Soil failure can be used for seismic protection of structures

A new seismic design philosophy is illuminated, taking advantage of soil “failure” to protect the superstructure. Instead of over-designing the foundation to ensure that the loading stemming from the structural inertia can be “safely” transmitted onto the soil (as with conventional capacity design), and then reinforce the superstructure to avoid collapse, why not do exactly the opposite by intentionally under-designing the foundation to act as a “safety valve” ? The need for this “reversal” stems from the uncertainty in predicting the actual earthquake motion, and the necessity of developing new more rational and economically efficient earthquake protection solutions. A simple but realistic bridge structure is used as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the new approach. Two alternatives are compared : one complying with conventional capacity design, with over-designed foundation so that plastic “hinging” develops in the superstructure; the other following the new design philosophy, with under-designed foundation, “inviting” the plastic “hinge” into the soil. Static “pushover” analyses reveal that the ductility capacity of the new design concept is an order of magnitude larger than of the conventional design: the advantage of “utilising” progressive soil failure. The seismic performance of the two alternatives is investigated through nonlinear dynamic time history analyses, using an ensemble of 29 real accelerograms. It is shown that the performance of both alternatives is totally acceptable for moderate intensity earthquakes, not exceeding the design limits. For large intensity earthquakes, exceeding the design limits, the performance of the new design scheme is proven advantageous, not only avoiding collapse but hardly suffering any inelastic structural deformation. It may however experience increased residual settlement and rotation: a price to pay that must be properly assessed in design.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

Risk based optimal design of detention dams considering uncertain inflows

This study deals with the optimal design of detention dams under flood discharge uncertainties using a simulation-based optimization approach. An extended methodology is represented by integrating the ant colony optimization (ACO), artificial neural networks, and various risk measures including: expected flood discharge, value at risk, and conditional value at risk (CVaR). For this purpose, first, the neural network is trained by the results of a hydrodynamic model and then it is used to measure different risk indices under flood uncertainties. The proposed approach is then applied to a real case and optimal designs are determined by the search algorithm-i.e. ACO. Different optimal designs are obtained for the storage detention dams when different risk concepts are implemented as the objective function in the system modeling. Particularly, when the expected value measure is combined with the CVaR, the cost of optimal design is nearly two times smaller than those obtained by the formulation with independent objective functions whereas the obtained solution could efficiently minimize both E(Q _d ) and CVaR. The optimal solutions have especial capabilities in terms of performance and cost levels and this gives the stakeholders and decision makers to construct a framework to choose the final design when there are different attitudes and interests for flood risk management.     

Contrasted turbulence intensities in the Indonesian Throughflow: a challenge for parameterizing energy dissipation rate

Microstructure measurements were performed along two sections through the Halmahera Sea and the Ombai Strait and at a station in the deep Banda Sea. Contrasting dissipation rates (??) and vertical eddy diffusivities (K _z ) were obtained with depth-averaged ranges of \(\sim [9 \times 10^{-10}-10^{-5}]\) W kg^??1 and of \(\sim [1 \times 10^{-5}-2 \times 10^{-3}]\) m² s^??1, respectively. Similarly, turbulence intensity, \(I={\epsilon }/(\nu N^{2})\) with ν the kinematic viscosity and N the buoyancy frequency, was found to vary seven orders of magnitude with values up to \(10^{7}\). These large ranges of variations were correlated with the internal tide energy level, which highlights the contrast between regions close and far from internal tide generations. Finescale parameterizations of ?? induced by the breaking of weakly nonlinear internal waves were only relevant in regions located far from any generation area (“far field”), at the deep Banda Sea station. Closer to generation areas, at the “intermediate field” station of the Halmahera Sea, a modified formulation of MacKinnon and Gregg (2005) was validated for moderately turbulent regimes with 100 < I < 1000. Near generation areas marked by strong turbulent regimes such as “near field” stations within strait and passages, ?? is most adequately inferred from horizontal velocities provided that part of the inertial subrange is resolved, according to Kolmogorov scaling.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Long-term changes in the Delta <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 parameter based on the data of two European ionospheric stations

Analysis of changes in the critical frequency foF2 in recent decades has been performed by determination of “Delta foF2” parameter. These values determine the mean change of foF2 values from the “etalon period” (1958–1980) to later periods. The results are compared with the determination of foF2 trends, which was performed in a series of previous publications of the authors. The data of two most reliable ionospheric stations of the European region, Slough and Juliusruh, are analyzed. The results confirm all principal conclusions obtained earlier, which were based on analysis of the trends. A systematic decrease of foF2 with time occurs (which corresponds to a negative trend), and the character of changes in the Delta values with season and local time on the whole agrees with the character of changes in the trend. It is shown that the results based on the data of both considered stations show good agreement.     

Effects of geomagnetic disturbances in daytime variations of the atmospheric electric field in polar regions

We have studied the influence of daytime polar substorms (geomagnetic bays under the IMF Bz > 0) on variations of the vertical gradient of the atmospheric electric field potential (Ez) observed at the Polish Hornsund Station (Svalbard, Norway). Only the observations of Ez under “fair weather” conditions were used, i.e. in the absence of strong wind, precipitations, low cloud cover, etc. We studied more than 20 events of daytime polar substorms registered by the Scandinavian chain of IMAGE magnetometers in 2010–2014 during the “fair weather” periods at the Hornsund Station. Analysis of the observations showed that Ez significantly deviates from the its background variations during daytime, as a rule, when the Hornsund Station is in the region of projection of the daytime auroral oval, the position of which was determined from OVATION data. It was shown that the development of a daytime polar substorm leads to fluctuating enhance of Ez values. It was found that Ez surges are accompanied by intensification of field-aligned electric currents outflowing from the ionosphere, which were calculated from the data of low-orbit communication satellites of the AMPERE project.     

Diagnostics of Turbulent Dynamo from the Flux Emergence Rate in Solar Active Regions

Line-of-sight magnetograms acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) and by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for 14 emerging ARs were used to study the derivative of the total unsigned flux–the flux emergence rate, R(t). We found that the emergence regime is not universal: each AR displays a unique emergence process. Nevertheless, two types of the emergence process can be identified. First type is a “regular” emergence with quasi-constant behavior of R(t) during a 1–3 day emergence interval with a rather low magnitude of the flux derivative, R_max = (0.57 ± 0.22) × 10²² Mx day^–1. The second type can be described as “accelerated” emergence with a long interval (>1 day) of the rapidly increasing flux derivative R(t) that result in a rather high magnitude of R_max= (0.92 ± 0.29) × 10²² Mx day^–1, which later changes to a very short (about a one third of day) interval of R(t) = const followed by a monotonous decrease of R(t). The first type events might be associated with emergence of a flux tube with a constant amount of flux that rises through the photosphere with a quasi-constant speed. Such events can be explained by the traditional largescale solar dynamo generating the toroidal flux deep in the convective zone. The second-type events can be interpreted as a signature of sub-surface turbulent dynamo action that generates additional magnetic flux (via turbulent motions) as the magnetic structure makes its way up to the solar surface.     

Surface Deformation due to Loading of a Layered Elastic Half-space: Constructing the Solution for a General Polygonal Load

We describe an algorithm for rapidly computing the surface displacements induced by a general polygonal load on a layered, isotropic, elastic half-space. The arbitrary surface pressure field is discretized using a large number, n, of equally-sized circular loading elements. The problem is to compute the displacement at a large number, m, of points (or stations) distributed over the surface. The essence of our technique is to reorganize all but a computationally insignificant part of this calculation into an equivalent problem: compute the displacements due to a single circular loading element at a total of m n stations (where m n is the product m × n). We solve this “parallel” problem at high computational speed by utilizing the sparse evaluation and massive interpolation (SEMI) method. Because the product m n that arises in our parallel problem is normally very large, we take maximum possible advantage of the acceleration achieved by the SEMI algorithm.     

Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity Before Large Taiwanese Earthquakes Using the G-R Law

Seismicity has been identified as an example of a natural, nonlinear system for which the distribution of frequency and event size follow a power law called the “Gutenberg–Richter (G-R) law.” The parameters of the G-R law, namely b- and a-values, have been widely used in many studies about seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting models, and other related topics. However, the plausibility of the power law model and applicability of parameters were mainly verified by statistical error σ of the b-value, the effectiveness of which is still doubtful. In this research, we used a newly defined p value developed by Clausetet al. (Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data, SIAM Rev. 51, 661–703, 2009) instead of the statistical error σ of the b-value and verified its effectiveness as a plausibility index of the power-law model. Furthermore, we also verified the effectiveness of K–S statistics as a goodness-of-fit test in estimating the crucial parameter \(M_{\text{c}}\) of the power-law model.     

Understanding the statistical properties of the percent model affinity index can improve biomonitoring related decision making

The percent model affinity (PMA) index is used to measure the similarity of two probability profiles representing, for example, an ideal profile (i.e. reference condition) and a monitored profile (i.e. possibly impacted condition). The goal of this work is to study the effects of sample size, evenness, true value of the index and number of classes on the statistical properties of the estimator of the PMA index. We derive and extend previous formulas of the expectation and variance of the estimator for estimated monitored profile and fixed reference profile. Using the obtained extension, we find that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, converging faster when the profiles differ. When both profiles are estimated, we calculate the expectation using transformation rules for expectation and in addition derive the formula for the estimator’s variance. Since the computation of the probabilities in the variance formula is slow, we study the behavior of the variance with simulation experiments and assess whether it could be approximated with the variance for the fixed reference profile. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for the users of the PMA index to avoid the most common caveats of the index.     

Seismic performance evaluation of traditional timber <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hımış</Emphasis> frames: capacity spectrum method based assessment

Timber constructions have been widely suggested to be seismically resistant based on post-disaster reconnaissance studies. This observation has, however, remained to a large extent anecdotal due to the lack of experimental work supporting it, especially for certain timber architectural forms, including traditional timber frame “h?m??” structures. To fill this gap, the authors carried out an extensive full-scale testing scheme using frames of various geometrical configurations, tested under reverse-cyclic lateral loading with/without infill (brick and adobe) or cladding (ba?dadi and ?amdolma) (Aktas et al. in Earthq Spectra 30(4):1711–1732, 2014a, b). The tests concluded that h?m?? frames had high energy dissipation capabilities due mostly to nailed connections. Infill/cladding significantly helped improve stiffness and lateral load strength of the frames, and timber type did not seem to make a remarkable impact on the overall behaviour. The current paper, on the other hand, uses test data to calculate capacity/demand ratios based on capacity spectrum method and Eurocode 8 to elaborate more on the performance of “h?m??” structures under seismic loading. The obtained results are discussed to draw important conclusions with regards to how frame geometry and infill/cladding techniques affect the overall performance.     

Shear wave velocity-based evaluation and design of stone column improved ground for liquefaction mitigation

The evaluation and design of stone column improvement ground for liquefaction mitigation is a challenging issue for the state of practice. In this paper, a shear wave velocity-based approach is proposed based on the well-defined correlations of liquefaction resistance (CRR)-shear wave velocity (V _s)-void ratio (e) of sandy soils, and the values of parameters in this approach are recommended for preliminary design purpose when site specific values are not available. The detailed procedures of pre- and post-improvement liquefaction evaluations and stone column design are given. According to this approach, the required level of ground improvement will be met once the target V _s of soil is raised high enough (i.e., no less than the critical velocity) to resist the given earthquake loading according to the CRR-V _s relationship, and then this requirement is transferred to the control of target void ratio (i.e., the critical e) according to the V _s-e relationship. As this approach relies on the densification of the surrounding soil instead of the whole improved ground and is conservative by nature, specific considerations of the densification mechanism and effect are given, and the effects of drainage and reinforcement of stone columns are also discussed. A case study of a thermal power plant in Indonesia is introduced, where the effectiveness of stone column improved ground was evaluated by the proposed V _s-based method and compared with the SPT-based evaluation. This improved ground performed well and experienced no liquefaction during subsequent strong earthquakes.     

An ocean circulation model in <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>S-<Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>-<Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>B hybrid coordinate and its validation

A 3D, two-time-level, σS-z-σB hybrid-coordinate Marine Science and Numerical Modeling numerical ocean circulation model (HyMOM) is developed in this paper. In HyMOM, the σ coordinate is employed in the surface and bottom regions, and the z coordinate is used in the intermediate layers. This method can overcome problems with vanishing surface cells and minimize the unwanted deviation in representing bottom topography. The connection between the σ and z layers vertically includes an expanded “ghost” method and the linear interpolation. The governing equations in the σS-z-σB hybrid coordinate based on the complete Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are derived in detail. The two-level time staggered and Eulerian forward and backward schemes, which are of second-order of accuracy, are adopted for the temporal difference in internal and external mode, respectively. The computation of the baroclinic gradient force is tested in an analytic test problem; the errors for two methods in HyMOM, which are relatively large only in the bottom layers, are obviously smaller than those in the pure σ and z models in almost all of the vertical layers. A quasi-global climatologic numerical experiment is constructed to test the simulation performance of HyMOM. With the monthly mean Levitus climatology data as reference, the HyMOM can improve the simulating accuracy compared with its pure z or σ coordinate implementation.     

Experimental study on the shear behavior of the interface between cushion materials and the concrete raft

Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.     

Spatial and time variations in critical frequencies of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region above the zone of equatorial earthquake preparation

Spatial and time variations in the critical frequencies foF2 before the strong earthquake of August 15, 1963, with the magnitude M = 7.75 are analyzed. The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the vicinity of the magnetic equator in the American longitudinal sector. The data of the topside ionosonde on board Alouette-1 and of the series of ground-based ionosondes has been used for this purpose. The ground-based ionosondes made it possible to detect an insignificant anomalous decrease in foF2 within the zone of earthquake preparation a few days prior to the earthquake. This result confirms the conclusion drawn earlier on the basis of the satellite data. The modification of the ionosphere at the F-region level is more evident in the satellite than in the ground-based data. It is also noted that the character of the time variations in foF2 a day before the earthquake is similar to the so called “quiet time” Q-disturbances in the ionosphere, when the electron concentration at the F region maximum differs from the median values by more than 20% under undisturbed geophysical conditions.     

Magnetic field variations in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk

Temporal variations of the maximum (B _max) and average (〈B〉) magnetic inductions, minimum (α _min) and average (〈α〉) inclination angles of the field lines to the radial direction from the center of the Sun, and areas of the sunspot umbra S in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk are investigated. The variation of the properties of single sunspots has been considered at different stages of their existence, i.e., during formation, the “quiet” period, and the disappearance stage. It has been found that, for the majority of the selected single sunspots, there is a positive correlation between B _max and S and between 〈B〉 and S defined at different times during the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. It is shown in this case that the nature of the dependence between the parameters α _min and B _max, α _min and S, as well as between 〈α〉 and 〈B〉, 〈α〉 and S, can vary from sunspot to sunspot, but for many sunspots the inclination angle of the field lines decreases on average with the growth of the sunspot umbra area and the field strength.     

Magnetospheric-ionospheric convection in an open model of the magnetosphere

Magnetospheric-ionospheric convection has been calculated for an open model of the magnetosphere with an ellipsoidal magnetopause in an approximation of uniform IMF. It is assumed that only 0.1 part of IMF falls in the magnetosphere as a result of the effect of IMF shielding by the magnetopause. The modeling of convection has been performed for the cases when the IMF B _z component is directed southward and the B _y component is westward or eastward. A Tsyganenko 96 model has been used as a magnetospheric model. The model calculations are compared with the data on the ion drift in the ionosphere. A certain disagreement between the experimental and calculated data has been found in the pattern of convection on the dayside of the ionosphere for the case of B _y >0, which manifested itself in the dimensions of a convection “tongue” and in the position of the convection throat on the dayside. It has been indicated that the convection pattern agrees with the results of observations if the azimuthally inhomogeneous magnetospheric conductivity is taken into account.     

Generation of superDreicer electric fields in the solar chromosphere

The electric field generation at the front of the current pulse, which originates in a coronal magnetic loop owing to the development of the Rayleigh–Taylor magnetic instability at loop footpoints, has been considered. During the τ_A ≈ l/V _A ≈ 5?25 s time (where l is the plasma plume height entering a magnetic loop as a result of the Rayleigh–Taylor instability), a disturbance related to the magnetic field tension B _?(r,t), “escapes” the instability region with the Alfvén velocity in this case. As a result, an electric current pulse I_z(z ? V _A t), at the front of which an induction magnetic field E _z, which is directed along the magnetic tube axis and can therefore accelerate particles, starts propagating along a magnetic loop with a characteristic scale of Δξ ≈ l. In the case of sufficiently large currents, when B _? ²/8π > p, an electric current pulse propagates nonlinearly, and a relatively large longitudinal electric field originates E _z ≈ 2I _z ³ V _A/c ⁴a²B_z ²l, which can be larger than the Dreicer field, depending on the electric current value.