Drought and water policy in Australia: Challenges for the future illustrated by the issues associated with water trading and climate change adaptation in the Murray–Darling Basin

This paper reviews historical and existing drought and water policy in Australia in order to gain a sense of the strengths and weaknesses in enabling effective adaptation to climate change. In particular, (a) the social, economic, and environmental costs and benefits of water trading and (b) the limitations of using ‘market-based’ instruments (MBIs), like water trading, for adapting to drought and water security related climate change impacts are investigated. It was found that water trading has potential as a climate change adaptation strategy with many benefits experienced in previous and current versions of water trading. However, there are also limitations and those negatively impacted by water trading are hit hard. These social impacts of water trading have not been thoroughly investigated and are not well understood. Significant uncertainty also exists around the impacts of water trading on the environment (e.g. changed hydrological regimes, underestimation of sustainable environmental flows etc.). Proper quantification of these impacts is needed, however, it is a complex task given Australia's large hydroclimatic variability and the current lack of understanding as to how to optimise water needs of the environment, humans, agriculture and other industries. It appears that ‘cap and trade’ quantity-based MBIs such as water trading will eventually do what they are designed to do (i.e. reallocate a resource to ‘high value’ users). However, given that the ‘low value’ users in this case are agriculture and town/urban water supply (not including drinking water) and the ‘high value’ users are mining, manufacturing, and electricity production (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions), do we really want the water trading MBI to achieve its objective? And, what would the social and environmental ramifications of such a shift in water use within Australia be? These questions, along with the limitations and potential implications of using water trading (and MBIs in general) as a climate change adaptation tool, must be carefully considered if past Australian drought and water policy failures are not to be repeated.     

Synoptic reasons for heavy snowfalls in the Polish – German lowlands

Summary Daily circulation patterns responsible for heavy snowfalls in the Polish – German lowlands were analysed. Composite maps of sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height means and anomalies were constructed for the days with an increase in snow cover depth by ≥5 cm. Contour maps show negative anomalies of SLP and 500 hPa level over central Europe, indicating a low pressure system. Strong positive anomalies of SLP appear over Scandinavia and the northern Atlantic with the centre of positive anomalies located over Iceland. Weaker negative anomalies are observed in the Azores region. This confirms the strong negative correlation between snow cover appearance and the North Atlantic Oscillation index in Europe. The days with heavy snowfalls were clustered using the Ward’s method. Three types of circulation patterns were distinguished, each of them characterised by a low pressure system over central Europe. Type 3 represents the northern position of the low with its centre over the Baltic Sea, Type 2 shows the southern position of the low with its centre over the Adriatic and the Ionic Sea and Type 1 represents the low location between the two previous patterns with a wide meridional trough over the Atlantic. Author’s address: Ewa Bednorz, Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Adam Mickiewicz University, ul. Dzięgielowa 27, 61-680 Poznań, Poland.     

Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period

Long-term variations of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) and precipitation records in southern Brazil are investigated for the 1913–2006 period. These variations are carefully analyzed for seasonal and annual indices, taken as regional averages. For this purpose, the serial correlation and trend of the indices are investigated using the run and Mann–Kendall tests. The significant trends are obtained from linear least-square fits. The annual and seasonal TMIN indices show significant warming trends with magnitudes (1.7°C per 100 years for annual index) comparable to those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but lower than those found for the southern Brazil in another previous work. Regarding the two other variables, the indices show significant trends only for summer, being a cooling trend of 0.6°C per 100 years for the TMAX and an increasing trend of 93 mm per 100 years over an average summer precipitation of 367 mm. Concerning the decadal analysis, the 1920s present the lowest annual, autumn, and spring TMIN and the 1990s, the highest ones. The 1970s is the decade with the lowest summer TMAX, and the 1940s the decade with the highest one. The driest decade is the 1940s and the wettest, the 1980s.     

Is irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin well prepared to deal with reductions in water availability?

The “Big Dry”, a prolonged dry period in Australia from 1997 to 2009, dried out much of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and resulted in large agricultural losses and degraded river ecosystems. Climate projections are that dry conditions in the MDB are likely to be more regular and severe than ever before, and recent policy initiatives are likely to reduce consumptive water use and redirect water to ecosystem management. This paper aims to develop an understanding of the interactions between water policy and irrigation practices by deriving lessons from drought management in irrigated agriculture of the MDB during the Big Dry, and furthermore, to draw out lessons to enhance the preparedness of irrigated agriculture for a future drier climate and reduced water availability. Reviews of irrigation farmers’ practices, attitudes and capacity to manage during prolonged droughts in the MDB, and the evolution of agricultural water policy in Australia since 1990 were made. It is clear that farmers could be better prepared to deal with a drier climate if their water management practices, e.g. irrigation methods and soil moisture measuring tools are improved, if the impediments to the uncertainty of water allocation and low water availability could be overcome, and if well-targeted research and extension could assist farmers to use water more wisely. It is also clear that Australian water policy could be better prepared in terms of assisting irrigated agriculture to deal with a drier climate. Key areas are reduction of barriers and distortions to water trading, optimizing the environmental water allocation, and seeking mutual benefits between environmental water allocation and irrigated agriculture, improvement of the cost-effectiveness of investments in water supply infrastructure, facilitating carryover and capacity sharing at larger scales, and provision of accurate, accessible and useful water information at different scales. An approach to irrigation practice and water policy is proposed based on past experience and potential opportunities. The approach is a set of linked strategies for more robust agricultural production and a more sustainable environment under a drier climate and reduced water availability.     

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and then evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m^?2 a^?1, precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a^?1, minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02°C a^?1, maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01°C a^?1, FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a^?1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a^?1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a^?1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for wheat and 51.4 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for maize at the northern sites, Beijing and Tianjin. They had no significant changes in the southern sites, Jinan and Zhengzhou. Irrigation, fertilization development and crop variety improvement are main factors to contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat–maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat–maize double crop rotations in the NCP.     

Trends in the frequency of synoptic types in central-southern Chile in the period 1961–2012 using the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification

Atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Chile (42° 30′ S) were studied in order to determine and analyse the most characteristic synoptic types and their recent trends, as well as to gain an understanding of how they are associated with low-frequency variability patterns. According to the Jenkinson and Collison (J&C) classification method, a 16-point grid of sea-level pressure data was employed. The findings reveal that some synoptic types show statistically significant trends with a 95% confidence level, positively for anticyclonic westerly hybrids (AW) and advective types for third and fourth quadrant wind flows (W, NW, and N) and negatively for SW and cyclonic hybrids (CS and CSW). A model has been constructed of the linear regression of some weather types with teleconnections that most affect Chile: the undetermined types (U), AW were associated with El Niño or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas the cyclonic northerly and cyclonic northeasterly types (CN and CNE) were associated with La Niña or cool phase of the PDO. The weather types associated with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in its positive phase are anticyclonic northerly and northeasterly and northerly advection types, while in its negative phase are cyclonic southwesterly and advection types.     

Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982–2009

Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982–2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than ?5?%?dec ^?1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5?%?dec ^?1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial “non-variability” in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.     

Trends and variability of storminess in the Northeast Atlantic region, 1874–2007

This article builds on the previous studies on storminess conditions in the northeast North Atlantic–European region. The period of surface pressure data analyzed is extended from 1881–1998 to 1874–2007. The seasonality and regional differences of storminess conditions in this region are also explored in more detail. The results show that storminess conditions in this region have undergone substantial decadal or longer time scale fluctuations, with considerable seasonal and regional differences. The most notable differences are seen between winter and summer, and between the North Sea area and other parts of the region. In particular, winter storminess shows an unprecedented maximum in the early 1990s in the North Sea area and a steady upward trend in the northeastern part of the region, while it appears to have declined in the western part of the region. In summer, storminess appears to have declined in most parts of this region. In the transition seasons, the storminess trend is characterized by increases in the northern part of the region and decreases in the southeastern part, with increases in the north being larger in spring. In particular, the results also show that the earliest storminess maximum occurred in summer (around 1880), while the latest storminess maximum occurred in winter (in the early 1990s). Looking at the annual metrics alone (as in previous studies), one would conclude that the latest storminess maximum is at about the same level as the earliest storminess maximum, without realizing that this is comparing the highest winter storminess level with the highest summer storminess level in the period of record analyzed, while winter and summer storminess conditions have undergone very different long-term variability and trends. Also, storminess conditions in the NE Atlantic region are found to be significantly correlated with the simultaneous NAO index in all seasons but autumn. The higher the NAO index, the rougher the NE Atlantic storminess conditions, especially in winter and spring.     

Trends and uncertainties in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau, 1951–2013

Trends and uncertainties of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are evaluated by using observations at 100 meteorological stations during the period 1951–2013. The sampling error variances of gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box of data. The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate TP averages, their trends, and associated uncertainties. It is shown that large sampling error variances dominate northern and western TP, while small variances appear over southern and eastern TP. Every month from January to December has a positive linear trend during the study period. February has the largest trend of 0.34 ± 0.18°C (10 yr)^–1, and April the smallest at 0.15 ± 0.11°C (10 yr)^–1. The uncertainties decrease steadily with time, implying that they are not large enough to alter the TP warming trend.     

Trends and Uncertainties in Surface Air Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau,1951–2013

Trends and uncertainties of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)are evaluated by using observations at 100 meteorological stations during the period 1951–2013.The sampling error variances of gridded monthly data are estimated for every month and every grid box of data.The gridded data and their sampling error variances are used to calculate TP averages,their trends,and associated uncertainties.It is shown that large sampling error variances dominate northern and western TP,while small variances appear over southern and eastern TP.Every month from January to December has a positive linear trend during the study period.February has the largest trend of 0.34±0.18°C(10 yr)~(–1),and April the smallest at 0.15±0.11°C(10 yr)~(–1).The uncertainties decrease steadily with time,implying that they are not large enough to alter the TP warming trend.     

Influences of the Clearness Index on UV Solar Radiation for Two Locations in the Tibetan Plateau——Lhasa and Haibei

Ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation has a significant influence on human health, the environment and climate. A series of measurements, including UV radiation (290-400 nm) and global solar radiation (Rs), were continuously recorded from August 2004 at the Lhasa and Haibei sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Both observation sites' altitudes are above 3000 m and have similar meteorological conditions. The data from 2005-2006 was used to identify the varying characteristics of UV radiation. It's relation to the clearness index Ks, the relative optical mass mr, and Rs were established. The annual mean values of total daily UV radiation are 0.92 and 0.67 MJ m-2 at Lhasa and Haibei, respectively. The UV radiation in Lhasa represented 4.6% of the global solar radiation while in Haibei this percentage was 4.2%. In the case of clear days (Ks > 0.8), these percentages ranged between 4.0% and 4.5% in Lhasa and between 5.1% and 5.5% in Haibei. In the case of cloudy days (Ks < 0.4), these percentages ranged from 4.4% to 6.8% in Lhasa and from 5.1% to 5.5% in Haibei. The maximum values of UV radiation for each relative optical mass diminished exponentially with mr. Thus, for Lhasa and Haibei, UV=46.25m-r 1.29, and UV=51.76m-r 1.42, respectively. The results of this study can be used to obtain more UV radiation data for the study of UV climate characteristics, the effects of UV on ecological processes and the feedback of the thinning of the stratospheric ozone, from more routine measurements Rs data.     

Peculiarities of distribution and transformation of water in the Keret’ River tidal estuary

Presented are the results of the study of the processes of interaction between the river and sea water in the estuary of the Keret’ River flowing into the White Sea. The studies were carried out using the georadar method which enables one to register the boundary between fresh and salt water with the high spatial and temporal resolution. The use of this method helped to determine the boundaries of the area of distribution of fresh water in the estuary during different phases of the tidal cycle and to reveal the typical fluctuations of the boundary between fresh and salt water manifested at different values of river runoff and weather conditions.     

Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation strategies for a water scarce future in Australia

Climate change is likely to require irrigators in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin to cope with less water, which will require ongoing farm adjustment. Possible incremental adjustment strategies include expansive and accommodating responses, such as irrigators buying land and water, increasing their irrigated area, changing crop mix and adopting efficient infrastructure. Contractive strategies include selling land and water, and decreasing their irrigated area. Using historical surveys we provide a comparison of irrigators’ planned and actual strategies over the past fifteen years, thereby offering a strong foundation to support analysing future adaptation strategies. We explore influences associated with farm adjustment strategies, and in particular the role that climate change beliefs play. Farmers convinced that climate change is occurring are more likely to plan accommodating, but not expansive, strategies. The relationship between climate change belief and adopting various adaptive strategies was found to be often endogenous, especially for accommodating strategies. Such results suggest the need for irrigation farming policies to be targeted at improving irrigators’ adaptability to manage water variability, and its link with farm future viability.     

Cloud and water vapour motion vectors in tropical cyclone track forecasting — A review

Summary Tropical cyclone track prediction remains a vexing problem in meteorology, particularly for numerical weather prediction. While there has been significant improvement in forecast skill in recent years, errors in prognosis, particularly for recurving cyclones still remain unacceptably high. Consistent with track prediction being to a significant extent an initial value problem, there has been, in recent years, cogent evidence that, a combination of high resolution numerical modelling, the use of appropriate assimilation techniques and the exploitation of high spatial and temporal resolution observations can improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts.Before landfall, tropical cyclones have their genesis and move over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Here the prediction of their movement is an application for which remotely sensed data are quintessential. In this context, this paper examines the increasingly important contribution of cloud and water vapour motion vectors to tropical cyclone prediction and evaluates their import to accurate prediction in terms of both the numerical modelling characteristics and the data assimilation techniques employed.Overall, it is shown that cloud and water vapour drift winds have made a significant contribution to the tropical cyclone track forecasting problem when used with conventional intermittent assimilation techniques, such as 6-hourly cycling, and, more recently, with continuous assimilation techniques such as 3- and 4-dimensional variational assimilation. These continuous assimilation schemes appear to have the potential to use near continuous asynoptic wind data in the most effective way.With 3 Figures     

Conditions for Producing and Maintaining Plasma Ball Lightning in the Atmosphere

Based on the results of plasma experiments and research work done by Dawson and Jones, Trubnikov, Endean, and other researchers, three requirements for producing and maintaining plasma ball lightning have been found: 1) rotation of plasma, 2) the density of charged particles nc > 3.15 × 10-10ω2,3) a stable confinement of plasma. In this model, the energy density of ball lightning ranged from 10-2 J / cm3 to 104 J/ cm3, the formation, shape, stability, energy, maintaining processes and other properties of ball lightning were explained reasonably.     

Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS

• The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach.

• Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination.

• Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.

     

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.