Automated calibration applied to watershed‐scale flow simulations

Complexity in simulating the hydrological response in large watersheds over long times has prompted a significant need for procedures for automatic calibration. Such a procedure is implemented in the basin‐scale hydrological model (BSHM), a physically based distributed parameter watershed model. BSHM simulates the most important basin‐scale hydrological processes, such as overland flow, groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction in watersheds. Here, the emphasis is on estimating the groundwater parameters with water levels in wells and groundwater baseflows selected as the calibration targets. The best set of parameters is selected from within plausible ranges of parameters by adjusting the values of hydraulic conductivity, storativity, groundwater recharge and stream bed permeability. The baseflow is determined from stream flow hydrographs by using an empirical scheme validated using a chemical approach to hydrograph separation. Field studies determined that the specific conductance for components of the composite hydrograph were sufficiently unique to make the chemical approach feasible. The method was applied to the Big Darby Creek Watershed, Ohio. The parameter set selected for the groundwater system provides a good fit with the estimated baseflow and observed water well data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of the numbers of observations and calibration parameters on equifinality,model performance,and output and parameter uncertainty

The level of model complexity that can be effectively supported by available information has long been a subject of many studies in hydrologic modelling. In particular, distributed parameter models tend to be regarded as overparameterized because of numerous parameters used to describe spatially heterogeneous hydrologic processes. However, it is not clear how parameters and observations influence the degree of overparameterization, equifinality of parameter values, and uncertainty. This study investigated the impact of the numbers of observations and parameters on calibration quality including equifinality among calibrated parameter values, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. In the experiments, the number of observations was increased by expanding the calibration period or by including measurements made at inner points of a watershed. Similarly, additional calibration parameters were included in the order of their sensitivity. Then, unique sets of parameters were calibrated with the same objective function, optimization algorithm, and stopping criteria but different numbers of observations. The calibration quality was quantified with statistics calculated based on the ‘behavioural’ parameter sets, identified using 1% and 5% cut‐off thresholds in a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework. The study demonstrated that equifinality, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty were responsive to the numbers of observations and calibration parameters; however, the relationship between the numbers, equifinality, and uncertainty was not always conclusive. Model performance improved with increased numbers of calibration parameters and observations, and substantial equifinality did neither necessarily mean bad model performance nor large uncertainty in the model outputs and parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to model shallow water‐table depth variations: the case of the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment,France

The aim of this work is threefold: (1) to identify the main characteristics of water‐table variations from observations in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment, a small catchment located in western France; (2) to confront these characteristics with the assumptions of the Topmodel concepts; and (3) to analyse how relaxation of the assumptions could improve the simulation of distributed water‐table depth. A network of piezometers was installed in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment and the water‐table depth was recorded every 15 min in each piezometer from 1997 to 2000. From these observations, the Kervidy‐Naizin groundwater appears to be characteristic of shallow groundwaters of catchments underlain by crystalline bedrock, in view of the strong relation between water distribution and topography in the bottom land of the hillslopes. However, from midslope to summit, the water table can attain a depth of many metres, it does not parallel the topographic surface and it remains very responsive to rainfall. In particular, hydraulic gradients vary with time and are not equivalent to the soil surface slope. These characteristics call into question some assumptions that are used to model shallow lateral subsurface flow in saturated conditions. We investigate the performance of three models (Topmodel, a kinematic model and a diffusive model) in simulating the hourly distributed water‐table depths along one of the hillslope transects, as well as the hourly stream discharge. For each model, two sets of parameters are identified following a Monte Carlo procedure applied to a simulation period of 2649 h. The performance of each model with each of the two parameter sets is evaluated over a test period of 2158 h. All three models, and hence their underlying assumptions, appear to reproduce adequately the stream discharge variations and water‐table depths in bottom lands at the foot of the hillslope. To simulate the groundwater depth distribution over the whole hillslope, the steady‐state assumption (Topmodel) is quite constraining and leads to unacceptable water‐table depths in midslope and summit areas. Once this assumption is relaxed (kinematic model), the water‐table simulation is improved. A subsequent relaxation of the hydraulic gradient (diffusive model) further improves water‐table simulations in the summit area, while still yielding realistic water‐table depths in the bottom land. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating temporal variability in catchment response using a monthly rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

Temporal variability can result from shifts in climate, or from changes in the runoff response due to land- or water-use changes, and represents a potential source of uncertainty in calibrating hydrological models. Parameter values were determined using Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods for a monthly rainfall–runoff model (Pitman model) for different sub-periods on four catchments, with different types and degrees of temporal variability, in Australia and Africa. For some catchments, parameters were not dependent upon the sub-period used and fell within expected ranges given the relatively high degree of model equifinality. In other catchments, dependencies can be identified that are associated with signals contained within the sub-periods. While the Pitman model is relatively robust in the face of temporal variability, it is concluded that better simulations will always be obtained from calibration data that include signals representing the total variability in climate, land-use change and catchment responses.     

Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions

ABSTRACT

Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate.     

Hydrological modelling for assessing spatio-temporal groundwater recharge variations in the water-stressed Amathole Water Supply System,Eastern Cape,South Africa

To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments.     

How to improve the representation of hydrological processes in SWAT for a lowland catchment – temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity and model performance

Model diagnostic analyses help to improve the understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in hydrological models. A detailed temporal analysis detects periods of poor model performance and model components with potential for model improvements, which cannot be found by analysing the whole discharge time series. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of hydrological processes by investigating the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity and of model performance for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model applied to the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. The temporal analysis shows that the parameter sensitivity varies temporally with high sensitivity for three groundwater parameters (groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient) and one evaporation parameter (soil evaporation compensation factor). Whereas the soil evaporation compensation factor dominates in baseflow and resaturation periods, groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient are dominant in the peak and recession phases. The temporal analysis of model performance identifies three clusters with different model performances, which can be related to different phases of the hydrograph. The lowest performance, when comparing six performance measures, is detected for the baseflow cluster. A spatially distributed analysis for six hydrological stations within the Treene catchment shows similar results for all stations. The linkage of periods with poor model performance to the dominant model components in these phases and with the related hydrological processes shows that the groundwater module has the highest potential for improvement. This temporal diagnostic analysis enhances the understanding of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and of the dominant hydrological processes in the lowland catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: a revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework

Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminants transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) by combing evolutionary multi‐objective optimization (EMO) and BF separation techniques. The application of this scheme demonstrated pronounced trade‐off of SWAT's performance on SF and BF simulations. The simulated major water fluxes and storages variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater) using the multiple parameters from EMO span wide ranges. Uncertainty analysis was conducted by Bayesian model averaging of the Pareto optimal solutions. The 90% confidence interval (CI) estimated using all streamflows substantially overestimate the uncertainty of low flows on BF days while underestimating the uncertainty of high flows on SF days. Despite using statistical criteria calculated based on streamflow for model selection, it is important to conduct diagnostic analysis of the agreement of SWAT behaviour and actual watershed dynamics. The new calibration technique can serve as a useful tool to explore the trade‐off between SF and BF simulations and provide candidates for further diagnostic assessment and model identification. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of multi-annual climate variability on the hydrodynamic evolution (1833 to present) in a shallow aquifer system in northern Belgium

Abstract

Using a groundwater flow model and long historical meteorological time series data, the evolution of the groundwater flow regime in a multi-layered groundwater flow basin in northern Belgium during the last one and a half centuries (since 1833) is reconstructed. Model output parameters such as piezometric levels, depth to water table, seepage fluxes in the valleys and calculated baseflow to the river system are presented and inter-annual and decadal variations are evaluated against seasonal fluctuations. The main time-varying boundary condition in the model is the aquifer recharge which was estimated using the method of Thornthwaite and Mather based on precipitation and temperature data. The model does not take into account changes in boundary conditions due to changes in land use (deforestation, drainage of cultivated land) or groundwater exploitation. Variations in model output parameters are therefore only due to climatological forcing. Only the natural non-exploited state of the aquifer is considered. Although few historical piezometric measurements are available to verify model output, the results give an indication of the natural hydrodynamic variations on a time scale of decades.

Citation Van Camp, M., Coetsiers, M., Martens, K. & Walraevens, K. (2010) Effects of multi-annual climate variability on the hydrodynamic evolution (1833 to present) in a shallow aquifer system in northern Belgium. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 763–779.     

Choosing an arbitrary calibration period for hydrologic models: How much does it influence water balance simulations?

The selection of calibration and validation time periods in hydrologic modelling is often done arbitrarily. Nonstationarity can lead to an optimal parameter set for one period which may not accurately simulate another. However, there is still much to be learned about the responses of hydrologic models to nonstationary conditions. We investigated how the selection of calibration and validation periods can influence water balance simulations. We calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrologic models with observed streamflow for three United States watersheds (St. Joseph River of Indiana/Michigan, Escambia River of Florida/Alabama, and Cottonwood Creek of California), using time period splits for calibration/validation. We found that the choice of calibration period (with different patterns of observed streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature) influenced the parameter sets, leading to dissimilar simulations of water balance components. In the Cottonwood Creek watershed, simulations of 50-year mean January streamflow varied by 32%, because of lower winter precipitation and air temperature in earlier calibration periods on calibrated parameters, which impaired the ability for models calibrated to earlier periods to simulate later periods. Peaks of actual evapotranspiration for this watershed also shifted from April to May due to different parameter values depending on the calibration period's winter air temperatures. In the St. Joseph and Escambia River watersheds, adjustments of the runoff curve number parameter could vary by 10.7% and 20.8%, respectively, while 50-year mean monthly surface runoff simulations could vary by 23%–37% and 169%–209%, depending on the observed streamflow and precipitation of the chosen calibration period. It is imperative that calibration and validation time periods are chosen selectively instead of arbitrarily, for instance using change point detection methods, and that the calibration periods are appropriate for the goals of the study, considering possible broad effects of nonstationary time series on water balance simulations. It is also crucial that the hydrologic modelling community improves existing calibration and validation practices to better include nonstationary processes.     

A comparison of methods to estimate groundwater recharge from bare soil based on data observed by a large-scale lysimeter

Effectively estimating groundwater recharge is critical to manage water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions as impacted by intensive human activities and climate changes. Rare insights have been gained into groundwater recharge since direct observation is hard to carry out. Although several methods are currently available to estimate groundwater recharge, the estimated results may cover noticeable bias. The behaviours of different methods based on different conceptual frameworks and exhibiting different levels of complexity should be examined to estimate actual groundwater recharge. This study aims to assess the performance of four common methods to estimate groundwater recharge. For this end, large-scale lysimeters equipped with soil water content sensors and water table sensors were set up at a research site established in Guanzhong Basin of China. The data achieved by 1-year observation were employed to compare four estimation methods. As revealed from the results, the following findings are drawn. (a) Groundwater level fluctuation (GLF) method is simple, whereas its accuracy is determined by specific yield, and adopting a water balance method to estimate specific yield can considerably enhance the accuracy of GLF. (b) The calibrated numerical model can obtain the optimal result compared with the other methods, whereas long-term observation data are required for parameter calibration. (c) In the water balance method, the maximum entropy production (MEP) model and a practical method (estimating evaporation between two rainfall events) were used to calculate evaporation. As indicated by the results, water balance method combined with MEP is capable of obtaining more reliable results of groundwater recharge compared with the practical method. (d) With an analytical model based on linearized Richards' equation, accurate results can be achieved. What is more, the analytical model only needs the measurement of soil moisture near the surface. The limitation of this method is that it is difficult to determine the maximal water flux. The mentioned findings are of critical implications to the management and sustainable development of groundwater.     

The impact of wildfire on baseflow recession rates in California

The effect of wildfire on peak streamflow and annual water yield has been investigated empirically in numerous studies. The effect of wildfire on baseflow recession rates, in contrast, is not well documented. The objective of this paper was to quantify the effect of wildfire on baseflow recession rates in California for both individual watersheds and for all the study watersheds collectively. Two additional variables, antecedent groundwater storage and potential evapotranspiration, were also investigated for their effect on baseflow recession rates and postfire baseflow recession rate response. Differences between prefire and postfire baseflow recession rates were modeled statistically in 8 watersheds using a mixed statistical model that accounted for fixed and random effects. For the all‐watershed model, antecedent groundwater storage, potential evapotranspiration, and wildfire were each found to be significant controls on baseflow recession rates. Wildfire decreased baseflow recession rates 52.5% (37.6% to 66.0%), implying that postfire reductions in above‐ground vegetation (e.g., decreased interception, decreased evapotranspiration) were a stronger control on baseflow recession rate change than hydrophobicity. At an individual watershed scale, baseflow recession rate response to wildfire was found to be sensitive to intraannual differences in antecedent groundwater storage in 2 watersheds, with the effect of wildfire on baseflow recession rates being greater with lower levels of antecedent groundwater storage. Examination of burn severity for a subset of the study watersheds pointed to riparian zone burn severity as a potential primary control on postfire recession rate change. This study demonstrates that wildfire may have a substantial impact on fluxes to and from groundwater storages, altering the rate at which baseflow recedes.     

Using internal catchment information to reduce the uncertainty of discharge and baseflow predictions

The semi-distributed hydrological model TOPMODEL was tested with data from the Can Vila research basin (Vallcebre) in order to verify its adequacy for simulating runoff and the relative contributions from saturated overland flow and groundwater flow. After a test of the overall performance of the model, only data from a wet period were selected for this work. The test was performed using the GLUE method. The model was conditioned on continuous discharge and water table records. Furthermore, point measurements of recession flow simultaneous with water table depth and the extent of saturated areas were used to condition the distributions of the more relevant parameters, using new or updated evaluation measures. A wide range of parameter sets provided acceptable results for flow simulation when the model was conditioned on flow data alone, and the uncertainty of prediction of the contribution from groundwater was extremely large. However, conditioning on water table records and the distribution of parameters obtained from point observations strongly reduced the uncertainty of predictions for both stream flow and groundwater contribution.     

Identifying and linking source areas of flow and P transport in dairy‐grazed headwater catchments,North Island,New Zealand

We examined the applicability of the critical‐source area (CSA) concept to the dairy‐grazed 192‐ha Upper Toenepi catchment and its 8·7‐ha Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, New Zealand. We evaluated if phosphorus (P) transport from land into stream is dominated by saturation‐excess (SE) and infiltration‐excess (IE) runoff during stormflow and by sub‐surface (<1·5 m depth) flows during baseflow. We measured stream flow and shallow groundwater levels, collected monthly stream, tile drain (TDA) and groundwater samples, and flow‐proportional stream samples from the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and determined their dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, during storm events, IE contributions were significant. Contributions from SE appeared significant in the Upper Toenepi catchment. However, in both catchments, sub‐surface contributions dominated stormflow and baseflow periods. Absence of water table at the surface and the water table gradient towards the stream indicated that P transport during events was not limited to surface runoff. The dynamics of the groundwater table and the occurrence of SE areas were influenced by proximity to the stream and hillslope positions. Baseflow accounted for 42% of the annual flow in the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and contributed 37 and 52% to the DRP and TP loads, respectively. The P transport during baseflow appeared equally important as P losses from CSAs during stormflow. The close resemblance in P levels between groundwater and stream samples during baseflow demonstrates the importance of shallow groundwater for stream flow. In the Upper Toenepi catchment, contributions from effluent ponds (EFFs) dominated P loads. Management strategies should focus on controlling P release from EFFs, and on decreasing Olsen P concentrations in soil to minimize leaching of P via sub‐surface flow to streams. Research is needed to quantify the role of sub‐surface flow as well as to expand management strategies to minimize P transfers during stormflow and baseflow conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-Constrained Catchment Scale Optimization of Groundwater Abstraction Using Linear Programming

Due to increasing water demands globally, freshwater ecosystems are under constant pressure. Groundwater resources, as the main source of accessible freshwater, are crucially important for irrigation worldwide. Over-abstraction of groundwater leads to declines in groundwater levels; consequently, the groundwater inflow to streams decreases. The reduction in baseflow and alteration of the streamflow regime can potentially have an adverse effect on groundwater-dependent ecosystems. A spatially distributed, coupled groundwater–surface water model can simulate the impacts of groundwater abstraction on aquatic ecosystems. A constrained optimization algorithm and a simulation model in combination can provide an objective tool for the water practitioner to evaluate the interplay between economic benefits of groundwater abstractions and requirements to environmental flow. In this study, a holistic catchment-scale groundwater abstraction optimization framework has been developed that allows for a spatially explicit optimization of groundwater abstraction, while fulfilling a predefined maximum allowed reduction of streamflow (baseflow [Q95] or median flow [Q50]) as constraint criteria for 1484 stream locations across the catchment. A balanced K-Means clustering method was implemented to reduce the computational burden of the optimization. The model parameters and observation uncertainties calculated based on Bayesian linear theory allow for a risk assessment on the optimized groundwater abstraction values. The results from different optimization scenarios indicated that using the linear programming optimization algorithm in conjunction with integrated models provides valuable information for guiding the water practitioners in designing an effective groundwater abstraction plan with the consideration of environmental flow criteria important for the ecological status of the entire system.     

Hydrometric and natural tracer (oxygen-18, silica,tritium and sulphur hexafluoride) evidence for a dominant groundwater contribution to Pukemanga Stream,New Zealand

Pukemanga is a small (3 ha) steep headwater catchment at the Whatawhata Research Station near Hamilton, New Zealand. The water balance (1996–2002) shows average annual rainfall of 1640 mm producing annual runoff of 440 mm (baseflow 326 mm, stormflow 114 mm) and ‘deep seepage’ loss of 450 mm (i.e. 450 mm of water not appearing in the stream). Oxygen-18 (¹⁸O) concentrations were measured at weekly intervals for 8–15 months at six sites, ranging from Pukemanga Stream baseflow through wetland seepage to ephemeral streams and surface runoff. The first two showed no significant ¹⁸O variations. Inferred mean residence times within the catchment ranged from at least 4 years (for the stream baseflow and seepage) to a few weeks (for the ephemeral flows and surface runoff). Silica concentrations could also be used to distinguish deep flowpath water from near-surface flowpath water. Tritium concentrations gave an estimated mean residence time of 9 years for Pukemanga Stream baseflow. Sulphur hexafluoride tended to give younger ages, while the chlorofluorocarbon ages were older, but are not considered as reliable for dating streamflow in this time range. These results show that deep pathways predominate with over 74% of runoff deriving from deep hillslope flowpaths via the wetland, and 87% of total drainage (baseflow and deep seepage) travelling via deep hillslope flowpaths. Our conception of the deep drainage process is that there is a large volume of slowly moving water in the system (above and below the water table), which reaches the wetland and stream via an unconfined groundwater system. Subsurface water equivalents are estimated to be 2·9 m for drainage at the weir and 4·1 m for drainage bypassing the weir, giving a total of 7 m depth over the catchment. The unsaturated zone plays an important role in storing water for long periods (about 4 years), while linking the surface with the groundwater water table to contribute to the fast streamflow response to rainfall. A schematic model of the various pathways with indicative residence times is given. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.