500mb形势数值预告的一种方案

在本文中,作者为了避免500mb 位面是无辐散的假定,引用了在大气顶 P=0处高度 H随时间变化很小,而且此位面几近于一个平面的假设,经过一些变化后,便得出了500mb 形势预告的方程,这个方程与正压涡度方程很相似,尤其当柵格取得小些时(例如600km),这个方程便较接近于正压预告方程,但二者是有本质上的区別的.于此文中,作者并指出在正压模式中,柵格取得小些时,可以得到较好的结果.从实例来看,这个方法是有些成功的.     

中国地区大范围定量降水数值预告图解法的试验

本文引用两层模式,以数值预告图解法计算未来24小时后的500/1000mb 厚度图、大范围垂直运动分布图.另外,还计算了500mb 层以下的水汽水平输送量.并由此算出24小时降水量的分布图.文中并以1957年5月15—16日08时的我国地区情况为例,进行了实例计算.     

欧洲中期天气预报中心产品的自动处理和六—十天的延伸预报

欧洲中期天气预报中心(简称 ECMWF)的全球原始方程15层模式是目前公认的最佳模式。我台每天经由中央台接收3—5天的北半球500mb高度预告的格点资料。在 ECMWF 产品的应用方面,我们做了两项工作:ECMWF 产品在电子计算机上的自动处理和北半球500mb 高度六—十天的延伸预报。一、ECMWF 产品在电算机上的自动处理目前,中央台逐日向各地气象台、站转发ECMWF 的北半球500mb 2—5天的形势预告图。由于传真图上无高度值,给预报产品的应用带来了许多困难。因此不少气象台站在接收传真图的同     

简化的两个参变数模型的图解数值预报

在本文中作者给出了用图解计算500毫巴24小时形势预告图的方法和实际操作步骤。应用这个方法作者计算了三张500毫巴预告图,结果和实况还大致相似。     

950毫巴风场和温湿场与暴雨的关系

我们在华南前汛期几次暴雨过程的分析中,发现海拔500m低空(或950mb等压面)的风场和温湿场与暴雨有着很好的对应关系。一般说来,行星边界层的厚度约为1500m,海拔500m处(约950mb)可近似地代表边界层的情况(国外准备把925mb层来代表行星边界层)。在我们的分析中,发现暴雨最强的时刻,500m低空的辐合也最强,影响暴雨的温湿场特征在     

我们是怎样应用数值预告产品的

我站没有传真设备,只抄收自治区气象局话语广播的500hpa48小时、96小时高度和平均温度三张预告图.其中48小时的500hpa高度预告图,在日常预报业务中是形势预告很有价值的产品.现将我站是如何使用这三张图的情况介绍如下. 一、思路 1.基于对500hpa高度形势预告图的信任,设想未来的环流背景预告是正确的. 2.由于预告图是20时的,考虑到环流形势预告将落后于8时的实况形势,所以经度选后了几度.     

北半球环流指数的某些特征

通过对实际资料的分析,作者发现,在0—70°N 地区北半球500mb 气候平均位势高度沿纬圈的平均值,不论冬夏,都可以很准确地用四参数来表示,其误差小于10位势米.对用三参数和二参数表示的情况也作了此较.最后还用三参数计算了逐月的气候平均情况和个别月份逐日的情况,并指出了某些特征.     

500mb压能场在台风路径预报中的应用

在研究台风暴雨预报中包澄澜等指出,低空压能场有独特的作用,并认为在低纬度地区分析压能场似乎比分析气压场更合理些。我们发现在台风路径较复杂多变时,其移动方向与500mb高度场形势有较明显的偏差,引导气流的应用不太适宜。为此,我们选择两个台风个例(7910、7504)计算了500mb压能场,试用在台风路径预报中,发现两者有一定的关系。压能场公式的推导:取单位质量空气无摩擦运动方程     

计算单站大气垂直稳定度的一种简易方法

目前,许多县站缺少探空资料,不能利用温度压力对数图解(即T—1np图)对大气垂直稳定度做出判定。那么,能不能利用县站可能得到的资料将T—1np图判定法的部分原理变成简明的计算公式,来判定大气垂直稳定度呢?这是县站夏季雷暴天气预报中的一个比较具有实际意义的问题。 一、公式的思路和计算 如果选一与本站水平距离最近的探空站(最好处于本站天气上游,不超过100km)的某一等压面(如500mb)的高度、温度(这可从天气形势预报广播中收到)近似的做为本站上空同一等压面的高度、温度。由于表示等压面高度的位势米与几何高度米数值相近,所以,可以用该站等压面的高度值减去本站百叶     

1000mb面及500mb面图解法数值预报的新尝试

本文提出了1000mb 面及500mb 面图解法数值预报的新方法.其特点是:(1)考虑了整个对流圈的铅直结构.用 Sawyer-Bushby 模式进行计算;但方法可推广到其他模式,例如Eliassen 模式.(2)500mb 面不当作无辐散层,无辐散层可置于其他适当的等压面上.方法的要点是利用 Bolin 定义的等效斜压层上某些平流来计算1000mb 及500mb 面的变高.讨论了一些实际试验结果.     

准地转两层模式天气数值预报方法的试验

作者用准地转两层模式以图解方法试作了24小时及48小时亚洲部分的500毫巴高度预报。从所作的几个例子来看,有的预报结果较好,但像阻塞高压的一个例子中高压位置南边的负变高没有预报出来,因此预报图上没有阻塞高压的形成。原因主要是在准地转两层模式没有恰切地考虑到500毫巴的辐散场。作者指出500毫巴上天气系统有猛烈发展时500毫巴上的辐散场是比较大的,要考虑到后者的作用就必须应用三层模式或不用准地转假定。作者并指出了 Fj(?)rtoft 的图解方法也有不小的误差。     

东北地区冷夏、热夏长期预报的初步研究

使用1951—1978年北半球海平面气压、500毫巴、100毫巴月平均环流资料和太乎洋海水表面温度资料,讨论了形成我国东北地区冷夏、热夏的环流和海温特征及其演变,得出了一些制作长期天气予报的着眼点和予报工具。     

Lapwings in Newfoundland

Abstract

Weather observations made at Eureka, on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic, have been archived since 1953. The time series, averages, and seasonal cycles of surface temperature, pressure, dew point, relative humidity, cloud cover, wind speed, and direction are presented for the period from 1954 to 2007. Also shown are the time series and averages for the 500 mb temperature, 900 to 500 mb thickness, 500 mb wind speed, and various boundary‐layer stability parameters. Some of the main trends found are 1) an annual average surface warming of 3.2°C since 1972, with summer exhibiting the least warming, 2) a reduction in the frequency of strong anticyclonic events in the winter, 3) a reduction in surface wind speeds except in the summer, 4) a 1.0°C warming in the 500 mb temperature since 1961, with the greatest warming occurring in the spring and summer, and 5) a 10% increase in precipitable water all year round since 1961 but dominated by the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. The importance of open water in the Arctic Ocean for summer temperatures and humidity, of the North Atlantic Oscillation for winter interannual pressure variability, and of precipitable water for winter temperatures are highlighted in this climatology.     

Investigation of summer synoptic climate controls on the mass balance of Meighen Ice Cap

Abstract

The Meighen Ice Cap synoptic climate classification system, developed from the study of six years of summer meteorological and glaciological observations, appears to account for significant variations in the energy‐ and mass‐balance climates of the ice cap. In relating the summer frequency of the three synoptic types to fourteen years of mass‐balance measurements, it was found that variations in surface conditions, solar angle and type of precipitation could be accounted for by the relative sequence of synoptic types. Further it was shown that the types could be represented by the position of the dominant 500‐mb cold Low influencing Meighen Island, thus providing a link between the mass balance and the general circulation.

Dominance of the winter pattern of a 500‐mb Low in the Hudson Bay –Baffin Island region throughout the summer season is capable of maintaining Meighen Ice Cap at its present size. A shift of the 500‐mb Low from the winter position directly to the Beaufort Sea or adjoining Polar Ocean area is capable of increasing the size of the ice cap. On the other hand, a shift of the 500‐mb vortex to the Asiatic side of the Polar Ocean before taking up position in the Beaufort Sea – Polar Ocean area produces negative mass‐balance conditions. When the 500‐mb Low remains on the Asiatic side of the Polar Ocean during most of the summer season the slow accumulation of two decades of Polar Ocean years is destroyed.     

Regional 500 mb heights and U.S. 1 000-500 mb thickness prior to the radiosonde era

Summary We developed a statistical model relating cyclone track eigenvectors over the U.S., southern Canada, and nearby oceans to a record of mean annual 500 mb heights. The length of the cyclone track record allowed us to calculate mean heights back to 1885. Use of mean annual surface pressure data allowed us to estimate the mean 1 000-500 mb thickness, which was related to mean annual temperature. This temperature calculation is unique in that it cannot suffer from urban or site bias. We find a warming of 1.5°C from the late 19th century to 1955, followed by a drop of 0.7° to 1980. By 1987, the calculated temperatures were 0.3° above the mean for 103 years of record.As an example of regional application, we examine results over the southwestern U.S.With 8 Figures     

夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系

通过对夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型变化的研究,我们发现夏季我国西藏高原上空的反气旋是北半球副热带地区势力最强并稳定的大气活动中心。这个高空反气旋绕着其平均位置来回振动。在振动过程中,亚洲南部的100毫巴流型发生调整,并表现成两类基本的流型,其中第一类流型表现反气旋偏离高原,这时候在高原东西两侧(50°E和110°)各有新的反气旋建立,而在高原上则是低气压区;第二类流型表现在反气旋重新返回高原上空。在这两类流型转变期间,西太平洋副热带高压脊在中国大陆上出现一次进退过程,而且每年我国长江流域梅雨期的结束也与上述第一类流型的建立有联系。其次,我们对中国大陆上西太平洋副热带高压进退过程与100毫巴流型变化的关系进行了研究,发现两者关系甚密切。当100毫巴第一类流型出现时,西太平洋副热带高压北进西伸。而在第二类流型出现时,西太平洋副热带高压向东南撤退。根据这些关系并结合我国预报员有关副热带高压进退的预报经验,我们提出有关副热带高压进退预报的几个依据。     

A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere with observations part II: Stationary waves and transient fluctuations

Abstract

This paper presents the seasonal dependence of the stationary and transient eddies of the GLAS/UMD GCM from a two‐year annual cycle integration.

The simulated Northern Hemisphere stationary waves are realistic in winter (below 250 mb) and in spring and fall; in winter a large anomalous ridge over the date‐line is noted above 250 mb. The model does not simulate the winter barotropic trough over eastern Canada. In summer the mid‐latitude stationary waves are poorly simulated (possibly owing to anomalous summer rainfall), but the monsoonal structure in the tropics is captured.

The stationary wave field at 500 mb in the Southern Hemisphere is not well simulated, with the range of season‐to‐season variability being much larger than observed. The zonally averaged stationary wave rms is realistic below 200 mb in winter and spring, but is less so in summer and autumn, possibly due to erroneous summertime precipitation.

The geographical distributions of 500‐mb transient and band‐pass height rms, of transient 850‐mb heat flux and of 200‐mb momentum flux in the Northern Hemisphere are well simulated except for summer. The latitude‐height dependence of height rms and low‐level transient heat flux is realistic in both summer and winter, but the transient momentum flux is not well simulated in summer. The mid‐level transient heat flux is too strong.

The overall pattern of transient activity at 500 mb in the Southern Hemisphere is reasonable in the GCM, although there is too much variability in the eastern Pacific, while the observed peak in rms in the New Zealand sector is displaced eastwards in the GCM. The latitude‐height dependence of transient height rms and transient fluxes of heat and momentum looks quite realistic, and is similar in accuracy to the Northern Hemispheric results.     

Investigations on variations of the subtropical high in the Western Pacific during historic times

In this paper the 500 mb circulation field over East Asia was reconstructed by means of a stepwise regression technique, based on the relationship between summer (June to August) rainfall in China and 500 mb level heights. As a result of this study, three indices for the subtropical high, the longitude of the west border, and the latitude of the north border and intensity for the period AD 1471–1980 were extracted from reconstructed 500 mb level heights.The power spectrum analysis was carried out to investigate the variation of subtropical high indices for last 500 yr; it is shown that the prominent cycles are 22-, 36-, 55-yr and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), among these the latter is more significant.The long-term variations of the 10 yr average 500 mb level heights and subtropical high indices are examined in relation to climate change; it was determined that the longitudinal variation of subtropical high plays an important role in the wetness variations over China.