An Empirical Bayes Analysis of Volcanic Eruptions

This paper describes a simple empirical Bayes approach to inference about the eruption rate of a volcano under a Poisson process model. Under this approach, the prior distribution of the eruption rate is estimated from the eruption records of a group of similar volcanoes. The approach is illustrated using the eruption records of six Central American volcanoes.     

从神话、传说与文字记录中探索中国活火山喷发的信息

火山喷发文字记录资料的考证可以给出历史上火山喷发的最为准确的时间限定，对喷发过程、灾害效应也都可给出极为详细、准确的措施。长白山天池火山喷发的满语资料是除了汉语、朝语之处另一种极为重要的资料来源，目前已从有关满语神话传说中得到了若干有重要意义的火山与火山学信息。本文列出了3类、14条天池火山喷发的神话与传说，从中可以得知数千年以来天池火山发生过多次猛烈的与温和的周期性的喷发。天池火山喷发与火山泥石流、喷发后洪水泛滥有密切关系，泛滥物波及到距离天池火山460km以过的嫩江流域及珲春一带。在中国近代史上还有若干次火山喷发记录，经考察较为确定的1951年昆仑山西部于田县卡尔达西火山喷发是一次地下岩浆上侵、地表汽爆炸与喷发的火山喷发事件。     

冰岛卡特拉火山未来喷发特征的判定

卡特拉火山近期活动频繁,其喷发概率、喷发规模、喷发方式及影响都备受瞩目.通过收集整理若干资料和分析计算,采用“将古论今”的研究方法,初步得到了关于卡特拉火山未来可能的行为方式及影响.根据卡特拉火山喷发的历史规律,估算2013年的喷发概率约为30%.卡特拉火山下次喷发规模可能为4级或5级,其喷发方式有3种:其一是岩浆冲破巨厚冰层发生爆破性喷发;其二是正常的岩浆喷发;其三是夭折的喷发.但根据现有资料分析,卡特拉火山最有可能是以见不到喷发的形式结束这次不稳定性活动.      

长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响

长白山火山是世界著名的活火山,历史时期有过多次喷发,有再次爆发的危险.长白山火山最大的一次爆发发生在公元1199-1200年,这次大爆发的火山灰最远到达距其1 000km远的日本北部.依据这次大爆发由火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑流和火山泥流造成的巨大火山灾害,预测了长白山火山未来爆发火山灾害的类型、强度和范围,并编制了长白山火山未来爆发火山喷发空中降落堆积物灾害预测图、火山碎屑流灾害预测图和火山泥流灾害预测图.该研究可预防和减轻火山灾害,指导核电站等大型工程选址.     

长白山天池火山地质学研究的若干进展与灾害分析

通过以减轻火山灾害为目的的天池火山锥体顶部地区地质填图工作，发现了天池火山锥体附近不同期次火山泥石流，部分火山泥石流显示的高温定位特征指示了其与千年大喷发的成因联系。这些火山泥石流构成了严重的火山泥石流灾害，天池火山锥体近顶部大型滑坡体的发现则指示了天池火山另一种重要的灾害类型。滑坡体堆积物结构上可分为3种类型。天池火山千年大喷发时不同成分与物性的岩浆混合作用十分发育，指示了天池火山喷发前不同岩浆批的混合与共喷发机理。本文还论述了天池火山近代历史记录喷发物的分布与鉴别特征。     

Reconstruction of an Evolving Magma Chamber beneath Usu Volcano since the 1663 Eruption

Usu volcano, located in northern Japan, has erupted seven timessince AD 1663. Before these seven eruptions, the volcano hada long repose period ( 5000 yr). The 1663 eruption was thefirstand by far the largest among the seven, producing nearlyaphyric rhyolitic pumice. Small mafic inclusions (‘micro-clots’J,consisting of glass, quenched crystals and abundant vesiclesoccur in the pumice. On the basis of petrological studies ofthe microclots, it is concluded that these are quenched meltsof a mafic magma injected into the rhyolite. The products ofthe 1769 eruption (and those of the following five eruptions)were dacites with abundant (10–15 vol %) microphenocrysts.According to crystal size distribution (CSD) analysis, the newmicrophenocrysts appear to have crystallized at a considerablyhigher cooling rate ( 300 times) than the phenocrysts in the1663 eruptive products. The contrasting petrologic featuresof the aphyric rhyolite and the following microphenocryst-richdacites can be explained by mixing and rapid cooling of a maficmagma injected during the 1663 eruption. We estimate the sizeof the magma chamber beneath Usu volcano just after the 1663eruption, using numerical calculations for a cooling magma chamber.If the magma chamber was sill-like, its thickness is estimatedto have been several hundreds of meters. KEY WORDS: Usu volcano; Japan; magma chamber evolution ^*Corresponding author. Present address: Geomechanics, Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, I-I-I Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan     

Seismological constraints on the 2018 Mt. Etna (Italy) flank eruption and implications for the flank dynamics of the volcano

3D earthquake locations, focal mechanisms and stress tensor distribution in a 16‐month interval covering the 2018 Mt. Etna flank eruption, enabled us to investigate the relationship between magma intrusion and structural response of the volcano and shed light on the dynamic processes affecting the instability of Mt. Etna. The magma intrusion likely caused tension in the flanks of the volcano, leading to significant ground deformation and redistribution of stress on the neighbouring faults at the edge of Mt. Etna's unstable sector, encouraging the ESE sliding of the eastern flank of the volcano. Accordingly, FPSs of the post‐eruptive events show strike slip faulting mechanisms, under a stress regime characterized by a maximum compressive σ₁, NE‐SW oriented. In this perspective, any flank eruption could temporarily enhance the sliding process of both the southern and eastern flanks of the volcano.     

Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

Relationship between regional changes of soil physical properties and volcanic stratigraphy on the southern slope of Batur volcano in the island of Bali,Indonesia

The present paper shows the relationship between the regional changes of soil physical properties and the volcanic stratigraphy on the southern slope of Batur volcano in the island of Bali, Indonesia, from the hydrogeological point of view based on the data obtained from field observations and laboratory experiments. The Bali soils data showed marked differences in regional distribution and their characteristics are closely correlated to the distribution of the volcanic stratigraphy derived from the Batur volcanic activities with the eruption about 23,700 years ago. On the basis of these data, the hydrogeological situation of the slope are presented schematically and groundwater flow regimes on the slope, such as recharge and discharge areas, are also classified according to the hydrogeological information. These classifications of groundwater flow regimes are useful to consider the occurrence of hydrological phenomena such as springs and paddy field distributions observed on the slope.     

Tephra Discovered in High Resolution Peat Sediment and Its Indication to Climatic Event

Floating tephra was deposited together with ice core,snow layer,abyssal sediment,lake sediments,and other geological records.It is of great significance to interpret the impact on the climate change of volcanic eruptions from these geological records.It is the first time that volcanic glass was discovered from the peat of Jinchuan(金川)Maar,Jilin(吉林)Province,China.And it is in situ sediments from a near-source explosive eruption according to particle size analysis and identification results.The tephra were neither from Tianchi(天池)volcano eruptions,Changbai(长白)Mountain,nor from Jinlongdingzi(金龙顶子)volcano about 1 600 aBP eruption,but maybe from an unknown eruption of Longgang(龙岗)volcano group according to their geochemistry and distribution.Geochemical characters of the tephra are similar to those of Jingiongdingzi,which are poor in s.Jica,deficient in alkali,Na20 content is more than K20 content,and are similar to distribution patterns of REE and incompatible elements,which helps to speculate that they originated from the same mantle magma with rare condemnation,and from basaltic explosive eruption of Longgang volcano group.The tephra,from peat with age proved that the eruption possibly happened in 15 BC-26 AD,is one of Longgang volcano group eruption that was not recorded and is earlier than that of Jinglongdingzi about 1 600 aBP eruption.And the sedimentary time of tephra is during the period of low temperature alteration.which may be the influence of eruption toward the local climate according to the correlativity of eruption to local temperature curve of peat cellulose oxygen isotope.     

五大连池老黑山火山弹和喷发柱动力学模拟

火山喷发是一个气体、液体和固体混合物的复杂的流体动力学过程。正确理解这个过程是研究火山喷发的关键因素。Eject和Plumeria软件可以很好地模拟现实火山喷发过程中火山弹和喷发柱的动力学过程。在详细调查五大连池老黑山地区火山弹、火山碎屑物和整理已有数据的基础上,运用Eject和Plumeria软件对老黑山火山的火山弹和喷发柱进行了动力学模拟。结果表明:老黑山火山喷发的火山弹喷射最大高度为530 m,喷射角度45°时喷射水平距离最远为1 000 m,喷发柱最大高度为4.7 km,喷发柱半径为2.3 km。通过对其喷发规模和火山灰构成比例的探讨,认为老黑山火山喷发属于镁铁质火山小型喷发,对环境的影响范围有限。     

STUDY OF ERUPTIONS AND EARTHQUAKES ORIGINATING FROM VOLCANOES (PART 1 OF 3)

Reports of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes originating from volcanoes indicate that seismic activity preceding the eruption is related not only to eruption magnitude and structure of the volcano, but also to viscosity of the lava at the time of eruption. This follows, since lava of higher viscosity meets greater resistance as it ascends from the magma chamber to the earth's surface and, consequently, greater stress will be produced within and beneath the volcano. The writer gives a condensed statistical breakdown of earthquakes and explosive eruptions of Asama Volcano. The Asama earthquakes treated in the report are mainly those of rather low magnitude (T = 1. 0 sec, V = 350) at the Asama Volcano Observatory, situated 4. 2 km east of the center of the summit crater. This investigation showed that most of the explosive eruptions were preceded by an increase in micro-earthquakes. In addition, an experimental formula for predicting volcanic eruptions, based on the statistical relation between frequency of earthquakes originating from Asama and its explosive eruptions. The forthcoming report (Part II) will discuss the same problem based on seismic observations by more sensitive instruments set nearer the summit crater. — A. Eustus     

Post-glacial time series of explosive eruptions and associated changes in the magma plumbing system of Lonquimay volcano,south central Chile

The Lonquimay volcanic complex (LVC) in the high Southern Andes comprises a stratocone and NE-trending flank-cone alignments. Numerous effusive and explosive volcanic eruptions characterize its post-glacial magmatic activity. Our tephrostratigraphic record, pre-dating the four historically documented eruptions, comprises 22 dated pyroclastic deposits that are used to constrain repose time distribution and eruption probability of the LVC magmatic system. Statistical examination of the stratigraphy-based eruption time series yields probabilities of 20–50 % for at least one explosive (VEI ≥ 3) eruption within the next 100 years as of 2011. The tephra deposits are subdivided into three petrographic groups: a felsic group (Lonquimay colored-pumice tephra, LCPT), an intermediate population (Lonquimay gray pumice tephra, LGPT), and a mafic member (Lonquimay dark scoria tephra, LDST). The distribution of these petrographic groups through the LVC tephrostratigraphy is linked to the observed changes in repose times. LDST-deposits as well as deposits compositionally zoned from LCPT to LGPT dominate the lower part of the stratigraphy for which recurrence times are short (RT_mean = 417 ± 169a). Deposits younger than 6,000 b2k (years before 2000 AD) have dominantly LCPT and minor LDST compositions, no longer contain LGPT, and repose times are significantly longer (RT_mean = 1,350 ± 310a). We interpret the change in eruption regime to result from a rearrangement in the magma storage and plumbing system. Thermobarometric calculations based on cpx–liquid equilibria and amphibole compositions reveal three distinct magma storage levels: the mafic LDST derive from mid crustal storage (P _mean = 476 ± 95 MPa, T _mean = 1,073 ± 24 °C), felsic LCPT mainly erupted from upper-crustal level (P _mean = 86 ± 49 MPa, T _mean = 936 ± 24 °C), whereas LGPT samples yield intermediate storage depths (P _mean = 239 ± 100 MPa, T _mean = 1,013 ± 17 °C). Magma contributions from this intermediate reservoir are restricted to >6,000 b2k when the Lonquimay plumbing system was in a regime of short repose times; disappearance of the intermediate reservoir coincides with the change to longer repose times between eruptions.     

Extracting the damaging effects of the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia

This research focuses on providing information related to the damaging effects of the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia. This information will be used to help emergency responders to assess losses more timely and efficiently, and to monitor the progress in emergency response and recovery. The objectives of this research are: (a) to generate a map of pyroclastic deposits based on activities pre- and post-volcano eruption of 2010 in the research area, (b) to investigate the impact of volcano eruption on the environment, and (c) to assess the impact of volcano eruption on landuse. ALOS PALSAR remote sensing data pre- and post-disaster were used in this research for mapping the volcano eruption. Topographic and geomorphological maps were analyzed for profiling and field orientation, which were used to investigate the impact of volcano eruption on the environment. SPOT 4 satellite images were used in this research for updating landuse information from the topographic map. The result of the landuse updated data was used for assessment of the volcano eruption’s impact on landuse with the GIS raster environment. The volcanic eruption that occurred in 2010 is estimated to have an impact of 133.31 ha for settlements, 92.32 ha for paddy fields, 235.60 ha for dry farming, 570.98 ha for plantations, 380.86 ha for bare land, and 0.12 ha for forest areas. An estimate of the number of buildings damaged due to the volcano eruption in 2010 was carried out by overlaying a map of pyroclastic deposits and the information point of the building sites from the topographic map. The total number of buildings damaged is estimated to be around 12,276 units.     

长白山天池火山——多成因中央式火山

长白山天池火山属新生代多成因中央式火山,也是我国最大的一座具潜在危险的活火山。火山主体由早期玄武岩盾、中期粗面岩锥和晚期伊格尼姆岩席组成。天池火山布里尼喷发柱高度最高达25 km,柱体最大宽度为半径12～13 km。天池破火山口塌陷过程可以分为四期,分别位于造锥喷发阶段和造伊格尼姆岩喷发阶段。本文对天池火山未来可能的火山灾害类型及范围也作了初步预测。     

中国东部全新世火山的镭-钍同位素年代学

活火山是指1万年来有过喷发历史的全新世火山。火山的高分辨年代学对火山灾害评估和火山分类具有重要意义。对于缺乏历史记载的全新世火山,直接对火山岩进行同位素定年很困难。本文利用具有高时间分辨率的镭-钍-铀非平衡确定中国东部年轻火山的年龄。根据镭-钍-铀同位素,海南岛的马鞍岭和雷虎岭是全新世火山(马鞍岭:4.3ka;雷虎岭:4.7ka);镜泊湖火山(4.9ka)也是全新世火山;龙岗火山存在晚更新世和全新世活动(7.0ka,15.0ka);大兴安岭阿尔山和诺敏河Ra/Th非平衡消失但~(230)Th/~(238)U非平衡显著,属于晚更新世喷发(阿尔山:63ka;诺敏河:71ka)。海南岛的马鞍岭火山、雷虎岭火山和东北地区的龙岗火山、镜泊湖火山,是4座活火山。至于东北地区的阿尔山和诺敏河火山是否是活火山,有待测试更多样品的Ra/Th同位素。五大连池老黑山和火烧山有历史喷发记录,这与它们都存在显著Ra/Th非平衡一致。五大连池老黑山和火烧山的岩浆滞留年龄分别小于4.2ka和3.2ka,岩浆上升速率 18～23m/y。     

Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera,Iceland

Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.     

El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

大兴安岭北部上护林盆地恩和大岭火山机构特征与时代

大兴安岭北部上护林盆地恩和大岭火山机构主要由白音高老组酸性熔岩、火山碎屑岩、次火山岩及火山-沉积岩组成。实测剖面显示,该火山机构由侵出相、溢流相、爆发相、次火山岩相及火山沉积相构成,不同岩性、岩相围绕火山口大致呈对称分布,产状外倾,为中心式喷发的穹状火山。溢流相的流纹岩和次火山岩相的正长斑岩锆石U-Pb测年结果分别为(115.3±2.3)Ma和(114.3±1.6)Ma,表明恩和大岭火山机构形成于早白垩世晚期。该火山机构为一次简单的火山喷发旋回一个喷发期次,大致的火山活动过程可分为四个阶段,第一阶段为早期岩浆溢流阶段,形成溢流相流纹岩夹少量流纹质角砾凝灰岩;第二阶段为晚期火山爆发阶段,产生大量的爆发相火山碎屑岩;第三阶段为岩浆侵入阶段,分别形成侵出相松脂岩、次火山岩相正长斑岩等;第四阶段为火山活动的间歇阶段,形成火山沉积相火山-沉积岩。     

Models of Ground Deformation and Eruption Magnitude from a Deep Source at Popocatepetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatepetl volcano in Central Mexico entered its latest stage of activity in late 1994. Due to the nature of its eruptive history and its location in a heavily populated area, it constitutes the highest risk in the cuntry. For this reason the volcano is currently under continuous surveillance; yet the interpretation of the information is carried out mostly on empirical basis and an integrating working model is lacking, at the present. In this paper, models of elastic deformation and mass erupted are developed to estimate the mass erupted according to the observed deformation patterns. We present results obtained from input based upon a gravimetric model of the volcano's internal structure and reasonable physical parameters of the volcanic system. These results are helpful in the planning of deformation and gravimetric observations aimed to forecast a major eruption.