热带太平洋异常暖水期的大尺度海洋-大气相互作用

本文利用一个简单的海气耦合模式研究了赤道太平洋异常暖水期(El Nino)的大尺度海气相互作用效应.研究主要集中于有关El Nino期间在热带太平洋上空观测到的双元自然态可能存在的海气反馈机制问题.数值实验的结果表明,西太平洋和东太平洋上空的表面风在相互作用中起着明显不同的作用.相互作用的净结果是沿赤道产生一个持久缓慢西移的正海平面温度距平,这与观测相符.同时也表明,由于太平洋Walke环流和大尺度海洋异常之间的耦合作用的结果,一个相互作用系统较之非相互作用系统更可能支持强 El Nino事件.     

海温异常对台风形成的影响

本文利用地球流体力学实验室(GFDL)的低分辨气候模式进行数值试验,以研究海温异常对台风形成的影响.试验采用恒定8月气候条件和海表温度(SST).海温异常(SSTA)被置于北太平洋不同区域.结果表明,台风生成频率在暖SSTA区明显增加.这是由于暖SSTA区低层辐合的增强一方面使低空气旋式环流和高空反气旋式环流加大,另一方面导致低层水汽向该区辐合,使潜热释放加强,对流加剧所致.此一机制被用于解释台风频率和ENSO事件的相关.在冷ENSO年份,西北和西南太平洋台风增多不仅是由于赤道东太平洋SST异常冷,还与西太平洋SST异常暖有关.     

一种基于TMI观测结果的海表温度反演算法

基于星载微波仪器观测结果反演海表温度,能很好地克服云对反演结果的干扰,实现对海表温度全天候的监测.文中利用热带测雨卫星所搭载的微波成像仪的观测结果,建立了一种新的适用于非降水条件下的海表温度反演算法.作为一种半经验统计算法,它以辐射传输方程为基础,通过理论模拟计算,建立海表温度与微波成像仪多通道亮温之间的关系,较好地反...     

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical...     

Equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature variations: Research note

Abstract

Monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were computed for six 10°‐wide boxes stretching across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean for the period 1890–1979. These values were used to produce a time‐longitude section of the interannual SST variability along the equator. This section shows cycles of basin‐wide warming and cooling occurring with irregular periods that typically range between two and four years. The warming and cooling events in these cycles normally display some westward phase propagation. The peak magnitudes of the interannual SST anomalies are generally of the order of 1°C or less, except in the Gulf of Guinea where they can be somewhat larger.

An estimate was made of the basin‐wide equatorial SST anomaly in each month (excluding the Gulf of Guinea). This was composited around the times of the warm and cold extremes of the Pacific Southern Oscillation. This analysis revealed a detectable, but rather weak, tendency for phase locking of the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic oceans.     

Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model

A high resolution regional atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to the spatial and temporal resolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) data used as a lower boundary condition. The model is run over an unusually large domain covering all of the North Atlantic and Europe, and is shown to produce a very good simulation of the observed storm track structure. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries with 15–20 years of data from the ERA-40 reanalysis, and at the lower boundary by SST data of differing resolution. The impacts of increasing spatial and temporal resolution are assessed separately, and in both cases increasing the resolution leads to subtle, but significant changes in the storm track. In some, but not all cases these changes act to reduce the small storm track biases seen in the model when it is forced with low-resolution SSTs. In addition there are several clear mesoscale responses to increased spatial SST resolution, with surface heat fluxes and convective precipitation increasing by 10–20% along the Gulf Stream SST gradient.     

Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model

A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models (ICMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984–2003 and the period 1997–2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.     

Holocene climate variability as derived from alkenone sea surface temperature and coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments

Holocene climate modes are identified by the statistical analysis of reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the tropical and North Atlantic regions. The leading mode of Holocene SST variability in the tropical region indicates a rapid warming from the early to mid Holocene followed by a relatively weak warming during the late Holocene. The dominant mode of the North Atlantic region SST captures the transition from relatively warm (cold) conditions in the eastern North Atlantic and the western Mediterranean Sea (the northern Red Sea) to relatively cold (warm) conditions in these regions from the early to late Holocene. This pattern of Holocene SST variability resembles the signature of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second mode of both tropical and North Atlantic regions captures a warming towards the mid Holocene and a subsequent cooling. The dominant modes of Holocene SST variability emphasize enhanced variability around 2300 and 1000 years. The leading mode of the coupled tropical-North Atlantic Holocene SST variability shows that an increase of tropical SST is accompanied by a decrease of SST in the eastern North Atlantic. An analogy with the instrumental period as well as the analysis of a long-term integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model suggest that the AO/NAO is one dominant mode of climate variability at millennial time scales.     

BCC_CSM对全球海表温度和混合层深度的模拟评估

为了定量评估北京气候中心(BCC)发展的BCC_CSM对当代全球海表温度和混合层深度的模拟能力,以WOA09(World Ocean Atlas 2009)观测资料作为检验模式的气候态实况场,提取包括BCC_CSM在内的CMIP5中的17个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估BCC_CSM模拟的全球海表温度和混合层深度的气候平均态并分析造成偏差的可能原因。结果表明:BCC_CSM模拟的海表温度在北半球中高纬的误差较大,而在其余纬度的模拟性能较佳。偏差的产生主要归因于海洋环流偏差。BCC_CSM模拟的最深混合层在北半球中高纬和南半球高纬地区的误差较大,同时这些区域也是多模式模拟差异最大的区域;其模拟的最浅混合层在南半球中高纬的偏差较大。冬季大西洋经向翻转环流的模拟在北大西洋下沉的位置偏南导致北半球高纬地区海表温度偏冷。由此认为包括BCC_CSM在内的许多海气耦合模式需重点改进对南、北半球深对流海域物理过程的描述,以提高气候预测的可信度。     

Long-term variability of sea surface temperature in Taiwan Strait

Long-term variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Taiwan Strait was studied from the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre climatological data set HadISST1. In 1957–2011, three epochs were identified. The first epoch of cooling SST lasted through 1976. The regime shift of 1976–1977 led to an extremely rapid warming of 2.1 °C in 22 years. Another regime shift occurred in 1998–1999, resulting in a 1.0 °C cooling by 2011. The cross-frontal gradient between the China Coastal Current and offshore Taiwan Strait waters has abruptly decreased in 1992 and remained low through 2011. The long-term warming of SST increased towards the East China Sea, where the SST warming in 1957–2011 was about three times that in the South China Sea. The long-term warming was strongly enhanced in winter, with the maximum warming of 3.8 °C in February. The wintertime amplification of long-term warming has resulted in a decrease of the north–south SST range from 5 to 4 °C and a decrease in the amplitude of seasonal cycle of SST from 11 to 8 °C.     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.     

Single and double ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with constant sea surface temperature and solar angle

It has been known for more than a decade that an aqua-planet model with a globally- and temporally-uniform sea surface temperature and solar isolation angle can generate intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ). Employing such a model, previous studies have shown that one of several means can be used to change between a single ITCZ over the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator. These means include switching to a different cumulus parametrization scheme, making changes within the cumulus parametrization scheme, and changing other aspects of the model such as horizontal resolution. Here, an interpretation of these findings is offered. In an aqua-planet model with globally and temporally uniform sea surface temperature and solar isolation angle, the latitudinal location of an ITCZ is the latitude where a balance exists between two types of attraction, both resulting from the Earths rotation. The first attraction pulls the ITCZ towards the equator and is not sensitive to changes in model design. It is directly related to the Coriolis parameter, which provides stability to the atmosphere. The second ssattraction pulls the ITCZ poleward and is sensitive to changes in model design. It is related to the convective circulation, modified by the Coriolis force. A balance between the two types of attraction is reached either at the equator or more than 10° north and south of the equator, depending on the shape and magnitude of the attractions. A balance at the equator yields a single ITCZ over the equator, whereas a balance north and south of the equator yields a double ITCZ straddling the equator.     

The prediction of dust erosion by wind: An interactive model

We have devised a partial differential equation for the prediction of dust concentration in a thin layer near the ground. In this equation, erosion (detachment), transport, deposition and source are parameterised in terms of known quantities. The interaction between a wind prediction model in the boundary layer and this equation affects the evolution of the dust concentration at the top of the surface layer. Numerical integrations are carried out for various values of source strength, ambient wind and particle size. Comparison with available data shows that the results appear very reasonable and that the model should be subjected to further development and testing.Notation (x, y, z, t) space co-ordinates and time (cm,t) - u, v components of horizontal wind speed (cm s^–1) - u _g, v_g components of the geostrophic wind (cm s^–1) - V=(u²+v²)^1/2 (cm s^–1) - (û v)= 1/(h – k) _k ^h(u, v)dz(cm s^–1) - V _* friction velocity (cm s^–1) - z ₀ roughness length (cm) - k ₁ von Karman constant =0.4 - V _d deposition velocity (cm s^–1) - V _g gravitational settling velocity (cm s^–1) - h height of inversion (cm) - k height of surface layer (cm) - potential temperature (°K) - _gr potential temperature at ground (°K) - _K potential temperature at top of surface layer (°K) - P pressure (mb) - P ₀ sfc pressure (mb) - C _p/C_v - (t)= /z lapse rate of potential temperature (°K cm^–1) - A(z) variation of wind with height in transition layer - B(z) variation of wind with height in transition layer - Cd drag coefficient - C _HO transfer coefficient for sensible heat - C dust concentration (g m^–3) - C _K dust concentration at top of surface layer (g m^–3) - D(z) variation with height of dust concentration - u, v, w turbulent fluctuations of the three velocity components (cm s^–1) - A ₁ constant coefficient of proportionality for heat flux =0.2 - Ri Richardson number - g gravitational acceleration =980 cm s^–2 - Re Reynolds number = - D _s thickness of laminar sub-layer (cm) - v molecular kinematic viscosity of air - coefficient of proportionality in source term - dummy variable - t time step (sec) - n time index in numerical equations On sabbatical leave at University of Aberdeen, Department of Engineering, September 1989–February 1990.     

On the impact of atmospheric vs oceanic resolutions on the representation of the sea surface temperature in the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Climate Dynamics - Despite the efforts of the modelling community to improve the representation of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic, warm biases still...     

Modes of variability of global sea surface temperature,free atmosphere temperature and oceanic surface energy flux

Monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST), free air temperature from satellite microwave sounding units (MSU) and oceanic surface energy fluxes are subjected to empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for a common decade to investigate the physical relationships involved. The first seasonal modes of surface solar energy flux and SST show similar inter-hemispheric patterns with an annual cycle. Solar flux appears to control this pattern of SST. The first seasonal mode of MSU is similar with, additionally, land-sea differences; MSU is apparently partly controlled by absorption of solar near-infrared radiation and partly by sensible heat from the land surface. The second and third seasonal eigenvector of SST and solar flux exhibit semi-annual oscillations associated with a pattern of cloudiness in the subtropics accompanying the translation of the Hadley cell rising motion between the hemispheres. The second seasonal mode of MSU is dominated by an El Niño signal. The first nonseasonal EOFs of SST and solar flux exhibit El Niño characteristics with the solar pattern being governed by west-to-east translation of a Walker cell type pattern. The first non-seasonal EOF of MSU shows a tropical strip pattern for the El Niño mode, which is well correlated with the latent heat fluxes in the tropical east Pacific but not in the tropical west Pacific. Two possible explanations are: an increase in subsidence throughout the tropical strip driven by extra evaporation in the tropical east Pacific and consequent additional latent heat liberation; a decrease of meridional heat flux out of the tropics.     

大洋间海表温度遥联与中国冬季气温的关系

利用SVD方法,在年代际和年际尺度上研究了各季北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度的遥相关关系,给出了冬季两个时间尺度上的遥联指数I,并分析了它们与同期中国冬季气温及亚太冬季风的相关关系.结果表明:北大西洋和北太平洋在两个时间尺度上的海表温度遥联均与同期中国冬季气温相关;特别在年代际尺度上两大洋海表温度遥联与我国河套以南及长江中游地区冬季气温有显著正相关.其影响途径可能是两大洋海温异常引起亚太冬季风异常、继而引起我国冬季气温异常.     

Change point detection of the Persian Gulf sea surface temperature

In this study, the Student’s t parametric and Mann-Whitney nonparametric change point models (CPMs) were applied to detect change point in the annual Persian Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies (PGSSTA) time series for the period 1951–2013. The PGSSTA time series, which were serially correlated, were transformed to produce an uncorrelated pre-whitened time series. The pre-whitened PGSSTA time series were utilized as the input file of change point models. Both the applied parametric and nonparametric CPMs estimated the change point in the PGSSTA in 1992. The PGSSTA follow the normal distribution up to 1992 and thereafter, but with a different mean value after year 1992. The estimated slope of linear trend in PGSSTA time series for the period 1951–1992 was negative; however, that was positive after the detected change point. Unlike the PGSSTA, the applied CPMs suggested no change point in the Niño3.4SSTA time series.