Seasonal variations of spectra of wind speed and air temperature in the mesoscale frequency range

Seasonal variations of the spectra of wind speed and air temperature in the mesoscale frequency range from 1.3 × 10^-4 to 1.5 × 10^-3 Hz (10 min to 2 h periods) have been studied through observations over land for one year. Spectrographs [time series of isopleths of spectral densities, f · S(f) vs f] of wind speed and air temperature contain occasional peaks that are attributed to short-lived mesoscale atmospheric activity with narrow frequency bands. Significant spectral peaks of wind speed were found in 19% of the total observations in winter, and in 15–16% in the other seasons; for air temperature, they occured in 12% of observations in autumn, and in 16–19% in the other seasons. The peaks most often occurred in the period range from 30 min to 1 h; most had durations less than 24 h. Mesoscale fluctuations of wind speed and air temperature were highly correlated, and in most cases, phase differences were 90–180 ° with air temperature leading wind speed. Significant spectral peaks of wind speed often occurred during northerly seasonal cold winds in winter, and accompanied tropical and/or mid-latitude cyclones in the other seasons. When the peaks occurred, wind speed was usually relatively high and the atmospheric surface layer was unstable.     

Model Computations of the Impact of Climatic Change on the Windthrow Risk of Trees

The more humid, warmer weather pattern predicted for the future is expected to increase the windthrow risk of trees through reduced tree anchorage due to a decrease in soil freezing between late autumn and early spring, i.e during the most windy months of the year. In this context, the present study aimed at calculating how a potential increase of up to 4°C in mean annual temperature might modify the duration of soil frost and the depth of frozen soil in forests and consequently increase the risk of windthrow. The risk was evaluated by combining the simulated critical windspeeds needed to uproot Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) under unfrozen soil conditions with the possible change in the frequency of these winds during the unfrozen period. The evaluation of the impacts of elevated temperature on the frequency of these winds at times of unfrozen and frozen soil conditions was based on monthly wind speed statistics for the years 1961–1990 (Meteorological Yearbooks of Finland, 1961–1990). Frost simulations in a Scots pine stand growing on a moraine sandy soil (height 20 m, stand density 800 stems ha–1) showed that the duration of soil frost will decrease from 4–5 months to 2–3 months per year in southern Finland and from 5–6 months to 4–5 months in northern Finland given a temperature elevation of 4°C. In addition, it could decrease substantially more in the deeper soil layers (40–60 cm) than near the surface (0–20 cm), particularly in southern Finland. Consequently, tree anchorage may lose much of the additional support gained at present from the frozen soil in winter, making Scots pines more liable to windthrow during winter and spring storms. Critical wind-speed simulations showed mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 to be enough to uproot Scots pines under unfrozen soil conditions, i.e. especially slender trees with a high height to breast height diameter ratio (taper of 1:120 and 1:100). In the future, as many as 80% of these mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 would occur during months when the soil is unfrozen in southern Finland, whereas the corresponding proportion at present is about 55%. In northern Finland, the percentage is 40% today and is expected to be 50% in the future. Thus, as the strongest winds usually occur between late autumn and early spring, climate change could increase the loss of standing timber through windthrow, especially in southern Finland.     

Scots Pine Growth Trends in Northwestern Kola Peninsula as an Indicator of Positive Changes in the Carbon Cycle

Growth trends of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) at its northernmost extent may be an indicator of changes in the carbon cycle of terrestrial forest ecosystems. Using a method which removed age trends from the data, a time-series analysis of annual radial increment in wood over the last few decades compared with the period of the last registered warming (maximum around 1930–40), revealed elevated growth of 78% for trees 0–20 years old, 56% for trees 21–40 years old, 21% for trees 41–60 years old, and 10% for trees more than 101 years old. Increments of trees in the61–80 and 81–100 years old age classes from the two periods were similar. The higher rate of growth in recent times occurred despite a decrease in temperature after about 1940 and significant air pollution. During the last century growth of Scots pine increased for trees in all age groups, except for trees in the 81–100 year old age class for which it was constant. The average rates of growth were estimated at 0.016 mm/year for trees in the 0–20 year age class, 0.012 mm/year for the 21–40 year age class, 0.005 mm/year for the 41–60 year age class, 0.008 mm/year for the 61–80 year age class and 0.006 mm/year for trees in the greater than 101 year age class. The growth trends were unstable over time and took place concurrent with increasing oscillations in radial increment. The most probable reasons for the marked increase in radial increment growth of Scots pine in this region are climate warming and higher levels of carbon dioxide. Together these may produce a synergistic effect on growth.     

Temperature variability over the past millennium inferred from Northwestern Alaska tree rings

We describe a new tree-ring width data set of 14 white spruce chronologies for the Seward Peninsula (SP), Alaska, based on living and subfossil wood dating from 1358 to 2001 AD. A composite chronology derived from these data correlates positively and significantly with summer temperatures at Nome from 1910 to 1970, after which there is some loss of positive temperature response. There is inferred cooling during periods within the Little Ice Age (LIA) from the early to middle 1600s and late 1700s to middle 1800s; and warming from the middle 1600s to early 1700s. We also present a larger composite data set covering 978–2001 AD, utilizing the SP ring-width data in combination with archaeological wood measurements and other recent collections from northwestern Alaska. The Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method was employed to maximize potential low-frequency information in this data set. The RCS chronology shows intervals of persistent above-average growth around the time of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) early in the millennium, which are comparable to growth levels in recent centuries. There is a more sustained cold interval during the LIA inferred from the RCS record as compared to the SP ring-width series. The chronologies correlate significantly with Bering and Chukchi Sea sea surface temperatures and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. These atmosphere–ocean linkages probably account for the differences between these records and large-scale reconstructions of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere temperatures based largely on continental interior proxy data.     

Variations in the atmospheric electric field and Meteorological parameters at a Tropical coastal urban station during 1936–40 and 1962–66

Summary The seasonal and diurnal variations in the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field, air temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind speed were studied using the surface data for the two periods (1936–40) and (1962–66) recorded at the tropical urban station, Colaba, Bombay (18°51N, 72°49E, 11 m ASL), located on the west coast of India.The atmospheric electric field during the latter period (1962–66) is significantly higher (up to 42.3%) than the earlier period (1936–40). This has been attributed to the enhanced particulate concentrations in the atmosphere. The increase noticed in the atmospheric electric field is a maximum during winter and minimum during the monsoon. The atmospheric electric field exhibited a marked semi-diurnal oscillation with peaks at 0900 LST and 2200 LST during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons of both the periods. During the monsoon season the double oscillation is not marked.The variations noticed in the surface air temperature and the relative humidity are in agreement with those observed in the atmospheric electric field. The horizontal wind speed showed a decrease which has been attributed to the surface roughness resulting from urbanization.With 7 Figures     

Frequency-Dependent Climate Signal in Upper and Lower Forest Border Tree Rings in the Mountains of the Great Basin

We examine the relationships, over the past millennium, between tree-ring chronologies from long-lived pines at their upper and lower limits in four mountain ranges in and near to the semi-arid Great Basin. We confirm LaMarche's (1974a) finding, based on a single mountain range in this same region, and a much shorter period of comparison, that climate responses are frequency dependent. In particular, upper and lower forest border chronologies in each mountain range are strongly coherent at decadal periods and less, with particular strength in the 3–7 year band. Thisvariability is significantly correlated with precipitation. Conversely, we find no significant correlation between the low frequency fluctuations (60 years and longer) of upper and lower forest border chronologies. There are, however, significant correlations between the low-frequency components of the upper forest border chronologies in the different ranges, consistent with their containing a growing season temperature signal on decadal time scales. The four upper forest border chronologies all show an anomalous increase in growth since the late 19th century, and an apparent change in climate control of ring growth.     

A multiple linear statistical model for estimating the mean maximum urban heat island

Summary ¶This study examines the spatial and quantitative influence of urban factors on the surface air temperature field of the medium-sized of Szeged, Hungary, using mobile measurements under different weather conditions in the periods of March 1999–February 2000 and April–October 2002. Efforts have been concentrated on the development of the urban heat island (UHI) in its peak development during the diurnal cycle. Tasks included: (1) determination of spatial distribution of mean maximum UHI intensity and some urban surface parameters (built-up and water surface ratios, sky view factor, building height) using the standard Kriging procedure, as well as (2) development of a statistical model in the so-called heating and non-heating seasons using the above mentioned parameters and their areal extensions. In both seasons the spatial distribution of the mean maximum UHI intensity fields had a concentric shape with some local irregularities. The intensity reaches more than 2.1°C (heating season) and 3.1°C (non-heating season) in the centre of the city. For both seasons statistical model equations were determined by means of stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. As the measured and calculated mean maximum UHI intensity patterns show, there is a clear connection between the spatial distribution of the urban thermal excess and the examined land-use parameters, so these parameters play an important role in the evolution of the strong UHI intensity field. From the above mentioned parameters the sky-view factor and the building height were the most determining factors which are in line with the urban surface energy balance. Therefore in the future, using our model it will be possible to predict mean maximum UHI intensity in other cities, which have land-use features similar to Szeged.Received September 26, 2002; revised February 25, 2003; accepted March 22, 2003 Published online July 30, 2003     

NDVI-based increase in growth of temperate grasslands and its responses to climate changes in China

This study analyzes the temporal change of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for temperate grasslands in China and its correlation with climatic variables over the period of 1982–1999. Average NDVI of the study area increased at rates of 0.5% yr⁻¹ for the growing season (April–October), 0.61% yr⁻¹ for spring (April and May), 0.49% yr⁻¹ for summer (June–August), and 0.6% yr⁻¹ for autumn (September and October) over the study period. The humped-shape pattern between coefficient of correlation (R) of the growing season NDVI to precipitation and growing season precipitation documents various responses of grassland growth to changing precipitation, while the decreased R values of NDVI to temperature with increase of temperature implies that increased temperature declines sensitivity of plant growth to changing temperature. The results also suggest that the NDVI trends induced by climate changes varied between different vegetation types and seasons.     

Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071–2100)

We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100 with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2 than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns. In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall) are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer, when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response to local topographical and coastline features.     

Analysis of growth-environmental relationships in Jute (Corchorus capsularis L.)

Growth data were recorded at weekly intervals for four varieties of jute. Simultaneously, daily weather factors were recorded and averaged for the weeks corresponding to the growth rate periods. The growth rates were correlated with weather factors, age and cumulative growth of plants. Multiple regression analyses were made with the significant weather factors, viz., minimum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall; age and cumulative growth being independent variables against growth rate as a dependent variable. The resulting prediction equations were tested on independent growth and weather data. The predicted and observed values were in relatively close agreement for both growth rate and cumulative growth.     

Analysis of Growth-Environmental Relationships in Jute (Corchorus Capsularis L.)

Growth data were recorded at weekly intervals for four varieties of jute. Simultaneously, daily weather factors were recorded and averaged for the weeks corresponding to the growth rate periods. The growth rates were correlated with weather factors, age and cumulative growth of plants. Multiple regression analyses were made with the significant weather factors, viz., minimum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall; age and cumulative growth being independent variables against growth rate as a dependent variable. The resulting prediction equations were tested on independent growth and weather data. The predicted and observed values were in relatively close agreement for both growth rate and cumulative growth.     

Long-Term Variations in Seasonal Weather Conditions Important to Corn Production in Illinois

An analysis of long-term records ofcorn yields and seasonal weather conditions inIllinois found major temporal shifts and importantspatial variations in the types of seasonal weatherconditions, expressed as the normality of temperatureand rainfall conditions, that create positive andnegative impacts on yields. Nineteen different typesof corn-weather seasons (May–August) occurred during1901–1997, and 9 of these seasons accounted for mostof the high corn yields (top 20 of the 97) and 8seasonal types produced most low yields (lowest 20values). Assessment of the years with either high orlow yields revealed (1) some corn-weather seasonaltypes were uniformly distributed throughout thecentury; (2) others were unevenly time distributed,some occurring only in early decades and others onlyin the last few decades; and (3) certain weather typesvaried regionally. The yield responses to certainseasonal types varied over time, being good early andnot so later, or vice versa. The findings indicatethat time changes in farming practices, cornvarieties, and agricultural technology have alteredhow certain types of growing season weather affectcorn yields. Regional differences in yield outcomesfrom a given set of weather conditions reflect varyingsoil and climate differences across Illinois. Thespatial and temporal differences reveal the importanceof using weather-impact results to define seasonalweather extremes. The kinds of seasons creating highyields predominated during 1901–1910 and 1961–1997,and most seasons creating low yields were concentratedbetween 1911 and 1960. Comparison of the 1901–1997temporal distributions of yield extremes (high andlow) with the temporal distributions of cyclonepassages and the incidence of ENSO conditions thataffect growing season weather conditions revealed agenerally good relationship. The shifting temporalresponses to various kinds of seasonal weatherconditions during the 20th century reveal some ofthe difficulties facing efforts to project realisticand detailed impacts in agriculture from alteredfuture seasonal weather conditions.     

Sea Storms in the Adriatic Sea and the Western Mediterranean during the Last Millennium

Data regarding the frequency andoccurrence of sea storms in the Adriatic Sea and theWestern Mediterranean during the last millennium havebeen extracted from historical written sources. TheAdriatic Sea shows two anomalous periods of high stormfrequency: the first half of the 1500s and the secondhalf of the 1700s. In the 1500s the storms were morefrequent in autumn, while in the late 1700s theyoccurred at high frequency in winter. In the WesternMediterranean, storms had a higher frequency in thefirst half of the 1600s, with two lesser periods ofhigh frequency in the 1400s and at the end of the1700s. Although both records show a maximum frequencyof sea storms during the Spörer Minimum(1416–1534) of solar activity, sunspot series yieldno, or poor, correlation during the other periods oflowest activity, i.e., Oort Minimum (1010–1090), WolfMinimum (1282–1342), and Maunder Minimum (1645–1715),suggesting that a teleconnection between sea stormsand sunspots is improbable or masked in this region.No teleconnection was found either between the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surgesflooding Venice or the Western Mediterranean storms orbetween Venice surges and the Northern AtlanticOscillation (NAO).     

Maximum urban heat island intensity in a medium-sized coastal Mediterranean city

This paper studies the maximum intensity of the urban heat island (UHI) that develops in Volos urban area, a medium-sized coastal city in central Greece. The maximum temperature difference between the city center and a suburb is 3.4°C and 3.1°C during winter and summer, respectively, while during both seasons the average maximum UHI intensity is 2.0°C. The UHI usually starts developing after sunset during both seasons. It could be attributed to the different nocturnal radiative cooling rate and to the different anthropogenic heat emission rate that are observed at the city center and at the suburb, as well as to meteorological conditions. The analysis reveals that during both seasons the daily maximum hourly (DMH) UHI intensity is positively correlated with solar radiation and with previous day’s maximum hourly UHI intensity and negatively correlated with wind speed. It is also negatively correlated with relative humidity during winter but positively correlated with it during summer. This difference could be attributed to the different mechanisms that mainly drive humidity levels (i.e., evaporation in winter and sea breeze (SB) in summer). Moreover, it is found that SB development triggers a delay in UHI formation in summer. The impact of atmospheric pollution on maximum UHI intensity is also examined. An increase in PM10 concentration is associated with an increase in maximum UHI intensity during winter and with a decrease during summer. The impact of PM10 on UHI is caused by the attenuation of the incoming and the outgoing radiation. Additionally, this study shows that the weekly cycle of the city activities induces a weekly variation in maximum UHI intensity levels. The weekly range of DMH UHI intensity is not very large, being more pronounced during winter (0.4°C). Moreover, a first attempt is made to predict the DMH UHI intensity by applying regression models, whose success is rather promising.     

Response of high-mountain Altai thermal regime to climate global warming of recent decades

The paper presents a brief climatic characteristic and statistical analysis on dynamics of thermal regime in Altai Mountains. The close correlation between temperature series of the Russian and northern part of Mongolian Altai was determined. It was found that the rate of temperature increase for the period under consideration (1940?C2008) ranged from 0.19 to 0.53 °??/10?years, and the most significant increase was registered during the cold seasons. During the maximum global warming (1980?C1999), a 2?C4.5 times increase of annual average temperature was observed as compared to the period of 1940?C1979. The temperature series variations obtained with the Welch's method and wavelet analysis correspond to the periods of North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity variation.     

On the Urban Heat Island Effect Dependence on Temperature Trends

For U.S., Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (T_u-r) and rural temperatures (T_r) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual variability of temperature is generally lower in urban environments than in rural areas. This seems to hold true at low frequencies leading to opposite trends in the two variables. Hence, urban stations are prone to have lower trends in absolute value than rural ones. Therefore, regional data sets including records from urban locations, in addition to urban growth bias may have a second type of urban bias associated with temperature trends. A bulk estimate of this second urban bias trend for the contiguous United States during 1901–1984 indicates that it could be of the same order as the urban growth bias and of opposite sign. If these results could be extended to global data, it could be expected that the spurious influence of urban growth on global temperature trends during warming periods will be offset by the diminishing of the urban heat island intensity.     

Diurnal variations of saltation activity at Tazhong: the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert

The Taklimakan Desert of China is a region of frequent sandstorms and, thus, is a major sand and dust source area. Tazhong, a small mining village, is located near the center of the Taklimakan Desert at a distance of 220 km from the desert margins. Near Tazhong, we conducted a 2-year field investigation designed to monitor the diurnal variation of saltation activity using fast-responding piezoelectric saltation sensors (Sensits). Results suggest that saltation activity tends to occur more frequently during daytime in all seasons, relatively high levels of saltation activity are maintained from around 11:30 to around 16:30 local standard time (LST), because of stronger wind speed, higher soil temperature and lower relative humidity. During the spring and summer seasons, the saltation activity can occur at any time of the day, while there are some periods with zero saltation seconds at night and in the early morning during autumn and winter seasons. The results confirm that sandstorms tend to occur more frequently during daylight hours, so it may be helpful to forecast and guard against the occurrence of blowing sand or sandstorms in the Taklimakan Desert.     

Long-term changes of the surface air temperature in relation to solar inertial motion

The inertial motion of the Sun around the barycentre, or centre of mass, of the Solar System has been employed as the base in searching for possible influence of the Solar System as a whole on climatic processes, especially on the changes in surface air temperature. A basic cycle of about 180–200 years and its higher harmonics up to 30 years have been found in surface air temperature of central Europe since 1753, established from 13 continuous instrumental time series. These periods correspond to the periods of solar inertial motion. In the first half of the 19th century, when the solar motion was chaotic, this temperature was about 0.75°C lower than that in the 20th (1940–50) and the 18th (1760–70) centuries. The mentioned decades of long-term temperature maxima coincide with the central decades of the ordered (trefoil) motion of the Sun. The temperatures in coastal Europe have been found to have slightly different properties, especially on a long-time scale. The periods of 35–45 years are significantly pronounced in the coastal Europe temperature spectrum. The chaotic motion of the Sun in the next decades could decrease both the solar forcing and global surface air temperature.This research was performed with support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, Grant No. 205/93/0417, I. Charvátová: Prognosis of climate development in central Europe.     

ON THE DYNAMICAL ASPECTS OF THE MONSOON BOUNDARY LAYER

Characteristic variations in the three forces, viz., pressure gradientforce, Coriolis force and frictional force, in the monsoon boundary layerhave been explored with the help of a one-dimensional model. The windobservations carried out at an inland station during MONTBLEX-90 have beenutilised for this purpose. Variations were observed in the three forcesduring active and break monsoon periods. The height at which the Coriolis andpressure gradient forces showed balance ranged from 360–700 m and500–600 m during break and active periods respectively.     

Analysis of temperature variability in the mountain regions of the North Caucasus in 1961–2013

Annual and seasonal series of temperature values are analyzed using the data of Akhty, Teberda, and Terskol weather stations (the height above the sea level is >1000 m) for 1961-2013 as well as from 1976 to 2013 in order to reveal changes in the mountain climate in the period of contemporary global warming. Mean values, standard deviations, norms, and anomalies of annual and seasonal values of temperature as well as the rate of their variation in the mentioned periods are obtained. It is found that the temperature rise is observed in all seasons and for the year as a whole at the mountain weather stations except Terskol station. According to the results of studying temperature variability, Akhty and Teberda weather stations were united into the group “mountain weather stations” with the subsequent averaging of climatic variables. Terskol weather station was singled out as an independent high-mountain weather station.