Estimation of the Probability of Exceedance of Contaminant Concentrations

Several alternative probability distributions for estimating the probability of exceedance of contaminant concentrations are examined for their appropriateness for developing inputs to risk assessments. The rationale is provided for using the log Pearson Type III distribution, a three-parameter model, for estimation of the exceedance probabilities.     

On the estimation of accuracy for global models of gravitational field of the earth

The methods and techniques for estimating the accuracy of global models of the Earth’s gravity field in the form of spherical harmonic expansion of the geopotential are analyzed. Various methods for obtaining the a priori and a posteriori estimates for the accuracy are considered and classified. The application of different approaches is illustrated by numerical examples for nine models, including those recently developed using the modern methods of space geodesy. The basic requirements for the database and software for estimating the accuracy are formulated.     

The forecasting of streamflow using the method of characteristic modes

The method of characteristic modes proposed by Farmer for nonstationary processes is tested for the forecasting of streamflow. The calculation of the auto-correlation matrix is modified for processes which generate a single record and an algorithm is proposed for the optimum choice of the number of past data and mode vectors. Results for 12 gauging stations in various parts of the world are presented.     

Bioassessment of water quality and defining of critical levels of multicontamination for aquatic life

The existing approaches to and methods for bioassessment of water quality are critically analyzed. The significance of the methodological approach under the concept of ecosystem “health” as the most integral numerical method for assessing pollution effects. Comparative analysis is given to the significance of criteria based on the state of individuals, populations, and communities. The results of practical testing of the methods developed for biological assessment of water quality for some water bodies are presented. Critical levels are established based on the construction of dose-effect dependences. The basic principles for limiting surface water pollution are formulated.     

Asymptotic treatment of the stability of a rotating layer of fluid with rigid boundaries

Abstract

Chandrasekhar (1961) has summarized the stability results of Bénard convection in a rotating fluid for the cases where the boundary surfaces are both rigid and free, and for both exchange of stabilities and overstability. His analysis provides very accurate results for a limited range of Taylor number J. Bisshopp and Niiler (1965) presented an asymptotic analysis of the rigid boundary problem for exchange of stabilities which is valid for very large Taylor number. The present paper makes use of modern rotating fluid theory to develop an approximate scheme for evaluating the Rayleigh number and other parameters and variables. Known asymptotic results for the free boundary problem at large J are used and an expansion in powers of E^1/6 (the Ekman number, E = 2J ^?½) yields a sequence of equations and appropriate boundary conditions for the rigid boundary problem. After the algorithm for the calculation is developed, results are given for the problem to second order in the expansion parameter for the case of exchange of stabilities and to first order in the expansion parameters for the overstable case. Ekman boundary layers are important in the development as one might expect. However, an additional, diffusive boundary layer of thickness E^? is necessary to provide the details of the temperature field. This boundary layer is the thermal response in the vertical direction to the horizontal spacing of the cells which is also order E^?. The horizontal spacing of the cells is essentially a series of contiguous, Stewartson (1957) layers of thickness E^?.     

Development of conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models and estimation of their parameters with the aid of GIS

Abstract

Conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models are developed for a limited consideration of spatial heterogeneity of hydrological characteristics within a river basin. This heterogeneity can be described by area distribution functions of hydrological characteristics which can be estimated in a most effective way by a Geographical Information System (GIS). It is shown how the application of a GIS can support the development and the calibration of a conceptual hydrological model. GIS information is used to establish the criteria for sub-division of the river basin and for estimation of model structures (especially for further horizontal divisions of each basin into more homogeneous parts). That information is also used for estimation of basin characteristics and their differences between sub-basins as a support for parameter calibration by optimization. The methodology presented can be used for the development of a model structure on an objective basis and for model calibration which considers the physical explanation of model parameters. The proposed method was successfully applied to a river basin within the Mosel basin (Germany).     

高层隔震建筑设计中隔震支座受拉问题分析

高层建筑由于高宽比相对较大,倾覆效应明显,当采用隔震技术时,有可能使隔震支座出现拉应力,而通常使用的叠层橡胶隔震支座抗拉能力不强。因此,隔震支座受拉问题成为隔震技术在高层建筑中推广应用的主要障碍之一。本文提出了避免隔震支座受拉的上部结构布置原则及隔震层优化设计方法,并对目前隔震支座拉应力计算方法提出了改进建议。本文的研究工作可为工程设计提供借鉴,为隔震设计相关规范的修订提供依据。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615–2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.     

Mathematical principles of predicting the probabilities of large earthquakes

A multicomponent random process used as a model for space-time earthquake prediction enables the construction of a consistent estimator for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes with known values of the predictor characterizing seismic prehistory. This paper defines tools for the assessment of the prediction efficiency, including separate determinations of the efficiency for time prediction and location prediction: a generalized correlation coefficient and information gain density. A technique for testing a predictor is proposed to determine whether the hypothesis of no prediction can be rejected.     

Regionalization of hydrologic parameters of Nash mode

hydrologic models are important tools to estimate runoff from a catchment. Identification of broad based parameters of a hydrologic model for development of direct runoff hydrograph is a key issue for the modelers. Optimization and regionalization of hydrologic parameters for application of Nash’s model is investigated in this paper. Six catchments dominated by hill torrent flows were selected for this purpose. Fifty seven rainfall events were used for regionalization of parameters and about 55 events were used for validation of the results. The hydrologic parameters of the Nash Model, number of linear cascades (N) and storage coefficient (k) were determined using optimization based upon Downhill Simplex method. The data was collected by field measurements and from Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Pakistan. The physical parameters of the catchments were derived from the satellite images of the watersheds with the help of ERDAS software. The performance of the model was assessed by the model efficiency. It is concluded that the conceptual Nash model can simulate direct runoff hydrograph using regional hydrologic parameters with model efficiency of 67%.     

Dynamic response of rigid foundations of arbitrary shape

An approximate numerical procedure for calculation of the harmonic force-displacement relationships for a rigid foundation of arbitrary shape placed on an elastic half-space is presented. This procedure is used to evaluate the vertical, rocking and horizontal compliance functions for rigid rectangular foundations and the vertical compliance for a rigid square foundation with an internal hole. Several comparisons between the results obtained by the proposed approach and other methods are also presented.     

Estimation of long-term stability of detectors within the global network of neutron monitors

Results of the continuous ground-based monitoring of the cosmic ray flux by neutron monitors are used as an experimental material for many works devoted to studying cosmic ray variations. Long-term stability of detectors is the problem of an extreme importance. Two independent methods for estimating long-term stability of neutron monitor operation have been proposed. The quantitative estimates have been obtained for 90 detectors that operated and have been operating during more than one solar cycle. The conditions responsible for long-term stability of a detector and the causes of instability have been considered.     

水对岩石变形过程中电阻率变化的影响

实验研究表明: 在变形破坏过程中, 干燥砂岩电阻率略有下降, 变化幅度小; 少量含水的砂岩电阻率下降幅度大; 含水量多的砂岩电阻率有下降-上升-下降的变化, 变化幅度又小;而完全水饱和的砂岩除初期电阻率有所下降外, 变化更小。更精确的观察表明: 干燥砂岩, 破裂前电阻率有升高的迹象; 少量含水的样品, 破裂前电阻率单调下降; 含水量较多和水饱和的样品, 破裂前电阻率有先升高后降低的变化。这些有可能给出中短期前兆特征的提示。对电阻率变化的机理给出了解释。     

Climatology of the occurrences of thundery weather over Gauhati airport

Summary The probability of occurrences of thundery weather over Gauhati airport has been investigated. During the pre-monsoon thunderstorm period, the months of April and May have higher probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather and the month of March has, on average, medium probabilities. The probability for thundery weather, during the months of March and April, is the highest during >18 to 24 h and then decreases successively during 00 to 06 h, >12 to 18 h and >06 to 12 h in order. The month of May, being the transition season for sharp decrease of nor' westers, is an exception. The months June to September, during monsoon season, have high probabilities for a day being thundery; but the month of October, during which monsoon virtually withdraws, shows decreasing trend in probabilities for successive date-groups. During the whole of the monsoon months, the time-groups >12 to 18 h, >18 to 24 h, 00 to 06 h and >06 to 12 h rank first, second, third and fourth in the order of probability for a day being thundery.In April and May, the probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather of MLL, LL and VLL groups are higher, but in the month of March, the probabilities for the occurrences of first two groups are higher and the third group has medium probability. During the months June to September, in the monsoon season, the probability for thundery weather of MLL and LL groups are higher but that of VLL group has the medium probability; during the month of October — the last month for monsoon season — MLL and LL have higher and medium probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather.     

Assessment of Critical Loads of Acid Fallout for Surface Waters

A method for determining the critical loads of acid fallout for surface waters is described. Adaptation of the method for estimating the degree of water acidification in the Kola North is demonstrated in the process of large-scale investigations carried out in this region. The limiting value of the acid-neutralizing capacity of waters needed for preventing the aquatic ecosystems from degradation is substantiated. The loads of acid fallout in 17% of 460 examined water systems are found to exceed the critical limits and create the conditions for further development of adverse processes in water systems.     

中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0）,东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥43/4）活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.     

Influence of a method of evaluation of the curvature of flexible vegetation elements on vertical distributions of flow velocities

Methods of computing the deflections of flexible vegetation elements under the dynamic pressure of water were presented in the paper. Two methods, based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, were discussed, one designed for small deflections and the other, generalized one, also for larger deflections. The choice of the method for computations of deflections was discussed from the perspective of the computation of flow velocities above flexible vegetation. Computational results were compared with laboratory experiments and it was found that the simplified, computationally less expensive method may be used in many practical situations without deterioration of the results.     

Effect of epicentral direction on seismic response of asymmetric buildings

The paper deals with the influence of the epicentral direction on the displacement and stress response of multistorey asymmetric buildings to earthquake horizontal ground motion. A method is given for computing for each plane frame of the complex structure a particular direction of the bidirectional stationary random input for which the horizontal floor displacement of the given frame is maximized. It is shown that this direction can be considered conservative for the corresponding non-stationary process.     

Calculation of uncertainties of U-Pb isotope data

Equations are derived for the estimation of errors and error correlations for various types of U-Pb isotope data, taking into account ion-beam instabilities, run-to-run variability in mass-discrimination, uncertainties in Pb and U concentrations, and uncertainties in initial-Pb and blank-Pb amount and isotopic composition. Equations are also given for the calculation of concordia intercept errors.     

工程结构等延性地震抗力谱研究

研究结构的非弹性反应谱对改进现有的结构抗震设计、发展基于性态的抗震设计以及了解复杂地面运动特性与结构动力特性之间的关系具有重要的意义。利用大量的单自由度在强震记录作用下的弹塑性动力时程分析,对等延性地震抗力谱这一重要的非弹性反应谱进行了较为详尽的研究,给出了四类场地条件(基岩、硬土、一般土和软土)下的平均等延性地震抗力谱,总结了对工程结构的抗震设计和研究具有实际意义的规律和特征,并分析了场地条件、结构的延性系数以及周期等对等延性地震抗力谱的影响,提出了新的拟合公式,其成果可供抗震研究和设计直接应用。