工业开采诱发地震的应力降研究现状和主要科学议题

诱发地震及其灾害风险已成为非常规油气资源开发和废水回注等新型工业活动顺利实施的重要威胁。应力降是反映地震破裂前后断层上平均应力差的物理量,对诱发地震中应力降的系统研究有助于揭示诱发地震的震源特征、高频地震动特征、构造背景和地震危险性。本文系统地总结了近20年来工业开采诱发地震中应力降的相关研究进展,分别从计算所用理论方法、获得的平均应力降数值、影响应力降数值的主客观因素、围绕应力降的重要科学讨论等方面做了归纳分析。介绍了直接进行谱拟合、经验格林函数(EGF)、谱叠加和广义反演3种适用性的计算方法,通过案例考察了工业开采诱发地震的应力降平均值,分析影响应力降测定数值的主客观因素,并总结应力降空间分布依赖性、与震源机制类型相依性、自相似性、深度依赖性等4个主要科学问题。同时,阐述了诱发地震应力降的测定可靠性仍未突破、主要科学问题存在广泛争议、在新型工业开采活动中具有重要应用潜力等现状。本文的总结分析可为从事新型能源开发、地震安全监管和科学研究领域的企业、管理人员和科学研究人员提供参考。     

西安地区的地热水开采与诱发地震关系的研究

通过对国内外众多震例的分析，发现了向深井抽（注）水（液体）诱发地震的一些普遍规律:诱发地震的震中在井位附近，震级小，震源浅且多为主余震型或震群型，绝少有孤立型地震发生；诱发地震的多少和大小与抽（注）水的压力和数量相关；诱发地震一般在钻井时注入泥浆、洗井时注入高压清水或正常的地下水开采等３种情况时马上发生，或滞后1～20天发生. 1990年以来西安地区大量开采地下热水，采水量逐年增多，水位逐年下降且具有夏高冬低等特征．西安地区的地震多为孤立型，震源都在10ｋｍ 以下，且多分布在西安外围地区，井群较密的城郊区鲜有地震发生；地震的频次和能量的释放与西安地区的地热水开采量和水位变化无明显的关系．因此，西安地区的地热水开采并未诱发西安及其周围地区的地震．      

页岩气开采水力压裂诱发四川盆地南部2018年12月M L 5.7地震和2019年1月M L 5.3地震

2018年12月16日,四川省兴文县发生了M L5.7地震(北纬28.239°,东经104.922°)。两个多星期以后的2019年1月3日,在其西边8km处发生了M L5.3地震。这两次地震事件是目前为止在长宁页岩气区块发生的最大的、最具破坏性的地震事件,对附近的农舍和建筑物造成了严重的破坏。虽然中国地震局发布这两个地震事件的常规处理得到震源深度都大于5km,但基于广义剪切粘贴法(gCAP)方法的矩心矩张量解,发现震源深度非常浅(M L5.7和M L5.3地震的震源深度分别为3km和1.8km)。此外,这两个地震事件都非常接近水力压裂(HF)井场,周围有很多水力压裂井在地震时正在进行压裂作业。一系列的证据链条表明这些地震是由2.5~3km深度处的水力压裂所诱发。证据包括地震和水力压裂井段之间的时空相关性、地震活动统计特性,以及触发那些现今应力场下产状不利于发生摩擦滑动的断层所需的流体超压力。自2014年开始规模化水力压裂以来,长宁区块至今共观察到11次M L≥4.0地震事件(其中包括3次M L≥5.0地震)。与常规构造地震活动相比,这些地震活动的大森型余震活动非常低。此外,对于触发M W≥3.5地震事件,所需流体超压力为0.3~5.8MPa。水力压裂在致裂区间以外由孔弹性效应产生的应力变化一般远小于1MPa。这些断层大多是未知的,而且在目前的构造应力场作用下,其产状不利于发生滑动破裂,所以流体超压力驱动已存在断层的再活化被认为是诱发这些异常的中强地震的原因。     

页岩气开采水力压裂诱发四川盆地南部2018年12月ML5.7地震和2019年1月ML5.3地震

2018年12月16日,四川省兴文县发生了M_L5.7地震(北纬28.239°,东经104.922°)。两个多星期以后的2019年1月3日,在其西边8km处发生了M_L5.3地震。这两次地震事件是目前为止在长宁页岩气区块发生的最大的、最具破坏性的地震事件,对附近的农舍和建筑物造成了严重的破坏。虽然中国地震局发布这两个地震事件的常规处理得到震源深度都大于5km,但基于广义剪切粘贴法(gCAP)方法的矩心矩张量解,发现震源深度非常浅(M_L5.7和M_L5.3地震的震源深度分别为3km和1.8km)。此外,这两个地震事件都非常接近水力压裂(HF)井场,周围有很多水力压裂井在地震时正在进行压裂作业。一系列的证据链条表明这些地震是由2.5～3km深度处的水力压裂所诱发。证据包括地震和水力压裂井段之间的时空相关性、地震活动统计特性,以及触发那些现今应力场下产状不利于发生摩擦滑动的断层所需的流体超压力。自2014年开始规模化水力压裂以来,长宁区块至今共观察到11次M_L≥4.0地震事件(其中包括3次...     

水力扩散与水库诱发地震关系的讨论

本文讨论了水力扩散和水库诱发地震与水文动力地质条件之间的联系,提出了水力扩散是水库诱发地震的主要原因。本文还建立了两个与水力扩散相联系的诱发震源模型——非应力增长模型和应力调整模型,並给出了该模型在水库地震预报中的应用条件和方法。     

澧水流域矿山开采与诱发地震

从澧水流域矿山开采现状入手,通过对几个矿震的剖析,总结了该区矿震的几个特点。结合地震地质条件,对澧水流域未来矿山诱发地震形势作了分析,对矿山诱发地震的监测与防治工作提出了建议。     

新丰江水库区水力扩散与诱发地震活动性分析

本文从水力学的观点分析了新丰江水库区水力扩散与诱发地震活动的影响因素，讨论了新丰江水库区水力扩散与诱发地震活动的时空特点及其形成原因。最后用地震面积扩展法分析讨论了新丰江水库区水力扩散率的动态变化及其大地震的发展趋势。指出新丰江库区基底断裂网络是影响其水力扩散与诱发地震活动最决定的因素，也是形成新丰江水库区水力扩散与诱发地震活动时空特，点最主要的原因，并提出６．１级主震发生一年半以后，水力扩散诱发大地震的可能性不复存在。     

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.     

Seismic loss and damage in light-frame wood buildings from sequences of induced earthquakes

Activities related to oil and gas production, especially deep disposal of wastewater, have led to sequences of induced earthquakes in the central United States. This study aims to quantify damage to and seismic losses for light-frame wood buildings when subjected to sequences of induced, small to moderate magnitude, events. To conduct this investigation, one- and two-story multifamily wood frame buildings are designed, and their seismic response dynamically simulated using three-dimensional nonlinear models, subjected to ground motion sequences recorded in induced events. Damage is quantified through seismic losses, which are estimated using the FEMA P-58 methodology. Results show that at levels of shaking experienced in recent earthquakes, minor damage, consisting of cracking of interior finishes and nonstructural damage to plumbing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, is expected, which is consistent with observed damage in these events. The study also examines how expected losses and building fragility will accumulate and/or change over a sequence of earthquakes. Results indicate that damage quantified in terms of absorbed hysteretic energy tended to accumulate over the sequences; this damage corresponds to elongation or widening of cracks. However, fragility is not significantly altered by damage in a preceding event, meaning structures are not becoming more vulnerable due to existing damage. In addition, sequences of events do not change losses if the building is only repaired once at the end of the sequence, as the worsening of damage does not alter repair actions. If repairs are conducted after each event, though, total seismic losses can increase greatly from the sequence.     

深层油气地球物理勘探基础研究

本文讨论当前我国深层油气地震勘探面临的难题及基础研究的三个主攻方向,包括：困难地区深层地震反射体准确成像,地震波场信息学、油气田直接预测的地球物理方法技术等.     

水库地震诱震区预测与强度评估

以四川西部地区几个水库诱发地震预测评估资料为基础,总结了水库诱发地震研究中对库区内诱震区段的５条预测依据及３条诱中度评估判断方法,其最终结论意见应以各条依据或方法为基础,综合评定。     

Analysis of bacterial diversity and metals in produced water, seawater and sediments from an offshore oil and gas production platform

Produced water is one of the largest waste products routinely discharged into the ocean from offshore oil and gas platforms. This study analyzed bacterial communities and metals in the produced water, surrounding seawater, and sediment around the Thebaud platform. The bacterial community within the produced water was different from the seawater (SAB = 13.3), but the discharge had no detectable effect on the bacterial communities in the seawater (SAB > 97). In contrast, genomic analysis of sediments revealed that the bacterial community from 250 m was different (SAB = 70) from other locations further from the discharge, suggesting that the produced water had a detectable effect on the bacterial community in the sediment closest to the discharge. These near-field sediments contained elevated concentrations of manganese and iron that are associated with the produced water effluent. The results suggested that the discharge of produced water has influenced the bacterial community structure of sediments adjacent to the platform.     

华北地区诱发地震预报能力统计模拟分析研究

用诱发地震的方法研究了1970年1月1日至1998年12月31日华北地区发生的A－F－B震的关系，以及诱发地震的空间分布特征。用统计模拟的检验方法分析了诱发地震的预报能力，结果表明诱发地震发生后在3年内200km范围内发生ML5.9级以上地震的概率为32％，大于将预报随机化计算的平均随机报准率与3倍均方差之和，认为在应用本研究方法选用的参数时，诱发地震含有地震前兆信息，有一定的预报能力。     

MT激电效应的模拟研究及在油气检测中的应用

本文引入Cole-Cole模型来模拟大地的激发极化效应,对三层水平地层且中间层为极化层的大地电磁测深的视电阻率进行了理论计算,分析了极化参数对视电阻率曲线的影响规律.采用广义逆方法对三层水平地层且中间层为极化层的模型进行了反演研究,结果表明该反演方法能够较好地确定地层电阻率的同时获得地层激电参数,应用于实际资料的反演时,反演结果与已知含油气地层的实际参数十分吻合.     

我国近年水库地震监测综述

在较完整地收集我国水库诱发地震震例的基础上,回顾了我国水库诱发地震监测的成长进步厍程。本文认为无线遥测组网和计算机实时处理方式是我国近年水库诱发地震监测的主流,数字化则是其发展方向。作者提出了按地震监测系统的主要特征。对水库地震监测台网分类划代方法,将我国已客在建的水库地震监测台网划分四代。本文较详细地介绍了近年建成投测的二滩,大桥、小浪底和李家峡等第三代水库遥测地震台网的基本情况。对正在设计建设     

Geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China

Based on the examination of the global researches on oil and gas provinces and large gas fields and the analysis of the features,attributes and distribution of large gas provinces and gas fields,this paper puts forward three indicators of determining large oil and gas provinces:spatial indicator,reservoir-forming indicator and resource indicator.It classifies the gas accumulated areas and large gas provinces in China and analyzes the controlling factors on the distribution of large gas provinces and large gas fields:the lateral distribution is mainly controlled by high-energy sedimentary facies and constructive diagenetic facies,palaeo-highs and their periclinal zones,deep faults,etc,and the vertical distribution is mainly controlled by unconformities,series of evaporates and deep low-velocity highly-conductive beds,etc.It also reveals the main geological characteristics of large gas provinces and large gas fields in China.Large gas fields in four-type basins have their own characteristics and onland large gas fields are dominantly developed in foreland basins and craton basins;there are three types of gas sources,of which,coal is the main source with high gas generating intensity and varying origins;reservoir rocks of the large gas fields(provinces)are of various types and dominated generally by low-middle permeability and porosity pore-type reservoirs;structural traps and litho-stratigraphic traps coexist in Chinese large gas fields and form dense high abundance and large-area low and middle-abundance large gas fields;most of the large gas fields have late hydrocarbon-generation peaks and reservoir formation,and experienced the process of multiple-stage charging and late finalization; large gas provinces(fields)have good sealing and preservation conditions,and evaporates seals are largely developed in large and extra-large gas fields.This paper intends to shed light on the exploration and development of large gas fields(provinces)through analyzing their geological characteristics.     

地震统计力学—几个非线性地震模型的相互关系及其物理含义

近年来地震统计力学研究的进展已经使我们有可能以一种简洁的方式将一些非线性地震模型物理地联系起来,并从地震学角度阐明这些模型的意义和限度。本文结合逾渗模型、热力学弹性回跳模型及弹簧滑块模型,系统地评述了这方面研究的进展。