Coronal holes,solar wind streams,and geomagnetic activity during the new sunspot cycle

We have extended our previous study of coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic disturbances from the declining phase (1973–1975) of sunspot cycle 20 through sunspot minimum (1976) into the rising phase (1977) of cycle 21. Using daily He I 10830 Å spectroheliograms and photospheric magnetograms, we found the following results:

1. As the magnetic field patterns changed, the solar atmosphere evolved from a structure having a few, large, long-lived, low-latitude coronal holes to one having numerous small, short-lived, high-latitude holes (in addition to the polar holes which persisted throughout this 5-year interval).
2. The high-latitude holes recurred with a synodic rotation period of 28–29 days instead of the 27-day period already known to be characteristic of low-latitude holes.
3. During 1976–1977 many coronal holes were intrinsically ‘weak’ in the sense that their average intensities did not differ greatly from the intensity of their surroundings. Such low-contrast holes were rare during 1973–1975.

An updated Bartels display of the occurrence of holes, wind speed, and geomagnetic activity summarizes the evolution of their characteristics and interrelations as the sunspot cycle has progressed. Long-lived, low-latitude holes have become rare but remain terrestrially effective. The more common high-latitude holes are effective only when the Earth lies at a relatively high heliographic latitude in the same solar hemisphere.     

A solar cycle variation of the interplanetary magnetic field

Measurements of the north-south (B _z component of the interplanetary field as compiled by King (1975) when organized into yearly histograms of the values of ¦B _z ¦ reveal the following. (1) The histograms decrease exponentially from a maximum occurrence frequency at the value ¦B _z ¦ = 0. (2) The slope of the exponential on a semi-log plot varies systematically roughly in phase with the sunspot number in such a way that the probability of large values of ¦B _z ¦ is much greater in the years near sunspot maximum than in the years near sunspot minimum. (3) There is a sparsely populated high-value tail, for which the data are too meager to discern any solar cycle variation. The high-value tail is perhaps associated with travelling interplanetary disturbances. (4) The solar cycle variations of B _z and the ordinary indicators of solar activity are roughly correlated. (5) The solar cycle variation of B _z is distinctly different than that of the solar wind speed and that of the geomagnetic Ap disturbance index.Now at the Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, Calif. 90245, U.S.A.     

Simulations of the gross solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21

Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, we have simulated the evolution of the radial component of the solar photospheric magnetic field during 1976–1984 with a spatial resolution of about 34 000 km, and have derived the corresponding evolution of its absolute value averaged over the visible disk. For nominal values of the transport parameters, this simulated gross field is in close, though imperfect, agreement with the observed gross field and its associated indices of solar activity. By analyzing the response of the simulated gross field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties, we find that the simulated field originates in newly erupted bipolar regions. The lifetimes of these regions are almost always less than 3 mo. Consequently, the strength of the simulated gross field is a measure of the current level of solar activity, and any recurrent patterns with lifetimes in excess of 6 mo must reflect the continuing eruption of new flux at active longitudes rather than the persistence of old flux in long-lived magnetic structures.E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.Laboratory for Computational Physics.Berkeley Research Associates, Springfield, VA.     

Simulations of the mean solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21

Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, we have computed the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during 1976–1984 and derived the corresponding evolution of the mean line-of-sight field as seen from Earth. We obtained a good, but imperfect, agreement between the observed mean field and the field computed for a nominal choice of flux transport parameters. Also, we determined the response of the computed mean field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties. The results lead us to regard the mean-field evolution as a random-walk process with dissipation. New eruptions of flux produce the random walk, and together differential rotation, meridional flow (if present), and diffusion provide the dissipation. The net effect of each new source depends on its strength and orientation (relative to the strength and orientation of the mean field) and on the time elapsed before the next eruption (relative to the decay time of the field). Thus the mean field evolves principally due to the contributions of the larger sources, which produce a strong, gradually evolving field near sunspot maximum but a weak, sporadically evolving field near sunspot minimum.E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.Laboratory for Computational Physics.     

A solar cycle variation of the interplanetary magnetic field configuration

The representation of the sector boundaries, published by Svalgaard (1974, 1975) in a superposed 27-days Bartels format showed that they have a significant preference to occur in certain days of the solar rotation. Further study of these data, as well as of the polarized days in the vicinity of them, pointed out that during the epoch of extrema of the 11-year cycle there is a well-established 2-sector structure, on the average. On the contrary, a mean 4-sector structure is more prominent during the intermediate years.     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

On the limitations of geomagnetic measures of interplanetary magnetic polarity

Solar Physics - The maximum attainable accuracy in inferring the interplanetary magnetic polarity from polar cap magnetograms is about 88 %. This is achieved in practice, when high latitude polar...     

Dependence of the solar wind speed on the coronal magnetic field in cycle 23

The dependence of the position of the solar wind sonic point on the magnetic field in the solar corona during cycle 23 is studied. This dependence is shown to be rather strong in the rising phase and at the cycle maximum. As the coronal magnetic field grows, the distance to the sonic point decreases. Since the distance to the sonic point has been shown previously to anticorrelate with the solar wind speed, the result obtained suggests a strong positive correlation between the later and the coronal magnetic field. The situation changed dramatically two years after the calendar date of the cycle maximum. Beginning in 2004 the solar wind speed ceased to depend on the magnetic field up until the cycle minimum in December 2008. In 2009 a strong dependence of the wind speed on the coronal magnetic field was restored. It is hypothesized that this effect is associated with two different coronal heating mechanisms whose relative efficiency, in turn, depends on the contribution from magnetic fields of different scales.     

Study of cosmic ray intensity in relation to the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic storms for solar cycle 24

In the present study, we investigate the association of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) with various solar wind parameters (i.e. solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B), geomagnetic storms (GSs), averaged planetary A-index (Ap index) and sun spot number (SSN) for the period 2009–2016 (solar cycle 24) by using their daily mean average. To find the association of CRI with various solar wind parameters, GSs, IMF B, Ap index and SSN, we incorporate the analysis technique by superposed-epoch method. We have observed that CRI decreases with the increase in IMF B. Moreover the time-lag analysis has been performed by the method of correlation coefficient and observed a time lag of 0 to 2 day between the decrease in CRI and increase in IMF B. In addition, we show that the CRI is found to decrease in a similar pattern to disturbance storm time (Dst index) for most of the period of solar cycle 24. The high and positive correlation is found between CRI and Dst index. The CRI and Ap index are better anti-correlated to each other than CRI and IMF. CRI and SSN are positively correlated with each other. Solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V is a CR-effective parameter while plasma proton temperature and plasma proton density are not CR-effective parameters. The indicated parameters such as Dst index, Ap index, IMF B and solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density shows a kind of irregular variations for solar cycle 23 and 24 while CRI and SSN shows distinct behaviour for the two cycle.     

Latitudinal and solar-cycle dependence of the interplanetary magnetic field predominant polarity

A study of the predominant interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity is made, for the time period 1957–1977. The examination of the mean positive and negative sector width for time periods (semesters) for which the Earth was in northern and southern heliolatitudes shows that the predominant polarity for every semester follows, up to a certain extent, the Rosenberg-Coleman effect. However, the statistical support is not satisfactory. The same conclusion was pointed out by a similar study of data grouped over various phases of the solar cycle.Additionally the relative frequency of positive (negative) IMF polarity days, appeared over a mean solar rotation, shows that the general pattern of the mean IMF has a tendency to reoccur in the homologous (corresponding) phases of different solar cycles.     

A study of the geomagnetic indices asymmetry based on the interplanetary magnetic field polarities

Data of geomagnetic indices (aa, Kp, Ap, and Dst) recorded near 1 AU over the period 1967–2016, have been studied based on the asymmetry between the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directions above and below of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). Our results led to the following conclusions: (i) Throughout the considered period, 31 random years (62%) showed apparent asymmetries between Toward (\(\mathbf{T}\)) and Away (\(\mathbf{A}\)) polarity days and 19 years (38%) exhibited nearly a symmetrical behavior. The days of \(\mathbf{A}\) polarity predominated over the \(\mathbf{T}\) polarity days by 4.3% during the positive magnetic polarity epoch (1991–1999). While the days of \(\mathbf{T}\) polarity exceeded the days of \(\mathbf{A}\) polarity by 5.8% during the negative magnetic polarity epoch (2001–2012). (ii) Considerable yearly North–South (N–S) asymmetries of geomagnetic indices observed throughout the considered period. (iii) The largest toward dominant peaks for \(aa\) and \(Ap\) indices occurred in 1995 near to minimum of solar activity. Moreover, the most substantial away dominant peaks for \(aa\) and \(Ap\) indices occurred in 2003 (during the descending phase of the solar cycle 23) and in 1991 (near the maximum of solar activity cycle) respectively. (iv) The N–S asymmetry of \(Kp\) index indicated a most significant away dominant peak occurred in 2003. (v) Four of the away dominant peaks of Dst index occurred at the maxima of solar activity in the years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2013. The largest toward dominant peak occurred in 1991 (at the reversal of IMF polarity). (vi) The geomagnetic indices (aa, Ap, and \(Kp\)) all have northern dominance during positive magnetic polarity epoch (1971–1979), while the asymmetries shifts to the southern solar hemisphere during negative magnetic polarity epoch (2001–2012).     

Control of impulsive penetration of solar wind irregularities into the magnetosphere by the interplanetary magnetic field direction

Impulsive penetration of a solar wind filament into the magnetosphere is possible when the plasma element has an excess momentum density with respect to the background medium. This first condition is satisfied when the density is larger inside than outside the plasma inhomogeneity. In this paper we discuss the second condition which must be satisfied for such a plasma element to be captured by the magnetosphere: the magnetization vector (M) carried by this plasma must have a positive component along the direction of B₀, the magnetic field where the element penetrates through the magnetopause. On the contrary, when $\text{M · B}{}_0\text{< 0}$, the filament is stopped at the surface of the magnetopause. Thus the outcome of the interaction of the filament with the magnetosphere depends upon the orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. For instance, penetration and capture in the frontside magnetosphere implies that B_sw, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field, has a southward, or a small northward, component. Penetration and capture in the northern lobe of the magnetotail is favoured for an IMF pointing away from the Sun; in the southern lobe B_sw must be directed towards the Sun for capture. Finally, for capture in the vicinity of the polar cusps the magnetospheric field (B₀) assumes a wider range of orientations. Therefore, near the neutral points, it is easier to find a place where the condition $\text{M · B}{}_0\text{> 0}$ is satisfied than elsewhere. As a consequence, the penetration and capture of solar wind irregularities in the cleft regions is possible for almost any orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field direction. All observations made to date support these theoretical conclusions.     

A survey of coronal holes and their solar wind associations throughout sunspot cycle 20

To gain insight into the relationships between solar activity, the occurrence and variability of coronal holes, and the association of such holes with solar wind features such as high-velocity streams, a study of the period 1963–1974 was made. This period corresponds approximately with sunspot cycle 20. The primary data used for this work consisted of X-ray and XUV solar images obtained from rockets. The investigation revealed that:

1. The polar coronal holes prominent at solar minimum, decreased in area as solar activity increased and were small or absent at maximum phase. This evolution exhibited the same phase difference between the two hemispheres that was observed in other indicators of activity.
2. During maximum, coronal holes occurred poleward of the sunspot belts and in the equatorial region between them. The observed equatorial holes were small and persisted for one or two solar rotations only; some high latitude holes had lifetimes exceeding two solar rotations.
3. During 1963–74 whenever XUV or X-ray images were available, nearly all recurrent solar wind streams of speed ?500 km s^?1 were found associated with coronal holes at less than 40° latitude; however some coronal holes appeared to have no associated wind streams at the Earth.

     

Influence of a solar active region on the interplanetary magnetic field

The interplanetary magnetic field has been mapped between 0.4 and 1.2 AU in the ecliptic plane, extrapolating from satellite measurements at 1 AU. The structure within sectors and the evolution of sectors are discussed. The development of a solar active region appears to produce magnetic loops in the interplanetary medium that result in the formation of a new sector.     

Wavelet Analysis of solar,solar wind and geomagnetic parameters

The sunspot number, solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity index A _p have been analyzed using a wavelet technique to look for the presence of periods and the temporal evolution of these periods. The global wavelet spectra of these parameters, which provide information about the temporal average strength of quasi periods, exhibit the presence of a variety of prominent quasi periods around 16 years, 10.6 years, 9.6 years, 5.5 years, 1.3 years, 180 days, 154 days, 27 days, and 14 days. The wavelet spectra of sunspot number during 1873–2000, geomagnetic activity index A _p during 1932–2000, and solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field during 1964–2000 indicate that their spectral power evolves with time. In general, the power of the oscillations with a period of less than one year evolves rapidly with the phase of the solar cycle with their peak values changing from one cycle to the next. The temporal evolution of wavelet power in R _z, v _sw, n, B _y, B _z, |B|, and A _p for each of the prominent quasi periods is studied in detail.     

Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index) during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68) and aa index(0.86) during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13± 14.97 and 104.23± 17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.