中国产业结构升级、全要素能源效率与碳排放（英文）

基于2000-2018年全国30个省份（港澳台、西藏除外）的面板数据,利用面板回归模型和中介效应模型分析了产业结构升级、全要素能源效率及碳排放之间的关系和影响机制。研究发现：产业结构高级化在不同区域对碳排放均呈现显著的抑制作用,不同区域的抑制强度呈现“西部>中部>东部”的规律;产业结构合理化在不同区域对碳排放的抑制作用差异较大,在中西部地区表现为显著的抑制作用,但在东部地区抑制作用不显著;各区域全要素能源效率的提升对碳排放的抑制作用均较为显著,抑制强度呈现“西部>东部>中部”的规律。进一步通过中介检验发现,不同区域的全要素能源效率在产业结构升级与碳排放的作用中具有部分和完全中介效应,能够促进和加强产业结构升级对碳排放的抑制作用。因此,研究认为产业结构升级和提升全要素能源效率是促进碳减排的有效手段,但单独依赖产业结构升级的碳减排效果并不理想,需与提升全要素能源效率相结合才会对碳减排起到有效的促进作用。     

中国经济地理学研究进展（英文）

Economic geography in China's mainland has developed in a different way from that in many other countries. On the one hand, it has been increasingly active in participating in academic dialogues and knowledge development led by Anglophone countries; on the other hand, it takes practice-based and policy-oriented research, i.e. satisfying the demands from the Chinese government and society, as the linchpin of research. Since there has been a lot of literature reviewing the development of economic geography in the country before the new millennium, this paper will make a comprehensive analysis of the discipline in 2000–2015, based on a bibliometric survey and research projects done by Chinese economic geographers. The analysis indicates that(1) economic geography research in China's mainland is unevenly distributed but concentrated in several leading institutions;(2) traditional research fields like human-nature system, regional disparity, industrial location and transportation geography remain dominant while new topics such as globalization, multinational corporations and foreign direct investments, information and communication technology, producer services, climate change and carbon emission emerge as important research areas;(3) Chinese economic geography is featured by policy-oriented research funded by government agencies, having considerable impacts on regional policy making in China, both national and regional. To conclude, the paper argues that the development of economic geography in China's mainland needs to follow a dual track in the future, i.e. producing knowledge for the international academic community and undertaking policy-oriented research to enhance its role as a major consulting body for national, regional and local development.     

中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素分析（英文）

Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.     

基于IO-SDA模型的新疆能源消费碳排放影响机理分析（英文）

Analysis of carbon emission mechanism based on regional perspectives is an important research method capable of achieving energy savings and emission reductions.Xinjiang,an important Chinese energy production base,is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development.Ensuring stable socio-economic development while achieving energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets,is the key issue currently facing the region.This paper is based on the input-output theory,and conducts a structural decomposition analysis on the factors affecting energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2007;this analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of "energy- economy- carbon emissions".(1) Xinjiang's carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007;carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources,the mining of mineral resources,and the processing industry.(2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions showed that the change in per capita GDP,the final demand structure,the population scale,and the production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions,while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was the important influencing factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions.This showed that while the sizes of Xinjiang's economy and population were growing,the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and the production technology had not been efficiently improved,resulting in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption.(3) The analysis of the indirect effects of the influencing factors of carbon emission showed that the inter-provincial export,fixed capital formation,and the consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang.(4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon intensive industry sectors,in addition to the growth of inter-provincial exports of energy resource products,makes the transfer effect of inter-provincial "embodied carbon" very significant.     

气候变化对工业经济系统的影响研究进展（英文）

全球气候变化导致全球海洋酸化、冰雪融化、气温持续升高、极端天气发生频率增多,进而对社会经济系统产生深远影响。随着气候变化的加剧,抵抗气候风险能力较强的工业领域也遭受了严重的损失。目前,工业领域的脆弱性不断加深,工业经济损失的绝对量也在不断增长,定量评估工业经济损失是制定应对气候变化政策的重要依据,通过梳理当前的研究进展,可以为工业经济的评估提供思路和方法。因此,本文对工业领域受气候变化影响的正负面效应进行概述,发现不同工业部门受到气候变化的影响略有不同,部分区域的采矿业对气温升高的响应为正向,但风暴、干旱以及降雨会破坏采矿业的正常生产经营活动;制造业大多是室内作业,抵抗极端气候的能力相对较强,部分产业反应机制复杂;建筑业的损失多集中在间接损失,通过电力成本提高等反馈;电力、热力及水的生产和供应业在遭受极端气候时会出现传输供应损失,且作为碳排放最大的行业,其减排成本短期内会影响该部门的经济增长。工业部门为了应对气候变化付出了较大的适应和减缓成本,因此通过模型量化评估工业经济的损失,有利于制定合理的政策,保证工业经济平稳有序的增长。     

中国能源消费与气候变化的关系

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

中国京津冀地区电力消费与经济增长（英文）

近年来,经济增长与电力消费之间的因果关系受到越来越多的关注。本文利用单位根检验,Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了北京-天津-河北地区1982-2008年期间电力消费与经济增长之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,北京、天津和河北三区的电力消费与经济增长的时间序列都是一阶平稳的。Johansen协整检验的结果表明,在河北和天津,电力消费和经济增长之间存在着协整关系,而在北京,电力消费和经济增长之间则不存在协整关系。我们发现,三个地区均存在着从电力消费到经济增长方向的因果关系,而从经济增长到电力消费方向的因果关系只存在于河北和北京。这意味着,在河北和北京,电力消费的增长将直接影响经济的增长,同时经济增长也将进一步刺激电力消费;但是在天津,电力消费的增加可以直接影响经济的增长,而经济增长则不能影响电力消费。本研究对于发展循环经济和构建资源节约型社会具有重要意义。     

基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%~5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对...     

中国能源消费碳排放的空间计量分析(英文)

Based on energy consumption data of each region in China from 1997 to 2009 and using ArcGIS9.3 and GeoDA9.5 as technical support,this paper made a preliminary study on the changing trend of spatial pattern at regional level of carbon emissions from energy con-sumption,spatial autocorrelation analysis of carbon emissions,spatial regression analysis between carbon emissions and their influencing factors.The analyzed results are shown as follows.(1) Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased more than 148% from 1997 to 2009 but the spatial pattern of high and low emission regions did not change greatly.(2) The global spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in-creased from 1997 to 2009,the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there exists a "polarization" phenomenon,the centre of "High-High" agglomeration did not change greatly but expanded currently,the centre of "Low-Low" agglomeration also did not change greatly but narrowed currently.(3) The spatial regression analysis showed that carbon emissions from energy consumption has a close relationship with GDP and population,R-squared rate of the spatial regression between carbon emissions and GDP is higher than that between carbon emissions and population.The contribution of population to carbon emissions in-creased but the contribution of GDP decreased from 1997 to 2009.The carbon emissions spillover effect was aggravated from 1997 to 2009 due to both the increase of GDP and population,so GDP and population were the two main factors which had strengthened the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions.     

森林砍伐、气候变化与农业可持续性：综述（英文）

本研究通过总结相关文献探讨了森林砍伐与农业之间的关系,并评估了气候变化对其潜在影响。选择具有重要生态意义的西高止山区作为研究对象,通过整理各个研究主题下的相关结果,我们详细探讨了包括森林砍伐的根本原因,森林土地转化为农业用途,农业、森林砍伐与气候变化之间的关系,气候驱动的农业脆弱性以及如何在保护森林与发展农业之间取得平衡。研究发现,农业的转变已经成为引发森林砍伐的主要原因;气候变化对农业的主要影响体现在作物产量的下降。印度的干旱和亚热带地区对气候变化的敏感性较高,这很可能是由于印度的热带森林遭受了较严重的砍伐。西高止山区联合森林规划和管理区域的树木密度较高,这为剩余土地用于非森林用途（如农业）创造了潜在的机会。     

中国经济“新三步走”战略下人均碳排放预测（英文）

在中国经济发展"新三步走"战略背景下,本文采用逆向追踪法,以石油、煤炭、天然气三种主要一次能源消耗为研究对象,消除在能源转化过程中因地区科技水平不同造成的影响,通过改进IPAT模型,对2050年前中国人均碳排放在三种经济发展情境假设下进行分析预测。结果表明:中国人均碳排放峰值随经济发展情境不同将分别在2020和2030年出现,人均碳排放量将达到2.0127-2.6791 t;峰值出现前人均碳排放量将以每年2.25%-3.40%的速度增长,之后会以每年1.33%-1.78%的速度降低。至2050年,人均碳排放量将减少为1.3147-1.8817 t。本研究为中国未来碳排放政策的制定以及国际碳排放权限的划定提供了方法与数据支持。     

气候变化背景下红火蚁在中国的潜在分布区变化（英文）

The red imported fire ant(RIFA, Solenopsis invicta), a notorious invasive insect, has received considerable attention owing to its impacts on native biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. Under global warming, the inhabitable area of the RIFA may be enlarged. However, few studies have focused on the potential range expansion of the RIFA in East Asia. Using a process-based physiological model, we simulated the potential range of the RIFA in China based on gridded temperature datasets for the current(2004–2012) and future(2090–2100) climates under Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It was found that the southeastern part of China(below 32°N) is suitable for RIFA proliferation. The present distribution area of the RIFA corresponds well with the potential range simulated by the model. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 warming scenarios, the inhabitable area of the RIFA along the northern boundary would on average extend 101.3±85.7(mean±SD) and 701.2±156.9 km, respectively, by the end of the 21 st century. Therefore, future climate change would significantly affect the inhabitable area of the RIFA. Our results provide the basis for local quarantine officials to curtail accidental introductions of this insect, especially in the certain and possible infestation zones.     

黑色还是绿色?低碳经济目标下的中国经济增长方式（英文）

碳排放控制与经济增长的双重挑战使中国经济增长方式选择成为令人关注的热点问题。从经济规模与碳排放量的关系来看,经济增长呈现出绿色增长、棕色增长和黑色增长等三种方式。本文利用1971-2010年中国碳排放与经济增长时间序列数据和数理分析方法,分析了中国近40年经济增长方式的演变。其中,1971-1977年总体为黑色增长,1978-2001年总体为棕色增长,2002-2004年间为黑色增长,2005-2010年又进入棕色增长阶段,中国经济增长方式转变和绿色增长目标仍有待努力。依据碳排放量与经济增长的Granger因果检验结果,短期内,中国经济增长与碳排放互为因果,经济粗放型增长特征显著;但从长期看来,经济增长并不是碳排放的原因。经济增长速度与碳排放强度下降之间的关系要求中国应权衡好经济增长与碳减排目标的实现。对此,本文认为中国应积极参与国际碳减排,并加快技术创新、要素创新、管理创新和市场创新,通过创新驱动实现经济增长方式的转变。     

中国典型省(区)能源消费碳排放比较降解分析——以江苏、河南、内蒙古为例（英文）

准确查清典型省份能源消费碳排放的实际情况及其碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,是实现我国碳减排目标的关键。本文采用扩展的LMDI模型对来自中国东、中和西部地区三个典型省(区)——江苏、河南和内蒙古的碳排放增长进行了比较分解。结果表明:(1)1996–2017年,3个省(区)的能源消费碳排放变化呈上升趋势,但各省(区)之间存在明显差异。(2)各驱动因素对碳排放的影响在不同省份和不同经济发展期明显不同。经济增长对各省碳排放变化的正向贡献最大(1996–2017年,河南、江苏、内蒙古三省(区)经济发展对碳排放增长的贡献分别为307.19%、205.08%和161.26%);其次是城镇化和人口规模,但对碳排放增长的贡献远小于经济增长。(3)除"十五"规划期外,能源强度在促进3省(区)碳减排方面发挥了主导作用,其次是能源结构。在所有抑制碳排放增长的因素中,农村人口比例的贡献最小。此外,城乡居民人均能源消费对碳排放的影响在不同省份(区)和不同经济发展阶段均表现出相对较小的影响和两面性,但在推动省域碳排放的变化方面开始起着越来越重要的作用(如1996–2017年,江苏省的居民能源消费对碳排放增长的贡献率超过7.9%,其中城镇居民人均能源消费的贡献率大于3.8%)。鉴于此,建议政策制定者应根据东、中、西部地区的碳排放省情和影响碳排放的关键因素,制定有针对性的减排措施。     

中国可持续发展研究进展（英文）

Sustainable development has always been a hotspot in Chinese geographical research. Herein, we conduct a systematic statistical analysis of the contribution of Chinese geographers to sustainable development research using bibliometric methods. Based on the review of a vast amount of literature, we identify the main research teams, research funding sources, journals, and key research fields. The findings are as follows:(1) the resources and environmental institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have a significant influence on sustainable development research;(2) China's central government foundations(the National Natural Science Foundation of China and National Social Sciences Fund) are the main research funding sources;(3) most of the highly cited articles are published in journals sponsored by the Geographical Society of China; and(4) sustainable development theory and its research areas are being constantly enriched and perfected. Based on the statistics of keywords, the theory, research methods, research regional scales, and key research areas are summarized and expounded.     

中国工业经济转型过程中能源消费与碳排放时空特征研究

就近30 a来中国工业经济转型过程中能源消费与碳排放的关联变化进行了分析,结果表明,工业部门能源消费的持续增长是中国能源消费总量增长与碳排放量增长的主要驱动因子;工业碳排放总量增长快速,但工业碳排放密集度持续降低;工业部门中制造业碳排放量最大,平均约占工业部门碳排放总量的60%,降低传统制造业能源消费、提高能源利用效率是推动节能减排政策实施和地方行动响应的关键环节;地区工业能源高消费地区集中分布于中国环渤海地区,能源较高消费地区主要集中于中国中部地区和东部经济发达地区,能源中等消费地区主要集中于中国西部地区,而能源低消费地区集中于西部经济落后地区;中国区域工业碳排放总量除受到本地工业能源消费量的直接影响外,还受到各地能源消费结构的影响,值得注意的是,较高碳排放地区空间布局趋于"孤岛"分布格局,低碳排放地区的数量也逐渐增加。     

中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量(英文)

The sustainable development has been seriously challenged by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a developing country, China promised to reduce 40%–45% below the level of the year 2005 on its carbon intensity by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society and economy at the national scale, but also the action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction at the provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spatiotemporal dynamics and dominating factors of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption in 1997–2010. The aim is to provide scientific basis for policy making on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China's carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt from 1997 to 2010, with an annual growth rate of 7.15%, which was much lower than that of GDP(11.72%). Secondly, the trend of Moran's I indicated that China's carbon intensity has a growing spatial agglomeration at the provincial scale. The provinces with either high or low values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to spatial panel econometric model, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the dominating factors shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, China should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, optimize energy and industrial structure, choose the low-carbon urbanization approach and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.     

生态承载力研究进展:内涵、评估方法与热点领域（英文）

近年来,全球城镇化的迅猛发展和经济的快速增长,导致土地退化等生态环境日益严重,促使人们意识到生态环境保护和生态文明建设对可持续发展的基础性作用。生态承载力成为了评估可持续发展的重要方法与研究生态环境问题的重要工具。本文在梳理相关文献的基础上,总结和概括了生态承载力的内涵、主要评估方法以及热点研究领域,分析了生态承载力研究的不足,展望了生态承载力研究的发展趋势。在内涵上,主要从环境变化、人类对于生态系统影响和生态系统整体承载三个视角对生态承载力内涵进行了梳理;在主要评估方法上,按内涵界定的三个视角对生态足迹法、基于生态系统服务的方法、净初级生产力法、状态空间法、能值生态足迹法、系统动力学方法、耦合模型进行了分类,对比分析了不同评估方法的优劣及适用条件;生态承载力的研究领域随着研究地深入逐渐渗透到土地、流域、生态脆弱区、旅游和城市综合系统等领域之中。目前,生态承载力的研究还存在着缺乏适用于较大尺度的指标阈值的厘定标准、动态监测及预警研究不够深入、科技条件等驱动因素考虑不全面等不足。未来,大尺度跨境区域及生态脆弱区的生态承载力评估、生态预警平台的构建以及生态承载力与区域主导性产业的一致性评估等方面可能成生态承载力研究的新发展方向。     

中国产业地理研究进展（英文）

The expansion and upgrading of Chinese industries have accompanied with the spatial restructuring process across the country. This paper provides a literature review on China's industrial geography, paying special attention to industrial agglomeration and industrial clusters. The increasing industrial agglomeration and development of industrial clusters have been the prominent characteristics of dynamics of industrial landscape in China. The major driving forces of China's industrial geography include economic globalization, decentralization and regional competition and rebuilding of regional advantages. This paper concludes with a discussion of future research focus.     

中国数字地形学研究进展（英文）

Geomorphometry,the science of digital terrain analysis(DTA),is an important focus of research in both geomorphology and geographical information science(GIS).Given that 70% of China is mountainous,geomorphological research is popular among Chinese scholars,and the development of GIS over the last 30 years has led to significant advances in geomorphometric research.In this paper,we review Chinese progress in geomorphometry based on the published literature.There are three major areas of progress:digital terrain modelling methods,DTA methods,and applications of digital terrain models(DTMs).First,traditional vector-and raster-based terrain modelling methods,including the assessment of uncertainty,have received widespread attention.New terrain modelling methods such as unified raster and vector,high-fidelity,and real-time dynamic geographical scene modelling have also attracted research attention and are now a major focus of digital terrain modelling research.Second,in addition to the popular DTA methods based on topographical derivatives,geomorphological features,and hydrological factors extracted from DTMs,DTA methods have been extended to include analyses of the structure of underlying strata,ocean surface features and even socioeconomic spatial structures.Third,DTMs have been applied to fields including global climate change,analysis of various typical regions,lunar surface and other related fields.Clearly,Chinese scholars have made significant progress in geomorphometry.Chinese scholars have had the greatest international impact in areas including high-fidelity digital terrain modelling and DTM-based regional geomorphological analysis,particularly in the Loess Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau regions.