Wavelet Analysis of solar,solar wind and geomagnetic parameters

The sunspot number, solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity index A _p have been analyzed using a wavelet technique to look for the presence of periods and the temporal evolution of these periods. The global wavelet spectra of these parameters, which provide information about the temporal average strength of quasi periods, exhibit the presence of a variety of prominent quasi periods around 16 years, 10.6 years, 9.6 years, 5.5 years, 1.3 years, 180 days, 154 days, 27 days, and 14 days. The wavelet spectra of sunspot number during 1873–2000, geomagnetic activity index A _p during 1932–2000, and solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field during 1964–2000 indicate that their spectral power evolves with time. In general, the power of the oscillations with a period of less than one year evolves rapidly with the phase of the solar cycle with their peak values changing from one cycle to the next. The temporal evolution of wavelet power in R _z, v _sw, n, B _y, B _z, |B|, and A _p for each of the prominent quasi periods is studied in detail.     

Coronal holes,solar wind streams,and geomagnetic activity during the new sunspot cycle

We have extended our previous study of coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic disturbances from the declining phase (1973–1975) of sunspot cycle 20 through sunspot minimum (1976) into the rising phase (1977) of cycle 21. Using daily He I 10830 Å spectroheliograms and photospheric magnetograms, we found the following results:

1. As the magnetic field patterns changed, the solar atmosphere evolved from a structure having a few, large, long-lived, low-latitude coronal holes to one having numerous small, short-lived, high-latitude holes (in addition to the polar holes which persisted throughout this 5-year interval).
2. The high-latitude holes recurred with a synodic rotation period of 28–29 days instead of the 27-day period already known to be characteristic of low-latitude holes.
3. During 1976–1977 many coronal holes were intrinsically ‘weak’ in the sense that their average intensities did not differ greatly from the intensity of their surroundings. Such low-contrast holes were rare during 1973–1975.

An updated Bartels display of the occurrence of holes, wind speed, and geomagnetic activity summarizes the evolution of their characteristics and interrelations as the sunspot cycle has progressed. Long-lived, low-latitude holes have become rare but remain terrestrially effective. The more common high-latitude holes are effective only when the Earth lies at a relatively high heliographic latitude in the same solar hemisphere.     

Coronal holes,solar wind streams,and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances: 1973–1976

Observations of coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic disturbances during 1973–1976 are compared in a 27-day pictorial format which shows their long-term evolution. The results leave little doubt that coronal holes are related to the high-speed streams and their associated recurrent geomagnetic disturbances. In particular, these observations strongly support the hypothesis that coronal holes are the solar origin of the high-speed streams observed in the solar wind near the ecliptic plane.Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Arizona.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

North-south asymmetry in solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic indices

Data of hourly interplanetary plasma (field magnitude, solar wind speed, and ion density), solar (sunspot number, solar radio flux), and geomagnetic indices (Kp, Ap) over the period 1970-2010, have been used to examine the asymmetry between the solar field north and south of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). A persistent yearly north-south asymmetry of the field magnitude is clear over the considered period, and there is no magnetic solar cycle dependence. There is a weak N-S asymmetry in the averaged solar wind speed, exhibited well at times of maximum solar activities. The solar plasma is more dense north of the current sheet than south of it during the second negative solar polarity epoch (qA < 0). Moreover, the N - S asymmetry in solar activity (Rz) can be statistically highly significant. The sign of the average N - S asymmetry depends upon the solar magnetic polarity. The annual magnitudes of N - S asymmetry depend positively on the solar magnetic cycle. Most of the solar radio flux asymmetries occurred during the period of positive IMF polarity.     

Coronal holes,solar wind streams,and geomagnetic disturbances during 1978 and 1979

We have extended our long-term study of coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic disturbances through the rising phase of sunspot cycle 21 into the era of sunspot maximum. During 1978 and 1979, coronal holes reflected the influence of differential rotation, and existed within a slowly-evolving large-scale pattern despite the relatively high level of sunspot activity. The long-lived 28.5-day pattern is not produced by a rigidly-rotating quasi-stationary structure on the Sun, but seems to be produced by a non-stationary migratory process associated with solar differential rotation. The association between coronal holes and solar wind speed enhancements at Earth continues to depend on the latitude of the holes (relative to the heliographic latitude of Earth), but even the best associations since 1976 have speeds of only 500–600 km s^-1 rather than the values of 600–700 km s^-1 that usually occurred during the declining phase of sunspot cycle 20.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

A solar cycle variation of the interplanetary magnetic field

Measurements of the north-south (B _z component of the interplanetary field as compiled by King (1975) when organized into yearly histograms of the values of ¦B _z ¦ reveal the following. (1) The histograms decrease exponentially from a maximum occurrence frequency at the value ¦B _z ¦ = 0. (2) The slope of the exponential on a semi-log plot varies systematically roughly in phase with the sunspot number in such a way that the probability of large values of ¦B _z ¦ is much greater in the years near sunspot maximum than in the years near sunspot minimum. (3) There is a sparsely populated high-value tail, for which the data are too meager to discern any solar cycle variation. The high-value tail is perhaps associated with travelling interplanetary disturbances. (4) The solar cycle variations of B _z and the ordinary indicators of solar activity are roughly correlated. (5) The solar cycle variation of B _z is distinctly different than that of the solar wind speed and that of the geomagnetic Ap disturbance index.Now at the Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, Calif. 90245, U.S.A.     

Sources of intense geomagnetic storms over the rise of solar cycle 23

In this work we present a study of the triggers of intense geomagnetic storms since the launch of the WIND spacecraft, November 1995 until December 2001. Reviewing the signatures of solar wind flow, we looked for two different kinds of interplanetary events associated with intense geomagnetic storms: ejecta and corotating solar wind streams. We also looked for the solar origin related to both events. We provide a list of the solar–terrestrial events during the rising phase of this solar cycle. The paper includes statistical conclusions that shed light onto the paradigm of geomagnetic storms.     

Sources of intense geomagnetic storms over the rise of solar cycle 23

In this work we present a study of the triggers of intense geomagnetic storms since the launch of the WIND spacecraft, November 1995 until December 2001. Reviewing the signatures of solar wind flow, we looked for two different kinds of interplanetary events associated with intense geomagnetic storms: ejecta and corotating solar wind streams. We also looked for the solar origin related to both events. We provide a list of the solar–terrestrial events during the rising phase of this solar cycle. The paper includes statistical conclusions that shed light onto the paradigm of geomagnetic storms.     

Ten cycles of solar and geomagnetic activity

Series of 110 years of sunspot numbers and indices of geomagnetic activity are used with 17 years of solar wind data in order to study through solar cycles both stream and shock event solar activity. According to their patterns on Bartels diagrams of geomagnetic indices, stable wind streams and transient solar activities are separated from each other. Two classes of stable streams are identified: equatorial streams occurring sporadically, for several months, during the main phase of sunspot cycles and both polar streams established, for several years, at each cycle, before sunspot minimum. Polar streams are the first activity of solar cycles. For study of the relationship between transient geomagnetic phenomena and sunspot activity, we raise the importance of the contribution, at high spot number, of severe storms and, at low spot number, of short lived and unstable streams. Solar wind data are used to check and complete the above results. As a conclusion, we suggest a unified scheme of solar activity evolution with a starting point every eleventh year, a total duration of 17 years and an overlapping of 6 years between the first and the last phase of both successive series of phenomena: first, from polar field reversal to sunspot minimum, a phase of polar wind activity of the beginning cycle is superimposed on the weak contribution of shock events of the ending cycle; secondly, an equatorial phase mostly of shock events is superimposed on a variable contribution of short lived and sporadic stable equatorial stream activities; and thirdly a phase of low latitude shock events is superimposed on the polar stream interval of the following cycle.     

Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks during solar minimum (1995–1996) and solar maximum (2000)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations across fast forward interplanetary shocks are analyzed during the last solar cycle minimum (1995–1996, 15 shocks), and maximum year 2000 (50 shocks). It was observed that the solar wind velocity and magnetic field strength variation across the shocks were the parameters better correlated with Dst. Superposed epoch analysis centered on the shock showed that, during solar minimum, B _z profiles had a southward, long-duration variation superposed with fluctuations, whereas in solar maximum the B _z profile presented 2 peaks. The first peak occurred 4 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the magnetic field disturbed by the shock in the sheath region. The second peak occurred 19 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the ejecta fields. The difference in shape and peak in solar maximum (Dst peak =−50 nT, moderate activity) and minimum (Dst peak =−30 nT, weak activity) in average Dst profiles after shocks are, probably, a consequence of the energy injection in the magnetosphere being driven by different interplanetary southward magnetic structures. A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was also obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst≤−100 nT) and 28% by moderate (−50≤Dst <−100 nT) geomagnetic activity. During solar minimum, 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity, respectively. Thus, during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks might be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50–60% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Preferred bartels days of high-speed plasma streams in the solar wind

An analysis of 346 high-speed solar wind streams observed at 1 AU during 1964–75 is presented. The analysis shows that a two-sector structure was the dominant feature of the interplanetary magnetic field associated with the high-speed solar wind plasma. The high-speed streams occurred at preferred Bartels days: Positive polarity streams were most frequent near Bartels day 4, negative polarity streams were most frequent near Bartels day 17. Since the solar wind carries with it the photospheric magnetic polarity of the solar source region, the observed distribution of Bartels days must indicate a fundamental property of the distribution of the solar sources of high-speed plasma streams. The observations are explained in terms of a tilted dipole model of the solar-interplanetary field.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

The structure of the interplanetary medium during the first stip interval (September–October 1975) and prerelease of energetic solar particles

An analysis of the interplanetary medium structure is made during STIP 1. (September–October, 1975). Using a simple extrapolation method a reconstruction of the stream lines is made which shows that the interplanetary space during this time period was very quiet. Such a behaviour is expected because this interval is close to the minimum of the solar cycle activity.The evolution of two fast solar wind streams, which dominated the interplanetary medium for very long time periods, is studied.A peculiar solar proton event, with onset time before the optical flare, is explained according to Elliot mechanism — i.e., that energetic particles are stored for a long time and released, sometimes, before the optical flare.These particles can be seen only when the interplanetary medium is very quiet, (without shock waves) and the flare very isolated.     

Solar Wind Streams And Intense Geomagnetic Storms Observed During 1986–1991

We have analyze the set of 70 intense geomagnetic storms associatedwith D_st decrease of more than 100 nT, observed duringthe period (1986–1991). We have compile these selected intensegeomagnetic storm events and find out their association with twotypes of solar wind streams and different interplanetary parameters.We concluded that the maximum numbers of intense geomagneticstorms are associated with transient disturbances in solar wind streams,which causes strong interplanetary shocks in interplanetary medium.The association of supersonic shocks and magnetic clouds with intensegeomagnetic storms have also been discussed.     

Polar coronal holes and solar cycles

The relationship between the geomagnetic activity of the three years preceding a sunspot minimum and the peak of the next sunspot maximum confirms the polar origin of the solar wind during one part of the solar cycle. Pointing out that the polar holes have a very small size or disappear at the time of the polar field reversal, we suggest a low latitude origin of the solar wind at sunspot maximum and we describe the cycle variation of solar wind and geomagnetic activity. In addition we note a close relationship between the maximum level of the geomagnetic activity reached few years before a solar minimum and its level at the next sunspot maximum. Studying separately the effects of both the low latitude holes and the solar activity, we point out the possibility of predicting both the level of geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number at the next sunspot maximum. As a conclusion we specify the different categories of phenomena contributing to a solar cycle.     

The mean coronal magnetic field determined from HELIOS Faraday rotation measurements

Coronal Faraday rotation of the linearly polarized carrier signals of the HELIOS spacecraft was recorded during the regularly occurring solar occultations over almost a complete solar cycle from 1975 to 1984. These measurements are used to determine the average strength and radial variation of the coronal magnetic field at solar minimum at solar distances from 3–10 solar radii, i.e., the range over which the complex fields at the coronal base are transformed into the interplanetary spiral. The mean coronal magnetic field in 1975–1976 was found to decrease with radial distance according to r ^–, where = 2.7 ± 0.2. The mean field magnitude was 1.0 ± 0.5 × 10 ^–5 tesla at a nominal solar distance of 5 solar radii. Possibly higher magnetic field strengths were indicated at solar maximum, but a lack of data prevented a statistical determination of the mean coronal field during this epoch.     

Reconstruction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers on the Basis of Spectral Characteristics and Estimates of Associated Radio Flux and Solar Wind Parameters for the Last Millennium

A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R _z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F _10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

Analysis of the complex solar particle event on April 29–30, 1973

Based on the data of the high-apogee satellite Prognoz-3, the April 29–30, 1973 solar particle event is analysed. The event's complex energetic particle, interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma properties are discussed. The unusual behaviour of solar particles up to energies 100 MeV can well be explained in terms of the interaction with an interplanetary shock wave system passing the Earth. Assuming that the structure of the interplanetary shock wave system is similar to that considered first by Parker (1961) and Gold (1959) and reviewed later by Hundhausen (1972) and Dryer (1974, 1975), the main characteristics of the energetic particle fluxes, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field can be understood.     

Relationships Among Magnetic Clouds, CMES, and Geomagnetic Storms

During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs (17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number. When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs, because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst _min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period.     

Short-Period Features of the Interplanetary Plasma and Their Evolution

The solar wind plasma exhibits many features of the solar surface passed on to the interplanetary medium as temporal variations due to the solar rotation. The yearly average values of solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic index A _p during 1965–1999 were found to exhibit long period evolution. They were found to peak around the declining phase of each solar cycle. While the solar wind velocity peaks around the second half of the declining phase, the IMF field strength increases around the first half of the declining phase of each solar cycle. The power spectrum of these parameters shows peaks around 37-day, 30-day, 27-day, 13.5-day, 9-day, and 7-day periods. The temporal evolution of the power spectrum of the solar wind plasma parameters and the geomagnetic activity index A _p are also studied in detail and presented with the help of contour graphs. These studies indicate that the strength of the quasi-periodicities in the interplanetary medium evolves with time.     

Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24

A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.