1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征

利用1991-2009 年中国农业气象站点记录的灾害及物候资料,首先对小麦各类气象灾害发生的频次及所在生长发育期进行了时空特征分析;然后通过对比较暖10 年（2000-2009）与其前10（1990-1999）年两个时期的灾害时空变化特点,探讨气候变化对灾害发生的影响。结果表明：干旱是小麦发生频率最高的灾害类型,其发生频率高达79.21%,冰雹、干热风、大风、连阴雨等灾害类型也在小麦生产过程中有较多发生。气候变化背景下,小麦典型气象灾害发生频次有所增加,并且主要发生在生殖生长期。空间上,灾害类型增加较为明显的有：山东半岛的干热风、西北地区东部的干旱、暴雨及冰雹。分析表明：不同灾害种类的发生及变化的空间分布与中国气候变化特征有很强的关系。     

新疆气候时空变化特征及其趋势(英文)

Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and R/S methods. The results indicate that: (1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years, but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation; (2) for temperature increase, the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase, though the latitude has greater influence on the increase. Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang, especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang. Ili, which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang, shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general, the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5) Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the current trends.     

中国近期主要农业自然灾害的时空变化分析(英文)

China is a disaster prone country, and a comprehensive understanding of change of disasters is very important for China’s agricultural development. In this study, statistical techniques and geographic information system tools are employed to quantify the main agriculture disasters changes and effects on grain production in China during the period of 1990–2011. The results show that China’s grain production was severely affected by disasters including drought, flood, hail, frost and typhoon. The annual area covered by these disasters reached up to 48.7×106 ha during the study period, which accounted for 44.8% of the total sown area, and about 55.1% of the per unit area grain yield change was caused by disasters. In addition, all of the disasters showed high variability, different changing trends, and spatial distribution. Drought, flood, and hail showed significantly decreasing trends, while frost and typhoon showed increasing trends. Drought and flood showed gradual changes and were distributed across the country, and disasters became more diversified from north to south. Drought was the dominated disaster type in northern China, while flood was the most important disaster type in the southern part. Hail was mainly observed in central and northern China, and frost was mainly distributed in southern China. Typhoon was greatly limited to the southeast coast. Furthermore, the resilience of grain production of each province was quite different, especially in several major grain producing areas, such as Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin and Jiangsu, where grain production was seriously affected by disasters. One reason for the difference of resilience of grain production was that grain production was marginalized in developed provinces when the economy underwent rapid development. For China’s agricultural development and grain security, we suggest that governments should place more emphasis on grain production, and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the major grain producing provinces.     

历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征(英文)

Based on historical documents and records this paper analyzes the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters that took place in the history of China. The findings show that occurrences of different types of disasters varied and spatial pattern at provincial level are significantly different as well. The results also indicate that there is a strong relationship between type of disasters and spatial distribution and that the spatial pattern of losses was not the same as that of the frequency. The reasons are: (1) the hazard-formative environments which, to a large extent, determine the spatial pattern of the disasters are significantly different; (2) the losses caused by natural disasters were closely related to the concentration of economy and population. Number of deaths was usually large in areas where agriculture, culture and business were relatively developed. The spatial pattern of disaster losses is an evitable result of uneven economic development in the history of China.     

气候变化背景下1981-2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异（英文）

Spatio-temporal changes in the differentiation characteristics of eight consecutive phenological periods and their corresponding lengths were quantitatively analyzed based on long-term phenological observation data from 114 agro-meteorological stations in four maize growing zones in China. Results showed that average air temperature and growing degree-days (GDD) during maize growing seasons showed an increasing trend from 1981 to 2010, while precipitation and sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend. Maize phenology has significantly changed under climate change: spring maize phenology was mainly advanced, especially in northwest and southwest maize zones, while summer and spring-summer maize phenology was delayed. The delay trend observed for summer maize in the northwest maize zone was more pronounced than in the Huang-Huai spring-summer maize zone. Variations in maize phenology changed the corresponding growth stages length: the vegetative growth period (days from sowing date to tasseling date) was generally shortened in spring, summer, and spring-summer maize, although to different degrees, while the reproductive growth period (days from tasseling date to mature date) showed an extension trend. The entire growth period(days from sowing date to mature date) of spring maize was extended, but the entire growth periods of summer and spring-summer maize were shortened.     

中国干旱灾害评估与空间特征分析(英文)

Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops,the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model,which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Pre-cipitation Index (SPI).Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study.The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west dif-ference,with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part.High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau,the central part of Northeast China Plain,the northern part of Heilongjiang,the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau,the southern part of North China Plain,the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain,and Yun-nan-Guizhou Plateau.Furthermore,obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings.     

三江源地区1961-2010年降水时空变化(英文)

Based on a monthly dataset of precipitation time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region (THRHR) of Qinghai Province, China, the spatio-temporal variation and abrupt change analysis of precipitation were examined by using moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, the Mann-Kendall test and so on. Major conclusions were as follows. (1) The long-term annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area indicated an increasing trend with some oscillations during 1961-2010; however, the summer precipitation in the Lantsang (Lancang) River Headwater Region (LARHR), and the autumn precipitation in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YERHR) of the THRHR decreased in the same period. (2) The amount of annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions was greater in the 1980s and 2000s. The springs were fairly wet after the 1970s, while the summers were relatively wet in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. In addition, the amount of precipitation in the autumn was greater in the 1970s and 1980s, but it was relatively less for the winter precipitation, except in the 1990s. (3) The normal values of spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions all increased, but the normal value of summer precipitation in the LARHR had a negative trend and the normal value of winter precipitation declined in general. (4) The spring and winter precipitation increased in most of the THRHR. The summer, autumn and annual precipitation increased mainly in the marginal area of the west and north and decreased in the regions of Yushu, Zaduo, Jiuzhi and Banma. (5) The spring and winter precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions showed an abrupt change, except for the spring precipitation in the YARHR. The abrupt changes of spring precipitation were mainly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, while the abrupt changes of winter precipitation were primary in the mid-to late 1970s. This research would be helpful for further understanding the trends and periodicity of precipitation and for watershed-based water resource management in the THRHR.     

1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

近50年气候变化背景下中国西部冰川面积状况分析(英文)

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China moni-tored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glacier was 0.3% a-1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.     

1961-2010年三江源地区气温变化与突变分析(英文)

In this study, a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province (THRHR) was used to analyze the climate change. The temperature variation and abrupt change analysis were examined by using moving average, linear regression, Spline interpo-lation, Mann-Kendall test and so on. Some important conclusions were obtained from this research, which mainly contained four aspects as follows. (1) There were several cold and warm fluctuations for the annual and seasonal average temperature in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions, but the temperature in these regions all had an obviously rising trend at the statistical significance level, especially after 2001. The spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperature increased evidently after the 1990s, and the winter average temperature exhibited an obvious upward trend after entering the 21st century. Except the standard value of spring temperature, the annual and seasonal temperature standard value in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions increased gradually, and the upward trend for the standard value of winter average temperature indicated significantly. (2) The tendency rate of annual average temperature in the THRHR was 0.36℃10a?1, while the tendency rates in the Yellow River Headwater Region (YERHR), Lancangjiang River Headwater Region (LARHR) and Yangtze River Headwater Region (YARHR) were 0.37℃10a?1, 0.37℃10a?1 and 0.34℃10a?1 respectively. The temperature increased significantly in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County. The rising trends of temperature in winter and autumn were higher than the upward trends in spring and summer. (3) The abrupt changes of annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperature were found in the THRHR, LARHR and YARHR, and were detected for the summer and autumn average temperature in the YERHR. The abrupt changes of annual and summer average temperatures were mainly in the late 1990s, while the abrupt changes of autumn and winter average temperatures ap-peared primarily in the early 1990s and the early 21st century respectively. (4) With the global warming, the diversities of altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Tibetan Plateau were possibly the main reasons for the high increasing rate of temperature in the THRHR.     

中国东北耕地物候期对气候变化的响应(英文)

We investigated the responses of cropland phenophases to changes of agricultural thermal conditions in Northeast China using the SPOT-VGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ten-day-composed time-series data, observed crop phenophases and the climate data collected from 1990 to 2010. First, the phenological parameters, such as the dates of onset-of-growth, peak-of-growth and end-of-growth as well as the length of the growing season, were extracted from the smoothed NVDI time-series dataset and showed an obvious correlation with the observed crop phenophases, including the stages of seedling, heading, maturity and the length of the growth period. Secondly, the spatio-temporal trends of the major thermal conditions (the first date of ≥10℃, the first frost date, the length of the temperature-allowing growth period and the accumulated temperature (AT) of ≥10℃) in Northeast China were illustrated and analyzed over the past 20 years. Thirdly, we focused on the responses of cropland phenophases to the thermal conditions changes. The results showed that the onset-of-growth date had an obvious positive correlation with the first date of ≥10℃ (P < 0.01), especially in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle and eastern parts of Jilin Province. For the extracted length of growing season and the observed growth period, notable correlations were found in almost same regions (P < 0.05). However, there was no obvious correlation between the end-of-growth date and the first frost date in the study area. Opposite correlations were observed between the length of the growing season and the AT of ≥10℃. In the northern part of the Songnen Plain, the eastern part of the Sanjiang Plain and the middle part of Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, the positive correlation coefficients were higher than the critical value of 0.05, whereas the negative correlation coefficients reached a level of 0.55 (P < 0.05) in the middle and southern parts of Heilongjiang Province and some parts of the Sanjiang Plain. This finding indicated that the crop growth periods were shortened because of the elevated temperature; in contrast, the extended growth period usually meant a crop transformation from early- or middle-maturing varieties into middle or late ones.     

MRICES:一个新的减排方案评价模型及其应用(英文)

Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions, whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country’s right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8 ℃by 2100; consequently, much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall method. Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to attribute the effects of the variations of air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, vapour pressure and wind speed on RET. The results showed that average annual RET in the eastern plain area of the Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm, which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountainous area. The trend of annual RET had significant spatial variability. Annual RET was reduced significantly in the southeastern oasis area and southwestern plain area and increased slightly in the mountain areas. The amplitude of the change of RET reached the highest in summer, contributing most of the annual change of RET. Except in some high elevation areas where relative humidity predominated the change of the RET, the variations of wind velocity predominated the changes of RET almost throughout the basin. Taking Kuqa and Ulugqat stations as an example, the variations of wind velocity accounted for more than 50% of the changes of RET.     

背景气候和城市化对中国东南部增温的联合效应(英文)

Based on China homogenized land surface air temperature and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-Ⅱ Reanalysis data (R-2), the main contributors to surface air temperature increase in Southeast China were investigated by comparing trends of urban and rural temperature series, as well as observed and R-2 data, covering two periods of 1954-2005 and 1979-2005. Results from urban-rural comparison indicate that urban heat island (UHI) effects on regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases account for 10.5% and 12.0% since 1954, but with smaller warming attribution of 6.2% and 10.6% since 1979. The results by comparing observations with R-2 surface temperature data suggest that land use change accounts for 32.9% and 28.8% in regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases since 1979. Accordingly, the influence of land use change on regional temperature increase in Southeast China is much more noticeable during the last 30 years. However, it indicates that UHI effect, overwhelmed by the warming change of background climate, does not play a significant role in regional warming over Southeast China during the last 50 years.     

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述(英文)

Climate change and human activities are the two kinds of driving forces in desertification,and assessing their relative role in desertification is of great significance to deeply understanding the driving mechanisms and preventing desertification expansion.This paper has systematically reviewed the progress of the researches on assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification from qualitative,semi-quantitative and quantitative aspects respectively.The authors found that there were still some problems in the previous researches.For example,the subjectivity in assessment was obvious,the assessment cannot be easily repeated,and the assessment and its results were always based on administrative regions and less taken and expressed in a continuous space.According to the progress of previous researches and the works conducted by the authors recently,we put forward a quantitative approach by selecting NPP as a common indicator to measure the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification and dividing the ecological process of "driving force effect-dynamic response of desertified land" into several scenarios.Meanwhile,validation and scale of assessment should be taken into account when quantitative assessment of the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification are carried out.     

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势(英文)

This study examines the hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020. Through analyzing the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, it predicts the variation trend for future flows. It is found that the annual mean flow showed a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of the Yellow River with quasi-periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a; the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon induced precipitation decrease, as well as evaporation increase and frozen soil degeneration in the scenario of global warming are the climate factors, which have caused flow decrease. Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of the Yellow River are likely to decrease generally in the next 20 years.     

近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布(英文)

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure (SLP) during 1850–2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon on the distribution of drought/flood over eastern China in the last 159 years is researched. The results show that there are four typical drought and flood spatial distribution patterns in eastern China, i.e. the distribution of drought/flood in southern China is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood along the Huanghe River–Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it, the distribution of drought/flood along the Yangtze River Valley and Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood in eastern China is contrary to the western. The main distribution pattern of SLP in summer is that the strength of SLP is opposite in Asian continent and West Pacific. It has close relationship between the interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution patterns over eastern China and the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon which was defined in this paper, but the correlation is not stable and it has a significant difference in changes of interdecadal phase. When the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was more susceptible to drought (flood), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were more susceptible to flood (drought) before the 1920s; when the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), the regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was prone to flood (drought), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were prone to drought (flood) after the 1920s. It is indicated that by using the data of the longer period could get much richer results than by using the data of the last 50–60 years. The differences in the interdecadal phase between the East Asian summer monsoon and the drought/flood distributions in eastern China may be associated with the nonlinear feedback, which is the East Asian summer monsoon for the extrinsic forcing of solar activity.     

1999-2007年中国耕地利用变化——政策演进视角(英文)

Cultivated land protection (CLP) entered the new era of macro administration in 1999 in China. This paper presents a holistic analysis of cultivated land use change concerning the three goals of the CLP, i.e., grain security, ecological security and harmonizing regional development. Farmers’ willingness to grow grain has been the key factor in safeguarding grain security. Grain-for-green policy has contributed to improving ecological state especially in the western provinces. Effects of the land macro-control of the CLP on harmonizing regional development were significant. Moreover, cultivated land use change in 1999-2007 points out the way of the evolving policy in the future. From the viewpoint of normative concept of multifunctionality, we discuss development of the three land functions, i.e., production function, environmental function and carrier function. Finally, we propose to emphasize multifunctional land management based on regional differences to promote transition of the CLP.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

1961-2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应(英文)

A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.