接近正常。在厄尔尼诺衰退期和拉尼娜发展期,热带中西太平洋赤道潜流达到极强,赤道两侧出现气旋性环流异常;西太平洋赤道外热带海域异常环流减弱,该处主要流场的强度减弱或处于正常状态;北赤道逆流区反转为异常西向流。结果表明, ENSO循环期间的上层海洋环流异常受到热带太平洋温跃层深度异常产生的压强梯度力异常调控,在赤道外热带海洋温跃层深度异常和科里奥利力共同作用产生大尺度海洋环流异常,而在赤道海域,海洋温跃层深度异常和Gill效应造成赤道潜流异常以及关于赤道对称的气旋或反气旋性环流异常。     

South China Sea wave characteristics during typhoon Muifa passage in winter 2004

The responses to tropical cyclones of ocean wave characteristics in deep water of the western Atlantic Ocean have been investigated extensively, but not the regional seas in the western Pacific such as the South China Sea (SCS), due to a lack of observational and modeling studies there. Since monsoon winds prevail in the SCS but not in the western Atlantic Ocean, the SCS is unique for investigating wave characteristics during a typhoon’s passage in conjunction with steady monsoon wind forcing. To do so, the Wavewatch-III (WW3) is used to study the response of the SCS to Typhoon Muifa (2004), which passed over not only deep water but also the shallow shelf of the SCS. The WW3 model is forced by the NASA QuikSCAT winds and tropical cyclone wind profile model during Typhoon Muifa’s passage from 0000UTC 16 on November to 1200UTC on 25 November 2004. The results reveal the unique features of the SCS wave characteristics in response to Muifa, such as non-decaying, monsoon-generated swell throughout the typhoon period and strong topographic effects on the directional wave spectrum.     

Cyclonic Activity of Tropical Cyclones and Its Dynamics: A Single Continuous Process

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The possible effect of the cyclonic activity of tropical cyclones of one year on the cyclonic activity of the next year has been investigated. The...     

Mutual Dynamics of Tropical Cyclones

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Interrelations of an energy nature in the dynamics of cyclonic activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are considered. The relationships, represented by...     

On some interrelations in the dynamics of tropical cyclonic activity

A chronological series of tropical cyclones is a flow of cyclonic activity where the bursts and calms of cyclonic activity alternate. Some interrelations between the stages of cyclonic activity have been studied. We derive the dependence that the length of the time interval between two consecutive of bursts of cyclonic activity have on a number of parameters of the first burst and the calm between the bursts. We find that one can estimate the intensity of the subsequent burst on the basis of the intensity of the previous burst. We derive a regression between the value of burst energy at a given time and the value of energy in the same burst for 1–3 days.     

影响我国东部海域的温带气旋及其大风统计特征

本文对1959～1988年共30年来1829个温带气旋过程及其造成我国黄海,东海海域的1032个气旋大风过程,从温带气旋发生源地、移动路径特征及其东部海域气旋大风的分布特征与持续时间等等几方面进行统计分析。提供了一些关于我国东部温带气旋及其大风的气候概况。     

On Some Similar Regularities of Cyclonic and Seismic Activity

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Similar regularities of cyclonic and seismic activity have been revealed. This research is based on information on tropical cyclones and earthquakes in...     

1979—2019年影响中国沿海的热带气旋与ENSO变化关系初探

采用1979—2019年热带气旋最佳路径资料,分析影响中国沿海的热带气旋的时空演变特征,并结合Ni?o3.4指数、海表温度和海洋上层热容量资料,对热带气旋与ENSO变化关系进行初步探讨。结果表明,近40年来影响中国沿海的热带气旋经历了1990年代减弱,2000年代增强的变化过程,且在2000年以后呈现显著向岸迁移趋势。影响中国沿海的热带气旋与表征ENSO的Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年发生突变,具体表现为ACE与Ni?o3.4指数在2000年前呈显著正相关,2000年后二者相关性明显下降。通过将ACE分解成平均强度ACE₁、持续时间ACE₂和频数ACE₃这三个分量,发现2000年前Ni?o3.4指数与平均强度ACE₁呈显著正相关,但2000年后Ni?o3.4指数与ACE₁相关关系减弱,这可能是导致ACE与Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系在2000年左右发生突变的主要原因。持续时间ACE₂与Ni?o3.4指数一直保持显著正相关,频数ACE_3<...     

晚春北极涛动对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的影响

利用美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料以及中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集,本文探讨了1950–2018年期间晚春(5月)北极涛动(AO)与随后夏季(6–9月)西北太平洋上空热带气旋生成频数的关系.研究表明,晚春AO对夏季西北太平洋TC生成有明显的预报指示意义,二者...     

2023年秋季海洋天气评述

2023年秋季（9—11月）北半球极涡为单极型分布,中高纬度地区呈5波型,欧亚大陆西风环流较为平直,西风带槽脊较弱。我国近海共出现16次8级以上大风过程,其中热带气旋大风过程3次,热带气旋与冷空气共同影响的大风过程3次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程3次,冷空气大风过程7次。西北太平洋和南海共生成4个热带气旋,热带气旋活动较常年偏少,全球其他海域生成热带气旋22个。近海出现2.0 m以上大浪过程17次,大浪日数占秋季总日数约71%。近海海面温度较常年平均偏高。     

2020年秋季海洋天气评述

2020年秋季(9-11月)大气环流特征表现为,北半球极涡呈单极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型.9-11月,欧亚大陆中高纬环流经向度不断加大,冷空气势力增强.西太平洋副热带高压较历史平均偏强,热带气旋活动频繁.我国近海出现了19次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程6次,台风大风过程4次,入海气旋大风过程1次,冷空气与热带...