High-Speed Solar Wind Streams and Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Cycle 24

An updated catalog is created of 303 well-defined high-speed solar wind streams that occurred in the time period 2009?–?2016. These streams are identified from solar and interplanetary measurements obtained from the OMNIWeb database as well as from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) database. This time interval covers the deep minimum observed between the last two Solar Cycles 23 and 24, as well as the ascending, the maximum, and part of the descending phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. The main properties of solar-wind high-speed streams, such as their maximum velocity, their duration, and their possible sources are analyzed in detail. We discuss the relative importance of all those parameters of high-speed solar wind streams and especially of their sources in terms of the different phases of the current cycle. We carry out a comparison between the characteristic parameters of high-speed solar wind streams in the present solar cycle with those of previous solar cycles to understand the dependence of their long-term variation on the cycle phase. Moreover, the present study investigates the varied phenomenology related to the magnetic interactions between these streams and the Earth’s magnetosphere. These interactions can initiate geomagnetic disturbances resulting in geomagnetic storms at Earth that may have impact on technology and endanger human activity and health.     

Relationship between the Parameters of Coronal Holes and High-Speed Solar Wind Streams over an Activity Cycle

The comparison of the brightness and area of coronal holes (CH) to the solar wind speed, which was started by Obridko et al. (Solar Phys. 260, 191, 2009a) has been continued. While the previous work was dealing with a relatively short time interval 2000 – 2006, here we have analyzed the data on coronal holes observed in the Sun throughout activity Cycle 23. A catalog of equatorial coronal holes has been compiled, and their brightness and area variations during the cycle have been analyzed. It is shown that CH is not merely an undisturbed zone between the active regions. The corona heating mechanism in CH seems to be essentially the same as in the regions of higher activity. The reduced brightness is the result of a specific structure with the magnetic field being quasi-radial at as low an altitude as 1.1R _⊙ or a bit higher. The plasma outflow decreases the measure of emission from CH. With an adequate choice of the photometric boundaries, the CH area and brightness indices display a fairly high correlation (0.6 – 0.8) with the solar wind velocity throughout the cycle, except for two years, which deviate dramatically – 2001 and 2007, i.e., the maximum and the minimum of the cycle. The mean brightness of the darkest part of CH, where the field lines are nearly radial at low altitudes, is of the order of 18 – 20% of the solar brightness, while the brightness of the other parts of the CH is 30 – 40%. The solar wind streams originate at the base of the coronal hole, which acts as an ejecting nozzle. The solar wind parameters in CH are determined at the level where the field lines are radial.     

Solar Rotation Rate during Solar Activity Cycle 23

We studied the solar rotation rate and its temporal change, using the sunspot data obtained during activity cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). The equatorial rotation rate is nearly the same as in the former cycle 22, while the latitudinal gradient of differential rotation considerably increased. Comparison of our results with others indicates the existence of a long-term periodicity of about eight cycles in differential rotation. In addition, no significant asymmetry in differential rotation between the northern and southern hemispheres during cycle 23 was found. The equatorial rotation rate and the latitudinal gradient of the differential rotation in the period of cycle 23 are approximately constant, except for the initial and final phases in the cycle.     

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: II. Forecasting the Geomagnetic Effects

We present a simple method of forecasting the geomagnetic storms caused by high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind. The method is based on the empirical correlation between the coronal hole area/position and the value of the Dst index, which is established in a period of low interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) activity. On average, the highest geomagnetic activity, i.e., the minimum in Dst, occurs four days after a low-latitude coronal hole (CH) crosses the central meridian. The amplitude of the Dst dip is correlated with the CH area and depends on the magnetic polarity of the CH due to the Russell – McPherron effect. The Dst variation may be predicted by employing the expression Dst(t)=(−65±25×cos λ)[A(t ^*)]^0.5, where A(t ^*) is the fractional CH area measured in the central-meridian slice [−10°,10°] of the solar disc, λ is the ecliptic longitude of the Earth, ± stands for positive/negative CH polarity, and t−t ^*=4 days. In periods of low ICME activity, the proposed expression provides forecasting of the amplitude of the HSS-associated Dst dip to an accuracy of ≈30%. However, the time of occurrence of the Dst minimum cannot be predicted to better than ±2 days, and consequently, the overall mean relative difference between the observed and calculated daily values of Dst ranges around 50%.     

Study of Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations Associated with Anomalous,Long-Duration High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2003

High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December) to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together, as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS.     

Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23

During solar cycle 23, which is now close to its end, variations of the total solar irradiance were measured by six different instruments, providing four independent time series of the irradiance variation over the complete solar cycle. A new composite time series constructed using five of these six instruments provides unprecedented instrument stability for the study of the open question of solar irradiance variations between minima. An independent analysis of the different composite time series is performed through an empirical proxy model fit. The new composite is fitted with 0.96 correlation (R ²=93%) and RMS error of 0.15 W m⁻², thus reaching the limit of the individual instrument stabilities. Both the measurements and the model indicate that for the current cycle the minimum irradiance level has not yet been reached. Therefore we use the model to extrapolate measurements up to 2008 when the minimum irradiance level is expected. If we assume that there will be no changes in the solar irradiance from 2006 to 2008 that are not captured by the regression model, it can be predicted that there will be no variation of the solar minimum irradiance level during cycle 23 with an uncertainty of ±0.14 W m⁻².     

Study of Distribution and Asymmetry of Solar Active Prominences during Solar Cycle 23

In this article we present the results of a study of the spatial distribution and asymmetry of solar active prominences (SAP) for the period 1996 through 2007 (solar cycle 23). For more meaningful statistical analysis we analyzed the distribution and asymmetry of SAP in two subdivisions viz. Group1 (ADF, APR, DSF, CRN, CAP) and Group2 (AFS, ASR, BSD, BSL, DSD, SPY, LPS). The North – South (N – S) latitudinal distribution shows that the SAP events are most prolific in the 21° to 30° slice in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; the East – West (E – W) longitudinal distribution study shows that the SAP events are most prolific (best observable) in the 81° to 90° slice in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. It was found that the SAP activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycles. The present study indicates that during the rising phase of the cycle the number of SAP events are roughly equal in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, activity in the Southern Hemisphere has been dominant since 1999. Our statistical study shows that the N – S asymmetry is more significant then the E – W asymmetry.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.     

Flow Sources and Formation Laws of Solar Wind Streams

The large-scale stream structure of the solar wind flow is studied in the main acceleration zone from 10 to 40 solar radii from the Sun. Three independent sets of experimental data were used: radio astronomical observations of radio wave scattering using the large radio telescopes of the Lebedev Physical Institute; dual-frequency Doppler solar wind speed measurements from the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment during the spacecraft's two solar conjunctions in summer 1991 and winter 1995; solar magnetic field strength and configuration computed from Wilcox Solar Observatory data. Both the experimental data on the position of the transonic region of the solar wind flow and the solar wind speed estimates were used as parameters reflecting the intensity of the solar wind acceleration process. Correlation studies of these data with the magnetic field strength in the solar corona revealed several types of solar wind flow differing in their velocities and the location of their primary acceleration region.     

A Multispacecraft Analysis of a Small-Scale Transient Entrained by Solar Wind Streams

The images taken by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), part of the SECCHI imaging package onboard the pair of STEREO spacecraft, provide information on the radial and latitudinal evolution of the plasma compressed inside corotating interaction regions (CIRs). A plasma density wave imaged by the HI instrument onboard STEREO-B was found to propagate towards STEREO-A, enabling a comparison between simultaneous remote-sensing and in situ observations of its structure to be performed. In situ measurements made by STEREO-A show that the plasma density wave is associated with the passage of a CIR. The magnetic field compressed after the CIR stream interface (SI) is found to have a planar distribution. Minimum variance analysis of the magnetic field vectors shows that the SI is inclined at 54° to the orbital plane of the STEREO-A spacecraft. This inclination of the CIR SI is comparable to the inclination of the associated plasma density wave observed by HI. A small-scale magnetic cloud with a flux rope topology and radial extent of 0.08 AU is also embedded prior to the SI. The pitch-angle distribution of suprathermal electrons measured by the STEREO-A SWEA instrument shows that an open magnetic field topology in the cloud replaced the heliospheric current sheet locally. These observations confirm that HI observes CIRs in difference images when a small-scale transient is caught up in the compression region.     

Solar and Heliospheric Causes of Geomagnetic Perturbations during the Growth Phase of Solar Cycle 23

A database is compiled for the study of solar and heliospheric causes of geomagnetic perturbations with the daily average index A > 20 that were observed in the period 1997–2000. The number of such events (more than 200) progressively increased and fluctuated as the current solar cycle developed. It is established that geomagnetic storms are generated by dynamical processes and structures near the center of the solar disk in a zone of several tens of degrees, and these processes are responsible for the appearance in the Earth's region, within several tens of hours, of quasistationary and transient solar wind streams with a sufficiently strong southward component of the heliospheric magnetic field. These streams lasted more than a few hours. The following structures can serve as morphological indicators for the prediction of the appearance of such streams: (1) active and disappearing filaments derived from synoptic -maps of the Sun, (2) solar flares, (3) coronal holes and evolving active regions, and (4) the heliospheric current sheet. The geometry of coronal mass ejections needs further observational study.     

Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.     

Turbulence Heating for Protons in High-Speed Solar Wind

In high-speed solar wind, propagating Alfvén waves can be transferred into fast magnetosonic waves. When both the magnetic field strength and Alfvén wave velocity approach zero, fast magnetosonic waves will be transferred into ion-acoustic waves. As the phase velocity of ion-acoustic waves is slightly greater than the thermal velocity of protons, the turbulence energy of ion-acoustic waves can largely be absorbed by protons and can cause the mean temperature of protons to be greater than that of electrons by stochastic turbulence heating of ion-acoustic waves for protons.     

Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity

The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21?–?24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975?–?2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M- or X-flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004?–?2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check the NOAA events listings where possible. We note that this measure of solar activity does not correlate with the solar cycle. The anomalous peak in flare productivity immediately preceded the long solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24.     

A Prediction of the Peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagneticaa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number of 158 (± 18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, which typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.     

Evidence Linking Slow Solar Wind Streams to Long-Decay X-Ray Events

Outflow of slow solar wind from solar active regions has been reported in recent years by many different authors. Therefore, in this paper we have studied synoptic maps of the solar wind density (SWD) based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data for available parts of all the years 1991–1994 and 1997–2001 to verify correlations of maxima in SWD with sources in active regions. We have found convincing evidence that eruptive flares in active regions, and thus X-ray long-decay events (LDEs) in general, can produce short-lived enhancements of the SWD. However, we were not able to get statistically convincing evidence that active regions can be permanent sources of slow solar wind, and propose three possible reasons for this negative result.     

High-Speed Solar wind Streams and Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations During 1991–1996

High-speed plasma streams identified in the solar wind measurements can be separated into two categories: coronal-hole-associated streams and flare-generated streams. Effects of these plasma streams on cosmic-ray intensity are studied for the period of 1991–1996. It is investigated that both of these high-speed solar wind plasma streams (CS and FGS) are found equally effective in producing the cosmic-ray intensity decrease on short-term basis.     

Contrast of Coronal Holes and Parameters of Associated Solar Wind Streams

It is shown that the contrast of coronal holes, just as their size, determines the velocity of the solar wind streams. Fully calibrated EIT images of the Sun have been used. About 450 measurements in 284 Å have been analyzed. The time interval under examination covers about 1500 days in the declining phase of cycle 23. All coronal holes recorded for this interval in the absence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been studied. The comparison with some other parameters (e.g. density, temperature, magnetic field) was carried out. The correlations with the velocity are rather high (0.70?–?0.89), especially during the periods of moderate activity, and could be used for everyday forecast. The contrast of coronal holes is rather small.