Probability Estimates of Field Areas and Trapped Oil Volumes

A portion of a sedimentary basin is subdivided conceptually into hexagons of equal area. The area of each hexagon is equal to the minimum area an oil field should have to be commercial. Hexagons can be full of oil or empty. A field size 1 consists of a cell with oil surrounded by six empty cells; a field size 2 consists of two adjacent cells with oil surrounded by eight empty cells, etc. Principles of Percolation Theory are used to determine the probability distribution of the areas of the oil fields existing in this portion of the basin. The only piece of information necessary to determine this probability distribution is the Success Ratio (number of successful exploration wells/total number of exploration wells drilled in this portion of the basin). This approach has several practical applications.A probabilistic model is introduced to predict to which extent potential oil traps are filled with oil. The model assumes that the probability that an oil unit will end up in a particular trap, is proportional to the surface area of the trap. The model predicts that independently of the distribution of the trap volumes, there will be a critical trap volume. All the traps having a volume less than this critical volume, will be filled to spill point. An equation is deduced to predict, for all traps having a volume greater than the critical, the volume of oil that can be encountered in the trap, provided the volume of the trap is known.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.     

Pleistocene Charophyta from Arroyo Perucho Verna,Province of Entre Rios,Argentina

The Pleistocene charophytes from Arroyo Perucho Verna, Province of Entre Ríos, were analyzed.Chara contraria Br. ex Kütz.,C. contraria var.longilinea Cáceres,C. globularis Thuill. andTolypella intricata (Trent. ex Roth.) Leonh. var.apiculata (A. Br.) Wood were described and illustrated with scanning electron microscope. The assemblage indicates fresh alkaline to slightly saline waters, not very deep, in a lentic or sometimes lotic environment. Extant assemblages provide data for this paleoecological reconstruction.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on Paleolimnology in Southern South America. Dr. C. A. Fernandéndez served as guest editor for these papers.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints.     

Estimating the Depth of Stratigraphic Units from Marine Seismic Profiles Using Nonstationary Geostatistics

The object of this study is to build a three-dimensional (3D) geometric model of the stratigraphicunits of the margin of the Rhone River on the basis of geophysical investigations by a networkof seismic profiles at sea. The geometry of these units is described by depth charts of eachsurface identified by seismic profiling, which is done by geostatistics. The modeling starts bya statistical analysis by which we determine the parameters that enable us to calculate thevariograms of the identified surfaces. After having determined the statistical parameters, wecalculate the variograms of the variable Depth. By analyzing the behavior of the variogramwe then can deduce whether the situation is stationary and if the variable has an anisotropicbehavior. We tried the following two nonstationary methods to obtain our estimates: (a) Themethod of universal kriging if the underlying variogram was directly accessible. (b) Themethod of increments if the underlying variogram was not directly accessible. After havingmodeled the variograms of the increments and of the variable itself, we calculated the surfacesby kriging the variable Depth on a small-mesh estimation grid. The two methods then arecompared and their respective advantages and disadvantages are discussed, as well as theirfields of application. These methods are capable of being used widely in earthsciences forautomatic mapping of geometric surfaces or for variables such as a piezometricsurface or aconcentration, which are not stationary, that is, essentially, possess a gradient or a tendencyto develop systematically in space.     

Paleolimnological significance of spinose and non-spinose morphs of Pyrgophorus hibbardi (Leonard and Franzen, 1944)

The basal portion of the Ogallala Formation (=Laverne Formation) (Lower Pliocene) Beaver County, Oklahoma, contains an interesting assemblage of non-marine fossil molluscs that include both spinose and non-spinose forms of the aquatic gastropod species Pyrgophorus hibbardi. The origin and paleolimnological significance of the spinose morph has been a source of much conjecture that has influenced environmental reconstructions of this assemblage. In one hypothesis the spinose forms of P. hibbardi are assumed to be associated with brackish water conditions by analogy with some populations of a related hydrobiid Potamopyrgus jenkinsi. To test the hypothesis that the spinose forms lived under different water conditions than the non-spinose morphs, we analyzed 10 specimens each of the two varieties for stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in the shell aragonite.The mean isotope ratios for the smooth and spinose morphs show no significant difference (oxygen: t = 0.28, df = 18, P (T t) 0.78 n.s.; carbon: t = 0.96, df = 18, P (T t) 0.35 n.s). We conclude that the lack of a statistically significant difference between the means of the oxygen and carbon isotope values for the smooth and spinose morphs suggests that the two forms lived in waters having similar isotope signatures. The considerable range in oxygen isotope values recorded by both morphs of P. hibbardi, including values as high as 5–6, suggest that both morphs were associated with waters which were periodically evaporatively enriched in ¹⁸O.     

Phototrophic activity and redox condition in Lake Hamana, Japan, indicated by sedimentary photosynthetic pigments and molybdenum over the last ∼250 years

We analyzed photosynthetic pigments, total organic carbon (TOC), biogenic silica, and Mo, a redox-sensitive element, in ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores to reconstruct the historical changes in primary productivity and anoxia in the central basin of Lake Hamana, a brackish lake in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, over the last 250 years. The algal photosynthetic pigments we analyzed included chlorophyll a (and its derivatives), chlorophyll b (and its derivatives), and carotenoids such as -carotene, lutein, zeaxanthin, diatoxanthin, fucoxanthin, alloxanthin, and -carotene. Marker pigments for phototrophic sulfur bacteria were also recorded, including okenone and bacteriopheophytin a, originating from Chromatium (a genus of purple sulfur bacteria), and isorenieratene and bacteriochlorophylls e ₁, e ₂ and e ₃ (and corresponding bacteriopheophytins) from brown Chlorobium (a brown-colored group of green sulfur bacteria). The occurrence of these pigments throughout the length of all cores indicates that the anoxia in Lake Hamana has existed over at least the last 250 years. The indicators related to primary productivity – TOC and pigments of aerobic and anaerobic phototrophs – and an indicator of anoxia, Mo, increased after 1860, indicating that productivity had increased in both the oxic and anoxic (sulfidic) zones. The depth profiles of the indicators in the sediment cores showed that among phototrophic sulfur bacteria, Chromatium preferentially increased relative to brown Chlorobium when the lake productivity was high, and hence high anoxia existed in the lake. This can be explained by a shallowing of the oxic/anoxic boundary zone due to changes in temporal and/or spatial extents of seasonal anoxia, which made the light intensity in the upper anoxic zone high enough for Chromatium to grow. The upper Chromatium layer may absorb the wavelengths of light that favor the growth of brown Chlorobium in the water column, resulting in a relative decrease in brown Chlorobium. During the 1950s, the trends among the indicators changed significantly. This change is attributed to the construction of training walls, built to direct tidal currents into the lake, on the Imagire-guchi Channel, the sole inlet of seawater to the lake, during 1954–1956, and the resultant increases of seawater intrusion and lake salinity. A decrease in okenone and bacteriopheophytin a, or in okenone/isorenieratene ratio, after 1960 accompanying a decrease in Mo, is attributed to a deepening of the anoxic zone, where the light intensity became too low for growth of Chromatium, more light-demanding than the brown Chlorobium. A decrease of zeaxanthin (cyanobacteria) after 1960 relative to lutein (green algae) and diatoxanthin (diatoms and dinoflagellates) indicated a change in algal assemblage, presumably due to the increased salinity. Principal component analysis with a data set of total algal carotenoids, okenone, isorenieratene, and Mo also suggested that a major change occurred around the 1950s.     

On the red coloration of saltern crystallizer ponds. II. Additional evidence for the contribution of halobacterial pigments

In a previous paper we attempted to assess the contribution of red bacteria of theHalobacterium — Haloferax — Haloarcula group and of the -carotene-rich green algaDunaliella salina to the red colour of saltern crystallizer ponds. By means of light absorption measurements, we showed that bacterioruberin contained in the bacteria was mainly responsible for the colour of the brines, in spite of the fact that -carotene derived fromDunaliella was the pigment present in the greatest amount. This apparent discrepancy was explained by the very smallin vivo optical cross-section of -carotene, which is densely packed in globules inside theD. salina cells. We recently observed that the centrifugation technique used in the previous study to collect biomass from the ponds was unsuitable for this type of measurements, as a substantial part of theDunaliella cells present did not sediment upon centrifugation due to the low specific gravity caused by the high -carotene content. Therefore similar measurements were performed with biomass collected by filtration. Again,in vivo absorption spectra were dominated by the absorption peaks of bacterioruberin. The results reported here show that, in spite of the methodological problem associated with the earlier study, all views and conclusions expressed in our earlier paper retain their validity.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: I. An introduction to the project

We investigated paleolimnological records from a series of river deltas around the northeastern rim of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa (Tanzania and Burundi) in order to understand the history of anthropogenic activity in the lakes catchment over the last several centuries, and to determine the impact of these activities on the biodiversity of littoral and sublittoral lake communities. Sediment pollution caused by increased rates of soil erosion in deforested watersheds has caused significant changes in aquatic communities along much of the lakes shoreline. We analyzed the effects of sediment discharge on biodiversity around six deltas or delta complexes on the east coast of Lake Tanganyika: the Lubulungu River delta, Kabesi River delta, Nyasanga/Kahama River deltas, and Mwamgongo River delta in Tanzania; and the Nyamuseni River delta and Karonge/Kirasa River deltas in Burundi. Collectively, these deltas and their associated rivers were chosen to represent a spectrum of drainage-basin sizes and disturbance levels. By comparing deltas that are similar in watershed attributes (other than disturbance levels), our goal was to explore a series of historical experiments at the watershed scale, with which we could more clearly evaluate hypotheses of land use or other effects on nearshore ecosystems. Here we discuss these deltas, their geologic and physiographic characteristics, and the field procedures used for coring and sampling the deltas, and various indicators of anthropogenic impact.     

A useful tool for image enhancement

Image enhancement provides a means to facilitate information transfer without altering the image information. A plug-in for the commonly used image capture and manipulation program Photoshop is discussed as one useful tool.     

Separating wheat from chaff: Diatom taxon selection usingan artificial neural network pruning algorithm

This study addresses the question of what diatom taxa to includein a modern calibration set based on their relative contribution in apalaeolimnological calibration model. Using a pruning algorithm for ArtificialNeural Networks (ANNs) which determines the functionality of individual taxa interms of model performance, we pruned the Surface Water Acidification Project(SWAP) pH-diatom data-set until the predictive performance of thepruned set (as assessed by a jackknifing procedure) was statistically differentfrom the initial full-set. Our results, based on the validation at each5% data-set reduction, show that (i) 85% of the taxa canbe removed without any effect on the pH model calibration performance, and (ii)that the complexity and the dimensionality reduction of the model by theremoval of these non-essential or redundant taxa greatly improve therobustness of the calibration. A comparison between the commonly usedmarginal criteria for inclusion (species tolerance andHill's N2) and our functionality criterion shows that the importance ofeach taxon in an ANN palaeolimnological model calibration does not appear todepend on these marginal characteristics.     

Record of Late Pleistocene Glaciation and Deglaciation in the Southern Cascade Range. II. Flux of Glacial Flour in a Sediment Core from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

During the late Wisconsin, glacial flour from alpine glaciers along the east side of the Cascade Range in southern Oregon was deposited in Upper Klamath Lake. Quantitative interpretation of magnetic properties and grain-size data of cored sediments from Caledonia Marsh on the west side of the lake provides a continuous record of the flux of glacial flour spanning the last 37 000 calendar years. For modeling purposes, the lake sediments from the 13-m core were divided into three sedimentary components defined from magnetic, geochemical, petrographic, and grain-size data. The components are (1) strongly magnetic, glacial flour made up of extremely fine-grained, fresh volcanic rock particles, (2) less magnetic lithic material made up of coarser, weathered volcanic detritus, and (3) non-magnetic biogenic material (largely biogenic silica). Quantitative interpretation is possible because there has been no significant postdepositional destruction or formation of magnetic minerals, nor alteration affecting grain-size distributions. Major steps involved in the interpretation include: (1) computation of biogenic and lithic components; (2) determination of magnetic properties and grain-size distributions of the non-glacial and glacial flour end-members; (3) computation of the contents of weathered and glacial flour components for each sample; (4) development of an age model based on the mass accumulation of the non-glacial lithic component; and (5) use of the age model and glacial flour contents to compute the flux of glacial flour. Comparison of the glacial flour record from Upper Klamath Lake to mapped glacial features suggests a nearly linear relation between flux of glacial flour and the extent of nearby glaciers. At 22 ka, following an extended period during which glaciers of limited size waxed and waned, late Wisconsin (Waban) glaciers began to grow, reaching their maximum extent at 19 ka. Glaciers remained near their maximum extent for 1000 years. During this period, lake sediments were made up of 80% glacial flour. The content of glacial flour decreased as the glaciers receded, and reached undetectable levels by 14 ka.     

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.     

Oscillaxanthin and myxoxanthophyll in two cores from Lake Wabamun,Alberta, Canada

A sedimentary blue-green algal record has been investigated through measurement of myxoxanthophyll and oscillaxanthin in two cores taken from deep and shallow sites in Lake Wabamun, Alberta, Canada (Longitudes 114° 26 and 114° 44 W; Latitudes 50° 30 and 50° 35 N). Blue-green algae have been a component of the algal flora of this lake throughout the Holocene period. Myxoxanthophyll and oscillaxanthin maxima occur in early Holocene sediments (ca. 9000 years BP), whereas oscillaxanthin concentrations are high between 7000 and 3800 years BP. High oscillaxanthin levels suggest that a phytoplankton assemblage, which included Oscillatoria spp., existed during this latter period and the lake was more eutrophic than at present. Decreases in the number of planktonic diatoms in the core from the deep site (Seba core) appear to be related to increased eutrophy, increased salinity, and sediment redistribution as well as possible competition with Oscillatoria. That the lake has been less productive during the last 2500 years in supported by the diatom record, the diatom: chrysophyte statospore (stomatocyst) ratio and concentrations of the blue-green algal pigments. In the core from the shallow site (Moonlight Bay) concentrations of blue-green algal pigments are initially high, which along with the diatom assemblage, indicates a younger basal age of the sediments. It is possible that benthic blue-green algae contributed significantly to sedimentary pigment concentrations in the Moonlight Bay core. Major fluctuations in the Osc: Myx ratio, particularly in the Seba core, casts some doubt upon the usefulness of this ratio, and suggests that it is not degradation-independent.     

Comparing probabilistic predictions with outcomes in petroleum exploration prospect appraisal

In the oil industry, uncertainty about hydrocarbon volumes in undrilled prospects generally is expressed as an expectation curve. The curve indicates the probability of exceeding a given amount.After drilling a number of prospects conclusively, that is, we know the amount of reserves in the targets, if any, the question arises about the validity of the prediction. Since the prediction was in the form of a probability distribution, the comparison with a single actual outcome of the process is not straightforward.I propose a specific combination of mainly well-known tests that can be applied in this hindsight analysis to address the following: (1) the measure of location or expectation, (2) the probability of success (3) the shape of the distribution of the nonzero outcomes or success cases, and (4) a measure of rank correlation between predictions and outcomes. Even small numbers of drilled structures may suffice for obtaining conclusive results. Such statistical analysis provides useful feedback for those concerned with the maintenance and control of the prediction system.     

AMS radiocarbon dating of organic fractions from varved lake sediments: an empirical test of reliability

Replicate cores of annually laminated (varved) sediments have been used to test the accuracy and precision of chronologies of lake sediment accumulation over the last 1000 years, based on AMS 14C measurements. The internally consistent results show that in the case of the soft-water lake sediments studied (Kassjön, northern Sweden), all the organic fractions that include aquatic components give significantly older dates than expected. Only the single terrestrial macrofossil and the fine, unidentified residual particulate fraction provide dates close to the true age of the sediments. The results also show that age discrepancies for some fractions are not constant over time. The age discrepancies may arise from some carbon reservoir effect within the aquatic ecosystem, from resuspension and focusing of older marginal organic material into the deepest part of the lake or from some combination of these processes. More work is needed on the 14C age of organic fractions in varve-dated sediments from a range of lake types.     

Extended weights of evidence modeling for the pseudo-estimation of metal grades

The weights of evidence modeling (WEM) for binary patterns is extended to take account of general categorical variables. The extension makes it possible to use the weights of evidence model in estimating the conditional probability distributions of metal grades. First, the target feature is converted into a set of binary target indicators. Second, the posterior probabilities are estimated for each of the target categories. Third, the estimates are combined to yield the posterior probability distribution of the target feature. Finally, the pseudometal estimates are derived from the probability distribution. The metal grade estimates are prefixed with pseudo, because the estimates are created from indirect evidence (explanatory variables). The pseudo-estimates provide a unique quantitative means to the delineation of exploration targets. This advantage reduces the ambiguities of target selection based solely on probability estimates. In order to use the generalized WEM, continuous geoscience attributes must be converted into categorical variables by means of optimal segmentation based on the target attribute of interest. The segmentation may be viewed as a process of defining evidence of the target feature. The extended weights of evidence model is demonstrated on a case study to select gold targets of Carlin type. The dataset used in the modeling includes apparent resistivity fields, soil geochemical samples, lithological and alteration information, and structural data.     

Paleolimnological assessment of human impacts in Lake Blanca, SE Uruguay

Paleolimnological techniques were used to assess human impacts onLake Blanca, a small (0.6 km²), coastal fresh waterbodyin southern Uruguay, which is the drinking water source for 100,000 localresidents. We retrieved a core that extends to about 1100 ¹⁴Cyr BP. ²¹⁰Pb ages, organic mater, CO₃, totalcarbon, nutrients, fossil pigments and diatoms allowed us to establishlimnological conditions before and after cultural impacts. Soil removal(1880–1960) and intensive cattle and sheep grazing (1943–1966) ledto gully formation in the catchment. This watershed erosion resulted inincreased sedimentation rates. The aquatic system appeared to be mesotrophicwith dominance of epibenthic diatoms until 1966, at which timeeutrophication intensified with forestry activities. Increases in nutrients, aswell as blooms of planktonic diatoms, were observed. During the last decade,tourist/urban development as well as high drinking water demand caused areduction in lake area. Subsequent marked increases in rainfall led to furtherphytoplankton blooms and macrophyte proliferation.     

Stable carbon isotope ratios in lake and swamp sediments as a proxy for prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation in the Neotropics

Close correspondence between stable carbon isotope ratios ( ¹³ C), pollen, and charcoal profiles in sediment cores from Laguna Zoncho and Machita swamp, Costa Rica, shows that prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation can be detected in the stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon ( ¹3C _TOC ). Analyses of δ 13C _TOC complement evidence from pollen, charcoal, and phytoliths and provide a proxy that is sensitive to the intensity and/or proximity to core sites of prehistoric forest clearance and agriculture in watersheds. Stable carbon isotope analyses are particularly useful in situations in which other evidence of forest clearance and agriculture is limited.