Mid‐ and late Holocene tree population density changes in northern Fennoscandia derived by a new method using megafossil pines and their tree‐ring series

Changes in tree density are estimated for the northern forest‐limit region of Finnish Lapland over the past seven and a half millennia. This is done using dendrochronologically dated Scots pine megafossils and their tree‐ring series. Direct and indirect estimates of past tree density are derived from chronology sample size (CSS) and growth trend modelling (GTM) respectively. The latter is a new method, where the past levels of growth competition (the influence of nearby trees) are extracted from the behaviour of growth trends in cross‐dated tree‐ring series, trends that are expected to be driven by tree‐density control. Two records constructed from the same original data set but by different means (independently) correlate significantly. Both records show a tree‐density maximum around 3000–1750 BC , indicating relative warmth during that time. Another positive tree‐density anomaly occurred in accordance with the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, preceding the thinning at the forest‐limit due to the ‘Little Ice Age’. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oceanographic variations over the last 150,000 yr in the Japan Sea and synchronous Holocene with the Northern Hemisphere

The paleo-hydrography in the Japan Sea called a “mini-Ocean” was reconstructed based on the high-resolution analysis of diatom assemblages over the period of 150,000 yr. The decrease of diatom fertilization in the Japan Sea, when it was isolated from surrounding seas due to the drop of sea-level during the glacial to stadial phase, resulted in dissolution and/or extremely low diatom production in the northern cores in the subarctic water-masses. The annual Td′-derived paleo-SSTs (°C) were controlled by the fluctuations of 2-kyr and 4-kyr periods at intervals of 20 kyr and 40 kyr over the last 160 kyr BP, respectively. A 23-kyr cycle is recognized during the periods from 140 ka to 100 ka, according to the Wavelet analysis. After temperature and sea-level increased both at 133–128 ka, 60–53 ka and 15–10 ka, oceanic warm-water diatom species predominated at 127–119 ka and after 9 cal ka in the interstadial phase. At 21.3–16.9 ka and 12.9–9.8 ka, sea-level and salinity increased as the transgression developed. At 10.0–7.0 ka, the oceanic association shifted from cold-water species in the stadial period to warm-water ones in the interstadial phase. The fluctuations of Td′ derived-SSTs (°C) on century to millennial time-scales during the Holocene are well correlated with abrupt climatic events that different paleoclimatic proxies record in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere.     

Long‐term summer (AD751–2008) temperature fluctuation in the French Alps based on tree‐ring data

Corona, C., Edouard, J.‐L., Guibal, F., Guiot, J., Bernard, S., Thomas, A. & Denelle, N. 2010: Long‐term summer (AD751–2008) temperature fluctuation in the French Alps based on tree‐ring data. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00185.x. ISSN 0300‐9843. On the basis of a dense tree‐ring width network (34 unpublished multi‐centennial larch chronologies), this paper attempts to reconstruct, for the first time, the summer temperatures in the French Alps (44°–45.30°N, 6.30°–7.45°E) during the last millennium. The adaptative Regional Growth Curve standardization method is applied to preserve interannual to multi‐centennial variations in this high‐elevation proxy data set. The proxies are calibrated using the June to August mean temperatures from the last revised version of the HISTALP database spanning the period AD1760–2003 and adjusted to take into account the warm bias before 1850. About 45% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. Despite the use of the newly updated meteorological data set, the reconstruction still shows colder temperatures than early instrumental measurements between 1760 and 1840. The proxy record evidences a prolonged Medieval Warm Period persisting until 1500, with warm periods that resemble 20th century conditions but also cold phases before 1000 synchronous with Swiss glacier advances. The Little Ice Age is rather mild until 1660 if compared with other Alpine reconstructions. Thereafter, summers are 0.7 °C cooler than the 1961–1990 mean until 1920. The maximum temperature amplitude over the past 1250 years is estimated to be 3 °C between the warmest (810s, 1990s) and coldest (1810s) decades. Most of the 20th century is comparable with the Medieval Warm Period.     

过去千年北半球中高纬夏季温度多年代际变化的归因分析

在过去千年背景下评估自然和人为因素对北半球温度的影响程度,有助于辨识不同特征时期（如：中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期）北半球温度的演变机制,对预测未来气候变化有重要参考意义。文章基于多元回归模型尝试量化了过去千年（870~1992年）自然因素（火山活动、太阳活动、地球轨道参数变化）、人为因素（温室气体浓度、大气气溶胶浓度、土地利用变化）、内部变率（北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度在多年代际上的内部变率部分,分别简称为AMO和PMO）对北半球中高纬度地区（30°~70°N）夏季温度的贡献。结果表明：在多年代际（>30年）时间尺度上,这些因子可以解释约73%的北半球夏季温度变化方差。在中世纪气候异常期（Medieval Climate Anomaly,简称MCA;900~1100年）,AMO和PMO等内部变率可能对北半球温度变化起了重要作用;在小冰期（Little Ice Age,简称LIA;1450~1850年）,火山活动是北半球夏季温度最重要的驱动因素;1851年以来,人类活动的贡献最大,接近50%,其对这一时期温度增暖的变化起了主导作用,而同期AMO贡献近三分之一的北半球温度多年代际变率。

     

Holocene seasonal sea‐surface temperature variations in the southern Adriatic Sea inferred from a multiproxy approach

Holocene cooling events have been reconstructed for the southern Adriatic Sea (central Mediterranean) by means of analyses of organic walled dinoflagellate cysts, planktonic foraminifera, oxygen isotopes, calcareous nanoplankton, alkenones and pollen from a sediment core. Two cooling events have been detected, during which sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) were ca. 2°C lower. Unravelling the SST signal into dominant seasonal components suggests maximum winter cooling of 2°C at around 6.0 ka, whereas the cooling at ca. 3.0 ka might be the result of a spring temperature cooling of 2–3°C. The events, lasting several hundred years, are apparently synchronous with those in the Aegean Sea, where they have been related to known cooling events from the Greenland ice‐core record. A distinct interruption in Adriatic Sea sapropel S1 is not clearly accompanied by a local drop in winter temperatures, but seems to be forced by ventilation, which probably occurred earlier in the Aegean Sea and was subsequently transmitted to the Adriatic Sea. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全新世暖期鼎盛期与未来变暖情景下东亚夏季降水和气温变化对比

利用通用气候系统模式（Community Climate System Model,简称CCSM）全新世和21世纪气候模拟试验数据,对比分析了全新世暖期鼎盛期和RCP4.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5,简称RCP4.5）未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季地表气温和降水的空间分布特征,并探讨了两个暖期夏季气候变化的成因机制。结果表明：1）全新世东亚地区最暖的夏季出现在9 ka B.P.前后,这与地球轨道参数有关;2）RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下21世纪整个东亚地区的夏季平均地表气温均呈上升趋势,而在全新世暖期鼎盛期东亚地区的夏季地表气温呈现同心圆状分布;3）全新世暖期鼎盛期和未来变暖情景下东亚地区夏季降水的空间分布有明显差异,前者东亚地区的夏季降水呈现"南负北正"的偶极子分布形态,而后者呈三极子形势;前者东亚夏季降水的变化幅度明显强于后者;4）全新世暖期鼎盛期副高偏强,中国东部偏南气流较强;而在RCP4.5未来变暖情景下副高偏弱。     

过去60年来南极冰盖近地面气温时空变化研究

如何将十分有限的器测资料和再分析资料有机联系起来,充分借助它们各自的优势,分析南极冰盖气温时空变化具有重要意义。以CFSR（the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）、ERA5（the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Fifth-generation Reanalysis）和MERRA-2（the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications,version 2）再分析资料分别作为背景场,利用南极冰盖具有超过50年连续观测的站点气温观测资料,分别重建了1960~2019年冰盖近地面月气温时空数据集,借助于未参与重建的70个站点观测资料进行了验证分析。在此基础上,利用精度最高的重建数据集探讨了冰盖过去60年来气温时空变化特征。精度验证结果表明：基于ERA5重建的月气温数据集精度最高,相关系数为0.70,均方根误差为0.49℃。1960~2019年,南极半岛和西南极冰盖呈现显著增温趋势,而且显著变暖延伸到60°~180°E的东南极内陆大部分区域。全球变暖停滞事件在南极半岛和西南极冰盖发生,且增温减缓程度更明显：1999~2019年间年和春季平均气温均呈明显降低趋势。1960~1998年,整个东南极冰盖气温没有显著变化,但是1999~2019年东南极冰盖内陆较大区域呈现了显著变暖趋势。这些结果有助于增进对不同时间尺度南极冰盖气温变化区域差异性的理解。

     

Variability in temperature and geometry of the Norwegian Current over the past 600 yr; stable isotope and grain size evidence from the Norwegian margin

Core P1‐003MC was retrieved from 851 m water depth on the southern Norwegian continental margin, close to the boundary between the Norwegian Current (NC) and the underlying cold Norwegian Sea Deep Water. The core chronology was established by using ²¹⁰Pb measurements and ¹⁴C dates, suggesting a sampling resolution of between 2 and 9 yr. Sea‐surface temperature (SST) variations in the NC are reconstructed from stable oxygen isotope measurements in two planktonic Foraminifera species, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (d.) and Globigerina bulloides. The high temporal resolution of the SST proxy records allows direct comparison with instrumental ocean temperature measurements from Ocean Weather Ship (OWS) Mike in the Norwegian Sea and an air temperature record from the coastal island Ona, western Norway. The comparison of the instrumental and the proxy SST data suggests that N. pachyderma (d.) calcify during summer, whereas G. bulloides calcify during spring. The δ¹⁸O records of both species suggest that the past 70 yr have been the warmest throughout the past 600 yr. The spring and summer proxy temperature data suggest differences in the duration of the cold period of the Little Ice Age. The spring temperature was 1–3°C colder throughout most of the period between ca. AD 1400 and 1700, and the summer temperature was 1–2°C colder throughout most of the period between ca. AD 1400 and 1920. Fluctuations in the depth of the lower boundary of the NC have been investigated by examining grain size data and benthic foraminiferal assemblages. The data show that the transition depth of the lower boundary of the NC was deeper between ca. AD 1400 and 1650 than after ca. AD 1750 until present. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strong correlation between summer temperature and pollen accumulation rates for Pinus sylvestris,Picea abies and Betula spp. in a high‐resolution record from northern Sweden

Highly resolved pollen spectra analysed from a 47 cm peat monolith recovered from a mire in northern Sweden exhibit climatic sensitivity in the pollen accumulation rates (PAR) of boreal treeline species. Robust temporal control, afforded through multiple AMS radiocarbon dating of the post‐atomic‐bomb‐test period (AD 1961–2002), provides a unique opportunity to compare pollen accumulation rates with the instrumental meteorological record. Strong correlations are observed between summer temperature and PAR for Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Betula spp. (excluding B. nana). Despite well constrained, contiguous (‘annual’) sampling, the temporal resolution of the pollen signal preserved within each sample appears to be degraded to ca. 3–5 year resolution. This is likely to reflect processes occurring during peat accumulation and pollen deposition, as well as dating uncertainties and the effects of subsampling. These findings identify limitations to the maximum resolution that may realistically be recovered from the peat archive using high‐resolution sampling protocols and AMS ¹⁴C dating. We also identify the need for additional work to quantify the role of climate on peat accumulation and the resultant impact on assemblage‐based palaeoenvironmental reconstructions within mire sequences. The strongest climate association observed for Picea abies (r = 0.53; n = 36) was extended through the monolith beyond the 42 year period of ‘annual’ sampling and the response successfully correlated with the Bottenviken historical instrumental record to AD 1860. Although only presenting data from a single site, and requiring wider replication, we conclude that for sites close to the ecological limits of tree species, where levels of anthropogenic/non‐climatic forcing on pollen production are low, well‐dated records of PAR may potentially provide a proxy for reconstructing past summer temperature variability. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two decadally resolved records from north‐west European peat bogs show rapid climate changes associated with solar variability during the mid–late Holocene

Two ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) wiggle‐match dated peat sequences from Denmark and northern England record changes in mire surface wetness reconstructed using plant macrofossil and testate amoebae analyses. A number of significant mid–late Holocene climatic deteriorations (wet shifts) associated with declines in solar activity were recorded (at ca. 2150 cal. yr BC, 740 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 930, cal. yr AD 1020, cal. yr AD 1280–1300, cal. yr AD 1640 and cal. yr AD 1790–1830). The wet shifts identified from ca. cal. yr AD 930 are concurrent with or lag decreases in solar activity by 10–50 years. These changes are replicated by previous records from these and other sites in the region and the new records provide improved precision for the ages of these changes. The rapidly accumulating (up to 2–3 yr cm^?1, ～1310 yr old, 34 ¹⁴C dates) Danish profile offers an unprecedented high‐resolution record of climate change from a peat bog, and has effectively recorded a number of significant but short‐lived climate change events since ca. cal. yr AD 690. The longer time intervals between samples and the greater length of time resolved by each sample in the British site due to slower peat accumulation rates (up to 11 yr cm^?1, ～5250 yr old, 42 ¹⁴C dates) acted as a natural smoothing filter preventing the clear registration of some of the rapid climate change events. Not all the significant rises in water table registered in the peat bog archives of the British and Danish sites have been caused by solar forcing, and may be the result of other processes such as changes in other external forcing factors, the internal variability of the climate system or raised bog ecosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Common temperature signal in four well‐replicated tree growth series from northern Fennoscandia

Four Nordic temperature proxies based on tree growth at the northern timberline – ring‐width from Sweden and Finland, maximum latewood density from Sweden, and height increment from Finland – were compared. Three indexing methods were used to enhance the low (centennial and above), medium (decadal‐to‐multidecadal) and high (decadal‐to‐interannual) frequencies. The proxies are shown to have a strong temperature signal (common variance) at the interannual‐to‐multidecadal scale, while the multidecadal‐to‐centennial trends are less coherent, perhaps reflecting intra‐regional differences in growing conditions but more likely due to the more noisy regional curve standardization method used to retain the longest trends. Various methods of combining the four proxy series were explored and tested by comparison with four long temperature records from northern Fennoscandia. Only relatively high‐frequency, spline‐indexed series produced consistently positive verification statistics as a reconstruction model for summer temperature using all four proxies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lacustrine records of post‐glacial environmental change from the Nulhegan Basin,Vermont, USA

The sedimentary records of Nulhegan Pond and Beecher Pond in the Nulhegan Basin of north‐eastern Vermont were analyzed to yield a history of environmental change since the latest Pleistocene. Shoreline landforms indicate that part of the Nulhegan Basin was inundated by Glacial Lake Nulhegan (GLN), which was impounded behind a dam of glacial sediment. Outwash derived from stagnant ice forms the bottom 176 cm of the Nulhegan Pond core. Fine‐grained inorganic sediment deposited between 13.4 and 12.2k cal a BP is interpreted as a deep‐water facies representing GLN, while coarser sediment from 12.2 to 11.8k cal a BP records draining of the glacial lake. Rapid, simultaneous increases in organic matter and biogenic silica signal the onset of productivity following the Younger Dryas. Beecher Pond formed c. 11.3k cal a BP through surface collapse over a buried ice block; buried stagnant ice may have persisted in the vicinity of the pond into the early Holocene. From 8.9 to 5.5k cal a BP, sediment in both lakes became coarser and richer in aquatic organic matter, suggesting a low‐water phase in which previously deposited lacustrine sediments were reworked and the littoral zone shifted basinward. Low water levels at this time are consistent with other records from Maine and southern Quebec, but contrary to records from ～325 km to the south. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pollen‐ and diatom based environmental history since the Last Glacial Maximum from the Andean core Fúquene‐7, Colombia

The late Pleistocene–Holocene ecological and limnological history of Lake Fúquene (2580 m a.s.l.), in the Colombian Andes, is reconstructed on the basis of diatom, pollen and sediment analyses of the upper 7 m of the core Fúquene‐7. Time control is provided by 11 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C dates ranging from 19 670 ± 240 to 6040 ± 60 yr BP. In this paper we present the evolution of the lake and its surroundings. Glacial times were cold and dry, lake‐levels were low and the area was surrounded by paramo and subparamo vegetation. Late‐glacial conditions were warm and humid. The El Abra Stadial, a Younger Dryas equivalent, is reflected by a gap in the sedimentary record, a consequence of the cessation of deposition owing to a drop in lake‐level. The early Holocene was warm and humid; at this time the lake reached its maximum extension and was surrounded by Andean forest. The onset of the drier climate prevailing today took place in the middle Holocene, a process that is reflected earlier in the diatom and sediment records than in the pollen records. In the late Holocene human activity reduced the forest and transformed the landscape. Climate patterns from the Late‐glacial and throughout the Holocene, as represented in our record, are similar to other records from Colombia and northern South America (the Caribbean, Venezuela and Panama) and suggest that the changes in lake‐level were the result of precipitation variations driven by latitudinal shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 352-year record of summer temperature reconstruction in the western Tianshan Mountains,China, as deduced from tree-ring density

Three robust tree-ring density chronologies were developed for the western Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China. The chronologies were significantly correlated and form a regional chronology (GLD). The GLD had significant and positive correlations with temperature of warm seasons. Based on this relationship, the mean minimum temperatures of May to August were reconstructed using the GLD chronology for the period AD 1657 to 2008. The temperature reconstruction exhibited temperature patterns on interannual to centennial timescales, and showed that the end of the 20th century is the warmest period in the past 352 years. The reconstructed temperature variation has a teleconnection with large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability and captures long- and broad-scale regional climatic variations.     

基于CMIP6模式数据的1961—2100年青藏高原地表气温时空变化分析

基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的22个地球气候/系统模式模拟数据,分析了1961—2100年期间青藏高原年均地表气温在不同情景下的时空变化。结果表明,多模式集合平均的模拟结果优于大多数单个模式。由于共享社会经济路径（SSP）和辐射强迫的不同,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种情景下,2015—2100年间青藏高原年均地表气温的增温趋势分别为0.10 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.29 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.53 ℃·（10a）^-1和0.69 ℃·（10a）^-1,帕米尔高原、藏北高原中西部和巴颜喀拉山区为三个升温中心。相对于1995—2014年参考时段,到本世纪中期（2041—2060年）,青藏高原区域年均地表气温将分别增加1.37 ℃、1.72 ℃、1.98 ℃和2.30 ℃,而到本世纪末期（2081—2100年）,年均地表气温将分别增加1.42 ℃、2.65 ℃、4.28 ℃和5.38 ℃。与《巴黎协定》提出的到本世纪末全球平均气温升高不超过2 ℃目标相比,无论在哪种情景下,到本世纪中期时青藏高原年均地表气温相对于工业革命前均升高超过2 ℃,这会造成极大的气候生态环境问题。     

Seeking a Holocene drift ice proxy: non‐clay mineral variations from the SW to N‐central Iceland shelf: trends,regime shifts,and periodicities

Quantitative X‐ray diffraction analysis of the <2 mm sediment fraction was carried out on 1257 samples (from the seafloor and 16 cores) from the Iceland shelf west of 18° W. All but one core (B997‐347PC) were from transects along troughs on the NW to N‐central shelf, an area that in modern and historic times has been affected by drift ice. The paper focuses on the non‐clay mineralogy of the sediments (excluding calcite and volcanic glass). Quartz and potassium feldspars occupy similar positions in an R‐mode principal component analysis, and oligoclase feldspar tracks quartz; these minerals are used as a proxy for ice‐rafted detritus (IRD). Accordingly, the sum of these largely foreign minerals (Q&K) (to Icelandic bedrock) is used as a proxy for drift ice. A stacked, equi‐spaced 100 a record is developed which shows both low‐frequency trends and higher‐frequency events. The detrended stacked record compares well with the flux of quartz (mg cm^?2 a^?1) at MD99‐2269 off N Iceland. The multi‐taper method indicated that there are three significant frequencies at the 95% confidence level with periods of ca. 2500, 445 and 304 a. Regime shift analysis pinpoints intervals when there was a statistically significant shift in the average Q&K weight %, and identifies four IRD‐rich events separated by intervals with lower inputs. There is some association between peaks of IRD input, less dense surface waters (from δ¹⁸O data on planktonic foraminifera) and intervals of moraine building. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.