Mass upflows and magnetic-field dynamics in a forming sunspot penumbra

The formation of the penumbra of the leading spot of the active region NOAA 11117 has been studied using data fromthe Solar DynamicObservatory (SDO). HMI data on longitudinal magnetic fields, line-of-sight velocities, and continuum images were used. The appearance of localized upflows between the umbra and undisturbed photosphere precedes the penumbra formation. The sizes of them reach 1.5″–2″ and the velocity increases to 1 km/s over several minutes. These localized upflows change themselves to a region of material flowing horizontally from the penumbra (the Evershed effect). The formation of individual spine namely fine radial element of the penumbra magnetic field with higher strength and lower inclination than in the surrounding is traced for the first time. The formation of the spine manifests itself as appearance of region of 2″–3″ in size with enhanced upflow near the sunspot umbra, protrusion in longitudinal-field contours on one side of the upwelling center, and the subsequent appearance of magnetic pole of opposite polarity on the other side of the upwelling. This process is accompanied by a bending of the contour marking the boundary of the undisturbed photosphere, which puts the upwelling center in a zone of higher brightness. One possible explanation for this is the emergence of hot magnetic tube. The appearance and growth of the sunspot spines results in the formation of the penumbra.     

Pulsating evershed flows and propagating waves in a sunspot

A comparative analysis of oscillatory spectra based on 66 time series for 14 active regions observed in 2001 shows that, although the chromospheric and photospheric oscillations in the Evershed flow zone possess many common features, there is no firm evidence that the direct and inverse flows have the same physical origin. The interactions between the various oscillation modes and stationary flows results in a complex pattern of wave motions in a sunspot. We studied the Doppler-velocity variations in the sunspot NOAA 0051 during its motion over the disk. The spatial-temporal distribution of the line-of-sight velocity in the chromospheric umbra displays a chevron structure, clearly indicating the presence of propagating waves. These waves move from the center of the umbra to outer regions with a phase speed of 45–60 km/s, a period of 2.8 min, and a measured Doppler speed of 2 km/s. The amplitude of these oscillations decreases abruptly at the boundary between the umbra and penumbra, and the observed waves are not directly related to propagating penumbral waves. Furthermore, the observed pattern of the photospheric velocities shows periodic motions (with a period of 5 min) directed from the inner boundary of the penumbra and superpenumbra toward the line of maximum Evershed velocity.     

Dynamics of magnetic tubes during the formation of a large sunspot

The emergence of new magnetic flux in the powerful active region NOAA 10488 on the Sun and the formation of a leading spot is studied using SOHO/MDI data. Magnetograms of the longitudinal magnetic field and radial-velocity data obtained with a temporal resolution of 1 min are analyzed. The analysis begins several hours before the appearance of the top of a rising buoyant loop-like tube of magnetic field in the photosphere and finishes two days later, when the leading spot has formed. The emerging arches of magnetic field had a complex, multi-layered structure. Their apparent concentration can be explained by the emergence of the leading base of an ascending ?? tube. The new magnetic flux emerged in the inner parts of the active region throughout the formation of the leading sunspot, and was accompanied by the development of a penumbra and the appearance of the Evershed effect in the southwest sector of the sunspot. Simultaneous with the development of Evershed flows, the outer parts of the longitudinal magnetic field were gradually separated from the sunspot in the radial direction. As a result, a moat and a quasi-annular structure were formed in the magnetic field. The formation of a ??moat?? cell is part of the unified large-scale formation of the sunspot and the entire active region. The formation of an active region and of its structures is a manifestation of large-scale processes taking place in subphotospheric layers.     

The microwave radiation of the corona above a large single sunspot in right- and left-circular polarization

Results of a study of the corona above a large sunspot in the active region NOAA 10105 with a penumbra size of ～70″ observed in September 2002 are reported. Maps of the active region and emission spectra were constructed using observational data from the NoRH, SSRT, and RATAN-600 telescopes. The sizes and brightness temperatures of the microwave emission above the sunspot are determined. SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak magnetograms, as well as CaII K line images obtained at the Meudon Observatory, are compared. The derived characteristics are interpreted as cyclotron emission of thermal plasma, assuming a dipole structure for themagnetic field. A stable darkening at the sunspot center observed at short wavelengths and only in the ordinary emission mode was detected. A jump-like change was observed in the structure of the sunspot source in the ordinary emission mode, due to an increase in the size and spectral flux density. These results demand a fundamental correction of model concepts about cyclotron emission sources above sunspots, since they are at variance with the initial assumptions. It is suggested that, at the top of the transition region, the cyclotron emission source may be represented only by the third gyrolevel, but is observed in the extraordinary and ordinary emission modes (in contrast to the generally accepted model, which has a combination of the second and third gyrolevels). Taking into account the new observational data may allow us to refine model distributions of the main parameters of the coronal plasma above sunspots (the electron temperature and density) and information about the character of the magnetic field.     

Short-period variations in the proper motions of sunspots from SOHO (MDI) observations

Short-period (1–60 min) variations in the coordinates of the centers of gravity of isolated sunspots are analyzed. The sunspot coordinated were determined using two sets of observational data—magnetograms and intensities—obtained by SOHO (MDI) on December 6, 1998, from 01:00 to 21:57 UT with temporal resolution 60 s and spatial resolution 0.6″/pixel. A slow drift in the sunspot coordinates was removed using a low-frequency filter with a 61-min integration window. The guiding errors (RMS～0.014″) were determined by analyzing correlated motions in pairs of sunspots, and were removed from the time series before determining the sunspot proper motions. Based on the calculated power spectra for the sunspot proper motions, two period intervals containing appreciable power were identified. One coincides with the well-known 5-min acoustic solar oscillations. The concentration of power in this interval is greater for the coordinate variations derived the magnetograms than those derived from the intensities; the harmonic amplitude for some peaks reaches ～±30 km. The other spectral interval corresponds to periods exceeding 30 min. Overall, the rms short-period variations in the sunspot proper motions are 9.9±2.2 and 16.7±7.6 km (0.014″±0.003″ and 0.024″±0.010″) for the magnetogram and intensity data, respectively.     

The Motion of Magnetic Elements in and around Sunspot Penumbrae

Structural magnetic elements observed in sunspot penumbrae are employed as indicators of motions occurring in and around penumbrae. The analysis presented here is base on SDO/HMI continuum images and magnetograms of the line-of-sight field obtained for the active region NOAA 11117. In a first approximation, the penumbral magnetic fields can be considered alternating spines and interspine filaments. In the plane of the sky, spines are thin radial elements with higher field strengths and lower magnetic-field inclinations compared with those in surrounding areas. It is confirmed that spines first appear as protrusions of the umbra magnetic fields visible in magnetograms, and then develop simultaneously with the growth of the penumbra. The departure of magnetic elements from penumbrae as a result of the detachment of the ends of spines begin 1–1.5 h after the spine formation. Inmature penumbrae, magnetic elements emerge fairly often, and the departure of groups of field elements sometimes generates structures resembling moving ribbons. The velocities of magnetic elements that have separated from spines are a factor of two to three lower than those of elements that have separated from inter-spine filaments. The results obtained agree well with an “uncombed” model for the penumbral magnetic fields.     

Latitude characteristics of the sunspot formation zone and the 11-year solar activity cycle

Using data of the extended Greenwich sunspot catalog for 1874–2006, annual average values of some quantities characterizing the latitude distribution of sunspot activity have been calculated. The quantity describing the width of the sunspot formation zone is closely correlated with the corresponding Wolf numbers. A latitude characteristic has been found that demonstrates in a particular time interval in the fourth year after the maximum of the current 11-year cycle a high correlation with the Wolf number at the maximum of the next cycle. This time interval is characterized by extreme differences between the speeds of the motion of the mean latitude and the upper boundary of the sunspot formation zone. A model displaying good stability and enabling forecasting of the amplitudes of the next 11-year cycles is constructed based on the found correlation. According to these forecasts, the activity of the next (24th) cycle will be 20–30% higher than in the previous one.     

Internal gravity waves over an oscillating sunspot

Internal gravity waves excited in the overlying atmosphere by the proper vertical oscillations of an entire sunspot are studied. For simplicity, the oscillations of the sunspot are introduced into the model through the lower boundary conditions, by specifying oscillations in the vertical velocity. The characteristic radius of the oscillating region is assumed to equal the spot size and the frequency to correspond to the long-period natural oscillations of the spot. Results of numerical computations are presented. It is shown that internal gravity waves propagate nearly in the horizontal direction. Therefore, immediately above the spot, the wave energy drops exponentially with the height, in good agreement with the available observational data. The level where the amplitude and energy density of the wave are maximum rises slowly with distance from the spot.     

松花江流域水旱灾害发生规律及长期预报研究

以太阳活动为中心,以长期和超长期水文预报为目标,用数理统计分析方法,分析太阳黑子、埃尔尼诺事件(El Ni?o event)对松花江区域水文影响特征与其水、旱灾害发生的基本规律。揭示了“埃尔尼诺”和太阳活动11年周期的联系,把1810年～1991年间的太阳活动按强度划分为强弱两段,给出了强弱两段中事件产生不同水文影响的黑子数临界值,建立以黑子数为参数的“同年”水文计算的方程式。分析了1898年以来强弱两段中事件影响松花江流域发生水、旱灾害的规律性;用降水量为指标分析旱涝规律,揭示了降水量按磁周期时段呈丰、枯水周期性变化的规律。研究结果为长期水文预报提供了途径。     

GPS based TEC measurements for a period August 2008– December 2009 near the northern crest of Indian equatorial ionospheric anomaly region

In recent years, measurements of total electron content (TEC) have gained importance with increasing demand for the GPS-based navigation applications in trans-ionospheric communications. To study the variation in ionospheric TEC, we used the data obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system which is in operation at SVNIT, Surat, India (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region. The data collected (for the low sunspot activity period from August 2008–December 2009) were used to study the diurnal, monthly, seasonal semi-annual and annual variations of TEC at Surat. It was observed that the diurnal variation at the region reaches its maximum value between 13:00 and 16:00 IST. The monthly average diurnal variations showed that the TEC maximizes during the equinox months followed by the winter months, and are lowest during the summer months. The ionospheric range delay to TEC for the primary GPS signal is 0.162 m per TECU. The diurnal variation in TEC shows a minimum to maximum variation of about 5 to 50 TECU (in current low sunspot activity periods). These TEC values correspond to range delay variations of about 1 to 9 m at Surat. These variations in the range delay will certainly increase in high sunspot activity periods. Detected TEC variations are also closely related to space weather characterizing quantities such as solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices.     

Dissipation of diamagnetic currents and plasma heating in coronal magnetic loops

SOHO and TRACE data have shown that the coronal plasma is heated most actively near sunspots, in magnetic loops that issue from the penumbral region. The source of heating is nonuniform in height, and its power is maximum near the footpoints of the magnetic loops. The heating process is typically accompanied by the injection of dense chromospheric plasma into the coronal parts of the magnetic loops. It is important that the radiative losses cannot be compensated for via electron thermal conduction in the loops, which have temperatures of 1.0–1.5 MK; therefore, some heating source must operate throughout the entire length of the loop, balancing radiative losses and maintaining a quasi-steady state of the loop over at least several hours. As observations show, the plasma density inside the loops exceeds the density of the ambient plasma by more than an order of magnitude. It is supposed that the enhanced plasma density inside the loops results from the development of the ballooning mode of a flute-type instability in the sunspot penumbra, where the plasma of the inner sunspot region, with β _i ? 1, comes into contact with the dense chromospheric plasma, which has β _e ? β _i (β is the gas-to-magnetic pressure ratio). As the chromospheric plasma penetrates into the potential field of the sunspot, the generated diamagnetic currents balance the excess gas pressure. These currents efficiently decay due to the Cowling conductivity. Even if neutrals are few in number in the plasma (accounting for less than 10^?5 of the total mass density), this conductivity ensures a heating rate that exceeds the rate of the normal Joule dissipation of diamagnetic currents by 7–8 orders of magnitude. Helium is an important factor in the context of plasma heating in magnetic loops. Its relatively high ionization potential, while not forbidding dielectronic recombination, ensures a sufficiently high number of neutrals in the coronal plasma and maintains a high heating rate due to the Cowling conductivity, even at coronal temperatures. The heating results from the “burning-out” of the nonpotential component of the magnetic field of the coronal magnetic loops. This mechanism provides the necessary heating rate for the plasma inside the loops if the loops are thin enough (with thickness of the order of 10⁵–10⁶ cm). This may imply that the observed (1–5) × 10⁸-cm-thick loops consist of numerous hot, thin threads. For magnetic loops in hydrostatic equilibrium, the calculated heating function exponentially decreases with height on characteristic scales a factor of 1.8 smaller than the total-pressure scale height, since the scale heights for the total pressure and for the ⁴He partial pressure are different. The heating rate is proportional to the square of the plasma pressure in the loop, in agreement with observational data.

     

The latitude distributions of sunspots and its North-South asymmetry

The temporal variations observed in the monthly mean latitudes of sunspot groups are studied over 1874–2010 using the data of the Greenwich Catalog and its NOAA-USEF extension. The 11-year cycle is quite clear in the temporal variations of the monthly mean latitudes of sunspot groups (i.e., of the centers of spotting) in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The North-South (N-S) asymmetry in the latitudes of sunspot groups defined as the difference between the absolute values of sunspot latitudes observed in the N and S hemispheres is compared with the N-S asymmetry in the total area of sunspot groups determined on the scales of 11 years and longer. The N-S asymmetry is interpreted as an imbalance in the hemispheres’ powers (asymmetry in the total area of sunspot groups) and as spatial imbalance (asymmetry in the latitudes of the centers of spotting). This imbalance is most clearly seen at the solar minima, i.e., in the gradual transition from one cycle to the other, when the absolute values of the asymmetries observed both in the total sunspot area and in the sunspot latitudes reach their maxima. The results obtained here can be helpful for analyses of the solar dynamo.     

Worldwide features of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity

Variation of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity, which occurs just before a sunspot minimum, with local time is studied for a network of observatories covering different latitude and longitude zones. For this purpose, hourly averages of horizontal intensity(H) for each UT hour for 173 days, which are totally free of disturbances due to solar transients, have been subjected to spectral analysis. Well-defined spectral peaks associated with periodicities of 28, 14 and 9 days were present in almost all the spectra. The pattern of daily variation of the strength of the 27-day signal changes from a diurnal one at low latitudes to a semi-diurnal one near the Sq focus and in this region, the 14-day signal appears to have an independent origin irrespective of the longitude zone. A study of 27-day oscillation in mean dailyH field also indicates that apart from ring current modulation, both Sq and electrojet fields also undergo 27-day oscillations during the declining phase of a solar cycle possibly through the ionospheric wind system.     

Solar 3.04 cm hydrogen line emission revealed in observations of the active region NOAA 10105

RATAN-600 observations of a microwave source located above the active region NOAA 10105 obtained on September 7–20, 2002 with a frequency resolution of ～10% have revealed a spectral feature near 3.04 cm that can be interpreted as a neutral hydrogen line. This feature was observed September 11, 2002, in both absorption and emission, and was detected in the spectra of various portions of the source (sunspot, flocculus, and background). The maximum line depth of (35 ± 5)% of the source brightness was observed at the start of the observations (9.2^h UT) in the flocculus in absorption. The line intensity decreased rapidly with time, becoming less than the measurement errors by 9.7^h UT. It is most likely that the 3.04 cm emission is related to a 2B chromospheric flare (M2.2 X-ray burst) observed at ～7.5^h UT in the floccular field, near the main sunspot of NOAA 10105. In this case, the total duration of the event was about two hours. These observations are consistent with earlier statistical studies, and refines these based on data with higher spatial resolution. Recommendations for further observational studies of the solar 3.04-cm hydrogen line are presented; requirements for theories of the 3.04 cm line taking into account nonequilibrium states of the active-region plasma are indicated.     

浅埋隧道围岩应力场的计算复变函数求解法

对于受地表边界和地面荷载影响的浅埋隧道的围岩应力场,由于在数学处理上存在一定的困难,很难用解析解来进行分析,而通常采用边界元或有限元的数值方法来解答。为了求解浅埋隧道的应力场,采用边界配点来确定边界条件,同时用保角映射将一个含圆孔的半无限空间区域映射为圆环域,然后把这个区域内的解析函数展开成Laurent级数的形式,利用Muskhelishvili的复变函数理论和最小二乘法来确定解析函数的各项系数,从而求得浅埋隧道围岩压力的半数值、半解析解,最后通过算例给出了围岩应力的分布情况。计算结果表明,该方法计算精度高、计算量小,具有应用价值。     

Sunspot cycle prediction using multivariate regression and binary mixture of Laplace distribution model

Prediction of sunspot cycle is a vital activity in space mission planning and various engineering decision making. In the present study, the sunspot cycle prediction has been carried out by a hybrid model which employs multivariate regression technique and the binary mixture of Laplace distribution (BMLD) function. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is being applied to the multivariate regression analysis to obtain a robust prediction of the sunspot cycle. Sunspot cycle 24 has been predicted using this technique. Multivariate regression model has been derived based on the available cycles 1 to 23. This model could predict cycle 24 as an average of previous cycles. Prediction from this model has been refined to capture the cycle characteristics such as bimodal peak at the high solar activity period by incorporating a predicted peak sunspot number from the BMLD model. This revised prediction has shown more accuracy in forecasting the major discrete features of sunspot cycle like maximum amplitude, the Gnevyshev gap, time duration from peak to peak amplitude, and the epoch of peak amplitude. This refined prediction shows that cycle 24 will be having a peak amplitude of 78 with an uncertainty of ±25. Moreover, the present forecast says that, cycle 24 will be having double peak with a strong second peak compared to the first peak. This hypothesis is found to be true with the realized data of cycle 24. Further, this techniques have been validated by predicting sunspot cycles 22 and 23. A preliminary level prediction of sunspot cycle 25 also been carried out using the technique presented here. Present study predicts that, cycle 25 also will be a modest cycle like the present cycle 24, and the peak amplitude may vary in a band of 75–95.     

罗湖断裂带地应力场数值模拟分析

根据深圳地区地应力的实测资料,通过最优化算法,模拟整个深圳区域的地应力场.将计算结果作为罗湖地区计算区域位移的边界条件,进一步模拟罗湖断裂带的区域地应力场,研究了罗湖断裂带所在区域的地应力场大小、方向、变化规律和断层活动特征,为该区域主要建筑物的地面变形稳定性评价提供参考.     

The probability distributions and fractal dimension of sunspot cycles associated with ENSO phenomena

Various methods have been used to secure the certainty of significant relations among the sunspot cycles and some of the terrestrial climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall, and ENSO. This study investigates the behavior of ENSO cycles and mean monthly sunspot cycles. Sunspot cycles range from 1755 to 2016 whereas, ENSO cycles range from 1866 to 2012. In this regard, the appropriateness of distributions is investigated with the help of Kolmogorov-Smirnov D, Anderson-Darling, and chi-square tests. It is found that most of the sunspot cycle follows generalized Pareto distribution whereas, generalized extreme value distribution was found appropriate for ENSO cycles. Probability distribution is used to analyze the behavior of each sunspot cycle and ENSO cycle separately. Probability distribution indicates the tail behavior of each cycle; tail explored correlation cycles. Furthermore, self-similar and self-affine fractal dimension methods are used to compute Hurst exponents to determine the persistency of the available data. Fractal dimension has an ability to study the complexity involved in sunspot and ENSO cycles. The fractal dimension and Hurst exponent describe persistency (smoothness) and complexity of data. Hurst exponent measures long-term behavior of time series, making it more helpful for forecasting. This is the measure of regularity or irregularity (chaos) of the time function in the form of their persistency or anti-persistency, respectively. Hurst exponents are computed using rescaled range analysis method and box counting methods. Both these methods are suitable for long-term forecasting. The results of this study confirm that during the period 1980–2000, ENSO cycles were very active. Simultaneously, ENSO was active for the periods 1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1993, 1994–1995, and 1997–1998; these periods include two strongest periods of the century viz., 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. Sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles both were found to be persistent. Self-similar fractal dimensions exhibited a better persistency and a better correlation as compared to self-affine fractal dimension. This research is a part of a larger research project investigating the correlation of sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles, and the influence of ENSO cycles on variations of the local climatic parameters which in turn depends on solar activity changes.     

Possible solar control on primary production along the Indian west coast on decadal to centennial timescale

Using multiple geochemical proxies including specific biomarkers (dinosterol, phytol, stigmasterol and β‐sitosterol) measured in a high‐sedimentation rate core collected from the inner shelf (depth ～45 m) off Goa (India), we reconstruct surface productivity, which is mainly controlled by the monsoon upwelling in this region, during the last ca. 700 a. Surface productivity appears to have varied in tandem with the Konkan–Goa rainfall and sunspot activity during the instrumental period (last 250 a). The productivity proxies also covary with the total solar irradiance reconstructed for the period beyond the instrumental era, within the considerable uncertainty of the age model. This suggests that solar forcing may control coastal upwelling intensity and biological productivity in the eastern Arabian Sea on decadal to centennial timescales. During the late Anthropocene (last ca. 50 a), steep increases in all four biomarkers indicate greatly enhanced productivity in response to high solar irradiance as well as anthropogenic inputs of nutrients. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of Response Spectra in the Severely Damaged Area During the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nambu Earthquake

We calculated theoretical acceleration response spectra at the ground surface in the region near the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake source based on the spectral moment method. To estimate earthquake motion on the ground surface, a formula of earthquake motion at base rock level was derived. The amplification effect of the ground was introduced by using multiple reflection theory. Theoretically estimated response spectrum were modified by the response spectra calculated using observed earthquake motions.