重庆市农业发展的几个问题及对策

分析和阐述了目前重庆市农业发展的几个问题，在此基础上，提出了解决这些问题的对策和建议。     

我国气象影视人才的现状及其出路

通过对我国气象影视从业人员的现状进行调查和数据分析,探讨其中存在的多方面问题。结合实际情况,分析了这些问题形成的原因。在综合考查分析后,就加强我国气象影视人才的培养,提出了相关的对策和措施。     

川北地区油橄榄发展的气候生态问题及对策

本文在对川北部份地区油橄榄生态资源考察的基础上，利用农业气象学和小气候原理，分析了油橄榄发展中存在的气候生态适应性问题，从油橄榄种植产业化和规模经济的角度，提出了解决这些问题的具体对策和建议。     

川北地区油橄榄发展的气候生态问题及对策

本文在对川北部份地区油橄榄生态资源考察的基础上,利用农业气象学和小气候原理,分析了油橄榄发展中存在的气候生态适应性问题,从油橄榄种植产业化和规模经济的角度,提出了解决这些同题的具体对策和建议.     

新疆霾天气监测的优化对策研究

针对新疆气象局普查全疆105个国家级气象站1951—2008年人工观测的霾天气历史记录时,发现新疆霾天气人工观测历史资料的统计数据出现明显不符合实际情况的异常现象,为探究出现这些异常现象的根本原因,研究人员分别采用历史资料统计法、问卷调查法、归纳分析法等多种方法,面向全疆观测员、预报员、业务管理人员等收集其对霾天气监测现状的看法和建议,进而归纳和总结出新疆霾天气监测业务中存在的主要问题,并针对存在的问题提出新疆霾天气监测的优化对策与措施,这些优化对策与措施已经应用于新疆气象观测站的日常霾天气业务中,且取得了一定的成效。     

1994-1998年《浙江气象科技》引文分析和论文作者分析

运用文献计量学原理,对1994-1998年5年间《浙江气象科技》所发表的308篇论文所附参考文献（即引文）和论文作者的分布情况进行了定量统计分析,发现:①《浙江气象科技》在我省气象科技中具有重要地位;②论文产出量具有地区集中性和作者集中性。同时,还分析了引文著录中所存在的问题,提出了解决这些问题的对策。     

气象要素对梅州沙田柚产量的影响及对策

分析了梅州气象要素如气温、光照、雨水对梅州沙田柚产量的影响,并针对这些影响提出了解决的对策.     

论龙眼、荔枝生产的若干农业气象问题及对策

通过对龙眼、荔枝长期观察结果的分析,认为树体和花序受寒（冻）害、冬季连阴雨寡照致使成花率低,花期低温阴雨或高温干旱天气,使果树不能正常开花座果或果实败育等,是广西龙眼、荔枝生产上的主要农业气象问题。并就这些问题的发生机理及对策进行探讨。     

全球变暖对甘肃省经济、社会和生态环境的影响及其对策

根据相关资料,分析了全球变暖的事实以及在全球变暖的大背景下对甘肃省生态环境和社会、经济的影响,并提出了应对气候变化、实现可持续发展的对策。这些对策对甘肃省而言,归纳起来主要是两个问题：一是用好水、管好水、节约用水,开发利用祁连山空中云水资源,实施人工增雨(雪);二是沙的问题。关键是遏制沙漠化进程,使用“区域气候—生态模式”,根据各地的地形、地貌、气候、水文、土壤等生态环境,定量计算各地林、草种植的品种、布局、走向、承载力,以提出恢复植被的最优方案。     

对加快气象信息服务商业化进程的思考

从现阶段我国的气象信息商业化服务状况出发，介绍了国外的三种气象信息商业化服务模式。揭示了实现气象信息服务商业化的必要性，指出了气象信息服务商业化进程中的若干问题，并针对这些问题提出了加快气象信息服务商业化进程的对策。     

新一代天气雷达CINRAD/CC接收系统典型故障分析与处理

分析CINRAD/CC雷达接收系统工作原理,给出了CINRAD/CC雷达接收系统关键点参数表,介绍了雷达接收系统常用的故障分析方法,通过对接收系统故障现象、故障原因分析,归纳总结出6类接收系统典型故障及其处理方法.随着雷达使用年限的增加,雷达设备故障率也在增加,而故障维修工作纷繁复杂,这就需要把雷达故障进行总结、分类,同一种类型的故障对应相应故障处理方法,这样就能大大提高雷达维修的时效性.     

钉钉机器人在气象设备和网络监控中的应用

为保证各类气象设备和网络稳定运行,出现故障及时通知到人,针对目前气象设备监视和报警存在的问题,设计开发气象设备及网络监控报警软件,出现异常情况通过钉钉机器人开放接口发送报警信息到手机和电脑钉钉群,提醒业务人员及时处理故障,实现气象设备、网络情况自动监控,自动报警功能。通过业务运行表明,该软件在气象设备及网络监控业务中能提高发现设备和网络故障的时效,自动化程度高,缩短了维护人员处理故障的时效性,是钉钉机器人在气象设备和网络监测报警应用的积极探索。     

SOME PROBLEMS AND TREATMENT IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA

In this paper,some problems of regression analysis in the meteorological application are discussed andmain reasons for statistical inference failures are analysed.We may find the failure problems with diagnos-tic method and solve them by different treatment.It has been proved that the treatment make the accuracyand stability of forecasting improved greatly.     

基于虚拟路由冗余协议和双向转发检测的基层气象通信网络设计和实现

目前陕西省气象宽带通信网省、市、县3级连接中,区县局出口是以单台路由器连接双运营商线路接入市局,这一架构造成明显的路由器单点故障风险,同时也不能有效解决台站各业务之间带宽竞争的问题。据此改造市-县级网络拓扑,在区县局出口部署双路由器,分别对接电信、广电运营商线路。启用VRRP(虚拟路由冗余协议),并配置VRRP的负载分担模式,对台站业务根据带宽消耗和时效性高低进行分流传输,在链路冗余的基础上实现了双机热备和负载均衡。同时配置BFD(双向转发检测协议)和VRRP联动,通过BFD监控VRRP路由器的上行链路状态,实现主备路由器的快速切换。经过在西安市多个区县局的广域网建设实践和一年多的业务运行,收到了预期的效果,方案可为同级气象部门提供参考。     

气象信息网络运维保障典型个例分析

选取了气象信息网络运行维护保障中出现频率较高,故障现象较典型的个例进行分析。针对不同的个例分别总结了具体的诊断处理流程和相应故障排查方法。 在气象上行报文传输故障个例和防火墙设备故障导致数据接收异常个例诊断分析中采用“排除法”,能够快速缩小故障范围定位到故障发生点;按照网络拓扑图形的路由走向采用了“分段检测方法”可以迅速追踪定位到通信网络故障造成的报文传输异常个例的故障源;在气象下行报文传输故障个例中如果根据气象数据下行广播流程采用逆向顺序反查故障原因可以快速找到异常原因。     

自动气象站DT50数据采集器故障检修方法

针对近年来山东省CAWS600-B型自动气象站出现的DT50数据采集器故障及其修复情况,分类介绍了DT50四种常见故障的实验室检修方法。在实验室进行DT50检修时,首先采用专用通信线直接连接DT50和主控机的简化连接方式实现DT50的数据通信;要素数据异常故障可考虑更换通道选择芯片CD4052进行排除;通信故障一般可通过更换通信驱动模块SP312进行排除;采集器内置程序跑飞时,需要重新写入DT50内置程序;DT50内部时间显示错误时考虑更换下电路板电池;对DT50故障检修过程中的注意事项进行了说明。通过以上四种故障检修方法,能够成功修复除数据小幅超差以外的绝大多数DT50故障。     

Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia—the effect of sampling model results based on performance

One of the aims of developing new climate projections is to better address the requirements of stakeholders—particularly those who require less uncertainty and/or probabilistic information to work with. Projections are continually updated over time as more, and newer, climate model simulations of the future become available but this can introduce problems when it comes to interpreting large samples with differing results. Regional projections of rainfall are characterised by a high level of uncertainty, partly because of different sensitivities of the different models. Some models can be demonstrated to perform relatively poorly when assessed by their ability to simulate present-day means and variability and here we show that the uncertainty in model projections can potentially be reduced when the projection from these models are either discounted or ignored entirely. When applied to the Murray Darling Basin of south east Australia, it is possible to demonstrate a clustering of the results from the better performing models. These indicate that the rainfall changes to be expected as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations into the future are more likely to be at the drier end of the full set of model results. This occurs because the better performing models indicate decreases in winter and spring which are significantly different to the changes indicated by the other models. These results suggest that there are compelling reasons for discounting, if not entirely dismissing, some model results based on their failure to satisfy some basic performance criteria.     

气象科研应用系统中的计算机故障检测

气象科学研究领域的计算机系统应用,显著有别于气象业务和自动化办公。其突出特点是电源启动频繁、故障率高、故障范围广、故障定位难等。该文的目的在于探讨故障判断的技术方法并提出了“层次化有效功能检测法”及其应用思路和实例分析。该技术方法适用于气象科研应用系统产生的各种故障,在气象科研等保障工作中解决了大量的实际问题,有较好的效果。     

Lessons from JI and GIS for post-2012 carbon finance mechanisms in Russia and Ukraine

The main incentives for Russia's and Ukraine's participation in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol were its mechanisms. The opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from Joint Implementation (JI) and the Green Investment Scheme (GIS) during this first period. Four key factors that explain the success of these mechanisms are identified: the design of the mechanisms, the role of the private sector in their implementation, the coordination required, and the political will gained. Even though a weak rule of law, problems with policy implementation, and the ambiguous role of private-sector actors are not ‘make or break’ issues, they are likely to defer future mechanisms. Success and failure will, rather, hinge on the priority these factors are accorded by the top leadership. It is likely that simple mechanisms that only involve a few actors will be less complicated to set up and run than, for instance, emissions trading schemes (which require domestic burden sharing). Project-based options in which domestic actors have gained experience may be better suited. However, any lessons prior to the new mechanisms taking a clearer shape must be considered as preliminary.

Policy relevance

The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, despite their problems, provided Russia and Ukraine with their main incentives for participation in the Protocol's first commitment period. As the chances that these countries will participate in the second commitment period seem slim, the opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from JI and GIS. The key factors that have determined the success and failure of these mechanisms are likely to be of relevance to future mechanisms. It is argued that – of the post-2012 options available – simple mechanisms with few actors involved should be chosen. Project-based options rather than emissions trading schemes may be more likely to succeed due to experience gained by domestic actors.