Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The analysis of the local earthquake catalog revealed fine features in the behavior of seasonal components of induced seismicity in the...     

On the Dynamics of the Seasonal Components of Induced Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

The spatial and time dynamics are analyzed for the seasonal components of induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region of Western India. The peculiarities of the variations in these components are compared to the changes in the local tectonic regime inferred from the focal mechanism data of the earthquakes. Based on this, the hypotheses about the probable nature of the dynamics in the seasonal components of seismicity are suggested. It is noted that the variations in the seasonal seismic activity after the impoundment of the Koyna reservoir in the north are caused by the spatial migration of the induced seismicity and activation of the normal faults in the south. It is hypothesized that the process of fracture migration from the north to the south at this stage advanced the diffusion of the fluid from the Koyna reservoir, and as the water front reached the southern zone of normal faulting, this caused reactivation of the seasonal seismicity. An explanation is suggested for the stronger response of the seasonal activity in the region of Warna reservoir compared to the Koyna area: in contrast to Koyna, filling the Warna reservoir was geographically close to the area of activated seismicity. It is shown that the localization and sizes of the areas of the instantaneous and delayed components in the seasonal activity of the induced seismicity are determined by the localization and sizes of the areas of high stresses created by the increase in the pore pressure in highly permeable fault zones.     

Hydromechanics of the Koyna–Warna Region, India

Continuous reservoir-induced seismicity has been observed in the Koyna–Warna region in western India following the beginning of impoundment of Koyna and Warna Reservoirs in 1961 and 1985, respectively. This seismicity includes 19 events with M ≥ 5.0 which occurred in 7 episodes (I–VII) between 1967 and 2005 at non-repeating hypocentral locations. In this study, we examined the first six episodes. The seismicity occurs by diffusion of pore pressures from the reservoirs to hypocentral locations along a saturated, critically stressed network of NE trending faults and NW trending fractures. We used the daily lake levels in the two reservoirs, from impoundment to 2000, to calculate the time history of the diffused pore pressures and their daily rate of change at the hypocentral locations. The results of our analysis indicate that Episodes I and IV are primarily associated with the initial filling of the two reservoirs. The diffused pore pressures are generated by the large (20–45 m) annual fluctuations of lake levels. We interpret that critical excess pore pressures >~300 kPa and >~600 kPa were needed to induce Episodes I–III and Episodes IV–VI, respectively, suggesting the presence of stronger faults in the region. The exceedance of the previous water level maxima (stress memory) was found to be the most important, although not determining factor in inducing the episodes. The annual rise of 40 m or more, rapid filling rates and elevated dp/dt values over a filling cycle, contributed to the rapid increase in pore pressure.     

Reservoir induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,India: Overview of the recent results and hypotheses

The state of the art in the geological and geophysical study of the region of Koyna and Warna water reservoirs is reviewed. The probable geodynamical factors of induced seismicity are discussed. The detailed geophysical surveys, satellite geodetic data, and time history of the seismicity in the region reveal a complicated pattern of the structure and recent geodynamics of the region. The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults whose strength has dropped and continues decreasing due to the reservoir impoundment and operation processes. The evolution of the seismicity which started immediately after the rapid filling of the Koyna reservoir in the region of the dam, then rapidly expanded southwards and eventually became concentrated in the region of the subsequently constructed Warna reservoir shows that seismic events can be initiated by a number of factors whose contributions may vary with time. The key ones among them include reservoir loading and its seasonal variations; water saturation of the faults which guide the propagation of the front of fracture, increased permeability, and, probably, mineral transformations (hydrolysis) under the water level fluctuations in the reservoirs; and displacement of the front of the high pore pressure down to the main source zone of the earthquakes at a depth of 6–8 km. Based on the analysis presented in the paper, we outline the directions of the future research aimed at studying the nature and dynamics of induced seismicity in the region of large water reservoirs.     

The behavior of seasonal variations in induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Based on the earthquake catalog data for the Koyna–Warna region of induced seismicity in western India, the seasonal variations in seismic activity associated with annual fluctuations in the reservoir water level are analyzed over the time span of the entire history of seismological observations in this region. The regularities in the time changes in the structure of seasonal variations are revealed. The seasonal seismic activity is minimal in May–June when the reservoir level is lowest. During the remaining part of the year, the activity has three peaks: the fall peak in September, winter peak in November–December, and spring peak in February–March. The first mentioned peak, which falls in the phase of the water level reaching its maximal seasonal value is considered as the immediate response of the fluid saturated medium to the additional loading under the weight of reservoir water. The two subsequent maxima concur with the decline phase in the reservoir level and are interpreted as the delayed response associated with the changes in the properties of the medium due to water diffusion. It is shown that the intensities of the immediate and delayed responses to the seasonal water level variations both vary with time as does their ratio. The probable factors affecting the variations in the intensity of the seasonal components of the reservoir-induced seismicity are discussed.     

Triggered and tectonic driven earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Two strong M?>?5.0 earthquakes within a span of six months occurred in a triggered seismicity environment in the Koyna–Warna region in western India in 2000. The region is experiencing continued seismicity since the last five decades indicating that this region is close to critical stresses and minor perturbations in the stresses due to reservoir loading and unloading can trigger earthquakes. In the present study we applied the technique developed for identification of prognostic anomalies for tectonic earthquakes to the Koyna–Warna catalogue prior to these two earthquakes with an aim to study the process of source preparation for triggered earthquakes. In case of tectonic earthquakes, unstable conditions in a source zone develop gradually leading to a metastable zone which shows variations in certain seismicity parameters known as prognostic anomalies. Our results indicate that the variations in seismicity parameters before the two strong earthquakes in the Koyna region have a pattern of prognostic anomalies typical of tectonic earthquakes. We conclude that initiation of failure in a metastable zone can be caused both, by external impacts, reservoir loading and unloading in our case, and internal processes of avalanche-like failure development.     

Temporal migration of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna (India) region by pore-fluid diffusion

Continuous occurrences of several thousands of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna region since the initial impoundment (1962) of the Koyna reservoir has attracted the attention of seismologists all over the world to know the exact earthquake physical processes involved. The area has been a site for reservoir-triggered earthquakes for the last four and half decades. Major bursts of seismic activity occurred during 1967, 1973, 1980, 1993, and 2000 and recently in 2005 with magnitudes exceeding 5.0 in the region. A notable southward migration of seismicity has been observed following the impoundment of another reservoir, the nearby Warna reservoir. All the mainshocks suggest that the significant southward migration might be due to pore-pressure diffusion. We have divided the entire period from 1967 to 2007 in several sequences starting by a mainshock of M >5. Each sequence is critically analyzed in terms of triggering by the diffusion process through the fractured medium. The pore-fluid diffusion tensor D for each sequence is estimated based on Darcy’s law. The direction of temporal migration of seismicity of each sequence except 1980 is correlated well with the eigenvectors of diffusion. The fluid flow eigenvectors are constrained with one of the strike directions of the focal mechanisms. The frequency magnitude distribution shows the b value to vary from 0.5 to 1.2. Spatial distribution of the b value further indicates that the area along the major faults is more prone to future earthquake.     

Visibility Graph Analysis of the 2003–2012 Earthquake Sequence in the Kachchh Region of Western India

A visibility graph (VG) is a rather novel statistical method in earthquake sequence analysis; it maps a time series into networks or graphs, converting dynamical properties of the time series into topological properties of networks. By using the VG approach, we defined the parameter window mean interval connectivity time <T_c>, that informs about the mean linkage time between earthquakes. We analysed the time variation of <T_c> in the aftershock-depleted catalogue of Kachchh Gujarat (Western India) seismicity from 2003 to 2012, and we found that <T_c>: i) changes through time, indicating that the topological properties of the earthquake network are not stationary; and, ii) appeared to significantly decrease before the largest shock (M5.7) that occurred on March 7, 2006 near the Gedi fault, an active fault in the Kachchh region.     

Spatiotemporal Variations in Gutenberg–Richter b-Value Depending on the Depth and Lateral Position in the Earth’s Crust of the Garm Region,Tajikistan

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Spatiotemporal variations in the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) b-value and in the minimum magnitude of a predicted earthquake (MPE) are studied in detail...     

Features of Seismicity in the Northeastern China Region and Their Relation to the Subduction of the Japan Sea Plate

INTRODUCTIONThewestPacificplatedivestowardsthewest,formingthesubductionzoneintheJapanSea ,hencecalledtheJapanSeasubductionzone .ItsfrontendgoesdeepintoWangqingandMulinginNortheastChina .Thefocusdepthisabout 540～ 590km .Withthedipangleofabout 2 9°andthwidthof 12 87km ,theJapanseasubductionzoneistheonewiththesmallestdipangleandthelargestwidthintheworld .ThedeepearthquakestherecorrespondtotheoccurrenceofshallowonesandhaveeffectstoacertainextentontheshallowstrongearthquakeinnortheastAs…     

Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio in the Study of Seismicity in the Region of Iran

The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.     

Enhanced reservoir-induced earthquakes in Koyna region, India, during 1993–95

Reservoir induced earthquakes began to occur in the vicinity of Shivajisagar Lake formed by Koyna Dam in Maharashtra state, western India, soon after its filling started in 1962. Induced earthquakes have continued to occur for the past 34 years in the vicinity of this reservoir, and so far a total of 10 earthquakes of M 5.0, over 100 of M 4 and about 100,000 of M 0.0 have occurred. Every year, following the rainy season, the water level in the reservoir rises and induced earthquakes occur. Seismic activity during 1967–68 was most intense when globally, the largest reservoir induced earthquake occurred on 10 December, 1967. Other years of intense seismic activity are 1973 and 1980. During 1986 another reservoir, Warna, some 20 km south of Koyna, began to be filled. The recent burst of seismic activity in Koyna-Warna region began in August, 1993, and was monitored with a close network of digital and analog seismographs. During August, 1993–December, 1995, 1,272 shocks of magnitude 2 were located, including two earthquakes of M 5.0 and M 5.4 on 8 December, 1993 and 1 February, 1994, respectively. Two parallel epicentral trends in NNE-SSW direction, one passing through Koyna and the other through Warna reservoir are delineated. The 1993 increase in seismicity has followed a loading of 44.15 m in Warna reservoir during 11 June 11, 1993 through August 4, 1993, with a maximum rate of filling being 16 m/week. The larger shocks have been found to be preceded by a precursory nucleation process.     

Temporal variation of b value associated with M ��4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna�CWarna region, Western India

It is generally found that the b values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are higher than the regional b values in the frequency magnitude relation of earthquakes. In the present study, temporal and spatial variation of b value is investigated using a catalog of 3,000 earthquakes from August 2005 through December 2010 for the Koyna?CWarna region in Western India, which is a classical site of RTS globally. It is an isolated (30?×?20?km²) zone of seismicity where earthquakes of up to M ??5 are found to occur during phases of loading and unloading of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs situated 25?km apart. For the Warna region, it is found that low b values of 0.6?C0.9 are associated with earthquakes of M ??4 during the loading phase. The percentage correlation of the occurrence of an M????4 earthquake with a low b value outside the 1?? or 2?? level is as high as 78?%. A drastic drop in the b value of about 50?% being reported for an RTS site may be an important precursory parameter for short-term earthquake forecast in the future.     

Effect of Long-Term Variations in Wind Regime over Caspian Sea Region on the Evolution of Its Level in 1948–2017

Water Resources - The data of atmospheric reanalysis NCEP/NCAR over 1948–2017 (R-1) and NCEP/DOE over 1979–2017 (R-2) have been used to show that variations of the Caspian Sea level are...     

A Review of the Seismicity in 2000

1. A SURVEY OF THE GLOBAL SEISMICITYAccording to the rec()rding of the seismic fletwork o[ China, 20 large earthquakes with M,     

Investigation of Fine Velocity Structure of the Basement Layer of the Shallow Crust in Western Yunnan Region

In this paper the authors have discussed the results of investigation of fine velocity structure in the basement layer of the Simao-Zhongdian DSS profile in western Yunnan region.The depth of upper Pz interface of the basement layer is about 0-3.5 km,and the depth of the lower P1 interface is 11.0-17.0 km.The velocity of the basement layer on the southern side of the Jinhe-Erhai deep fault is 5.70-6.30 km/s,and has increased to 6.30-6.50 km/s on the northern side.Their transitional zone is situated near Jianchuan County.Along the profile some localities,where the faults cut across the lateral variation of Pz interface velocity,are quite obvious in addition to the variation in depth.The velocity isopleths are relatively sparse in the southern region of JYQ S.P.(shot - point),near the DC S.P.,and in the south ZT S.P.The magma has apparently risen up along the deep faults to the upper crust in these localities,forming a large intrusive rock zone in the basement layer.In Jinggu region the basaltic magma has     

Distribution of Seismicity Before the Larger Earthquakes in Italy in the Time Interval 1994–2004

The Region–Time–Length (RTL) algorithm has been applied to different instrumental catalogues to detect seismic quiescence before medium-to-large earthquakes in Italy in the last two decades. RTL performances are sensitive to the choice of spatial and temporal parameters. The method for automatic parameters selection developed by Chen and Wu has been applied to twelve Italian earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5. The limits of the method in constructing maps of seismic quiescence before the earthquake are demonstrated, and a simple improvement is proposed. Then a new technique, namely RTL_surv, is proposed for routine surveys of the Italian seismicity. RTL_surv has been applied to all the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4 in the Italian area in the time interval 1994–2004; four different sub-areas have been identified, with different characteristics in the level of recorded seismicity. One subarea—Tyrrhenian Sea—was characterized by a too low level of recorded seismicity for the application of the method. In the other three subareas a seismic quiescence was detected before at least the 66% of the earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4 and all the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5.     

S-Wave Velocities of the Lithosphere–Asthenosphere System in the Caribbean Region

An overview of the S-wave velocity (V _s) structural model of the Caribbean with a resolution of 2°?×?2° is presented. New tomographic maps of Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion at periods ranging from 10 to 40?s were obtained as a result of the frequency time analysis of seismic signals of more than 400 ray-paths in the region. For each cell of 2°?×?2°, group velocity dispersion curves were determined and extended to 150?s by adding data from a larger scale tomographic study (Vdovin et al., Geophys. J. Int 136:324–340, 1999). Using, as independent a priori information, the available geological and geophysical data of the region, each dispersion curve has been inverted by the “hedgehog” non-linear procedure (Valyus, Determining seismic profiles from a set of observations (in Russian), Vychislitielnaya Seismologiya 4, 3–14. English translation: Computational Seismology (V.I. Keylis-Borok, ed.) 4:114–118, 1968), in order to compute a set of V _s versus depth models up to 300?km of depth. Because of the non-uniqueness of the solutions for each cell, a local smoothness optimization has been applied to the whole region in order to choose a three-dimensional model of V _s, satisfying this way the Occam's razor concept. Several known and some new main features of the Caribbean lithosphere and asthenosphere are shown on these models such as: the west directed subduction zone of the eastern Caribbean region with a clear mantle wedge between the Caribbean lithosphere and the subducted slab; the complex and asymmetric behavior of the crustal and lithospheric thickness in the Cayman ridge; the predominant oceanic crust in the region; the presence of continental type crust in Central America, and the South and North America plates; as well as the fact that the bottom of the upper asthenosphere gets shallower going from west to east.