Seasonal and interannual variations of upper tropospheric water vapor band brightness temperature over the global monsoon regions

The upper-troposphere water vapor (UTWV) band brightness temperature (BT) dataset derived from the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) channel 12 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini-stration (NOAA) polar satellites from 1979 to 1995 is used to analyze the seasonal and interannual variations for the global monsoon regions. Results show that (i) there are three major regions where the UTWV band BT varies significantly with season, i.e., South Asia, the western coastal South-North America tropical region and the low-lati-tude African region; (ii) UTWV band BT clearly reveals the water vapor temporal / spatial features as well as the at-mospheric circulation structure over the low-latitude during the monsoon onset; and (iii) there is a remarkable rela-tionship between the interannua] variation of the UTWV band BT over the monsoon regions and the sea surface tem-perature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific.     

东亚冬季风异常与全球大气环流变化 I. 强弱冬季风影响的对比研究

利用ECMWF资料挑选出一个强冬季风年（1986年）和一个弱冬季风年（1980年）,通过个例分析对各种气象要素场及中高纬度大尺度环流在强弱冬季风年的差异特征进行比较。分析结果表明：东亚冬季风是全球大气环流的一个重要组成部分,冬季风异常关联着全球环流的异常;这种异常不仅在中高纬度环流中表现出来,而且在热带地区大尺度流场上也尤为显著。强弱冬季风所对应的长波槽脊分布、低纬对流特征、三维流场结构都是截然不同的。冬季风异常不但造成了同期环流形势的差异,而且对后期环流和天气状况也有影响。     

夏季热带经向环流双圈结构的观测研究

本文利用1980—1983年7月ECMWF资料，分析了夏季热带地区经向环流的结构及它们的区域和年际差异。指出夏季热带经向环流具有双圈结构。在季风区，对流层下部为季风环流，在非季风区，为Hadley环流；对流层上部存在一独立的环流圈，季风区的中心偏北半球，非季风区的中心偏南半球；热带经向环流的双圈结构在一般年份均存在，但在异常年份（1983年），强大的垂直运动将对流层上、下部两个相对独立的环流圈紧密连接起来，成为整层统一的大范围季风环流。     

The global monsoon definition using the difference of local minimum and maximum pentad precipitation rates associated with cross-equatorial flow reversal

Since most previous attempts to establish monsoon indices have been limited to specific regions, they have lacked the applicability to universally describe the global monsoon domain. In this paper, we first review the history of global monsoon study and then identify the climatology of global precipitation associated with major systems of the atmospheric general circulation. A new index, based on the annual and semiannual harmonic precipitation rate difference between two local calendar maximal and minimal precipitation pentads, is used to identify the global monsoon domain focusing on where experienced and what caused the climatic dry-wet alteration. The global monsoon domain is defined by the regions where two pentad-mean precipitation difference exceeds 4 mm ?day^?1, which is also influenced by the low-level prevailing wind reversal associated with the cross-equatorial flow. This definition not only confirmed previous results of the classical global monsoon domain from the tropical Africa to Asia-Australia and non-classical monsoon region in the tropical America but also solved an issue of missing local summer monsoon spots.     

Identifying Global Monsoon Troughs and Global Atmospheric Centers of Action on a Pentad Scale

Using two datasets of global pentad grid precipitation and global 850 hPa geopotential height during 1979-2007, this study identified global monsoon troughs and global atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) on a pentad scale. The global monsoon troughs consist of planetary-scale monsoon troughs and peninsula-scale monsoon troughs. Forced by seasonal variations in solar radiation, the inter-tropical convergence zones (ITCZs) represent the planetary-scale monsoon troughs, which are active and shift over the tropical North Pacific, the tropical North Atlantic, and the tropical South Indian oceans. The peninsula-scale monsoon troughs are originated from regional land-sea topography and varied with contrasts in seasonal land-sea surface temperatures and precipitation. During the boreal summer, five peninsula-scale troughs and one planetary-scale trough are distributed in the Asia-Northwest Pacific (NWP) region. In total, 22 troughs, nine monsoon troughs, and 19 ACAs in the lower troposphere were identified. Relevant ACAs may be useful in constructing regional monsoon and circulation indices.     

The Indian summer monsoon drought of 2002 and its linkage with tropical convective activity over northwest Pacific

The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in 2002, which largely resulted from a major rainfall deficiency in the month of July. While moderate El Nino conditions prevailed during this period, the atmospheric convective activity was anomalously enhanced over northwest and north-central Pacific in the 10–20°N latitude belt; and heavy rainfall occurred over this region in association with a series of northward moving tropical cyclones. Similar out-of-phase rainfall variations over the Indian region and the northwest (NW) Pacific have been observed during other instances of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dynamical linkage corresponding to this out-of-phase rainfall variability is explored in this study by conducting a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results from the model simulations lend credence to the role of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in forcing the out-of-phase precipitation variability over the NW Pacific and the Indian monsoon region. It is seen that the ENSO induced circulation response reveals an anomalous pattern comprising of alternating highs and lows which extend meridionally from the equatorial region into the sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions of west-central Pacific. This meridional pattern is associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over NW Pacific, which is found to favor enhanced tropical cyclonic activity and intensified convection over the region. In turn, the intensified convection over NW Pacific induces subsidence and rainfall deficiency over the Indian landmass through anomalous east-west circulation in the 10–20°N latitude belt. Based on the present findings, it is suggested that the convective activity over NW Pacific is an important component in mediating the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection dynamics.     

热带环流异常对1998年长江流域特大洪涝的影响

分析了造成1998年长江流域特大洪涝灾害的大尺度热带环流成因。指出1998年处在热带环流强度偏弱的气候阶段，西太平洋暖池地区对流活动偏弱，南海热带季风持续异常偏弱，副热带夏季风偏强度是造成长江持续强降水的主要原因；西太平洋热带对流层高低层环流系统的异常分布，为1998年长江特大洪涝提供了有利的环流背景，还探讨了热带环流异常影响换国夏季降水的可能途径，它们的关系在1998年夏季降水预测中得到应用。     

夏季南海低空越赤道气流变化与亚澳季风区降水异常的联系

基于1979—2014年ERA-Interim逐月风场和水汽通量资料及GPCP逐月降水率资料,采用相关分析及合成分析等方法研究了夏季南海低空越赤道气流的变化特征及其与亚澳季风区降水异常的联系。结果表明:1)夏季南海低空越赤道气流强度的年际变化特征明显,具有3~4 a的周期。2)夏季南海低空越赤道气流强度变化与热带东印度洋和海洋性大陆区域降水异常具有显著的负相关关系、与热带西太平洋降水异常存在明显的正相关关系、与我国中部地区降水异常存在较好的负相关关系。3)当夏季南海低空越赤道气流强度偏强时,850 hPa上自阿拉伯海向东一直延伸到热带西太平洋为西风异常,这种环流形势有利于热带西太平洋出现水汽辐合,使得该区域降水出现明显偏多,同时热带东印度洋低层为东风异常,受其影响,热带东印度洋和海洋性大陆区域出现水汽辐散,使得该区域降水偏少;此外,在我国东南沿海为一个气旋式风场异常,不利于来自热带海洋的水汽输送到达我国中部地区,使得该地区降水偏少;反之亦然。4)当夏季南海低空越赤道气流偏强时,东亚地区局地Hadley环流表现为异常偏弱,低空偏南越赤道气流异常在20°N附近与来自北半球的冷空气交汇上升,赤道附近及30~40°N地区出现异常下沉运动,使得热带海洋性大陆区域和我国中部地区降水减少;反之亦然。     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数异常与五类主要大尺度环流型的关系

利用Yoshida and Ishikawa(2013)提出的一套客观分类方法对1979-2013年夏季(5-10月)共796个热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成前的大尺度环流背景场进行了分型,主要包括了季风切变线型(monsoon Shear Line,SL)、季风涡旋区(monsoon Gyre...     

Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics

This paper discusses the concept of global monsoon. We demonstrate that the primary climatological features of the tropical precipitation and low-level circulation can be represented by a three-parameter metrics: the annual mean and two major modes of annual variation, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. Together, the two major modes of annual cycle account for 84% of the annual variance and they represent the global monsoon. The global monsoon precipitation domain can be delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation index (MPI), which is the local annual range of precipitation (MJJAS minus NDJFM in the Northern Hemisphere and NDJFM minus MJJAS in the Southern Hemisphere) normalized by the annual mean precipitation. The monsoon domain can be defined by annual range exceeding 300 mm and the MPI exceeding 50%.The three-parameter precipitation climatology metrics and global monsoon domain proposed in the present paper provides a valuable objective tool for gauging the climate models’ performance on simulation and prediction of the mean climate and annual cycle. The metrics are used to evaluate the precipitation climatology in three global reanalysis products (ERA40, NCEP2, and JRA25) in terms of their pattern correlation coefficients and root mean square errors with reference to observations. The ensemble mean of the three analysis datasets is considerably superior to any of the individual reanalysis data in representing annual mean, annual cycle, and the global monsoon domain. A major common deficiency is found over the Southeast Asia-Philippine Sea and southeast North America-Caribbean Sea where the east–west land–ocean thermal contrast and meridional hemispheric thermal contrast coexist. It is speculated that the weakness is caused by models’ unrealistic representation of Subtropical High and under-represented tropical storm activity, as well as by neglecting atmosphere–ocean interaction in the reanalysis. It is recommended that ensemble mean of reanalysis datasets be used for improving global precipitation climatology and water cycle budget. This paper also explains why the latitudinal asymmetry in the tropical circulation decreases with altitude.     

Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment

In this study the potential impact of the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations on different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated, focusing on the role of the mechanisms leading to these changes. Both changes in the mean aspects of the Indian summer monsoon and changes in its interannual variability are considered. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment being performed with the ECHAM4 AGCM at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The experiment consists of two 30-year simulations, one representing the present-day climate (period: 1970–1999) and one representing the future climate (period: 2060–2089). The time-slice experiment predicts an intensification of the mean rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of the monsoon circulation in the upper troposphere and only little change in the lower troposphere. The intensification of the monsoon rainfall in the Indian region is related to an intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into this region. The weakening of the monsoon flow is caused by a pronounced warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the associated alterations of the Walker circulation. A future increase of the temperature difference between the Indian Ocean and central India as well as a future reduction of the Eurasian snow cover in spring would, by themselves, lead to a strengthening of the monsoon flow in the future. These two mechanisms compensate for the weakening of the low-level monsoon flow induced by the warming of the tropical Pacific. The time-slice experiment also predicts a future increase of the interannual variability of both the rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon and of the large-scale flow. A major part of this increase is accounted for by enhanced interannual variability of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.     

亚洲热带气候态夏季风涌传播特征及其对中国降水的影响

基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低...     

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2��C with respect to pre-industrial times

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5°C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming dioes not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (uppper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at lower (upper) level in the Indian region. The comparison with the changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 4.5°C reveals that both the intensification of the monsoon precipitation and the weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation (particularly in the lower troposphere) are relatively strong (with respect to the magnitude of the projected global warming by the end of the twentieth century for the two scenarios) in the scenario with a global warming of 2°C. The relatively strong intensification of the monsoon rainfall is related to rather strong increases in evaporation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while a rather weak amplification of the meridional temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and the land areas to the north contributes to the relatively strong reduction of the large-scale monsoon flow.     

夏季太平洋低纬地区季风环流与信风环流一种可能的连接机制

北半球夏季太平洋低纬地区的平均经向环流,西部(150°E以西)为季风环流;中部和东部(170°W以东)为信风区的Hadley环流;150°E—170°W之间为季风环流与信风环流的连接区或过渡区。连接季风环流与信风环流的水平环流系统,在高层为太平洋中部热带对流层高层槽(TUTT),低层为强大的太平洋副热带高压。太平洋中部高空槽区就是季风环流与信风环流的连接区或过渡区。本文分析了高空槽的流场结构,并根据各层水平环流和各经度带的垂直环流给出了太平洋低纬地区的三维气流分布示意图。      

Diagnostic study on seasonality and interannual variability of wind field

l.Intr0ductionThoughseasonalvariationoftheatmosphericgeneralcirculationismainlycausedbythatofthesolarradiation,itsdistributionsareinhomogeneousovertheglobe,forinstance,itismoresignificantinmonsoonregionthaninanyotherregions.Inatraditionalsense,mon-soonsummarisesalldrasticseasonalvariationsinthetropicsandsubtropics(e.g.,IndiaandEastAsia).Besidestheclassicmonsoonregions,thereexistsomeotherregionsovertheglobe,wheretheseasonalvariationisclearorevendrastic.Inordertodescribequantitativelysea-sonal…     

The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible?

A multi-model set of atmospheric simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) or SSTs plus Greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing agents for the period of 1950–1999 is studied to identify and understand which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) variability are forced and reproducible. The analysis focuses on the summertime monsoon circulations, comparing model results against the observations. The priority of different components of the A–AM circulations in terms of reproducibility is evaluated. Among the subsystems of the wide A–AM, the South Asian monsoon and the Australian monsoon circulations are better reproduced than the others, indicating they are forced and well modeled. The primary driving mechanism comes from the tropical Pacific. The western North Pacific monsoon circulation is also forced and well modeled except with a slightly lower reproducibility due to its delayed response to the eastern tropical Pacific forcing. The simultaneous driving comes from the western Pacific surrounding the maritime continent region. The Indian monsoon circulation has a moderate reproducibility, partly due to its weakened connection to June–July–August SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent decades. Among the A–AM subsystems, the East Asian summer monsoon has the lowest reproducibility and is poorly modeled. This is mainly due to the failure of specifying historical SST in capturing the zonal land-sea thermal contrast change across the East Asia. The prescribed tropical Indian Ocean SST changes partly reproduce the meridional wind change over East Asia in several models. For all the A–AM subsystem circulation indices, generally the MME is always the best except for the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon circulation indices.     

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: influence of the South Asian monsoon

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is dominated by persistent northerly winds (Etesians) whose ventilating effect counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by large scale subsidence. The ERA40 dataset is used to study the vertical distribution of these circulation features, which both appear to be reconciled manifestations of the South Asian monsoon influence. As predicted by past idealized modeling studies, in late spring a westward expanding upper level warm structure and subsidence areas are associated with Rossby waves excited by the monsoon convection. Steep sloping isentropes that develop over the EMME facilitate further subsidence on the western and northern periphery of the warm structure, which is exposed to the midlatitude westerlies. The northerly flow and descent over the eastern Mediterranean have maxima in July that are strikingly synchronous to the monsoon convection over northern India, where the weaker easterly jet favors a stronger Rossby wave response and consequent impact on the EMME circulation. The pronounced EMME topography modifies the monsoon induced structure, firstly, by inducing orographically locked summer anticyclones. These enhance the mid and low level northwesterly flow at their eastern flanks, leading to distinct subsidence maxima over the eastern Mediterranean and Iran. Secondly, topography amplifies the subsidence and the northerly flow over the Aegean, Red Sea, the Iraq—Gulf region and to the east of the Caspian Sea.     

A DIAGNOSTIC STUDY OF THE TELECONNECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM POOL OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ASIAN MONSOON DURING EL NINO AND NON-EL NINO YEARS

Based on the monthly mean OLR, geopotential height and wind data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data sets for 1982-1996, the atmospheric teleconnection associated with the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific and Asian monsoon region during E1 Nino and non-El Niño years are studied diagnostically in this paper. It is found that, the teleconnection pattern caused by the activity of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) emanates from the Asian monsoon region to the tropical eastern Pacific via the Aleutians in summer of the El Niño years. In the non-El Niño years, however, the ASM-related teleconnection pattern stretches northward and westward from the Asian monsoon region, exerting its influences mainly on the circulation over middle and high latitude rather than that over the tropical eastern Pacific. Evidences also show that the anomalous convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool leads to the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the non-El Niño years. It is interesting to note that the teleconnection in the 500 height field associated with the warm pool convection disappears in the El Niño years. The differences of the teleconnection pattern between the El Niño years and the non-El Niño years suggest that the activities of the ASM and the convection over the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific, the most energetic weather events in boreal summer, are intertwined and interactive with other global-scale circulation in different ways under different climate backgrounds.     

南海夏季风爆发与热带海洋海温和大气环流异常变化关系的研究

用合成和相关分析方法及SVD技术研究了南海夏季风爆发早、晚年份4～6月季风建立时期季风环流的异常及其与热带太平洋-印度洋海温的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风爆发与热带大气环流和海温变异密切相关。（1）当热带中、东太平洋—印度洋（主要在西南部）及南海海温低（高）,西太平洋—澳洲邻近海域海温高（低）时,南海夏季风爆发早（晚）。不同区域海温对季风的影响有明显的季节差异,印度洋主要为晚春至初夏（4～6月）,南海为5～6月,而热带太平洋从前冬一直持续到夏季。（2）不同的海温异常产生不同的季风环流型,南海夏季风爆发早、晚年大气环流的异常变化基本相反。南海夏季风的活动主要受印度季风环流变化的影响,与前期冬春季西太副高的强弱及位置变化密切相关。西太副高弱时,南海夏季风爆发早;反之,爆发晚。（3）热带太平洋—印度洋海温异常引起季风环流和Walker环流的异常变化可能是影响南海夏季风爆发早、晚的物理过程。     

Vertical circulation in the tropical atmosphere during extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation events

Scenarios for the development of large-scale vertical circulation anomalies during warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are generalized based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1958-1998. Composite models of the cells of vertical circulation in the monsoon and trade-wind regions of the tropical Pacific are obtained for the first time for El Niño and La Niña separately. An unprecedented shift of the ascending branch of the zonal Walker circulation from the “maritime continent” of Indonesia to the east, to the central and eastern Pacific, was observed during the warm phase over the tropical Pacific; this shift was accompanied by an abrupt increase in the tropical cyclogenesis activity in the southern Pacific zone of convergence. On the contrary, during the cold phase, the ascending motions in the region of the summer Australian monsoon are subject to abrupt intensification. The reconstruction of the vertical meridional circulation during the warm phase manifested itself in the almost complete disappearance of the Hadley classic circulation over the central Pacific, characteristic of the trade-wind intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and in its replacement by the latitudinal monsoon circulation typical of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean. During a cold phase, the Hadley circulation is both restored and intensified.