河北平原冬小麦播种面积收缩对农业水资源消耗的影响(英文)

This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of cropping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calculated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1) The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×104ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2) The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%–30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 mm. 3) The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×108m3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.     

Impact of the shrinking winter wheat sown area on agricultural water consumption in the Hebei Plain简

This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of crop- ping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calcu- lated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1） The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×10^4 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Bei- jing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2） The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 ram. 3） The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×10^8 m^3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.     

耕地撂荒研究进展与展望（英文）

Since the 1950 s, noteworthy farmland abandonment has been occurring in many developed countries and some developing countries. This global land use phenomenon has fundamentally altered extensive rural landscapes. A review of global farmland abandonment under the headings of "land use change – driving mechanisms – impacts and consequences – policy responses" found the following:(1) Farmland abandonment has occurred primarily in developed countries in Europe and North America, but the extent of abandonment has varied significantly.(2) Changing socio-economic factors were the primary driving forces for the farmland abandonment. And land marginalization was the fundamental cause, which was due to the drastic increase of farming opportunity cost, while the direct factor for abandonment was the shrink of agricultural labor forces.(3) Whether to abandon, to what extent and its spatial distributions were finally dependent on integrated effect from the physical conditions, laborer attributes, farming and regional socio-economic conditions at the village, household and parcel scales. With the exception of Eastern Europe, farmland abandonment was more likely to occur in mountainous and hilly areas, due to their unfavorable farming conditions.(4) A study of farmland abandonment should focus on its ecological and environmental effects, while which is more positive or more negative are still in dispute.(5) Increasing agricultural subsidies will be conductive to slowing the rate of farmland abandonment, but this is not the only measure that needs to be implemented. Due to China's rapid urbanization, there is a high probability that the rate of abandonment will increase in the near future. However, very little research has focused on this rapid land-use trend in China, and, as a result, there is an inadequate understanding of the dynamic mechanisms and consequences of this phenomenon. This paper concludes by suggesting some future directions for further research in China. These directions include monitoring regional and national abandonment dynamics, analyzing trends, assessing the risks and socio-economic effects of farmland abandonment, and informing policy making.     

1980–2011年中国农作物种植结构时空变化（英文）

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of cropping systems is very important for agricultural policymaking and food security assessment,and can provide a basis for national policies regarding cropping systems adjustment and agricultural adaptation to climate change.With rapid development of society and the economy,China's cropping structure has profoundly changed since the reform and opening up in 1978,but there has been no systematic investigation of the pattern,process and characteristics of these changes.In view of this,a crop area database for China was acquired and compiled at the county level for the period 1980–2011,and linear regression and spatial analysis were employed to investigate the cropping structure type and cropping proportion changes at the national level.This research had three main findings:(1) China's cropping structure has undergone significant changes since 2002;the richness of cropping structure types has increased significantly and a diversified-type structure has gradually replaced the single types.The single-crop types—dominated by rice,wheat or maize—declined,affected by the combination of these three major food crops in mixed plantings and conversion of some of their planting area to other crops.(2) In the top 10 types,82.7% of the county-level cropping structure was rice,wheat,maize and their combinations in 1980;however,this proportion decreased to 50.7% in 2011,indicating an adjustment period of China's cropping structure.Spatial analysis showed that 63.8% of China's counties adjusted their cropping structure,with the general change toward reducing the main food types and increasing fruits and vegetables during 1980–2011.(3) At the national level,the grain-planting pattern dominated by rice shifted to coexistence of rice,wheat and maize during this period.There were significant decreasing trends for 47% of rice,61% of wheat and 29.6% of maize cropping counties.The pattern of maize cropping had the most significant change,with the maize proportion decreasing in the zone from northeastern to southwestern China during this period.Cities and their surroundings were hotspots for cropping structural adjustment.Urbanization has significantly changed cropping structure,with most of these regions showing rapid increases in the proportion of fruit and vegetables.Our research suggests that the policy of cropping structural adjustment needs to consider geographical characteristics and spatial planning of cropping systems.In this way,the future direction of cropping structural adjustment will be appropriate and scientifically based,such as where there is a need to maintain or increase rice and wheat cropping,increase soybean and decrease maize,and increase the supply of fruit and vegetables.     

1949–2014年中国三种主要作物的地理重心时空迁移分析（英文）

Spatial distribution changes in major crops can reveal important information about cropping systems.Here,a new centroid method that applies physics and mathematics to spatial pattern analysis in agriculture is proposed to quantitatively describe the historical centroids of rice,maize and wheat in China from 1949 to 2014.The geographical centroids of the rice area moved 413.39 km in a 34.32° northeasterly(latitude 3.08°N,longitude 2.10°E) direction at a speed of 6.36 km/year from central Hunan province to Hubei province,while the geographical centroids of rice production moved 509.26 km in the direction of 45.44° northeasterly(latitude 3.22°N,longitude 3.27°E) at a speed of 7.83 km/year from central Hunan province to Henan province.The geographical centroids of the maize area and production moved 307.15 km in the direction of 34.33° northeasterly(latitude 2.29°N,longitude 1.56°E) and 308.16 km in the direction of 30.79° northeasterly(latitude 2.39°N,longitude 1.42°E),respectively.However,the geographical centroids of the wheat area and production were randomly distributed along the border of Shanxi and Henan provinces.We divided the wheat into spring wheat and winter wheat and found that the geographical centroids of the spring wheat area and production were distributed within Inner Mongolia,while the geographical centroids of winter wheat were distributed in Shanxi and Henan provinces.We found that the hotspots of crop cultivation area and production do not always change concordantly at a larger,regional scale,suggesting that the changing amplitude and rate of each crops' yield differ between different regions in China.Thus,relevant adaptation measures should be taken at a regional level to prevent production damage in those with increasing area but decreasing production.     

中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析(英文)

The aim of this study is to establish several important factors representing land use intensification in cultivated land(denoted by CII), using a multi-dimensional approach to achieve realistic and practical cultivated land use policies in China. For this reason, the theoretical framework was first built to explain the changes of land use intensification in the cultivated land, and then the variables and index were further developed for the purpose of characterizing the dynamic trends and driving forces of the land use intensification in the cultivated land at the provincial level. The study results indicate that the extent of CII significantly increased during the period of 1996 to 2008, due to the extensive use of fertilizers, machinery and pesticide, increased labor and capital input, and intensified land use. Moreover, the principal component regression results show that the productivity of cultivated land, economic benefits of cultivated land, labor productivity, and land use conversion are the main factors affecting the village development. The first three factors play a positive role, while the last one has a negative effect on the land use intensification in the cultivated land. According to these results, the main policies for sustainable intensification in cultivated land are proposed. First, the sustainable pathways for intensification should be adopted to reduce the unsustainable uses of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, etc. Second, the conditions for agricultural production should be further improved to increase the cultivated land productivity. Third, it is very necessary and helpful for improving labor productivity and land use efficiency from the viewpoint of accelerated the cultivated land circulation. The last step is to positively affect the production activities of peasants by means of reforming the subsidy standards.     

华北平原2002年和2012年农业土地利用变化（英文）

Based on the MODIS NDVI data and Landsat TM/ETM data of 2002 and 2012, this paper extracts the planting area of winter wheat–summer maize, single spring maize, cotton and forest/fruit trees, vegetable and paddy, and made the agricultural land use map of the North China Plain(NCP). Agricultural land use area accounted for 63.32% compared to the total area of the NCP in 2002. And it increased to 65.66% in 2012, which mainly caused by the vegetables and forest/fruit trees increasing. Planting areas of winter wheat–summer maize, cotton, single spring maize, forest/fruit trees, vegetables and paddy were 5031.21×10~3, 865.90×10~3, 1226.10×10~3, 1271.17×10~3, 648.02×10~3, 216.51×10~3 ha in 2012. Rank of changes was: vegetables(+45%) forest/fruit trees(+27.4%) paddy(–23.7%) cotton(–20.4%) single spring maize(+17.3%) winter wheat–summer maize(–0.6%). In developed region like Beijing and Tianjin, planting area of crops with high economic benefit(such as fruit trees and vegetables) increased significantly. Government policies for groundwater protection caused obvious decline of winter wheat cultivation in Hebei Province. Cotton planting in Shandong Province decreased more than 200,000 ha during 2002–2012. The data products will be published in the website: http://hydro.sjziam.ac.cn/Default.aspx. To clarify the agricultural land use in the NCP will be very helpful for the regional agricultural water consumption research, which is the serious problem in the NCP.     

Remote sensing monitoring on regional crop water productivity in the Haihe River Basin

Crop water productivity （CWP） agricultural development in water scarcity is one of the important indicators for sustainable area. There is serious conflict between water sup- ply and requirement in the Haihe River Basin. CWP of winter wheat and summer maize from 2003 to 2007 in the Haihe River Basin is estimated based on large-scale evapotranspiration （ET） and crop yield obtained by remote sensing technology. Spatial and temporal distribution of CWP of winter wheat and summer maize is investigated in this study. Results show that CWP of winter wheat in most parts of the study area varies from 1.02 kg/m3 to 1.53 kg/m3, and CWP of summer maize varies from 1.31 kg/m3 to 2.03 kg/m3. Multi-year averaged CWP of winter wheat and summer maize in the study area is about 1.19 kg/m3 and 1.59 kg/m3. CWP results show certain promotion potential to alleviate the water shortage in the Haihe River Basin. Correlation analysis of CWP, crop yield and ET shows that there is great potential for crop yield promotion without the growth in irrigation water. Large-scale CWP estimated by remote sensing technology in this study shows spatial distribution features, which could be used to real-time agricultural water resource management combined with crop yield and ET.     

近30年中国东北地区玉米种植体系的时空动态分析(英文)

Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model(SPAM) has been developed for presenting spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980–2010. The simulated results indicated that(1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48°N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation(less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation(mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m);(2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, especially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region;(3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.     

Quantitative measuring and influencing mechanism of urban and rural land intensive use in China

Land use issue is an important constraining force to limit economic sustainable development of China. Urban and rural rapid expansion depletes valued land resources under the background of rapid urbanization. An extensive use pattern might cause a serious waste of land resources. The study on influencing mechanism of land intensive use （LIU） in China at the county level is a key tool for effective LIU practice and policy-making. This paper uses OLS model, Spatial Panel Lagged model and Spatial Panel Error model to quantitatively analyze the influencing mechanisms of five class factors and 17 variables supported by GIS （Geographic Information System） and MATLAB. And a comprehensive data set was devel- oped including physical geography and socio-economic information of 2286 counties. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal pattern of LIU has discussed by means of GIS. The results show that Spatial Panel Data models are slightly superior to OLS model in terms of signifi- cance and confidence level. Regression results of these models indicate that industrialization, urbanization, economic development level, location, transportation and policy have significant impact on LIU of counties. The variables of physical geography are less significant than socio-economic variables. An ignored variable of historical factor, however, became the best significant factor. In the future, the LIU at the county level should take advantage of the new situation by enhancing favorable factors and reducing disadvantageous ones, which can be acquired by improving the entire level and quality of industrialization and urbanization. We argued that an efficient and complete land market and operating system should be built to reflect market-oriented activities at the first place, then, differential LIU regulation policies and measurements should be optimized according to regional differences. In the meantime, we should pay close attention to the carrying capacity of local resources and environments when conducting LIU practices.     

南方水稻复种指数变化对国家粮食产能的影响及其政策启示（英文）

Changes in rice production in Southern China are crucial to national food security. This study employed Landsat images to map the distributions of paddy rice-cropping systems in Southern China in 1990 and 2015. The impact of rice multiple cropping index changes on grain production capacity was then evaluated. Three important results were obtained for the 1990 to 2015 study period. First, the multiple cropping index for rice decreased from 148.3% to 129.3%, and 253.16×10~4 ha of land area was converted from double-cropping to single-cropping rice, termed "double to single". The area with the most dramatic changes is in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. The rice-cropping system distribution in Southern China showed a change from north to south with double-cropping rice shrinking and single-cropping rice expanding. Second, the "double to single" conversion led to a reduction of 6.1% and 2.6% in rice and grain production, respectively. Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, located in the main rice producing areas, and Zhejiang, which has shown better economic development, exhibited large reductions in rice production due to the "double to single" conversion, all exceeding 13%. Third, the grain production capacity of converted "double to single" paddy fields is equivalent to that of 223.3 × 10~4 ha of newly reclaimed cultivated land, which is 54% of the total newly cultivated land reclaimed through the 2001–2015 land consolidation project. It is also 1.7 times the target goal for newly cultivated land in the national land consolidation plan for 2016–2020. Making full use of the converted "double to single" paddy fields can save 167.44 billion yuan in newly reclaimed cultivated land costs. Therefore, instead of pursuing low-quality new arable land, it is better to make full use of the existing high-quality arable land. Based on these results, the government should change the assessment method for cultivated land balance, and incorporate the sown area increased by improving the multiple cropping index into the cultivated land compensation indicator.     

美丽中国与国土空间规划关系的地理学思考

The concept of‘Beautiful China'is a new goal of ecological construction in the new era of socialism and aims to meet the needs of people as they strive for a better life.National land spatial planning is one major component of the Chinese state's overall planning for various spatial types.The concept of‘Beautiful China'is thus a leading goal of Chinese development in the second centenary.The background of this concept aims for‘ecological beauty'as well as the combined beauty of‘economy-politics-culture-society-ecology.'The construction of‘Beautiful China'therefore necessitates a differentiated evaluation index system that is built on the basis of local conditions.This concept is intimately related to land spatial planning and the idea of Beautiful China guides an important direction for this planning which itself provides an important mechanism and spatial guarantee for construction.The establishment of land spatial planning nevertheless needs to strengthen further discussion of the regional system of human-land relationship,point axis system,main functional division,sustainable development,resources and environmental carrying capacity as well as new urbanization,and the rural multi-system.The aim of this paper is to summarize current thinking in land spatial planning,scientifically analyze the natural geographical conditions,the socioeconomic development,the interrelationship of the land space,plan the goal,vision and path of land space,encourage the public to participate in and carry out dynamic evaluation,build an intelligent system platform for land and spatial planning to realize the goal of‘Beautiful China'from a geographical perspective.And they can also present key ideas relating to the compilation and implementation of land spatial planning.     

中国山区农村土地利用转型及其对土地整治的政策启示（英文）

The cultivation of mountainous land results in water loss and soil erosion. With rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, labor emigration relieves the cultivation of mountainous areas in regions with high poverty and leads to a significant land use transition. This research built an analysis framework for "land use transition – driving mechanism – effects –responses" for mountainous areas of China undergoing land use transition and then proposed the direction of mountainous land consolidation. The results showed that the turning point of land use morphology was the core of rural land use transition in mountainous areas. The expansion of cropland and the contraction of forestland have transitioned to the abandonment of cropland and the expansion of forestland; this transition was the main characteristic of the dominant land use change. Land marginalization and land ecological functional recovery were the main characteristics of the recessive land use transition in mountainous areas. Socioeconomic factors were the primary driving forces during land use transition in mountainous areas, with labor emigration being the most direct force. The rising costs of farming and the challenging living conditions causing labor emigration were fundamental driving forces. Rural land use transition in mountainous areas reduced the vulnerability of the ecological function of land ecosystems. The advantages and disadvantages of the socioeconomic effects should focus on rural development of mountainous areas as well as the livelihood of farmers; this should be further supported by empirical and quantitative research. Rural land use transition of mountainous areas improves natural restoration and is related to socioeconomic development. Rural land consolidation of mountainous areas should conform to land use transition,with the goal of shifting from the increase of cultivated land to the synergies of ecological and environmental protection.     

Land consolidation: An indispensable way of spatial restructuring in rural China1简

The implementation of new type industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization strategies lacks of a major hand grip and spatial supporting platform, due to long-term existed ＂dual-track＂ structure of rural-urban development in China as well as un- stable rural development institution and mechanism. It is necessary to restructure rural pro- duction, living and ecological space by carrying out land consolidation, so as to establish a new platform for building new countryside and realizing urban-rural integration development in China. This paper develops the concept and connotation of rural spatial restructuring. Basing on the effects analysis of industrialization and urbanization on rural production, living and ecological space, the mechanism of pushing forward rural spatial restructuring by carry- ing out land consolidation is probed. A conceptualization of the models of rural production, living and ecological spatial restructuring is analyzed combining with agricultural land con- solidation, hollowed villages consolidation and industrial and mining land consolidation. Fi- nally, the author argues that a ＂bottom-up＂ restructuring strategy accompanied by a few ＂top-down＂ elements is helpful for smoothly pushing forward rural spatial restructuring in China. In addition, the optimization and restructuring of rural production, living and ecological space will rely on the innovations of regional engineering technology, policy and mechanism, and mode of rural land consolidation, and more attentions should be paid to rural space, the foundation base and platform for realizing urban-rural integration development.     

Extent and spatial distribution of terrace abandonment in China

Driven by urbanization and industrialization, arable land in hilly and mountainous regions of China is gradually becoming marginalized, with the extent of arable land abandonment rapidly expanding from poor-quality sloping arable land to high-quality terraces. The abandonment of large-scale terraces will lead to a series of socio-economic and ecological effects. A national sample survey was used to investigate the extent and spatial distribution of terrace abandonment in China, and a total of 56...     

Relationship analysis between livelihood assets and livelihood strategies: A Heihe River Basin example

The security and quality of the livelihood of farmers is of paramount concern in rural areas of China. Livelihood stability would force the related polity to act coordinately while eradicating poverty and promoting resource sustainability. For this study, the livelihood approach was used as a framework of analysis that is based upon Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the core of which is livelihood assets. Livelihood capitals provide substantial contributions to the well-being of numerous rural dwellers. However, the level and degree of reliance on livelihood capital differ across households. Factors that contribute to the economic reliance of households on a particular economic activity in general and on livelihood capital in particular may vary depending upon the type of resource endowment, household demographic, and economic characteristic as well as exogenous factors such as markets, prices, policies, and technologies. This study identifies factors that influence a household’s livelihood strategy choice with a particular focus on livelihood assets. The study applies a preliminary investigation concerning the relationship between livelihood assets and livelihood strategies, that is, the allocation of assets. Environmentally augmented household livelihood assets were collected from 300 sample households within the Heihe River Basin. Results show that physical assets possess a maximum value (0.609) for farmers and human assets possess a relatively high value (0.516) followed by social assets (0.354). Besides, financial and natural assets possess relatively low values (0.286 and 0.241, respectively). An increment of one unit should reduce the occurrence of choosing non-agricultural activities for natural capital while an increment of one unit should increase the occurrence of choosing non-agricultural activities for financial capital, while other variables remain constant. Governments, therefore, should enhance funding and technological support to achieve livelihood diversity and strengthen the facility of farmers by way of establishing relevant polity. It would enable farmers and provide themselves with the ability and asset reserves to transition from agricultural production to secondary and tertiary industries in order to improve the livelihood of farmers overall.     

Impact of farmer households’ livelihood assets on their options of economic compensation patterns for cultivated land protection简

With rapid urbanization and the socio-economic transformation, cultivated land protection has gradually become a major concern in China. The economic compensation plays a crucial role in promoting cultivated land protection and improving the utilization ratio of cultivated land. Farmer household＇s satisfaction has a great influence on the effectiveness of compensation. Therefore, households＇ willingness to select the economic compensation pattern for cultivated land protection has been considered and re-examined. By employing Participatory Rural Appraisal method （PRA）, 3 villages and 392 households were investigated and sampled in mesa and hilly areas of Chongqing. Then a quantitative analysis framework of household livelihood hexagon has been developed to quantify the livelihood assets of differ- ent farmer households. Finally, the Gray Relation Model and Probit Regression Model have been employed to explore the coupling relationship between the household livelihood assets and their compensation pattern options. The results show that there are both qualitative and spatial heterogeneity in household livelihood assets. We found that the inequality of livelihood assets is evident for five household types. There is a spatial trend that the higher the eleva- tion, the less livelihood assets are. In addition, their options of economic compensation pat- tern vary from Chengdu Pattern to Foshan Pattern due to their difference in livelihood assets and difference in location. In detail, there is a coupling relationship between household live- lihood assets and their compensation pattern; negative correlation is observed between natural assets value and household pattern options, while the other livelihood assets have positive impacts on compensation pattern in varying degrees, which from the top are psy- chological assets, human assets, physical assets, financial assets, and social assets respec- tively. A conceptual compensation pattern system has been designed to meet the demands for farmer households mainly according to their shortage in livelihood assets. In addition, compensation method, compensation standard, the basis of compensation and the source of compensation funds have been proposed accordingly.     

基于国际谷物贸易的全球虚土流动与节约（英文）

With intense urbanization and sustained population growth, securing food production with limited land sources has increasingly become a pressing issue. Based on an analysis of international cereal(i.e., barley, buckwheat, maize, oats, rice, rye, sorghum, soybean, and wheat) trade and differences in yields of the cereal between export and import countries over the period of 2007 to 2011, we explore the great potential of land saving through the international cereal trade. By ‘land saving', we refer to the reduced global total of lands required to produce a necessary amount of cereal when cereal is exported from a country with relatively large yield of the cereal to a country with relatively small yield of the cereal. Our scenario analysis suggests that international cereal trade would help mitigate the shortage of domestic arable land for many island countries(e.g., Japan) and countries in the arid Middle East and North Africa(e.g., Syria and Morocco). Furthermore, international cereal trade has the potential to generate ‘land saving' of 50,092,284 ha of land per year, which is roughly the size of Spain. Drawing upon the definition of a similar concept – virtual water(Hoekstra and Hung 2002), we define virtual land as the area of land resources used for the production of goods. Through introducing the concept of virtual land, we believe land resources that are traditionally considered as stationary resources can flow with anthropogenic socioeconomic activities. The largest virtual-land flows( 3,000,000 ha/year) exist between the United States(US) to China, Brazil to China, the US to Japan, the US to Mexico, and Argentina to China. However, not all virtual-land flows necessarily result in land saving. Thus, more endeavors are needed to plan the virtual-land flows for a larger land saving at the global scale.     

黄淮海平原农区土地利用转型及其动力机制（英文）

Land use transition refers to changes in land use morphology, including dominant morphology and recessive morphology, of a particular region over a period of time driven by various factors. Recently, issues related to land use transition in China have attracted interest among a wide variety of researchers as well as government officials. This paper examines the patterns of land use transition and their dynamic mechanism in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000–2010. First, the spatio-temporal patterns of land use transition, their characteristics and the laws governing them were analyzed. Second, based on the established conceptual framework for analyzing the dynamic mechanism of land use transition, a spatial econometric regression analysis method was used to analyze the dynamic mechanism of the five types of major land use transition in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain at the county level. Land use pattern changes in the study area were characterized by an increase in construction land, water body and forested land, along with a decrease in farmland, unused land and grassland. The changes during 2000–2005 were much more significant than those during 2005–2010. In terms of factors affecting land use transitions, natural factors form the basis, and they have long-term effects. Socio-economic factors such as population and GDP, however, tend to determine the direction, structure, size and layout of land use transition over shorter time periods. Land law and policy factors play a mandatory guiding and restraining role in land use transitions, so as to improve the overall efficiency of land use. Land resource engineering is also an important tool to control land use transitions. In general, the five types of major land use transition were the result of the combined action of various physical, social and economic factors, of which traffic condition and location condition had the most significant effects, i.e. they were the common factors in all land use transitions. Understanding the spatio-temporal process of land use transitions and their dynamic mechanisms is an important foundation for utilizing land resources, protecting regional ecological environment and promoting sustainable regional socio-economic development.     

Adaptive evolution of the rural human–environment system in farming and pastoral areas of northern China from 1952–2017

The theory on the cyclic adaptation between society and ecosystems sheds new light on the evolution and internal structure of human–environment systems. This paper introduces the risk index(RI) and adaptation capacity index(ACI) to evaluate the rural human–environment system. An evaluation index system for the adaptability of rural human–environment systems is configured in the context of climate change and policy implementation. On this basis, the stages, features, dominant control factors, and evolution mechanism were examined vis-à-vis the adaptability of the rural human–environment system in Darhan Muminggan Joint Banner from 1952 to 2017. The main results are as follows:(1) The evolution of the rural human–environment system can be divided into three stages, namely, the reorganization and rapid development stage(1952–2002) with population, cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland increasing by 260%, 13%, 134% and 16.33%, respectively. The rapid to stable development stage(2003–2010) with population increasing by 2.8%; cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland decreasing by 2.3%, 13.6% and 10.7%, respectively. The stable to release stage(2011–2017) with population, cultivated land, livestock and degraded grassland decreasing by 2.6%, 0.2%, 10.6% and 3.8%, respectively.(2) With the passage of time, the ACI of the rural human–environment system first increased slightly(–0.016–0.031), followed by a slight decline(0.031–0.003), and culminating in a rapid increase(0.003–0.088). In terms of spatial patterns, adaptability is high in the middle, moderate in the north, and low in the south.(3) The evolution of adaptability in the rural human–environment system was mainly controlled by the per capita effective irrigation area(22.31%) and the per capita number of livestock(23.47%) from 1990 to 2000, the desertified area(25.06%) and the land use intensity(21.27%) from 2000 to 2005, and the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen(20.08%) and the per capita number of livestock(18.52%) from 2010 to 2007.(4) Under the effects of climate change and policy interventions, the cyclic adaptation of the rural human–environment system was propelled by the interactions between two kinds of subjects: farmers and herdsmen on the one hand and rural communities on the other hand. The interaction affects the adaptive behavior of the two kinds of subjects, which in turn drives the cyclic evolution of the system. As a result, the system structure and functions developed alternatively between coordinated and uncoordinated states. Small-scale adaptive behaviors of farmers and herdsmen have a profound impact on the evolution of the rural human–environment system.