West Nile Virus and Drought

West Nile virus was first reported in Uganda in 1937. WNV is a zoonosis, with "spill-over" to humans, which also poses significant risks for wildlife, zoo and domestic animal populations. While it is not known how West Nile virus (WNV) entered the New World in 1999, anomalous weather conditions may have helped amplify this Flavivirus that circulates among urban mosquitoes, birds and mammals. We analyzed weather patterns coincident with a series of U.S. urban outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis (SLE), (a disease with a similar life cycle), and four recent large outbreaks of WNV. Drought emerged as a common feature. As the potential risks from pesticides for disease control must be weighed against the health risks of the disease, an early warning system of conditions conducive to amplification of the enzootic cycle could help initiate timely preventive measures, and potentially limit chemical interventions.     

Bayesian analysis of a dynamical model for the spread of the Usutu virus

The Usutu virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes and causing disease in birds. The virus was detected in Austria for the first time in 2001, while a major outbreak occurred in 2003. Rubel et al. (2008) developed a nine-compartment deterministic SEIR model to explain the spread of the disease. We extended this to a hierarchical Bayes model assuming random variation in temperature data, in reproduction data of birds, and in the number of birds found to be infected. The model was implemented in R, combined with the FORTRAN subroutine for the original deterministic model. Analysis was made by MCMC using a random walk Metropolis scheme. Posterior means, medians, and credible intervals were calculated for the parameters. The hierarchical Bayes approach proved to be fruitful in extending the deterministic model into a stochastic one. It allowed for Bayesian point and interval estimation and quantification of uncertainty of predictions. The analysis revealed that some model parameters were not identifiable; therefore we kept constant some of them and analyzed others conditional on them. Identifiability problems are common in models aiming to mirror the mechanism of the process, since parameters with natural interpretation are likely to exhibit interrelationships. This study illustrated that Bayesian modeling combined with conditional analysis may help in those cases. Its application to the Usutu model improved model fit and revealed the structure of interdependencies between model parameters: it demonstrated that determining some of them experimentally would enable estimation of the others, except one of them, from available data.     

Global Warming and Risk of Vivax Malaria in Great Britain

Malaria (ague) was once common in many parts of Great Britain (GB). Here we identify areas currently at risk from vivax malaria and examine how this pattern may change as a consequence of global warming during this century. We used a mathematical model to describe how temperature affects the risk of vivax malaria, transmitted by a common British mosquito, Anopheles atroparvus. This model was linked with present-day temperature surfaces and future temperature change scenarios for GB, and used to map areas suitable for malaria transmission. We found an excellent agreement between the present-day risk map for malaria and historical records of ague distribution. This study demonstrates that many parts of GB are warm enough for malaria transmission and the extent of these areas are likely to increase in the future. Health services need to remain aware of the possibility of locally-transmitted malaria, particularly in marshland areas in southern England. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Imaging of offset VSP data acquired in complex areas with modified reverse-time migration

A modified reverse-time migration algorithm for offset vertical seismic profiling data is proposed. This algorithm performs depth imaging of target areas in the borehole vicinity without taking into account the overburden. Originally recorded seismograms are used; reliable results can be obtained using only the velocity profile obtained along the well. The downgoing wavefield emitted from a surface source is approximated in the target area using the transmitted P-wave, recorded by the receivers deployed in the well. This is achieved through a reverse-time extrapolation of the direct transmitted P-wave into the target area after its separation in offset vertical seismic profiling seismograms generated using a finite-difference scheme for the solution of the scalar wave equation.
The proposed approach produces 'kinematically' reliable images from reflected PP- and PS-waves and, furthermore, can be applied as a salt proximity tool for salt body flank imaging based on the transmitted PS-waves. Our experiments on synthetic data demonstrate that the modified reverse-time migration provides reliable depth images based on offset vertical seismic profiling data even if only the velocity profile obtained along the borehole is used.     

Foraging behavior of Chleuastochoerus (Suidae,Artiodactyla): A case study of skull and mandible morpho-functional analysis

The skull and mandible of a Late Miocene fossil pig,Chleuastochoerus,are compared morphologically with those of extant pigs and peccaries,and subjected to a functional analysis.The presence of a rostral bone in the skull and relatively strong rostral muscles indicates that Chleuastochoerus possessed considerable digging ability,though the relatively narrow occipital surface and the shortness of the skull would have restricted the range of motion through which the skull could be swung.The distinctive pre-zygomatic plate and over-canine arch-niche may have played a role in protecting the skull and canines during digging.The massive masticatory muscles,reconstructed based on well-developed parietal and zygomatic crests,would have enabled the mouth to close quickly and contributed to moving the mandible both longitudinally and laterally.The configuration of the cranio-mandibular joint and its relatively high position show clearly that Chleuastochoerus was capable of both crushing and grinding movements during mastication.The comparatively simple structure of the crown surfaces of the cheek teeth suggests that the food of Chleuastochoerus may have been softer than that of extant suids.The diet of Chleuastochoerus is postulated to fall between those of true forest pigs and open habitat pigs,and the habitat of Chleuastochoerus to be relatively humid forest edge or nearby areas of open steppe.     

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: implications for the evolution of post‐orogenic landscapes

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non‐glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south‐western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high‐resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope–channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km², a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris‐flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint‐driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area–elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post‐orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel–hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically‐inactive (i.e. post‐orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering‐limited hillslopes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移（二）

基于大陆岩石圈塑性流动网络和塑性流动波的观念，地震迁移主要表现为塑性流动波控制下地震沿网带的迁移。中东亚网络系统存在着两种以上的塑性流动波，其中与地震中期预测有关的是“十年波”和“百年波”。它们具有不同的起波年份、起波期和波峰带，而各期波的优势传播方向和有效作用范围又有所不同。两种波的波峰带相互叠合形成双重波峰区，其中有“塑性流动－地震”网带经过的区段为地震提供必要的能量背景条件，构成能量背景区。对中国大陆１９７６年震情的检验表明，６．０～７．８级地震共１９次，约有９０％分布在相应震级范围的能量背景区内     

LES DONNÉES SUR L'EAU ACTUELLES ET FUTURES / WATER DATA TODAY AND IN PROSPECT

ABSTRACT

The network density for the estimation of areal rainfall is determined by the method of optimum estimation. This method considers local variations as well as inter-station characteristics of rainfall over an area while assigning weights to gauges for the estimation of areal rainfall. The network density required for different tolerable errors in the estimation of areal rainfall for the months June-September, for the monsoon season, and for the year, was determined for different sized areas over Vidarbha, a meteorological subdivision of India. The errors in estimations of areal rainfall obtained by the method of optimum estimation are smaller than those obtained by the arithmetic mean.     

Hydrocarbon accumulation in network and its application in the continental rift basin

The concept of hydrocarbon accumulation in network was presented on basis of the overall analysis of the formation and evolution characteristics of the continental faulted basin and of the systemic re-search on the major controlling factors on the hydrocarbon accumulation. The hydrocarbon accumu-lation in network can be defined as hydrocarbon accumulation in a three-dimensional network system which is constituted by the hydrocarbon migration passages under multiple dynamics,following the hydrocarbon generation from source rocks. The research shows that the hydrocarbon accumulation in network is composed of four elements,i.e.,hydrocarbon source (source rock kitchen),hydrocarbon accumulation terminal (trap),network pathway connecting source and terminal (transporting system),and network potential driving hydrocarbon migration in the network pathway (migration dynamics). Compared with other networks,hydrocarbon accumulation in network has three basic characteristics: the irreversible geological process of material and information flow in the network; the loss of material and information in the flow process in the network; the multiple dynamics in the flow process. Interac-tion of all the elements in the geological process can be called hydrocarbon accumulation in network. There are three basic models for hydrocarbon accumulation in network,that is,hydrocarbon accumu-lation in the network source area,hydrocarbon accumulation in the network pathway,and hydrocarbon accumulation in the network terminal. The key in the application of the hydrocarbon accumulation models in network in practice is to confirm the major accumulation stage and the function range of the four elements controlling the hydrocarbon firstly,to predict the profitable accumulation region by su-perposition of the favorable areas confirmed by four elements consequently,and to evaluate the oil-bearing property of the trap as well as confirm drilling targets. This paper takes the Dongying De-pression in the Bohai Bay Basin as an application example.     

Channel network extent in the context of historical land use,flow generation processes,and landscape evolution in the North Carolina Piedmont

Intensive agricultural land use in the 18th to early 20th centuries on the southeastern Piedmont resulted in substantial soil erosion and gully development. Today, many historically farmed areas have been abandoned and afforested, and such landscapes are an opportunity to study channel network recovery from disturbance by gullying. Channel initiation mapping, watershed area–slope relationships, and field monitoring of flow generation processes are used to identify channel network extent and place it in hydrologic, historical and landscape evolution context. In six study areas in the North Carolina Piedmont, 100 channel heads were mapped in fully‐forested watersheds, revealing a channel initiation relationship of 380 = AS^1.27, where A is contributing area (m²) and S is local slope (m/m). Flow in these channels is generated by subsurface and overland flow. The measured relative slope exponent is lower than expected based on literature values of ~2 for forested watersheds with subsurface and overland flow, suggesting that the channel network extent may reflect a former hydrological regime. However, geomorphic evidence of recovery in channel heads within fully forested watersheds is greater than those with present day pasture. Present day channel heads lie within hollows or downslope of unchanneled valleys, which may be remnants of historical gullies, and area–slope relationships provide evidence of colluvial aggradation within the valleys. Channel network extent appears to be sensitive to land use change, with recovery beginning within decades of afforestation. Channel initiation mapping and area–slope relationships are shown to be useful tools for interpreting geomorphic effects of land use change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the influence of rainfall,vegetation and animals on soil erosion and hillslope connectivity in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia

Erosion of soil by water is facilitated by both diffusive and fluvial processes. Here we examine three different soil redistribution processes operating at very different spatial and temporal scales in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia. The first process, rainsplash, operates across the entire catchment. This process, while subject to annual and seasonal variations in rainfall amount and intensity, can be considered a constant forcing and redistributes on average 9 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ (range −0.9 to 19 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The second process, bioturbation, where in this study soil is disturbed by feral pigs (wild boar), occurs in selected areas throughout each year. Pigs exhume 3 to 36.0 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ (average ~11 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The effect of this disturbance may last for many years afterwards. The third process is the disturbance of the soil surface by tree throw and creation of pit–mound topography (also a form of bioturbation), together with the resultant placement of the tree superstructure (above ground biomass) on the ground, which may form debris dams. Tree throw at the scale examined here is likely to occur only once every 50–100 years, with the influence of this single event lasting for at least 10 years post event. Tree throw in a single event exhumed ~5 t ha⁻¹ (1.1–9.5 t ha⁻¹) of soil. In contrast to rainsplash, pig disturbance and tree throw events are largely point-based phenomena. Field observation suggests that it takes many years for the disturbance from both pigs and tree throw to be removed. We find here that in terms of relative soil redistribution, rainsplash has the largest influence, with any erosional disturbance by pigs and tree throw being within the variability of rainsplash. However, the disruption of surface flow by the pig digs and tree throw disrupts sedimentological and hydrological connectivity.     

Radon-222 Concentration and Aquifer Lithology in North Carolina

The presence of the radioactive gas radon (Rn-222) in many ground water supplies is a potentially significant source of public exposure to ionizing radiation. A wide range of radon concentrations has been measured in ground water in North Carolina, including some far in excess of national average concentrations. North Carolina is, however, geologically complex and ground water radon concentrations vary considerably among the state's aquifers. The highest average radon concentrations occur in areas underlain by granites (geometric mean 5910 pCi/l), and the lowest occur in the Atlantic Coastal Plain region (48 pCi/l). Average radon levels intermediate between these extremes are characteristic of the large areas of North Carolina underlain by gneisses, schists and metavolcanic rocks. Relative average radon concentrations in ground water from the rock types surveyed are consistent with relative abundances of uranium, the parent element of radon, in these rocks. Although other geologic and hydrologic factors also have an effect, aquifer lithology is a useful predictor of the concentration of radon in ground water. The occurrence of high radon concentrations in certain aquifer types; such as granites, shows that geologic factors should be considered in estimates of population exposure to radon, and that knowledge of aquifer geology can help to predict ground water radon concentrations in areas where field sampling has not been done.     

基于有效邻域波场近似的起伏地表保幅高斯束偏移

随着我国陆上地震勘探向复杂地表探区的转移,高精度、适应性强的地震成像方法在地震资料的处理、解释及后续属性分析、储层预测中具有重要意义.本文基于有效邻域波场近似理论发展了一种成像精度更高且适用于复杂起伏地表条件的叠前保幅高斯束偏移方法.在传统水平地表高斯束偏移的基础上,本文根据中心射线附近有效邻域内高斯束表征的近似波场,导出了起伏地表条件下具有相对振幅保持的高斯束偏移公式,并给出了一种精度更高的旁轴射线传播角度计算方法.同现有的高斯束偏移方法相比,本文方法不仅考虑了起伏地表对高斯束走时的线性影响,而且首次引入了由地表高程差异和近地表速度变化引起的二次时差校正项和振幅校正项,使得成像结果更加准确可靠.两个典型模型算例验证了本文方法的正确性和有效性.     

A survey of trace element distribution in tissues of stone crabs (Menippe mercenaria) from South Carolina coastal waters

The stone crab (Menippe mercenaria) is an important component of the estuarine food web as both predator and prey. Stone crabs live in sediment, primarily consume oysters, and as a result, have the potential to accumulate significant quantities of pollutants including metals. In South Carolina, the stone crab is becoming a targeted fishery as an ecologically sustainable seafood choice. To date, no studies have reported metals in stone crab tissues. This study examined the distribution of major and minor trace elements in chelae and body muscle, gill, and hepatopancreas. Crabs were collected from three tidal areas within Charleston County, South Carolina, with differing upland use. Results were compared by collection location and by tissue type. Concentrations of some metals associated with anthropogenic activities were up to three times higher in crabs from sites adjacent to more urbanized areas. Concentrations in edible tissues were below historical FDA levels of concern.     

A two-dimensional probabilistic acute human-health risk assessment of insecticide exposure after adult mosquito management

Ultra-low-volume (ULV) aerosol applications of insecticides are used to manage high densities of adult mosquitoes. We used two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment methodologies to evaluate three pyrethroid insecticides (phenothrin, resmethrin, and permethrin), pyrethrins, and two organophosphate insecticides (malathion and naled), applied by truck-mounted ULV sprayer. Piperonyl butoxide, a synergist commonly used in pyrethroid and pyrethrins formulations, was also assessed. The objective of our study was to evaluate probabilistically if a deterministic human-health risk assessment of mosquito insecticides was sufficiently conservative to protect human-health. Toddlers and infants were the highest risk groups while adult males were the lowest risk group assessed in this study. Total acute exposure ranged from 0.00003 to 0.0003 mg/kg day⁻¹ for the chemicals and subgroups assessed examining inhalation, dermal, oral, and hand-to-mouth exposure. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our risk assessment, which is calculated by dividing the total potential exposure for each subgroup and chemical by its ingestion toxic endpoint value (RfD). Mean RQs ranged from 0.000004 to 0.034 for all subgroups and chemicals, with none exceeding the RQ level of concern. Naled had the highest RQs of any chemical assessed while PBO had the lowest. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the exposure from inhalation and deposition contributed the largest variance to the model output. Results support the findings of previous studies that the risks from adult mosquito management are most likely negligible, and that the human-health deterministic risk assessment is most likely sufficiently conservative.     

Temporal analysis of the frequency and duration of low and high streamflow: years of record needed to characterize streamflow variability

A temporal analysis of the number and duration of exceedences of high- and low-flow thresholds was conducted to determine the number of years required to detect a level shift using data from Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Two methods were used—ordinary least squares assuming a known error variance and generalized least squares without a known error variance. Using ordinary least squares, the mean number of years required to detect a one standard deviation level shift in measures of low-flow variability was 57.2 (28.6 on either side of the break), compared to 40.0 years for measures of high-flow variability. These means become 57.6 and 41.6 when generalized least squares is used. No significant relations between years and elevation or drainage area were detected (P>0.05). Cluster analysis did not suggest geographic patterns in years related to physiography or major hydrologic regions. Referring to the number of observations required to detect a one standard deviation shift as ‘characterizing’ the variability, it appears that at least 20 years of record on either side of a shift may be necessary to adequately characterize high-flow variability. A longer streamflow record (about 30 years on either side) may be required to characterize low-flow variability.     

2015年阿拉善左旗5.8级地震前低频异常分析

针对2015年4月15日鄂尔多斯块体西北缘阿拉善左旗5.8级地震,利用内蒙古地震台网数字波形资料,采用快速傅里叶变换,分析2015年1月1日至4月15日震前频谱特征,意在判断震前是否存在低频异常信号。结果显示：①在5.8级地震前,东升庙、石嘴山及乌海地震台的地震波形低频信号存在相同现象;②低频信号在震前10天开始出现,并间断持续至发震;③低频信号出现的时间不连续,且持续时间间隔逐步缩短。     

Mercury in feathers from Chilean birds: influence of location,feeding strategy,and taxonomic affiliation

This study reports baseline concentrations of mercury (Hg) in feathers from different species of birds sampled at various locations off the Chilean coast (Southeastern Pacific). Hg concentrations were evaluated in relation to geographic location, taxonomic affiliation, and feeding strategies. Between January and March of 1995, we collected mature contour feathers from 116 birds belonging to 22 species, mostly seabirds. Birds were collected from 10 different locations (26 degrees 09'S, 70 degrees 40'W to 54 degrees 56'S, 67 degrees 37'W). Feather Hg concentrations ranged from 0.11 to 13 microg g(-1) dry weight. We found differences in feather Hg concentrations across taxonomic groups, with highest concentrations in petrels, shearwaters, and albatrosses (Procellaridae), followed by boobies (Sulidae), gulls, terns, skuas (Laridae) and cormorants (Phalacrocoracidae). Ibises and oystercatchers (Threskiornithidae and Charadriidae) had intermediate values, whereas ducks and geese (Anatidae) contained the least amount of Hg. Oceanic species preying on mesopelagic fish (the Procellariformes albatrosses, petrels, and fulmars) had over twice as much Hg (overall average of 3.9 microg g(-1)) when compared to the rest of the species sampled (overall average of 1.5 microg g(-1)). We did not find higher Hg concentrations in birds inhabiting the more heavily industrialized and urbanized areas of the country (central and northern regions), but in birds inhabiting the remote Juan Fernandez Archipelago. This is not surprising, since all the Procellariformes (the group with highest Hg values in this study) were collected from these islands. Except for Hg in Kermadec petrels (mean of 12 microg g(-1)), the range of Hg values reported here (0.11-7.3 microg g(-1)) fell below those known to cause adverse health and reproductive effects in birds.     

Getting it right for the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaenaglacialis): A last opportunity for effective marine spatial planning?

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces increasing pressure from commercial shipping traffic and proposed marine renewable energy developments. Drawing upon the successful Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary model, we propose a multi-stakeholder marine spatial planning process that considers both appropriate positioning of offshore wind farms and redefining commercial shipping lanes relative to whale migration routes: placement of wind turbines within certain right whale habitats may prove beneficial for the species. To that end, it may be advisable to initially relocate the shipping lanes for the benefit of the whales prior to selecting wind energy areas. The optimal end-state is the commercial viability of renewable energy, as well as a safe shipping infrastructure, with minimal risk of collision and exposure to shipping noise for the whales. This opportunity to manage impacts on right whales could serve as a model for other problematic interactions between marine life and commercial activities.     

Geophysical monitoring and evaluation of coastal plain aquifers

We use time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) soundings to monitor ground water conditions beneath the coastal plain in eastern North Carolina. The TDEM method measures the earth's response to an induced electromagnetic field. The resulting signal is converted, through a complex inversion process, to apparent resistivity values, which can be directly correlated to borehole resistivity logs. TDEM soundings are used to map the interface between fresh and salt water within coastal aquifers, and estimate depth to basement when siting new monitoring wells. Focused TDEM surveys have identified areas of salt water encroachment caused by high volumes of discharge from local supply wells. Electromagnetic sounding, when used in tandem with the state's network of monitoring wells, is an accurate and inexpensive tool for evaluating fresh water/salt water relationships on both local and regional scales within coastal plain aquifers.