华北盆地Lg波衰减及台站场地响应特征

华北盆地是中国大陆地震活跃区之一,通过地震波衰减及场地响应参数研究该区构造介质属性及台基属性对地震预测预报、灾害评估具有重要意义.基于Lg波谱比的联合反演方法是获得地震波衰减参数及场地响应的有效方法,通过随机重采样方法可以检验解的稳定性.使用华北盆地68个台站记录的2004—2008年的149次地震,震级M_L为1.7~5.3的震中距为100~600 km,按信噪比大于2的标准挑选有效垂向记录1 000多条,地震射线较好地覆盖了华北盆地38°N~41°N、114°E~120°E区域.采用2.60~3.65 km/s的速度窗截取Lg波形并转化为频谱,研究频率范围为1~7 Hz,频率间隔0.2 Hz.计算得到的地震波衰减品质因子Q(f)与频率f的关系可表示为Q(f)=125±4.4f0.86±0.03,研究区为低Q₀(对应频率1 Hz),高频率依赖性的构造活跃区.基岩台站对地震波没有表现出明显放大作用,黄土沉积台站低频端比高频端明显放大;场地响应波动较大台站其解的标准偏差也大,说明场地响应的不稳定性体现了台基属性的非稳定性特征.      

Dangerous ice phenomena on the lowland rivers of European Russia

The site amplification functions at 48 sites of NCR have been estimated in this study using the waveforms of locally recorded 23 earthquakes. Due to the absence of a suitable reference site in the region, the widely used horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique has been used for this purpose. The maps showing the spatial distribution of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of the different-storey buildings have been presented. The predominant frequencies in general are found to be in the range 2.5–7.5 Hz with an average of 4.4 Hz for the region having older alluvium sediments and in the range 1.1–6.4 Hz with an average of 3.3 Hz for the region with the younger alluvium deposits. The average value of the site amplifications for the frequency band 3.0–10.0 Hz is in the range 2.0–5.3 for the sites with significant soil cover, while the spectral amplification corresponding to the predominant frequency varies from 2.5 to 7.5 at most of the sites. The spectral amplification level lies in the range 2.0–3.0 for the sites with less or no sediment cover. The spectral amplification levels presented for the different-storey buildings may be used for the mitigation of seismic hazard in the region. The estimated site amplification functions may be used in the simulation of the site-specific strong ground motions and therefore useful for the evaluation of seismic hazard of a region.     

Quantitative modelling of seismic site amplification in an earthquake-endangered capital city: Bucharest,Romania

Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, with more than 2 million inhabitants, is considered as a natural disaster hotspot by a recent global study of the World Bank and the Columbia University (Dilley M et al. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University, Washington, DC in 2005). Therefore, it is classified as the second metropolis in Europe, after Istanbul, subjected to important losses in the case of a destructive Vrancea earthquake with moment magnitude greater than seven. Four major earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 6.9 and 7.7 hit Bucharest in the last 68 years. The most recent destructive earthquake on March 4, 1977, with a moment magnitude of 7.4, caused about 1,500 casualties in the capital alone. All disastrous intermediate-depth earthquakes are generated within a small epicentral area—the Vrancea seismogenic region—about 150 km northeast of Bucharest. Thick unconsolidated sedimentary layers below Bucharest amplify the arriving seismic waves causing severe destruction. Ten 50-m-deep boreholes are drilled in the metropolitan area of Bucharest in order to obtain a unique, homogeneous dataset of seismic, soil-mechanic and elasto-dynamic parameters. Cores for dynamic tests were extracted, and vertical seismic profiles were performed to obtain an updated site amplification model related to earthquakes waves. The boreholes are placed near former or existing seismic station sites to allow a direct comparison and calibration of the borehole data with previous seismological measurements. A database containing geological characteristics for each sedimentary layer, geotechnical parameters measured on rock samples, P- and S wave velocity and density for each sedimentary layer is set up, as a result of previous papers with this subject. Direct data obtained by the geophysical methods in the new boreholes drilled in Bucharest City, as well as from laboratory measurements, are used as input data in the program SHAKE2000. Results are obtained in the form of spectral acceleration response, and peak acceleration in depth is computed for every site in which in situ measurements were performed. The acceleration response spectra correspond to the shear-wave amplifications due to the models of sedimentary layers down to (a) 50 m depth; (b) 70 m depth; and (c) 100 m depth. A comparison of the acceleration response spectra obtained by modelling at surface with a real signal recorded at surface is obtained in three sites, as test sites for the three depths considered, in order to calibrate the results obtained by equivalent linear method of the seismic site response.     

Seismic microzonation study in Doon valley, northwest Himalaya, India

Fundamental frequency map of site amplification at different sites in Doon valley, Uttarakhand, India is prepared from microtremor (ground ambient noise) using Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) technique. The fan deposited alluvium filled synclinal valley of Doon lies between Main Boundary Thrust (MFT) and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) in the Himalayan active seismic belt and experienced many earthquakes in the past. The HVSR at different sites in the Doon valley ranges between the predominant frequencies 0.13 and 12.77 Hz. The HVSR in lower frequencies indicates that the site has either thick sediment covers or less compact rocks with fractures. Based on information on fundamental frequency and soft soil thickness, site classification map is generated. Results indicate that degree of compactness of rock types and presences of sediments vary significantly, which may play a major role in seismic hazard. The use of microtremor, therefore, constitutes an effective and inexpensive approach to site response and soft soil thickness estimation for preliminary microzonation.     

Soft sediments and damage pattern: a few case studies from large Indian earthquakes vis-a-vis seismic risk evaluation

India is prone to earthquake hazard; almost 65 % area falls in high to very high seismic zones, as per the seismic zoning map of the country. The Himalaya and the Indo-Gangetic plains are particularly vulnerable to high seismic hazard. Any major earthquake in Himalaya can cause severe destruction and multiple fatalities in urban centers located in the vicinity. Seismically induced ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction are the two main factors responsible for severe damage to the structures, especially, built on soft sedimentary environment. These are essentially governed by the size of earthquake, epicentral distance and geology of the area. Besides, lithology of the strata, i.e., sediment type, grain size and their distribution, thickness, lateral discontinuity and ground water depth, play an important role in determining the nature and degree of destruction. There has been significant advancement in our understanding and assessment of these two phenomena. However, data from past earthquakes provide valuable information which help in better estimation of ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction for evaluation of seismic risk in future and planning the mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present the case studies of past three large Indian earthquakes, i.e., 1803 Uttaranchal earthquake (Mw 7.5); 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.1) and 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) and discuss the role of soft sediments particularly, alluvial deposits in relation to the damage pattern due to amplified ground motions and soil liquefaction induced by the events. The results presented in the paper are mainly focused around the sites located on the river banks and experienced major destruction during these events. It is observed that the soft sedimentary sites located even far from earthquake epicenter, with low water saturation, experienced high ground motion amplification; while the sites with high saturation level have undergone soil liquefaction. We also discuss the need of intensifying studies related to ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction in India as these are the important inputs for detailed seismic hazard estimation.     

Effects of shallow and deep geology on seismic hazard estimates: a case study of pseudo-acceleration response spectra for the northwestern Balkans

Northwestern Balkans represents one of the rare regions where data on both the shallow geology (i.e., local soil conditions) and the deep geology exist for stations that recorded hundreds of strong motion records. The strong motion database used in this study consists of 203 strong motion accelerograms (each with three orthogonal translational components), recorded in former Yugoslavia in the period 1976–1983, from 108 contributing earthquakes. In this paper, the results of a series of regression analyses are presented where empirical equations for scaling pseudo-acceleration response spectra were developed on the basis of 5 subsets of data and using three prediction models. Results of the regression analyses show that for ground motion in the horizontal direction, both the shallow and deep geology site conditions have to be taken into account or else the spectral estimates might be considerably biased. Results show that the shallow geology influences spectral amplitudes the most in the short period range and has much lesser effects for larger periods, while the influence of the deep geology is expressed in a wider range of intermediate to long periods. Results also show that if the prediction model that considers solely the shallow geology effects is used, the spectral peaks that have been related to the deep geology effects will completely vanish for larger source-to-site distances, while in the case when solely the deep geology is considered, the peaks related to the shallow geology will not be visible for any distance. As for the amplitudes in the vertical direction, although both the shallow and the deep geology effects are less expressed than in the horizontal one, they still cannot be neglected—the deep geology effects are visible for a wider range of vibration periods, while the shallow geology has some effects only for periods smaller than ~0.3 s.     

Site response studies in Mumbai using (H/V) Nakamura technique

The importance of characterizing the site effects in urban areas, especially Mumbai, the commercial capital of India, with a quarter of land below sea level, is well realized. Mumbai is built on a cluster of seven basaltic islands that were merged together through reclamation of land from the Arabian Sea. Due to rapid urbanization, the demarcation between reclaimed areas and original islands is blurred. A pilot study is undertaken to investigate and characterize the local site effects at 27 locations in Mumbai. The Nakamura technique is used to estimate the fundamental frequency of soft soils at each site, characterized by the ratio (H/V) of the Fourier spectra of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient noise measurements made with a 3-component short period (1 Hz) seismograph. Validation of peak frequency was done using both pre-event and event data. The peak amplification was also validated through measurements at a 10-m exposed soil section and over a soil dump. Overall, the site responses correlate well with the local geology and the lithologs obtained at 40 boreholes at 8 locations The reclaimed areas are characterized by resonance frequencies ranging from 3.3 to 4.6 Hz with significant peak amplification (>4) in contrast to hard rock sites that do not exhibit peak amplification. The hard rock sites with soil cover exhibit peak amplification in the frequency range 3.3–10.5 Hz indicating large variations in soil thickness. The H/V curves at most sites exhibit clear single peaks with large amplitude, which could be associated with sharp discontinuities corresponding to a uni-model of a single layer with large velocity contrast overlying the basement. The low resonance frequencies together with large amplification of site responses enable identifying and demarcating reclaimed areas that form important inputs in the seismic microzonation of Mumbai.     

Microtremor study for evaluating the site response characteristics in the Surat City of western India

The Surat City, which is the second most populated city in the state of Gujarat in western India, warrants site-specific seismic hazard assessment due to its rapid urbanization and proximity to major seismogenic zones. This study reports results of microtremor investigations at 72 single stations and 4 arrays in an area of 325 km² spanning the city. The resonant frequencies, associated peak amplification values and liquefaction vulnerability indices were deduced from the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Ground amplification (A_HVSR) in the range of 3.0–5.0 was observed in the 2.0–4.0-Hz frequency band at most of the sites. A secondary A_HVSR between 2.0 and 3.0 is also observed in the 6.0–7.0-Hz frequency band at a few sites. Locales that are most susceptible to liquefaction are identified based on their vulnerability index (K _g) exceeding the value of 10. The shear wave velocities (V _s) ≥ 500 m/s inferred from array measurements occur at 38 m depth in the western part and ~16 m depth in the eastern part of city. The response spectra estimated from strong motion data recorded at an accelerograph site in Surat from three earthquakes of M _w ≥ 3.2 that occurred in Kachchh, Saurashtra and Narmada regions are in accordance with our inferences of characteristic site frequencies and amplification. Our results, in agreement with the damage scenario during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, provide valuable inputs for site-specific seismic hazard evaluation of the Surat City.     

Assessment of predominant frequencies using ambient vibration in the Kachchh region of western India: implications for earthquake hazards

The Kachchh region is the second most seismically active region in India after the Himalaya. One of the disastrous Indian earthquakes of the millennium was the Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001, which caused about 14,000 casualties and huge property damage. The main reason for such devastation is due to lack of earthquake awareness and poor construction practices. Hence, an increase in the knowledge and awareness, based on improved seismic hazard assessment, is required to mitigate damage due to an earthquake. Natural predominant ground frequencies have been investigated in the Kachchh region of western India using ambient vibrations. The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique has been applied to estimate the predominant frequency at 126 sites. The ambient vibration measurements were conducted for about 1 h at each site in the continuous mode recording at 100 samples/s. We have validated the estimated predominant frequency with earthquake data recorded at six broadband stations in the region. It has been observed that geological time period has a significant effect on predominant frequency of the ground. The estimated predominant frequencies vary from 0.24 to 2.25 Hz for the Quaternary, 0.41–2.34 Hz for the Tertiary, 0.32–4.91 Hz for the Cretaceous, and 0.39–8.0 Hz for the Jurassic/Mesozoic. In the Deccan trap, it varies from 1.30 to 3.80 Hz. We found distinct variation of predominant frequencies of sites associated with hard rock and soft soil. The predominant frequencies were related to the thickness of the sediments, which are deduced by other geophysical and geological methods in the region. Our results suggest that frequencies of the region reveals the site characteristics that can be considered for studying the seismic risks to evolve a plan for disaster risk mitigation for the region.     

Site amplification at Avcılar, Istanbul

Avcılar is the suburb of Istanbul that was most heavily damaged during the August 17, 1999 M_w 7.4 Izmit earthquake. Strong ground motion caused fatalities and damage in Avcılar despite being 90 km from the epicenter. We deployed five portable seismograph stations equipped with Reftek 24-bit recorders and L4C-3D seismometers for 2 months, in order to understand why the local site response was different from elsewhere in Istanbul. A reference station was placed on a hard rock site, and the remaining four stations were placed on other geological units, in areas that had experienced varying levels of damage. We calculated frequency-dependent ground amplification curves by taking the ratios of the spectra at soft and hard rock sites. We obtained similar site response curves for most earthquakes at each site in the frequency range of 0.3–1.6 Hz, and observed no significant site amplification beyond 2.0 Hz at any site. The overall characteristics of the recorded S-waveforms and our modeling of the calculated site amplification curves are consistent with amplification as a result of trapping of seismic energy within a 100–150 m thick, low-velocity subsurface layer. We also review the applicability of microtremor measurements to estimate local site effects at Avcılar. For these data, we used ratios of spectra of horizontal to vertical components to obtain each site response. These results are compared with standard spectral ratios. These microtremor measurements provide consistent estimates of the amplification at most sites at the higher end of the frequency band, namely above 1 Hz. The results from both methods indeed agree well in this part of the frequency band. However, the microtremor method fails to detect amplification at lower frequencies, namely <1.0 Hz.     

地震震源与灾害评估分析:中国四川2008年5月12日Ms 8.0汶川地震

汶川5月12日8.0级地震在构造上起因于印度板块与欧亚板块以每年约5 cm的速度聚敛,并因此而引起青藏高原的地壳物质向四川盆地及中国东南大陆运移.主震震源及余震活动集中于以龙门山为中轴的一条长约350 km、宽约100 km的地震活动带.震源深度一般分布丁地壳脆性-韧性转换边界以上约10～20 km区间的地壳震源层之中,属浅源构造地震.主要震源机制与龙门山构造运动方式密切相关,以其地壳厚度向西急剧加厚、重力梯度带、高波速比(Vp/Vs～2.2)等深部异常及逆冲断层兼具走滑性质的地质构造为特征.在震源辐射、路径传播和场地效应研究的基础上,分别计算并比较了岩石和土壤条件下的地震响应谱,特别强调了土壤条件下的场地放大效应;同时对与地震安全性有关的一些问题如地质灾害、地震频谱设计、地震早期预警系统及中、长期至短期地震预报等进行了探讨;特别提供了一个由加权平均计算、以岩石条件下震波衰减模式为基础的地震频谱设计参考实例.地震构造与动力学研究可融人工程地质与环境工程等学科发展.经历汶川地震考验的一些新近设计和建设的工程项目可为今后改进工程建筑规范与标准提供重要而有益的参考.地震预报是当今一大难题,但需探索研究,不可懈怠.地震减灾与预防足目前比较切合实际的安全举措.     

A study of the seismic response of the city of Benevento (Southern Italy) through a combined analysis of seismological and geological data

A previous analysis [Improta, L., G. Di Giulio, and A. Rovelli (2005). Variations of local seismic response in Benevento (Southern Italy) using earthquakes and ambient noise recordings, J. Seism. 9, 191–210.] of small magnitude earthquakes recorded at 12 sites within the city of Benevento has stressed the significant role played by near-surface geology in causing variability of the ground motion. In this paper, we extend the study of the seismic response from 12 sites to the entire urban area. Based on inferences from the comparison at the 12 sites between earthquake and ambient vibration results, we have collected ambient noise at about 100 sites within the city, intensifying measurements across the main shallow geological variations. We use borehole data to interpret ambient noise H/V spectral ratios in terms of near-surface geology comparing H/V curves to theoretical transfer functions of 1D models along five well-constrained profiles.

On the basis of geological, geotechnical, and seismic data, we identify three main typologies of seismic response in the city. Each type of response is associated to zones sharing common soil conditions and similar soil classes according to building codes for seismic design. Moreover, we find that the spatial variation of the seismic response in the ancient town area is consistent with the damage pattern produced by a very destructive, well-documented historical earthquake that struck the city in 1688, causing MCS intensity of IX–X in Benevento.

Finally, we use ground motions recorded during the experiment by Improta et al. [Improta, L., G. Di Giulio, and A. Rovelli (2005). Variations of local seismic response in Benevento (Southern Italy) using earthquakes and ambient noise recordings, J. Seism. 9, 191–210.] to generate synthetic seismograms of moderate to strong (Mw 5.7, Molise 2002 and Ms 6.9, 1980 Irpinia) earthquakes. We calibrate the random summation technique by Ordaz et al. [Ordaz, M., J. Arboleda, and S.K. Singh (1995). A scheme of random summation of an Empirical Green's Function to estimate ground motions for future large earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 85, 1635–1647.] using recordings of these earthquakes available in Benevento. After a satisfactory fit between observed and synthetic seismograms, we compute response spectra at different sites and speculate on effects of the geology class at large level of shaking, including soil nonlinearity. We find that large discrepancies from design spectra prescribed by seismic codes can occur for a wide sector of Benevento, especially for periods < 0.5 s.     

Soil responses near Delhi ridge and adjacent regions in Greater Delhi during incidence of a local earthquake

In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M _L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.     

Use of site amplification and anelastic attenuation for the determination of source parameters of the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011, using far-field strong-motion data

An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 (M _w) occurred in the Sikkim region of India on September 18, 2011. This earthquake is recorded on strong-motion network in Uttarakhand Himalaya located about 900 km away from the epicenter of this earthquake. In this paper acceleration record from six far-field stations has been used to compute the source parameters of this earthquake. The acceleration spectra of ground motion at these far-field stations are strongly affected by both local site effects and near-site anelastic attenuation. In the present work the spectrum of S-phase recorded at these far-field stations has been corrected for anelastic attenuation at both source and site and the site amplification terms. Site amplifications at different stations and near-site shear wave attenuation factor have been computed by the technique of inversion of acceleration spectra given by Joshi et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 169:1821–1845, 2012a). For estimation of site amplification and shear wave quality factor [Q _β (f)] at the recording sites, ten local events recorded at various stations between July 2011 and December 2011 have been used. The obtained source spectrum from acceleration records is compared with the theoretical source spectrum defined by Brune (J Geophys Res 76:5002, 1970) at each station for both horizontal components of the records. Iterative forward modeling of theoretical source spectrum gives the average estimate of seismic moment (M _o), source radius (r _o) and stress drop (Δσ) as (3.2 ± 0.8) × 10²⁶ dyne cm, 13.3 ± 0.8 km and 59.2 ± 8.8 bars, respectively, for the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011.     

Rock slope response to strong earthquake shaking

The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes triggered many mass movements in the Port Hills including rockfalls, debris avalanches, slides and slumps, and associated cliff-top cracking. The most abundant mass movements with the highest risk to people and buildings were rockfalls and debris avalanches sourced from up to 100 m high cliffs inclined at angles >65°. Cliffs lower than 10 m in height generally remained stable during the strong shaking, with only isolated release of a few individual boulders. We used site-specific data to investigate the factors that controlled the response of the cliffs to the main earthquakes of the Canterbury sequence, adopting two-dimensional finite element seismic site response and stability modeling that was calibrated using the field observations and measurements. Observations from the assessed cliffs in response to the earthquakes show the taller cliffs experienced larger amounts of permanent cliff-top displacement and produced larger volumes of debris than the smaller cliffs. Results indicated a mean K_MAX amplification ratio for all sites under study of 1.6 (range of 1.1–3.8). Field data and numerical modeling results, however, show that amplification of shaking does not necessarily increase linearly with increasing cliff height. Instead, our results show that accelerations are amplified mainly due to the impedance contrasts between the geological materials, corresponding to where strong differences in rock mass shear wave velocity exist. The resulting acceleration contrasts and rock mass strength control cliff stability. However, the amount of permanent slope displacement and volume of debris leaving the cliffs varied between the sites, due to site-specific geometry and rock mass strength.     

Re-evaluations of seismic hazard of Iraq

In recent years, Iraq has experienced an increase in seismic activity, especially, near the east boundary with Iran. Previous studies present their results in terms of PGA and for return periods of 500 years and less, and other studies not continued to include the whole PSHA process whereas some recent studies continued to include the whole PSHA process using earthquakes data till 2009 including dependent events. This study includes two main stages, the first is collecting the earthquakes records including the recent events till the end of March 2016 and applying data processing to get the net catalog to independent events. The second stage is applying the steps of PSHA method. Matlab programs have been built to execute these two stages and to convert the results of PSHA computations into contours of 5% damping PGA and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s for a return period of 2475 years, and for rock sites. Also, spectral acceleration against period has been presented for main cities. Also, the PGA map, for a return period of 475 years, has been plotted and then prepared together with similar maps of neighbor countries in one map for comparison. In general, this comparison indicates the similarity in behavior but, the values reveal a relative agreement and they are between Turkish and Iranian values.     

Probabilistic and spatial liquefaction analysis using CPT data: a case study for Alameda County site

Soil liquefaction is one of the major concerns causing damage to the structures in saturated sand deposits during earthquakes. Simplified methods for the assessment of liquefaction potential rely on the limit states that are generally established with built-in conservatism and a great deal of subjectivity. Well-known SPT- and CPT-based methods are widely used in the design practice for this purpose due to their simplicity and reasonable predictive capability. However, these methods do not account for various sources of uncertainties explicitly. Moreover, evaluations are made only at the locations of test results and are generalized for the whole region, which may not give accurate results where spatial variation of soil properties is significant. The present study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of liquefaction potential of Alameda County site, California, considering spatial variation of soil indices related to CPT soundings. A stochastic soil model is adopted for this purpose using random field theory and principles of geostatistics by developing 2D exponential correlation functions. It has been observed that the probability of liquefaction is significantly underestimated as much as 34 %, if the spatial dependence of soil indices is not considered. Further, the effect of spatial variation is more prominent in low-level earthquakes compared to the high-level earthquakes, showing a 41.5 % deviation for magnitude 8.1 and a 60.5 % deviation for magnitude 5.0 earthquake at a depth of 10 m.     

Reverse fault slip through soft rock and sand strata by centrifuge modeling tests

The devastating damage after the 1999 Chi-Chi and 1999 Izmit earthquakes has greatly motivated soil–reverse fault interaction studies. However, most centrifuge modeling studies have employed a single homogeneous soil layer during testing, which does not represent in situ conditions. Indeed, while geological conditions vary spatially, engineering soils are often underlain by soft rocks. Therefore, four centrifuge models were developed to evaluate the effect of soft rock layers on the ground surface and subsurface deformation. Sand–cement mixtures of varying thicknesses with a uniaxial compressive strength of 0.975 MPa, simulating extremely soft rock, were overlain by pluviated sandy soil. The model thickness was 100 mm, corresponding to 8 m in the prototype scale when spun at 80 g. Every model was subjected to a vertical offset of 50 mm/4 m (0.5 H; H: total sedimentary deposit thickness) along a reverse fault with a 60° dip. The results indicate that the presence of a soft rock stratum results in the creation of a horst profile at the ground surface. Additionally, the thinner the soil layer on top of the soft rock stratum is, the longer and higher the horst created at the ground surface. Consequently, the fault deformation zone lengthens proportionally with the increasing thickness ratio of the soft rock. Furthermore, the presence of soft rock as an intermediary stratum between bedrock and soil causes the deformation zone boundary on the hanging wall side to move in the direction of fault movement.

     

Source parameters of earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic (RTS) zone of Koyna–Warna, Western India

New empirical relations are derived for source parameters of the Koyna–Warna reservoir-triggered seismic zone in Western India using spectral analysis of 38 local earthquakes in the magnitude range M _L 3.5–5.2. The data come from a seismic network operated by the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, India, during March 2005 to April 2012 in this region. The source parameters viz. seismic moment, source radius, corner frequency and stress drop for the various events lie in the range of 10¹³–10¹⁶ Nm, 0.1–0.4 km, 2.9–9.4 Hz and 3–26 MPa, respectively. Linear relationships are obtained among the seismic moment (M ₀), local magnitude (M _L), moment magnitude (M _w), corner frequency (fc) and stress drop (?σ). The stress drops in the Koyna–Warna region are found to increase with magnitude as well as focal depths of earthquakes. Interestingly, accurate depths derived from moment tensor inversion of earthquake waveforms show a strong correlation with the stress drops, seemingly characteristic of the Koyna–Warna region.     

Application of Hidden Markov Model for avalanche danger simulations for road sectors in North-West Himalaya

Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning, safety and design of infrastructures in seismically vulnerable regions. Gujarat is the only state in peninsular India with the maximum seismic hazard of large shallow earthquakes originating from intra-plate seismicity. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Gujarat is carried out in this paper. Three seismogenic sources, namely Kutch, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, are considered, and seismicity parameters are estimated separately for each region taking into account the completeness of the available earthquake data. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the horizontal component and spectral acceleration at specific periods are considered as the intensity measures. Ground motion predictive equation chosen was reported to be based on simulated ground motions and verified against the strong motion records in the study region. Results are reported for the 17 major cities at the bedrock and also for the soil sites. Apart from hazard curves, 2475 and 475 years of return periods are considered for the PGA and uniform hazard spectra (UHS). The results are compared with the present recommendations of Indian Standards. Key observations include (1) Indian Standards underpredict PGA in the entire Gujarat when the soil sites are considered and in a few cities even at the bedrock; (2) amplification of PGA (or short period hazard) on account of soil sites should be included in the Indian Standard, which is currently absent; (3) shape of the UHS indicates that a separate amplification is required at the hyperbolic portion; and (4) ratio of 2475–475 years of PGA, which is considered 2.0 in Indian Standard, should be reduced to 1.5. Time-dependent recurrence model is also included in this paper and compared with conventional PSHA. General observations include that (1) hazard may increase significantly on account of time dependency; (2) this also influences the disaggregation and in turn the selection of ground motions; and (3) time since last earthquake significantly influences the extent of the effect of time dependency.