A diffusion approach to the statistical analysis of Kamchatka Seismicity

A diffusion approach was used to develop a statistical model of seismicity and to analyze Kamchatka earthquakes in order to detect features in the changes that are typical of random walk processes. We proposed a hypothesis of relationships among events and used an energy criterion to decompose the earth-quake catalog into a set of sequences, with each being a Brownian process with definite spatial, temporal, and energy scales. We constructed statistical distributions for these sequences over the number of their terms and total energies, as well as distributions of the sequences over distance, time, and flight times between events. We discuss non-local properties and memory effects in the random walk under different conditions.     

Increment of Macroseismic Intensity at Seismic Stations of the Kamchatka Region Relative to the Petropavlovsk Seismic Station

The paper presents the method and results of calculating the increment of macroseismic intensity at seismic stations of Kamchatka. Calculation is based on measurement of the relative level of maximum accelerations of intense earth vibrations in the phase of S-waves of comparatively strong regional earthquakes and the root-mean-square deviation of acceleration in the phase of P-waves of a strong distant earthquake. In the latter case, records of an earthquake with a magnitude of 9.1, which occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, were used. The Petropavlovsk seismic station was used as the reference station. At the foundation of this station rests on rocky soil composed of siliceous shales. An estimate of the increment for the majority of digital stations is presented. Anomalously high intensity values were noted at a number of stations. The data obtained are used to assess the properties of soils in the investigated area. At several stations, the intensity of the horizontal component of soil vibrations above the intensity of the vertical component is much greater than the corresponding design value, which is probably due to the presence of resonant soil layers under these stations. The discrepancy in the incremental intensity estimates from records of intense oscillations from regional earthquakes and from records of a very strong remote earthquake obtained from sensors located in basements of heavy-frame concrete structures is revealed. To avoid distortion in recording ground vibrations, it is desirable to place seismic instruments far from such structures. The results obtained in the study can be used for seismic microzoning of construction sites in the investigated territory.     

Declustering of Seismicity Flow: Statistical Analysis

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The known methods for identifying the clusters of seismic events that are mainly formed by the aftershocks frequently include debatable initial assumptions...     

新疆天山地区中强地震前中小地震活动特征的定量研究

应用地震活动统计量βn定量分析了新疆天山地震带不同分区中小地震活动状态以及中强地震前中小地震活动速率的异常特征,并提取了中强震前βn值的中期预测指标.结果表明,当βn值满足各研究区的异常指标时,北天山和南天山东段1年左右可能发生5～6级地震;巴楚-阿图什和喀什-乌恰地区1年左右可能发生5.5～7.0级的地震.从发震时间来看,乌鲁木齐、乌苏-石河子和喀什-乌恰地区中强地震基本发生在βn值异常结束后;拜城-库车地区和巴楚-阿图什地区部分中强震发生在βn值处于异常状态过程中.各研究区中强震前1年左右中小地震活动具有区域特征:乌鲁木齐地区呈现增强;乌苏-石河子地区和喀什-鸟恰地区既有增强也有平静;巴楚-阿图什地区以平静为主;南天山东段和阿克苏-巴楚地区异常特征不明显.     

An Assessment of the Seismicity of the Bursa Region from a Temporary Seismic Network

A temporary earthquake station network of 11 seismological recorders was operated in the Bursa region, south of the Marmara Sea in the northwest of Turkey, which is located at the southern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). We located 384 earthquakes out of a total of 582 recorded events that span the study area between 28.50–30.00°E longitudes and 39.75–40.75°N latitudes. The depth of most events was found to be less than 29 km, and the magnitude interval ranges were between 0.3 ≤ M_L ≤ 5.4, with RMS less than or equal to 0.2. Seismic activities were concentrated southeast of Uludag Mountain (UM), in the Kestel-Igdir area and along the Gemlik Fault (GF). In the study, we computed 10 focal mechanisms from temporary and permanents networks. The predominant feature of the computed focal mechanisms is the relatively widespread near horizontal northwest-southeast (NW–SE) T-axis orientation. These fault planes have been used to obtain the orientation and shape factor (R, magnitude stress ratio) of the principal stress tensors (σ₁, σ₂, σ₃). The resulting stress tensors reveal σ₁ closer to the vertical (oriented NE–SW) and σ₂, σ₃ horizontal with R = 0.5. These results confirm that Bursa and its vicinity could be defined by an extensional regime showing a primarily normal to oblique-slip motion character. It differs from what might be expected from the stress tensor inversion for the NAFZ. Different fault patterns related to structural heterogeneity from the north to the south in the study area caused a change in the stress regime from strike-slip to normal faulting.     

Changes in Earthquake Source Properties across a Shallow Subduction Zone: Kamchatka Peninsula

—This paper studies the source properties of earthquakes originating within the shallow subduction zone near Kamchatka Peninsula. We use the regional catalog of 1962–1993 Kamchatkan earthquakes completed by the Institute of Volcanology, Russia. Our previous investigations (Zobin, 1990, 1996a) and this study allow us to show a gradual change in source properties of earthquakes from trench to coast.¶It was demonstrated that the swarm sequences change to the mainshock–aftershock sequences from trench to coast. The source area of aftershock sequences is generally smaller than the swarm areas for the same magnitude M _s of the mainshock or clue event of the swarm. Study of the M _s –K _s relation, where K _s is the energy class for Kamchatka earthquakes, reveals that the events radiate relatively higher frequencies from trench to coast.     

广西北海地区地震活动研究

分析了广西北海地区地震活动的特征,认为北海地区历史地震和现代地震活动水平较高。通过对1970-2004年北海地区b值和缺震时间进行扫描分析,认为b值高值异常和缺震低值异常可能是该区中强地震的前兆异常。     

闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像

闽粤两省强烈地震多发生在沿海地区,且福建南日岛至广东南澳一线的泉州－汕头地震带地震活动尤为突出。历史上东南沿海地震带曾发生过４次７级以上大地震,而其中３次都发生在泉－汕段海域,继华南地区本世纪著名的１９１８年广东南澳７．３级地震后,１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡南部又发生７．３级强震,这在经济发达,人口稠密的闽粤沿海地区引起了极大关注。本文通过历史强震活动资料,分析闽粤沿海与台湾海峡强震在时间进程,     

川滇地区地震活动统计单元的新划分

为了地震预测研究的需要,基于区域地震构造的新认识与新资料,在川滇地区重新划分出19个地震区(带).这些地震区(带)的实际意义是可作为地震活动性的地理统计单元.每一地震区(带)的划分除了与具体的、相对独立的活动构造单元相联系外,还考虑了历史及现今强地震的空间分布、现今弱震分布等因素.文中描述了各个地震区(带)的活动构造与历史强震活动背景,以及主要断裂的活动习性.基于这种新的地震区(带)划分方案,对其中两个区(带)在2001年青海昆仑山和1970年云南通海两次大地震前的地震活动进行统计分析,结果表明:依据这种与相对独立活动构造单元紧密关联的地震区(带)的划分方案可获得良好的地震活动前兆信息.     

Relationship between the Drift of Medium-Scale Irregularities and the Orientation of Transverse Anisotropy of Small-Scale Irregularities in the F Region of the Midlatitude Ionosphere

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The characteristics of irregular ionospheric structures are studied with two different methods in the course of two independent, long-term experiments. The parameters of...     

An Overview of Seismicity in China

This paper gives an overview of seismicity in China, including large-scale seismicity heterogeneity in space-time, aftershock activity, b-value, earthquake mechanism, and its possible mechanics.     

龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型构建

以龙门山地区为研究区, 利用1931年至2010年历史地震数据, 时限取80年, 时间间隔取10年, 构建地震活动性广义极值模型, 估计龙门山地区震级上限和强震重现水平。 结果表明龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型服从具有有限上界的Weibull分布, 震级上限为8.3, 未来20年、 50年、 100年龙门山地区的强震重现水平分别为7.9、 8.1、 8.1。 起始年由1930年至1933年逐年平移, 时间间隔不变, 震级上限及强震重现水平的计算结果相差不到0.2级, 表明本文构建的龙门山地区广义极值模型具有一定程度的稳定性, 可为地震区划以及地震危险性分析研究提供参考。     

Tectonics and Seismicity of the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon Region

The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon region is located in the frontal zone of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where neo-tectonics and seismicity are intensive and closely related to each other. In the region, two sets of fault structures have developed, striking NNE-NE and NWW-NW, respectively. Investigation shows that they differ markedly in terms of scope, property, active times and intensity. The NWW-NW trending faults are large in size, and most are thrust and thrust strike-slip faults, formed in earlier times. The NEE-NE-strike faults are relatively small in size individually, with concentrated distribution, constituting the NNE-trending shear extensional fault zone, which is relatively younger with evident late Quaternary activities. Strong earthquakes occur mainly in the areas or zones of intensive differential movement of the Himalayas, e.g. along the deep and large fault zones around the crustal blocks. Most earthquakes of M≥7.0 are closely related to tectonics, where large-scale Holocene active faults are distributed with complicated fault geometry, or the faults of multiple directions intersect. Among them, earthquakes of M≥7.5 have occurred on the NW and NE-trending faults with a greater strike-slip component in the fault tectonic zones.     

晋陕豫交界区地震活动性分析

分析了晋陕豫交界区临汾、渭南地区的地震活动性,认为自1800年以来,运城地区地震活动明显增强,且有向韩城扩散的趋势     

Automated Estimation of Seismic Shaking Intensity from Instrumental Data in Quasi-Real-time Mode and Its Use in the Operation of the of Seismic Early Warning Service in the Kamchatka Region

Early warning systems are becoming increasingly important in the modern world. These systems combine several components: predictive systems (For example, tsunami warning systems), earthquake early warning systems, emergency message services, and systems of seismic damage monitoring. Information about shaking intensity becomes especially important in the case of a strong earthquake occurrence. These data are necessary for planning emergency rescue operations, but they are difficult to collect in a natural disasters situation because of possible communication problems. Application of data on instrumental seismic intensity may make it possible to solve this problem. Early warning systems predicting seismic intensity distributions just after the occurrence of an earthquake have already been developed in many seismically active regions of the world. Such a system also needs to be implemented in Kamchatka, where the strongest earthquakes can produce extremely high values of strong motion acceleration. As a result of the development of a system for seismological observation in Kamchatka, a unified specialized system for collection, transmission, archiving, and processing of seismic information was created. Seismological observations in Kamchatka were significantly improved with the update of the tsunami warning service in 2006–2011. As a result, a network of strong motion stations is currently operating in Kamchatka and can serve as a basis for creating a quasi-real-time seismic early warning system under the auspices the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS). It uses data from strong motion stations to estimate the instrumental seismic intensity in quasi-real-time mode and visualizes the results. During the operational period while the service is being intensively used in the framework of the Seismic Early Warning Reports Tsunami Warning Service in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin branches of the GS RAS for real-time warning of interested parties about the shaking intensities at observation points, the technology implemented in this service has proved highly informative. In total, 75 messages on instrumental intensity in various places of Kamchatka krai and the northern Kuril Islands (Paramushir Islands) have been sent since the service was commissioned at the end of 2014. The currently operating version of the service has proved its informativeness and applicability for special departments of the Emergency Situations Ministry. In addition, real-time warning has improved coordination between the departments of KB GS RAS, and the results of this system are being used in a number of basic research projects. Further development of the service is related to the creation of denser instrumental networks to record strong ground motions and the transition to automatic decision-making and message sending.     

喜马拉雅地区与天山地区地壳强地震的孕震因素探讨

利用哈佛大学GCMT数据中心和前人积累的历史地震资料(1962~2016年M W>4.0地震)以及Crust2.0地壳结构统计分析了喜马拉雅地区、天山地区的地壳区域构造与地震活动间的相关性。此外,利用GFZ地学研究中心提供的静态卫星重力模型GGM03S/EGM2008和地形模型Topo计算了2个地区的各类重力异常场,同时还模拟了不同地壳弹性参数下的重力异常场,结果表明喜马拉雅地区重力异常场在水平、垂直方向的梯度特征远大于天山地区的异常特征,且喜马拉雅地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(6~15km)小于天山地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(20~30km)。最后,利用喜马拉雅地区与天山地区的GPS震间三维形变场约束了断层运动模型,结果显示两者主前缘断裂的断层闭锁深度及应力积累状态存在较大的差异。因此认为,造成青藏高原及邻区的边界地壳区域地震活动性差异的动力学因素,与地壳有效弹性板厚度、孕震断层参数及区域应力积累状态等密切相关。     

新疆南部构造区带与地震活动状态研究

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationally by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.     

Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.     

上海地区断裂活动性与地震关系初析

以浅层地震勘探结果为主，研究了上海地区的断裂活动性。结果表明，上海地区NW向断裂的活动性要较其它方向强，最新活动时间一般为中更新世，有的可延续至晚更新世，但整体仍属弱活动性断裂。上海地区的地震活动性与所揭示的断裂活动性也相吻合。通过分析现有资料，认为上海地区不具备发生≥6级地震的构造条件，但有发生5级左右地震的构造环境。